Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[PeterJA]

I can't figure out why folks here are acting like this 577 thing is new info?

I can't figure out why you can't share information without a little insult.

Clearly some folks here missed the info before. Is that really so difficult to figure out?

 

[Buckminster]

Q2 2021 about to win bragging rights!

Q1 2021: "I'm the champion, delivering a record 184,800 vehicles despite being traditionally the weakest Qtr of the year & with no Models S&X production"
Q2 2021: "Hold my beer"

View attachment 660982

Through the first 38 days of the quarter:
Q1 had 8 RoRO ships depart with a total of 21 loading days.
Q2 had 12 RoRo ships depart with a total of 28.9 loading days (a 38% increase over Q1)

Telsa has production and logistics humming !!

Edit to credit source of data: Franco Mossotto @FMossotto on Twitter

For those that have already seen this - thought you would want to see it again!

Some quick notes on President Biden's remarks on the economy:
- To prosecute ransomeware criminals
- Creating 500k jobs/month vs 60k jobs/month in the 3 months prior to his admin
- Trend is in the right direction for employment growth
- Economists predict yuge growth this year
- 34% adults are fully vaccinated now

- Steps to maintain progress
1. States and local gov can apply for relief from rescue plan;
2. Sending relief checks to restaurants/hospitalities;
3. Programs for employers to hire back laid off works part time without workers giving up unemployment benefits;
4. Provide help for people struggling with child care to help people get back to work - funds to allow expansion and availability of child care;
5. Anyone collecting unemployment who is offered a suitable job must take the job or lose benefits (with a few COVID19 exemptions)

Employers can step up:
1. Tax break to employers if they give workers paid time off for vaccinations
2. People who come back to work should be paid a decent wage after the last Congress relief of $1.4T

Yeah well the Queen opened parliament today. Her hat matched her coat.

Acutal production at Shanghai was probably a bit higher, due to the wave, perhaps by a few thousand. They are probably also continuing to ramp production squeezing a bit more out of the lines.

It looks like Q2 production will be 130k-140k in Shanghai and over 100k in Fremont (how much over depends on S/X production), this is higher than estimates I've seen.

For Q3 the new General Assembly line at Fremont should have some production, GA lines are reasonably easy to spool up, and GA 4 took only a few months from start of tent construction. Fremont should see full model S/X production. The 4 or 5 new buildings in Shanghai may start to see production in Q3, one is likely the design center another for stamping and another seems to have a casting area, probably limited production in Q3 with ramp continuing into Q4 and Q1 next year.

For Q4 there will be some Berlin and Austin production.

So my guess is:
Q1 : 184k
Q2 : 250k (35% QoQ) (140k Shanghai, 110k Fremont)
Q3 : 295k (18% QoQ) (150k Shanghai, 145k Fremont)
Q4 : 340k (15% QoQ) (160k Shanghai, 150k Fremont, 20k Austin, 10k Berlin)
giving a grand total for the year of 1,069k. That is for production, deliveries will be a few less as inventory in units, if not in days of production, will increase.

Tesla growing at such a rate that compound affect is within the year rather than over many years.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1392115274409709579

Serves you Americans right for using stupid gas. The rest of the world uses liquid petrol which comes on semis.

 

[StealthP3D]

First, cars are not moving on the line, at all (hence 577 seems bullish). Next, I didn't see a single welding robot (needed to assemble the hundreds if smaller pieces together). Manually, this is very time-consuming and costly, despite the appearance of a volume factory. I think some robots were told to do something for the video, seeing them all spinning and doing nothing, lol. And where is stamping in the video? Are they rolling sheet metal by hand?

577 cars is bullish? Whatcha' talkin' about? At one car every 10 minutes they can build all 577 in one week if they run three shifts!

Seriously though, I hope they succeed but the investor in me is not getting the warm fuzzies from some of the things Rawlings said. Particularly, the summer of 2023 when "Project Gravity" gets underway. I bet he wanted to call it "Project Anti-Gravity" but the lawyers nixed it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1392176462136938499

Sorry to spam about this issue more......but seems like this is the source of confusion about the April China numbers.......a chart from a Chinese social media source...not an official chart from CPCA. In fact in the CPCA report, there is nothing to indicate they are now including exports in their sales numbers.

Again, seems like smear/misinformation campaign from bad actors in China. Multiple social media accounts in China are referencing the same chart and saying it's official CPCA charts. Meanwhile you have official Chinese news outlets saying 39k total production. I'm honestly pretty disappointed in both Vincent and Ray. Not trying to call them out, but there's such a big discrepancy that if there's any doubt, they should take down their tweets. You even have Gary now and actual analysts using their numbers and issuing comments on them. If you're tweeting data or sales, it's on you to verify and do due diligence. I don't want to hear that you were told incorrectly. It took me all of 20-30 mins to read through the actual CPCA data report and realize that the numbers didn't add up if exports were now being included as sales.

Again the smoking gun here is the direct quote from the CPCA in the data report that states year to date sales in China are 95,125. No matter what number gymnastics you want to try, the only way that works out correctly is if the CPCA is tracking numbers exactly how they've been doing all year so far. Sales and exports are separate.

If they started to using local sales and exports together, they would then have to change the numbers for Jan, Feb, and March to accurately list year to date numbers, which means the number would be much higher than 95,125. So either Vincent and Ray aren't not doing their due diligence or China is committing the most blatant fraud in history (that would easily be exposed in a month and a half when Tesla releases quarterly numbers).......you decide


Edit: Btw, if anyone on here is on twitter or actually knows Ray or Vincent, they should reach out to them and point this out. It's a clear contradiction to their tweets and they're not acknowledging it (I'm not on Twitter)

 

[Krugerrand]

So I told my SO that I'm going to walk around now with my phone on speaker and talk loudly about my margin call.

