Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

The adapter plus surcharge on the Tesla network may only get people a lackluster charging speed as Tesla also needs to deal with potentially hundreds of different unique charging profiles and architecture. Charging at high amp is no joke and no charger want to be responsible for a fire or breaking electronics in the vehicle. The engineers for battery management is not sitting across the aisle from engineers writing code and specs for the superchargers unlike Tesla. This is why the extremely long handshake from EA and being extremely conservative by throwing out errors.

This is not a problem that can be fixed until car manufacturers start using some kind of unified infrastructure.

This is like the early days of computer hardware. Absolute a cluster F of incompatibility until IBM unified them. Same with GPUs until DirectX unifies them.

I’m pretty sure it’s the vehicle's job to request the correct charge profile from the charger.

edit: what @mongo said.

 

[Artful Dodger]

All BTC discussion is to be continued here: Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Discussion Thread.

Emphasis on ALL.

OT:

Spoiler: "Well... I had it coming..." by Mr. Hedgie

Unfortunately, Mr Hedgie died in 2020 shortly before the pandemic...

Cheers!

 

[The Accountant]

@The Accountant - thoughts?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1396498187695706119

Fact Checking also posted the following on Twitter, corroborating the claim.

View attachment 665311

He has the concept correct but using the wrong numbers.

The Q1 low for Bitcoin was $28,722 on Jan 4 but I don't believe that Telsa had purchased Bitcoin by Jan 4. I believe that Tesla purchased Bitcoin around Jan 20-23 and had to write done Bitcoin in Q1 due to the the low on Jan 23 of $31,493.
With a new low of 30,261 on May 19, Tesla takes about a $52m impairment in Q2.
There is no further impairment losses if the price does not go below the May 19 low of $30,261.
So if bitcoin goes from $50k to 33k for example, there is no additional charge to the financial statements as Bitcoin is currently valued at $30,261 per unit on the balance sheet in Q2.

The current $52m charge to Q2 earnings is a non-cash charge and not a significant hit to earnings as I am projecting about $800m in GAAP earnings for Q2.

 

[elasalle]

I'm pretty jealous that F-150s can serve as backup battery generators for homes and, despite hearing the logic against it in Battery Day, still feel it's a valid option the owners should have for the wide ranging situational utility i

Competition will mean Something similar will have to be provided ~ else incumbent will suffer from disruption.In EV space Tesla is the incumbent

The feature here is home backup and not V2G

imagine the optics of a Texas kinda outage and only F-150 can provide backup while CT sits in the garage

things is All EVS are at low volumes initially so there’s enough time to resolve the issue

 

[mongo]

Competition will mean Something similar will have to be provided ~ else incumbent will suffer from disruption.In EV space Tesla is the incumbent

The feature here is home backup and not V2G

imagine the optics of a Texas kinda outage and only F-150 can provide backup while CT sits in the garage

things is All EVS are at low volumes initially so there’s enough time to resolve the issue

CT will have 240V AC plugs, that allows it to be used as a generator replacement with a manual transfer switch (at an unknown power level).

 

[willow_hiller]

I guess the removal of radar is official now. Model 3/Y spec pages have removed references to the forward facing radar.

Before:

After:

 

[elasalle]

CT will have 240V AC plugs, that allows it to be used as a generator replacement with a manual transfer switch (at an unknown power level).

How will the generator be hooked up to house to run AC, Refrigerator etc.?

I thought generator was for work related stuff, like hooking up chain saws etc.?

 

[scaesare]

I guess the removal of radar is official now. Model 3/Y spec pages have removed references to the forward facing radar.

Before:

After:

That looks to say "250 m[eters] of Powerful Visual Processing".

That sounds weird. I'd expect "250 m of visual range" or "18TFlops of visual processing power", or something like that... but the way that's stated seems odd.

 

[StealthP3D]

Actually this is a significant problem.
Probably harms the mission more than we know.

We (EV drivers) need a fast standard way to charge.

Tesla can't do it alone.

Actually, Tesla probably could do the charge network side of things alone. The margins would not be as high as car making but EV charge networks could be a part of Tesla Energy.

Tesla understands how to make a good charging experience, where charging infrastructure needs to go (locations will be different for the shorter average ranges of the non-Tesla EV fleet) and how to design, make and install the charging equipment in a cost effective manner. By charging Electrify America prices, I think there is plenty of room for this to break-even while expanding at a reasonable clip. Electrify America would end up being an emergency only charge solution for most EV drivers and EV drivers everywhere would finally have a fast DC charging solution they knew they could rely on.

 

[mongo]

How will the generator be hooked up to house to run AC, Refrigerator etc.?

I thought generator was for work related stuff, like hooking up chain saws etc.?

The same way people hook up a gasoline generator now. Male outlet connected to a load transfer switch. Whether or not this use case is intended by Tesla, there is not really any difference from other loading situations. My main panels have this setup for my 30A, 7.2kW portable genset that keeps us going with manual load shedding.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Actually, Tesla probably could do the charge network side of things alone. The margins would not be as high as car making but EV charge networks could be a part of Tesla Energy.

