Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[agastya]

Think its about that time where i take a 'break' from TMC....getting too hostile around here....I'll be back when we're close to $700-$800 range...that is where majority of the people are in a 'happier' place

This is a great buy signal (apart from the 200DMA level) - added a few more today, and will probably convert some shares into DITM leaps if the slide continues.

Off topic(and more of a keeping-myself-honest post to look back at), was in a video call with with mom - she kind of alluded to something that was a metaphor of what I was seeing with my TSLA net value dwindling. I will be fixing this soon, and hopefully will tie in with TSLA bouncing high from here.

 

[Singuy]

I think incorporating the exports into local sales takes more mental gymnastics than the other way around, personally.

Source (translated via Google): 【月度分析】2021年4月份全国乘用车市场分析

"The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in April reached 163,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 192.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 12.0%.
In April, the new energy passenger vehicle market diversified and the performance of large groups of new energy intensified. SAIC and GAC performed relatively strong. Companies with wholesale sales exceeding 10,000 vehicles include 30,602 SAIC-GM-Wuling, 25,845 Tesla China, 25,450 BYD, and 13,004 SAIC passenger vehicles.

In April, the export of new energy vehicles showed explosive growth. Tesla China exported 14,174 units, SAIC passenger cars exported 2,378 new energy vehicles, and AIWAYs exported 335 units. Other auto companies' new energy vehicle exports are also gaining momentum."

I thought the locals sales come from their dmv on registered cars? Since when did exports start mingling in this number?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Native speakers have said it includes exports, but I fully admit I don't know and I'm relying on their interpretation. Along with that, I personally don't trust Google translate for specific nuance.

If you read through the data report straight from China......it clearly states year to date China sales are 95,125......Now back out the China sales from Jan to March, and you get the 25k sales numbers. It's impossible for China to list out that year to date China sales of 95k unless the numbers are 25k China sales and 14k in exports in April

There's really nothing lost in translation there. It's a clear statement on year to date. That's the only way the numbers add up. I really do not understand why there's confusion around this.

 

[FireMedic]

I wanted to call E*TRADE to adjust my margin interest rate as recommended in a post here months ago. The poster referenced another brokerage that offers 1-3% interest rates which is far below what my native rate on my account is.

I’m at 10% margin on an account with less than $1 mil. Net acct value. (Edit) I believe they referenced interactive brokerage at below 2%

Anyone have a link to that post. Thanks in advance.

 

[lafrisbee]

Are Tesla possibly deliberately exporting some Chinese production because.... profits? I'm assuming average income in Europe is higher than china, so a car made in china and sold in china might not be as profitable as one made in china and sold in Europe) even after shipping+duties). We need rob maurer to do a deep dive on that!
Of course when Berlin is up and running, GF3 can go back to being pure china focus.

in other words: exports from china doesn't point to low china demand, it could just be the most profitable choice right now.

you left off the Carbon credits

 

[Singuy]

If you read through the data report straight from China......it clearly states year to date China sales are 95,125......Now back out the China sales from Jan to March, and you get the 25k sales numbers. It's impossible for China to list out that year to date China sales of 95k unless the numbers are 25k China sales and 14k in exports.

There's really nothing lost in translation there. It's a clear statement on year to date. That's the only way the numbers add up

If that 25k includes exports, then it cause double counting after EU numbers come out. This is not rocket science..don't know why there's so much confusion.

 

[capster]

Sure there are negatives, but I see this as a net gain. A lot of early Tesla buyers and even now skew to older people, simply due to economics. Doge and all the related memes are bringing in Gen Z, iGen (whatever they are called) to the Tesla fold, and whenever they can afford the $25k car that will be a huge market expansion. This could be Elon playing 4-D chess again with future demand.

Absolutely. I look at this whole crypto thing at a minimum as a form of advertising jujitsu: Tesla made headlines and made money off their Bitcoin trades, for example.

I get the emissions downsides to crypto, but think it may net out somewhat on the emissions side (e.g. by selling more EV’s) and, hopefully, has some long term strategic value. So, like I’ve said before, I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.

Also, I’m willing to let it ride as Elon and Tesla have proved their ecological chops and then some. Which is to say, it is important to resist stringent purity tests in movements otherwise there will be no one left in the tent.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Native speakers have said it includes exports, but I fully admit I don't know and I'm relying on their interpretation. Along with that, I personally don't trust Google translate for specific nuance.

I agree with respect to nuance and Google translate; however, there's a logical break between the two numbers separated by a paragraph. I appreciate and understand your caution - I think this board could use a little more of that sometimes. However, I think the simpler explanation continues to be that exports are not included in the delivery number. I am not claiming to be absolutely right by any means, but it's going to take some more compelling evidence to convince me to the contrary at this point.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

For anyone that wants to see the math. In the data report, I came across that exact wording/sentence saying year to date China sales are 95,125

https://twitter.com/x/status/1392110495042359301

 

[traxila]

Not that Dan Ives hasn't been wrong before, like the S&X numbers he had for Q1-2021 estimates, but thought one more data point is useful.
Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives notes softness in Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) China sales data for April.

Yet he goes with the 26K local and 14K export so he sounds confused in the end.

