Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Whew, lot to unpack here. I'm sure the guy who was one of the first to call the housing market crash and who profited well from the GameStoo squeeze doesn't know what he's doing.

The chatter today was about his 8k puts. He had zero puts as of December 31, which is after the S&P inclusion. As of March 31st, he reported his puts. I suppose he could have a short position as well since those don't need to be reported to the SEC on the 13F, which generated the chatter today.

Anyway, you can criticize Burry for his reasoning, position, etc. but saying you're not listening to the guy unless he starts up a competitor is laughable and a classic case of burying your head in the sand. Not sure why people are so quick to dismiss others who don't share their exact outlook.
You do realize that he's only known for one great investment pick.....which was the mortgage crisis. He hasn't show any ability to replicate that success or even close to it since. You're literally calling someone out for not doing their due diligence while not doing your own. There's a reason you haven't heard anything of Burry since the mortgage crisis......

Edit: You also realize that had the government or SEC stepped in any point within the first year of Burry's short on the mortgage crisis, they quite probably could have mitigated the damage and Burry's short position would have been blown up. He got lucky from sheer government/regulatory stupidity and Wall St greed. His short worked because he was banking on Wall St staying corrupt and the government/rating agencies/SEC being idiots. So he apparently think the same of Elon and Tesla exec's
 
Last edited:
Tweeting about cryptocurrencies rather than the core business, not only encourages credulous followers to sell stock shares to buy cryptocurrencies, but also turns off institutional investors.

Meanwhile, employees partially paid in stock shares and options can't be too happy with their depreciating assets. Those benefits had been arguments by management against unionization.

Employee stock options typically have two prices that matter, the price they are granted at and the price they vest at (excercise). The difference determines the value gained by the employee.

It's just as bad to have a high price when then are granted as it is to have a low price when they are vested. So a low price can benefit employees and give them incentive to stick around until they are vested.

My personal belief is that too much of the share price decline is being attributed to Bitcoin tweets by some people. Correlation does not equal causation and the price was set up to decline with or without the Bitcoin tweets. How much we can only make a meaningless guess. My way of thinking about my investment in TSLA is that it's really Elon's baby. While he pulled many talented and dedicated people together to make this happen, those people would not be together, at least not in a company nearly as successful, without Elon building the proper path. I don't say this with stars in my eyes as if he can do no wrong, every human makes mistakes, but I think a little humbleness from outside observers/shareholders is in order. I believe the world is much more complex and fluid than any one person's analysis can accommodate and that it's foolish to even claim with any certainty that you know which actions are mistakes and which ones get us to where we want to go.

If you think you know of a better person to lead the company, bring it up with the BoD. You had better have a strong contender and good reasons why this alternative leader will serve our interests better. You're going to have a hard time getting me to want to change horses after all the treacherous rivers we have crossed successfully. Short of that, I say let the leader lead and try not to second guess their every move as if anyone else can better predict the future than the proven leader. Chances are, we don't know 1/4 of what Elon is actually doing. I fully admit I don't know why he does what he does most of the time but, based on past performance, I give him the benefit of the doubt. Because I know of no other person I think could successfully lead this company as well. It's a lot harder than it looks and the company's performance to date on a multitude of fronts that we can't even see must have been just short of miraculous to have had so much concrete success in such a difficult field to enter. And I'm not speaking of share price appreciation, I'm looking at the companies execution in the real world, their ability to sell ever increasing volumes of EVs at a profit while building a world class charging network, something no other company can do. It's astounding and it took more correct turns than any of us will know to build a company lean enough and yet capable enough to do this.

The Bitcoin stuff is just noise. And there is probably a reason behind the perceived madness that goes well beyond the explanation offered by many outside observers, that Elon is foolish. Regardless of whether he's made every decision correctly (he hasn't but I don't pretend to be able to identify every mistake), I know Elon isn't foolish and is reacting to considerations we cannot even see.

Elon takes the long view and the noise in the moment doesn't move the needle much one way or the other. He doesn't need people second-guessing his every move, at least not those who are not in the thick of relevant considerations.
 
And now I’ve heard enough.

As a long term shareholder who believes in the mission I actually don’t want wishy- washy look for any excuse to get out institutional or otherwise investors involved in TSLA. Such participants add to the volatility.

