Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[InTheShadows]

Ding! We have a winner. I think Fidelity screwed up to some extent, but I was definitely trading in a manner their system didn't like.

Got an ALL CAPS margin warning this morning then Fidelity forced a buy-to-close on some TSLA LEAPs I sold in December. Currently on hold trying to figure out why buying something has somehow negated a margin issue, but it sounds like all is well. Perhaps there was a cash position requirement somewhere in the mix that I wasn't meeting. Totally fine being forced to buy 2023 TSLA calls at today's open!

They really shouldn't let you trade in any complex fashion within IRAs.

Glad you got it figured out. Yea buying leaps this am is probably a good deal. My beef with them is I can't sell poor mans covered calls in that account. I should be able to and have the IRA Spread agreement level of trading. I can do it in my Roth which is at E*Trade. I love buying leaps when the stock is oversold and IV is relatively low and then selling next months OTM calls against them.

 

[WolfHero]

Ppl have no idea how close we are to a disaster

Taiwan, where most of these chips are made, almost ran out of water. Water which TSMC needs.

Now there is a typhoon that is expected to hit the middle part of Taiwan that will replenish the important reservoirs that provides water to manufacturers, which is why the government didn't give the order to restrict water.

Let's all pray that this one doesn't decide to change course at the last second like all the typhoons in the past year.

Another potential problem now that covid has broken through taiwan's defenses. We are starting to see some of the smaller chip manufacturers that employ a lot of cheap foreign labours shutdown from infection. Again, pray that no one at tsmc gets infected.

Manwhile vaccine manufacturers bow down to China's pressure and block vaccine shipment to Taiwan at the last second.

You guys see how ridiculous this situation is? Sure, in the long term, the shortage is a nothingburger, but if any of these incident goes the wrong way, we are looking at some major disruptions. .

Thankfully Taiwan is getting 1.24M doses of AstraZeneca redirected from Japanese government and also receive some mixure of Pfizer/Moderna/J&J vaccines from USA through COVAX program (7M doses distributed among Taiwan, India, and Nepal

Taiwan, feuding with China, gets COVID-19 vaccines from Japan

A flight carrying 1.24 million doses of AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine from Japan touched down in Taiwan on Friday to help the vaccine-starved island fight its largest outbreak since the pandemic began.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

So outside of North America, EU/UK and China what countries are getting deliveries in Q2?

Japan
South Korea
Israel
Australia
New Zeeland?

Any others? Do we have estimates for any of these?

Are any of these countries getting Model Y?

I'm obviously hoping the 44k production number from China is correct but there needs to be a lot of exports to the above countries for the numbers to make sense if China sales were around 21k

 

[Navin]

In case anyone here is still scratching their head and wondering what could have been a possible reason for yesterday’s random and out of nowhere drive-by hit job on Tesla by The Information. Well, it turns out they are hosting their own autonomy/self driving conference next week and obviously Elon and Tesla’s now rescheduled Model S event will take “energy” away from their own clown show. This hit piece by them could have been a way to get back at Elon - basically show him the finger and appease their sponsors.

The Information's 5th Annual Autonomous Vehicles Summit

The Information is hosting our fifth annual Autonomous Vehicle Summit on Wednesday, June 9. This is a one-of-a-kind virtual conference for autonomous vehicle industry leaders. The Autonomous Vehicles Summit features a mix of interviews, fireside chats and breakout sessions hosted by The...

www.theinformation.com

 

[Prunesquallor]

In case anyone here is still scratching their head and wondering what could have been a possible reason for yesterday’s random and out of nowhere drive-by hit job on Tesla by The Information. Well, it turns out they are hosting their own autonomy/self driving conference next week and obviously Elon and Tesla’s now rescheduled Model S event will take “energy” away from their own clown show. This hit piece by them could have been a way to get back at Elon - basically show him the finger and appease their sponsors.

The Information's 5th Annual Autonomous Vehicles Summit

The Information is hosting our fifth annual Autonomous Vehicle Summit on Wednesday, June 9. This is a one-of-a-kind virtual conference for autonomous vehicle industry leaders. The Autonomous Vehicles Summit features a mix of interviews, fireside chats and breakout sessions hosted by The...

www.theinformation.com

Who the frack is “The Information“. And why should we care?

 

[Navin]

Who the frack is “The Information“. And why should we care?

They are a media outlet. Yesterday - they put out a hit piece that caused Tesla’s stock price to drop directly as a result. The story was likely bs but they attacked the company and it’s sometimes helpful to try to find reasons or incentives why someone would do something. My post was an attempt to offer a plausible reason.

 

[Wicket]

Those are my thoughts too re the event next week. I wonder if the Plaid+ just ends up being a track package with custom wheel/tires and software unlock vs being a physically different car. Take your Plaid now and get our + goodies next year once ready or something along those lines.