 

[Mike Smith]

Peter Rawlinson on CNBC just refused to confirm 2022 sales projections. All he was willing to say is that they're planning to deliver 577 cars this year. Exactly 577. Absolutely bizarre.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

If that 25k includes exports, then it cause double counting after EU numbers come out. This is not rocket science..don't know why there's so much confusion.

Not only that. It would also screw up Chinas numbers which I assume they use for everything from infrastructure to taxes and other budgeting that is made based on vehicle numbers in the country. It makes absolutly no sense to change the way they report to include exports.

But hey, if so Tesla should be able to use the same car to get credits in both China and the EU.

 

[henchman24]

If you read through the data report straight from China......it clearly states year to date China sales are 95,125......Now back out the China sales from Jan to March, and you get the 25k sales numbers. It's impossible for China to list out that year to date China sales of 95k unless the numbers are 25k China sales and 14k in exports in April

There's really nothing lost in translation there. It's a clear statement on year to date. That's the only way the numbers add up. I really do not understand why there's confusion around this.

My question lies in why are there Tesla bulls who are native speakers quoting this wrong? You'd think they are the ones who would be correcting this and getting it right. I hope you are right, and that would be an extremely bullish number.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I'll be back when we're close to $700-$800 range

see ya in July. or maybe next week. or ...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

My question lies in why are there Tesla bulls who are native speakers quoting this wrong? You'd think they are the ones who would be correcting this and getting it right. I hope you are right, and that would be an extremely bullish number.

Yeah I’ll admit.....I’m quite puzzled by Vincent. From what I’ve seen on his Twitter, sounds like some were messaging him and saying the number includes exports.......if I’m being honest I think there’s some bad actors trying to cause misinformation. We’ve seen some shady tactics already a few times in the past couple of months from bad actors in China. We’ve seen multiple reports from “sources” essentially making it seem like Tesla was in trouble with the Chinese government. When in reality, nothing ever materialized.

But math is math and numbers are numbers. The official report clearly states year to date sales of 95,125.....and the only way that number makes sense is if actual China sales were 25k in April

 

[Nocturnal]

no? come on you're joking, right?
I hope gasoline goes... "to da moon"!
all EV stocks will go with it... TSLA probably more than the others.
If gas doubles this Summer so will your TSLA.

That's what I said!

 

[Krugerrand]

Wow peeps, the discord, and I’m still 3 pages behind.

So was on my mountain with my mountain/backwoods/redneck contractor. I appreciated that he refrained from chawing tobacco during our meeting. Anyway, he tells me an uncle of his bought an early Model S. Uncle loves his car. We stand around chatting and admiring my Model 3 and I can tell he’s a little impressed I got it there considering the location and terrain. Then I pull out my phone (which only has one bar at the peak of the mountain - thankfully because Mom had to tell me her morning bacon wasn’t as crispy as she likes) and I show him a picture of CYBRTRCK.

Him: Oh, wow! (This is a lot of emotion from this guy, who is otherwise so even keel you might mistake him for dead.)
Me: 3 motors, 0-60 in 2.9, 500+ miles of range.
Him: *eyes almost fall out of his head and he lets out a whistle* No, sugar?
Me: No, sugar.
Him: *shakes his head* Well, that’s the way of the future, no doubt about it.

Relax. It’s all good.

 

[asburgers]

Wow peeps, the discord, and I’m still 3 pages behind.

So was on my mountain with my mountain/backwoods/redneck contractor. I appreciated that he refrained from chawing tobacco during our meeting. Anyway, he tells me an uncle of his bought an early Model S. Uncle loves his car. We stand around chatting and admiring my Model 3 and I can tell he’s a little impressed I got it there considering the location and terrain. Then I pull out my phone (which only has one bar at the peak of the mountain - thankfully because Mom had to tell me her morning bacon wasn’t as crispy as she likes) and I show him a picture of CYBRTRCK.

Him: Oh, wow! (This is a lot of emotion from this guy, who is otherwise so even keel you might mistake him for dead.)
Me: 3 motors, 0-60 in 2.9, 500+ miles of range.
Him: *eyes almost fall out of his head and he lets out a whistle* No, sugar?
Me: No, sugar.
Him: *shakes his head* Well, that’s the way of the future, no doubt about it.

Relax. It’s all good.

What discord? I want to hang out with you all while I lick my wounds.

 

[Singuy]

My question lies in why are there Tesla bulls who are native speakers quoting this wrong? You'd think they are the ones who would be correcting this and getting it right. I hope you are right, and that would be an extremely bullish number.

It's probably not them. It's that one "news" agency purposely spreading lies on Twitter. Hiw they confirmed and blah blah blah.

 

[henchman24]

Yeah I’ll admit.....I’m quite puzzled by Vincent. From what I’ve seen on his Twitter, sounds like some were messaging him and saying the number includes exports.......if I’m being honest I think there’s some bad actors trying to cause misinformation. We’ve seen some shady tactics already a few times in the past couple of months from bad actors in China. We’ve seen multiple reports from “sources” essentially making it seem like Tesla was in trouble with the Chinese government. When in reality, nothing ever materialized.

But math is math and numbers are numbers. The official report clearly states year to date sales of 95,125.....and the only way that number makes sense is if actual China sales were 25k in April

I don't know if it is bad actors, or people just jumping on information. I don't think Vincent or Ray have bad intentions and are just trying to get the information out as quickly as possible. I'd hope that if the ~40k number is correct, that they will issue corrections and explain the miss.