You’re NOT an investor of any kind if you can’t leave your personal opinion at the door and base your INVESTMENT on FACTS.

Here’s the facts. Tesla bought 1.2B in bitcoin with money they had sitting in the bank doing NOTHING. Subsequently they MADE money (and are still UP on the purchase) and for a period of time offered customers an opportunity to purchase Tesla with said bitcoin.

Currently, due to increased energy consumption not of the renewable kind, Tesla has stopped accepting bitcoin payments for cars but has not sold the remainder of their bitcoin position (in hopes it seems of encouraging greater sustainable energy consumption).

That is all. The rest of what’s going on is akin to a high school cafeteria food fight of opinions and has nothing to do with Tesla or investing.

As for employees being unhappy with the current lower SP, give me a break. Employees that we’d hope had the mission top of their minds and are in it for the LONG term. Employees we were told WANTED a stock split so they could afford to buy more shares.

No, I’m not for a second believing that a SP that’s appreciated as much as it has is now somehow too low for those employees because it’s off its ATH due MOSTLY to sector fund rotation.

Otherwise intelligent people falling for the FUD - that’s what’s going on here.
Indeed, it would be marvelous if stock prices swung purely based on facts. Instead, we often need to investigate reasons that psychology, perspectives and credulity might be having some effects. It appears that both facts and beliefs have been at play in recent months. Management must deal with both.
 
Tweeting about cryptocurrencies rather than the core business, not only encourages credulous followers to sell stock shares to buy cryptocurrencies, but also turns off institutional investors.

Meanwhile, employees partially paid in stock shares and options can't be too happy with their depreciating assets. Those benefits had been arguments by management against unionization.
> encourages credulous followers to sell stock shares to buy cryptocurrencies
I know at least one person who did this, pretty much didn't own crypto before, made some decent sized investment into BTC, and DOGE with proceeds from selling TSLA. I would be very surprised if there aren't quite a few out there.
 
Indeed, it would be marvelous if stock prices swung purely based on facts. Instead, we often need to investigate reasons that psychology, perspectives and credulity might be having some effects. It appears that both facts and beliefs have been at play in recent months. Management must deal with both.

Management has my support to treat the share price as a secondary consideration. The world of public companies is full of management teams who have tried to micro-manage the share price. It works great until it doesn't. In my opinion it's a waste of time to focus on that detail because it always takes care of itself in the end. Managements primary task is to grow and strengthen the business. They can keep the company's treasury funds in whatever form they think serves the company best, without regard to potential short term moves of the share price. Management has my support to use the share price as leverage, as a pawn in the game they are playing. Because it's a game much more serious than TSLA's share price at any given moment.

Tesla has a huge job ahead of them, contrary to many here, I do not believe the battle is won. I am confident that extra-ordinary measures are still required to keep this ship on course. If successful, there will be a wake of destruction left trailing behind. Powerful people do not like to be part of that destruction. I can't see what Elon and team are doing but, then again, neither can those who stand in the way of progress. Disruption is not easy when you are up against powerful forces and that's why we have a leader with proven ability to make it happen. I would be worried if that leader was as transparent as a looking glass and everyone could see exactly what he was doing. Trust me when I tell you disrupting power and wealth is the most difficult thing in the world and it is not measured by the share price, at least not accurately through time. It is only done through deception and illusion. We are in the beginning of the third act of the most amazing play on earth. This play is about the transition from the industrial age to the age of information and it's a much bigger deal and more disruptive than anyone gives it credit for. Watch the masters at work and do not think they don't know what's going on. It's not about Bitcoin, that's just a pawn. This is something you cannot learn about in business school. That's why we have Elon.
 
Last edited:
I would think if this fella has any sense of self preservation; at some point he would recognize that they’ve driven this stock to its local bottom and need to reverse their position.

It could be regional privilege; but my kids water polo practice is comprised of about 50% or greater Tesla’s in the parking lot. Don’t get me started on their private school…it’s more than 50% for sure. I would suspect many of these folks have the same experience in their neighborhoods.

Eventually they must recognize that the stock is not going to zero. Covering is imminent. Tick, tick, tick, tick

This is a 2021 Q1 filing. The positions are guaranteed to be at least 45 days old, and could be as many as 125 days old. SEC disclosure rules are like the Vatican daycare...
 