Tesla understands how to make a good charging experience, where charging infrastructure needs to go (locations will be different for the shorter average ranges of the non-Tesla EV fleet) and how to design, make and install the charging equipment in a cost effective manner. By charging Electrify America prices, I think there is plenty of room for this to break-even while expanding at a reasonable clip. Electrify America would end up being an emergency only charge solution for most EV drivers and EV drivers everywhere would finally have a fast DC charging solution they knew they could rely on.

It still remains to be seen how (or if) Biden's EV charging infrastructure plan will incentivize providers. If there is sufficient profit potential, Tesla could crank up Buffalo and bury the competition.

 

[agastya]

It is only Monday, but IMO this cannot be beat as the top clown speak of the week - of course from the best we know in the business.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1396802486653145091

The F150-Lightning that came out last week - they have a battery that's roughly a 170 kWh v/s Tesla's model 3 which has a 61 kwh battery. Yet the F150 costs the same as the Model 3. So it looks like Ford has an advantage in battery technology.

And of course - Gordo has finally stated on record that he has zero skin in the game, with no TSLA positions.

 

[joh01652]

I don't know where Elon said this, but Bloomberg states:

Musk has made similar comments before, including in December when he tweeted that “Bitcoin is almost as bs as fiat money.” In February, he elaborated to say that “when fiat currency has negative real interest, only a fool wouldn’t look elsewhere.”

 

[StealthP3D]

So I guess there are no specific examples of meaningful criticism from you on Tesla.

The problem with the "well we don't know enough so it might be a mistake or 4D chess" to critique stops the conversation. Tesla and Elon has many many meaningful mistakes people defended calling it 4d chess but at the end they were just mistakes. We shouldn't create the biggest echo chamber of all time giving management the benefit of the doubt 100% of the time solely because we are not insiders. I would say every time there's an outcry about something Elon or Tesla did where we felt it was a mistake turns out to be one. Not many time where there were huge negative reactions on this forum about something and it turned out to be 4d chess.

I don't like echo chambers either. Which is why I've been cautioning people to avoid thinking the stock can ONLY go up over 2021. I actually started warning about this early this year. But none of this has anything significant to do with where Tesla puts 5% of their cash on hand.

And there are too many examples of times when people thought Tesla was blowing it and it turned out to be a big nothing burger. Or times when people thought outside events beyond Tesla's control would crush Tesla and it turned out to be a big nothing burger. And many of these things were when Tesla was trading below $60 (pre-split). So, your memory and my memory differ wildly.

The most profitable Tesla investors to date are those who went in as big as possible and never sold a single share. They didn't worry about supposedly substandard Tesla Service Centers, about supposed falling demand, about Elon's "take private" tweet, about the "pedo guy" tweets, about supposed "erratic" car pricing or price drops that supposedly indicated "falling demand". They didn't worry about minor panel gap variations and supposed poor build quality, nor about the onslaught of competition from more experienced car makers. I could go on and on but all of these things turned out to be big nothing burgers and those of us who looked at the big picture are sitting on more shares and have more unrealized gains than those who worried about trying to micro-manage Elon and the business he has been VERY successfully running for well over a decade.

If I think things have changed, I'll let you know. There are some things I'm keeping my eye on because my investment has grown to a very substantial size and I wouldn't want to throw it away but, no, I'm not too concerned with where Tesla puts 5% of their cash on hand. That's not even on my radar. Keep your eye on the ball, not the fake movements the pitcher throws in post pitch.

 

[AimStellar]

Somewhat odd initiation and analyst note from Wells Fargo

 

[SO16]

Plaid now says deliveries in June for all new orders placed today.

Not sure I’d put too much faith in this. Those that are waiting for their new Model S has seen their expected delivery dates frequently change. Same could be possible with new orders.

 

[StealthP3D]

Plaid now says deliveries in June for all new orders placed today.

Well that's not good news for this California Ford dealer:

California dealer asking $169,999 for 2020 Ford Mustang Shelby GT500

Ford Authority ran a piece on Koons Ford, a dealer in Sterling, Virginia, advertising a 2020 Ford Mustang Shelby GT500 for $145,890. Based on listed options like the carbon fiber track package, technology package, and $10,000 painted stripes, FA played with the Mustang configurator at Ford's...

news.yahoo.com

It makes the Ford GT at double it's MSRP look like a poor value.

 

[Drax7]

CNBS starts the week with a negative narrative, putting on Gordon Johnson’s
FUD with the intent of shaking longs .

why does this feel premeditated

 

[StealthP3D]

Competition will mean Something similar will have to be provided ~ else incumbent will suffer from disruption.In EV space Tesla is the incumbent

The feature here is home backup and not V2G

imagine the optics of a Texas kinda outage and only F-150 can provide backup while CT sits in the garage

things is All EVS are at low volumes initially so there’s enough time to resolve the issue

Imagine the optics of a power outage in Texas in 2024, over two years into into F-150 Lightning production when there's a few thousand F-150's providing 2-3 days power to their owner's homes (at least when they don't need the truck to get to work) and even more Tesla solar owners w/battery backup having an indefinite source of power, as long as the outage lasts.

Imagine the optics when all the F-150 owners have run their truck batteries flat while the lights are still on those homes with Tesla energy solutions.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, that was a cheeky little move w. 2 min to go before the Open: (ONLY 300K vol in the Pre-market)

Wedgies making that sure TSLA is capped at the MA(10):

Tryin' hard to keep the neg. momo going by scaring some shares out of the puffins...

Cheers!