She said she would wait in the car.

Can you imagine?

Loud and proud, that’s the way to live. Buy her something, she’ll get over the embarrassment.

 

[elasalle]

1st month of every quarter is generally when FUD bring up China, EU numbers.
SP seems resilient today.

NAS broke it's 100MA. Took all my remaining cash and added to index fund( can't pick individual). Time for some bottom feeding/falling knives.
Converted some short terms Calls(at loss) to LEAPS for more time.
tempted to exchange shares for calls, but didn't do so.

A year or so ago I used to dream of the day SP would hit ARK's bear case number of 600 (& that was before the split)

 

[oldTAVguy]

577 cars is bullish? Whatcha' talkin' about? At one car every 10 minutes they can build all 577 in one week if they run three shifts!

Seriously though, I hope they succeed but the investor in me is not getting the warm fuzzies from some of the things Rawlings said. Particularly, the summer of 2023 when "Project Gravity" gets underway. I bet he wanted to call it "Project Anti-Gravity" but the lawyers nixed it.

They got the plans from...

Nikola Corporation​

 

[henchman24]

Edit: Btw, if anyone on here is on twitter or actually knows Ray or Vincent, they should reach out to them and point this out. It's a clear contradiction to their tweets and they're not acknowledging it (I'm not on Twitter)

Ray has replied to a few tweets that he's waiting for confirmation (guessing a public report).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Ray has replied to a few tweets that he's waiting for confirmation (guessing a public report).

Yup saw that.......which means he should take down his other tweets. Simple as that. When there's any doubt, don't tweet sales/data

 

[Maitri982]

I

Peter Rawlinson on CNBC just refused to confirm 2022 sales projections. All he was willing to say is that they're planning to deliver 577 cars this year. Exactly 577. Absolutely bizarre.

stopped in lucid showroom in Miami. The guy said we are focused on quality, not quite quantity.

Lucid is not a competitopr for Tesla..end of story.

 

[henchman24]

Yup saw that.......which means he should take down his other tweets. Simple as that. When there's any doubt, don't tweet sales/data

I don't think he takes down tweets... he has his 40k one up and 25k one.

 

[larmor]

They got the plans from...

Nikola Corporation​

Its all downhill for them after this...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Also really starting to think the Model Y lines being down for 2 weeks being just made up FUD.....or a gross overexaggeration.

We go 11 days into the next month and not one peep out of this shutdown. Then on the same day we get CPCA numbers, there's a FUD article put out about the land purchase, charts put out that are not by CPCA, and a rumor comes out of nowhere saying lines were down for 2 weeks for the Y. Bear in mind, for production numbers to be 25k and not 39k, that means Model 3 lines would have had to have been down for at least a week as well.

Yeah..........I smell BS

 

[Paul_SF]

If you need some distraction from OTs:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1392204961824579585

 

[dhanson865]

Probably because out of the thousands of unique parts, there's enough to make 577 cars with them this year. Even tho they have 2000 windows and 4000 wipers, they only have 577 of ________ this year.

Like that chip shortage everyone keeps talking about. If Ford, GM, and Tesla can't get chips you have to know Lucid is way down the waiting list.

 

[Curt Renz]

Today TSLA held above its low of March 30th and its 200-day SMA (simple moving average). That’s welcome news technically, and would be even better tomorrow if it closes above its 150-day SMA.

Margin calls might have run their course today, and considering the two-day settlement period, the time to raise money for tax payments will soon close. Today may have been a good bet for the post-Q1 bottom.

 

[EVMeister]

Margin calls might have run their course today, and considering the two-day settlement period, the time to raise money for tax payments will soon close. Today may have been a good bet for the post-Q1 bottom.

But Curt, we demand certainty and celebratory music!

 

[Tslynk67]

I

stopped in lucid showroom in Miami. The guy said we are focused on quality, not quite quantity.

Lucid is not a competitopr for Tesla..end of story.

As I keep repeating to everyone that will listen, everyone that won't listen and my wife:

Tesla has no competitors. There is no "EV market". There is the replacement of all existing ICEv as they progressively get banned, starting in 2025.

There is only the "car market" and other EV's will be mostly be cannibalising ICEv sales from the same manufacturer

P.S. slow hand-clap for the MM's keeping it below $620 today, not sure why all the effort, but they managed it

 

[Tslynk67]

Also really starting to think the Model Y lines being down for 2 weeks being just made up FUD.....or a gross overexaggeration.

We go 11 days into the next month and not one peep out of this shutdown. Then on the same day we get CPCA numbers, there's a FUD article put out about the land purchase, charts put out that are not by CPCA, and a rumor comes out of nowhere saying lines were down for 2 weeks for the Y. Bear in mind, for production numbers to be 25k and not 39k, that means Model 3 lines would have had to have been down for at least a week as well.

Yeah..........I smell BS

Indeed

It's times like this where I despair that Tesla themselves don't just put out a statement to clarify matters. I'm not looking for them to step-in to save the share-price, just clarify mis-information. In some cases it will work against the SP, but I prefer to know the facts

And fo that matter, as Tesla know CN will publish monthly figures, why not just officialise it directly from Tesla themselves to avoid this nonsense every single month?

I believe Tesla CN actually does have some kind of PR department, we've seen them respond to stuff recently, why not this?

 

[Singuy]

Today TSLA held above its low of March 30th and its 200-day SMA (simple moving average). That’s welcome news technically, and would be even better tomorrow if it closes above its 150-day SMA.

Margin calls might have run their course today, and considering the two-day settlement period, the time to raise money for tax payments will soon close. Today may have been a good bet for the post-Q1 bottom.

Is the tax thing really a thing? Why rally in April and sell in May if taxes are usually due in April?