Whew, lot to unpack here. I'm sure the guy who was one of the first to call the housing market crash and who profited well from the GameStoo squeeze doesn't know what he's doing.

The chatter today was about his 8k puts. He had zero puts as of December 31, which is after the S&P inclusion. As of March 31st, he reported his puts. I suppose he could have a short position as well since those don't need to be reported to the SEC on the 13F, which generated the chatter today.

Anyway, you can criticize Burry for his reasoning, position, etc. but saying you're not listening to the guy unless he starts up a competitor is laughable and a classic case of burying your head in the sand. Not sure why people are so quick to dismiss others who don't share their exact outlook.
You know you are talking to a bunch of guys, some of whom 100 - 150x their investment in TSLA right? Burry’s bets are nothing comparatively. Perspective.
 
Indeed, it would be marvelous if stock prices swung purely based on facts. Instead, we often need to investigate reasons that psychology, perspectives and credulity might be having some effects. It appears that both facts and beliefs have been at play in recent months. Management must deal with both.
I disagree. As an investor I have no desire to know why the SP is moving one way or another on any given day. It’s meaningless in the scheme of things and I’ve got more important things to stress about - like if I’m about to have a bad hair day

If it meant anything of value we wouldn’t have people constantly reminding us with fancy sayings like ‘The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent’. Indeed, the very nature of that statement clearly tells us the physiology and perspectives don’t matter because we don’t control it.

Management has clearly stated over the years they don’t care about the day to day SP. Management’s job is to manage the company, which they have done well enough to be the first new OEM in decades to succeed.

Curt, we’ve been here before. Multiple times. SP is too high (3xs!). Funding secured. Pedo. Solar City. SEC lawsuit. And so on... Not one of those events means anything contextually to today’s SP but people sure lost their minds in the moment and every single second of worry, angst, handwringing and anger was wasted energy that would have been better spent hugging a cat. Bitcoin and Doge are exactly the same: big fat nothing burgers. At some point I’d think learning from the past would click.
 
I disagree. As an investor I have no desire to know why the SP is moving one way or another on any given day. It’s meaningless in the scheme of things and I’ve got more important things to stress about - like if I’m about to have a bad TONGUE* day (*see @Krugerrand's avatar)

If it meant anything of value we wouldn’t have people constantly reminding us with fancy sayings like ‘The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent’. Indeed, the very nature of that statement clearly tells us the physiology and perspectives don’t matter because we don’t control it.

Management has clearly stated over the years they don’t care about the day to day SP. Management’s job is to manage the company, which they have done well enough to be the first new OEM in decades to succeed.

Curt, we’ve been here before. Multiple times. SP is too high (3xs!). Funding secured. Pedo. Solar City. SEC lawsuit. And so on... Not one of those events means anything contextually to today’s SP but people sure lost their minds in the moment and every single second of worry, angst, handwringing and anger was wasted energy that would have been better spent hugging a cat. Bitcoin and Doge are exactly the same: big fat nothing burgers. At some point I’d think learning from the past would click.
FTFY
 
Last edited:
Quick thought on the "tesla can't profit without credits" FUD.

So these people think that Tesla can't sell EVs at a profit, but also think the companies who are so incompetent that they can't even sell enough EVs to meet their emissions obligations if they sell them at a loss, will make profits in the space? Am I missing something here or is this what it boils down to?
 
A 29 year old CA governor candidate who talks about Tesla, competition between Giga Shanghai/Austin and Fremont, battery storage, Boring tunnels, road privatization, SpaceX/StarLink, blockchain, CA's own crypto currency, carbon tax, randomized inspection and DMV reform in his campaign announcement video.

I bet he watched the Musk Joe Rogan show 1, as he stole Elon's explanation of why tunnels are safer in an earthquake than bridges.

 
Last edited:
Depending when and what strikes Burry used, he’s probably already made a killing based on the share price the last three months. I’d bet he’s trimmed quite a bit by now. If he’s still short at the end of June, then things are more interesting.
You know the worst thing about Burry, isn’t that he shorted Tesla, it’s that he’s somehow been glamorized due to a movie. At least with Moneyball, Billy Beane was kind of cool.