The plaid+ has the new 4680 and structural pack which will substantially improve on charging and handling and so be a nice boost to value. I wonder if they could even consider building it out in texas and keep the lines in fremont in place as they slowly wind down the significance of fremont and all its California problems. I assume Kato road battery line gets moved as well.

Because that plaid+ design has superior cost characteristics I assume eventually the old 2270 models get phased out. A long range 4680 model at 75-80k$ is an absurdly good deal especially under a Biden subsidy scenario and I feel like 100k s/x annually should be doable again and with solid 30%+ margins.

But I might be missing something. I haven't recorded all the known info that well

 

[WolfHero]

So outside of North America, EU/UK and China what countries are getting deliveries in Q2?

Japan
South Korea
Israel
Australia
New Zeeland?

Any others? Do we have estimates for any of these?

Are any of these countries getting Model Y?

I'm obviously hoping the 44k production number from China is correct but there needs to be a lot of exports to the above countries for the numbers to make sense if China sales were around 21k

Taiwan's Data point for single month (May) delivery that I posted on Tuesday:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Test I can’t believe nobody posted anything for more than 2h 😂

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

We're gonna creep up to $695 for June 18th expiration, about where we were when blockbuster 1Q deliveries were announced. Now everyone will be doing backflips of joy just to get back there. Amazing work the MM's can do to reset the narrative and expectation. Perhaps that's actually part of their job.

For those who are unaware (or have simply forgotten), $695 was the closing TSLA share price just before the S&P 500 inclusion (Fri, Dec 18, 2020).

There are quarterly rebalancing events for the S&P 500 index, with the largest of those by trading volume on the 3rd Fridays of June and Dec.

Coming up in just two weeks, the 3rd Friday of June is an Options expiry day (also a so-called "triple-witching" Friday) as well as the rebalancing date. Options open interest for Jun 18 expiry is already over 1.16M contracts. This insures a large volume day, but also means that the SP will be strongly affected by the interests of Options stakeholders (both options writers and holders).

Note that during the March 2021 rebalancing period, TSLA had its highest ever single-day share price gain of $110 closing on Tue Mar 9 at $673.

Why the contrast in dates? Well, the way that S&P DJI currently does their quarterly rebalancing, the "investable weight factors" (IWF - basically an individual equity's portion of the entire Index) are frozen at the share price at the close on the Tuesday BEFORE the 2nd Friday of the rebalancing month (whew, what a mouthful).

I think this means that the $110 single-day gain in TSLA restored its rebalanced weight in the S&P 500 to almost exactly what it was initially set at in Dec 2020. The will be only the 2nd rebalancing event that I've followed closely, so still gathering data.

I think this also means that the closing share price on Tue, Jun 8, 2021 may be used to factor in the IWF for next Friday's rebalancing event. This (may or may not) affect the number of shares that large index funds buy or sell over the course of about +/- 5 days from the event (that may have started today).

Also, Dec 2020's event showed us that the large majority of the shares traded by index funds happend at the closing cross on the 3rd Friday (and A/hrs). Tue, Dec 8, 2020 saw a similar bump in TSLA to close at 649.88 (SP went down $45 the following day).

Anyway, wanted to give you all another data point, and I'll continue to report what I see. I do think this is an important factor given how large a component TSLA is in the S&P 500 and how volatile it is. Anything which drives genuine transfer of shares (not HFT by MMs/hedgies) will affect the SP (up or down), as we've seen.

Cheers!

 

[tslagreen]

Ppl have no idea how close we are to a disaster

Taiwan, where most of these chips are made, almost ran out of water. Water which TSMC needs.

Now there is a typhoon that is expected to hit the middle part of Taiwan that will replenish the important reservoirs that provides water to manufacturers, which is why the government didn't give the order to restrict water.

Let's all pray that this one doesn't decide to change course at the last second like all the typhoons in the past year.

Another potential problem now that covid has broken through taiwan's defenses. We are starting to see some of the smaller chip manufacturers that employ a lot of cheap foreign labours shutdown from infection. Again, pray that no one at tsmc gets infected.

Manwhile vaccine manufacturers bow down to China's pressure and block vaccine shipment to Taiwan at the last second.

You guys see how ridiculous this situation is? Sure, in the long term, the shortage is a nothingburger, but if any of these incident goes the wrong way, we are looking at some major disruptions. .

A little dramatic for my taste. Same sentiment could be said for the upside. Race relations heal, US and Russia co-exist in a practical, but respectful manner, China relents on trade and currency manipulation, fair wages and tax policy blossom in the US. Chill a bit...

