Or a gofundme for 'bail' $$...
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
While I agree with what you're saying, I feel people are too focused on "We have to hit this production rate or sell "X" amount of vehicles" for the stock valuation to be justified which is much too simple of way of looking at it because it ignores actual metrics for valuation of a stock as well as the key metrics for how well the company is executing.
A great example would be - If Tesla could hit 900-950k deliveries for 2021 with just Fremont/Shanghai....it would actually be better "earnings wise" than Tesla doing 950k using 50-100k out of Austin/Berlin. And that's because efficiency in the company and it's execution can have profound effects on earnings. Tesla has shown a great ability to get more out of the same amount of people, equipment, and factories that has big impacts on earnings.
And my point is that Tesla can easily be (and is) undervalued right now even if they did only get to a 2 million annual run rate by the end of 2022 because their efficiency, margins, and thus profits determine the valuation of a company just as much as the basic revenue growth does.
One thing I always point to is Tesla's gross margins and operating margins which already outclass the auto industry and they're not even at a million annual run rate yet. Just think of their operating margin when they're at a annual run rate or 2 million....then 3 million....and then think about all the advancements in manufacturing they're going to implement that produces more vehicles out of less manpower, equipment, etc....No one should be surprised when Tesla starts approaching operating margin/profits on Apple in a couple years
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Yes, exactly but Munro will take awhile. So in the interim, for anyone still wondering, watch Jordan Giesige's excellent hour long wrap up video at the Limiting Factor that he posted yesterday. It summarizes the 18 months of in-depth research he's done pre-/post battery day. It will a) pump you up because it's mind blowing what Tesla's doing once you're down in the weeds as far as he goes and b) gives a dose of reality for just how hard and time consuming each step in the process is. The last 30 minutes of the video are especially useful as he works through a very detailed timeline analysis for when 4680s could come online, which factories will get them, and which vehicles they'll go into. Granted, it get's to be speculative at that point but his speculations are well informed and logical and would put to rest much of the incessant & poorly informed speculations here.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Tesla is actively testing production equipment at Giga Berlin.
driveteslacanada.ca
Tesla Giga Berlin begins testing production line equipment on Model Y frames and castings
Tesla has begun testing some of their production line equipment on Model Y frames, indicating a 2021 opening is highly likely.
driveteslacanada.ca
It's the pull the rabbit out of hat play on Jun 10th.
could include FSD v9 along with 4680s. (less chances)
duration includes the next Q2 Production and Q2 Earnings. (better chances)
"Following our story yesterday we received images from an anonymous source showing that Tesla has already begun testing the production line process on Model Y frames."Tesla is actively testing production equipment at Giga Berlin.
Tesla Giga Berlin begins testing production line equipment on Model Y frames and castings
Tesla has begun testing some of their production line equipment on Model Y frames, indicating a 2021 opening is highly likely.
Guy Fawkes' people are spying on Tesla?
Rolled 3rd tranche of 4 today into Jan 2022 600c (technically closing short legs of spreads), representing 2.5% of my main account.
Unfortunately I missed the 5% dip last Thursday because I brought my Brompton in for servicing a couple hours before market close. That will be the most expensive bike repair of my life!
Unfortunately I missed the 5% dip last Thursday because I brought my Brompton in for servicing a couple hours before market close. That will be the most expensive bike repair of my life!
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
There are an infinite number of ways to look at valuation. One persons perfection is another person's value. It really comes down to how probable you think the unrealized portions of the business are, how profitable you think they will be and how much you want to discount your projections. Some people will even price in the probability that it might become cheaper between now and then.
When you speak of forward p/e's in the triple digits, that just reminds me why I don't particularly like P/E's as a valuation metric. At least not for fast growing companies. I recall a time, I think it was in the early 90's, when people were saying the S&P 500 valuations were worrisome because the average p/e was something like 12.6 while the long-term historical average was something like 9. Of course P/E's are relative to a lot of things and cannot mean much of anything on their own.
You made it tough to just click a reaction. I disagree with the italics and agree with the bold. The stock is not priced for perfection, even without Robotaxi. See @StarFoxisDown! 's post just before yours... 100% growth in 2021, 100% growth in 2022, etc. The SP will not stay flat for years again. I am betting (literally) it will be making new highs by January.
Just to be clear, I do not think P/E or even forward P/E is a good metric to value a company in a hypergrowth period, especially when there are catalysts that have potential to have profound effects on earnings within that time span. It's incredibly dumb and how you get left behind as a investor if you're waiting on the P/E to get into a "normal" range.
I'm talking about Tesla's P/E and forward P/E because it's the last traditional Wall St metric that bears and naysayers could point to and say "Look at how overvalued the stock is!" when in reality, if the stock were to stay at this level for another 2 quarter, the P/E would actually become support in driving the stock price higher.
larmor
Active Member
NKLA makes and sells shares. TSLA makes cars, batteries, and solar cells, and software.
I like to be complicated.
I guess it seems like that growth is expected. Maybe not at $600 I suppose, but more in the 7s/8s. I don't that it wouldn't continue to go up but can we justify a $1500-3k a share just on auto growth? I'm not bearish at all, I just like to be conservative and to be surprised.Edit. If we "only" have an industry leading L3 self driving system then that will be enough to justify a far higher price. Same if/when Tesla is able to become a real player in battery production. So robotaxi isn't the only path I see.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I like to be complicated.
Well the key thing to point out is "Auto". Just to point out again...Tesla's operating margin already rivals the best in the auto industry and they're only just now getting to 200k P/D quarterly rate.....Just imagine how much operational leverage and economies of scale kicks in when Tesla is pumping out 2-3 million cars a year out of just Fremont, Shanghai, Austin, and Berlin. Tesla's operating margins and profits will be in a class of their own.
Also to point out how impressive Tesla's operating margin is considering they consistently dropped the prices of their vehicles over a 1 and a half year stretch. Now imagine the next years as Fremonts expand a bit, Shanghai expands a lot, Austin/Berlin get ramped....all while no price drops (at least for US thanks to new EV credit).
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InsideEVs - this morning: Tesla Cybertruck: Is Over 1 Million Pre-Orders Even Possible?
Excerpt:
One of the datasets that we've been watching since the reveal now estimates that there are over one million reservations for the Cybertruck. The tracker has over 18,000 entries and extrapolates the total reservations based on the reservation numbers given to reservation holders. This assumes serial numbering for the Cybertruck — Tesla has done it with their reservations in the past, so there is some precedence that it can work again.
Excerpt:
One of the datasets that we've been watching since the reveal now estimates that there are over one million reservations for the Cybertruck. The tracker has over 18,000 entries and extrapolates the total reservations based on the reservation numbers given to reservation holders. This assumes serial numbering for the Cybertruck — Tesla has done it with their reservations in the past, so there is some precedence that it can work again.
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