 

[printf42]

Date:
Jun 10th

Location:
Fremont

Big screen:

The Fastest Family Car tiktok buddywyrick

#luxury #luxuryvehicles #shortsvideo by:Disclaimer: The images used in this video are not owned by this channel.Tags:2021 audi q5, 2021 mercedes glc, amazing...

youtube.com

“You are looking at the fastest family car in the world, it cost 1.9Million USD…”

Elon:
“Wait, rewind that…”

Screen goes out.
Stage light focuses on a red Model S.

Same voice over:
“You are looking at the fastest family car in the world, it cost 119K USD…”

 

[kengchang]

A little dramatic for my taste. Same sentiment could be said for the upside. Race relations heal, US and Russia co-exist in a practical, but respectful manner, China relents on trade and currency manipulation, fair wages and tax policy blossom in the US. Chill a bit...

He wasn't being dramatic at all, parts of Taiwan have been rationing water with 5 days of water supply and 2 days without for like a month already.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Great end to a brutal week where Team Tesla lost the first four of the week, but finished strong and hopefully carries some momentum into next week. This week they hit 7 games below 0.500 which was the most games under water at any time this season. China numbers and 6/10 Plaid event could give the team a nice tailwind going into summer.

Today
Score:	599.05
Margin of W/L:	26.21
Attendance:	24,036,896
High - Low:	23.41
Season
Record:	50-56
Total margin of wins:	1,081.72
Total margin of losses:	-1,188.34
YTD gain/loss:	-106.62	-15.11%
Best Win:	110.58	Mar 9
Worst Loss:	-68.83	Jan 11
Last 10:	4-6
Streak:	W1
Avg margin of victory:	21.63
Avg margin of defeat:	-21.22
Avg Attendance:	30,434,343
Avg Attendance of Last 10:	26,827,546
Avg High - Low:	34.82
Avg H - L of Last 10:	22.28

 

[CyberDutchie]

For some perspective: exactly 7 years ago on Jun 3, 2014, the share price was $40.99 pre-split. This day was the Tesla Shareholder Meeting in Mountain View, I remember it well. Early days for TMC, Dave Lee was organizing meetups with other TMCers, like a lunch that day:

View attachment 669322View attachment 669323View attachment 669324

Posted a picture here yesterday from the 2014 Tesla Shareholder Meeting. Here’s another one of Elon’s slides, where he estimates Tesla’s volume in 2020.

It is just remarkable how accurate his estimate was! Thought I’d share this photo as well...

 

[Cherry Wine]

A little dramatic for my taste. Same sentiment could be said for the upside. Race relations heal, US and Russia co-exist in a practical, but respectful manner, China relents on trade and currency manipulation, fair wages and tax policy blossom in the US. Chill a bit...

@Causalien was one of the few people providing information on a mysterious virus in China on this forum in mid-January 2020. When he talks about issues in that part of the world, I pay attention.

 

[bpjod]

A little dramatic for my taste. Same sentiment could be said for the upside. Race relations heal, US and Russia co-exist in a practical, but respectful manner, China relents on trade and currency manipulation, fair wages and tax policy blossom in the US. Chill a bit...

In case you missed the importance of this, first realize the extent of the chip shortage we’re currently in. I’ve been waiting for a graphics card for my new PC build since October. Look up the hoards of vehicles sitting in lots waiting for chips as well as factory shut downs related to the chip shortage. Then consider how important Taiwan is to the global chip supply.

Furthermore TSMC and Samsung are the two manufacturers of the highest tech chips. This news is not good news when it comes to putting an end to the global chip shortage.

 

[Sparky4life]

$178 pre-split. $4,500 at the peak in 19 mths. 25x top to bottom.

I got some at $210 pre-split. It's tough to time the market.

 

[insaneoctane]

I think Tesla goes directly for a $25K CUV-style 5-door hatch for N. America. With a $10K refundable tax credit, it causes a cognitive reset in the American auto market.

2M sales per year. More if they can bundle V2G w. its 42KWh LFP pack.

North America, ya kno ya want to...

Cheers!

Speculative question....what minimum range and kWh pack size are we thinking the “$25K” Tesla weighs in at?

 

[insaneoctane]

It's going to be hilarious if it turns out that May was actually a blockbuster month for China....

I’m sure the media that went with that story would publish corrections to ensure their readers got the real story, right?

 

[kbM3]

Posted a picture here yesterday from the 2014 Tesla Shareholder Meeting. Here’s another one of Elon’s slides, where he estimates Tesla’s volume in 2020.

View attachment 669692

It is just remarkable how accurate his estimate was! Thought I’d share this photo as well...

To be fair, if Elon hit all of his estimates, the stock would already be $5k / share.

The difficulty is in parsing when Elon’s estimates are accurate and what is exactly the meaning of Elon time.

Tesla definitely over delivered on Model Y and GigaShanghai.

They definitely under-delivered with autonomy.

The real difficulty, lies in trying to predict where Elon‘s ambitious goals are somewhat realistic, versus where he is definitely being overly optimistic.