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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Tesla shows a concept, and the real thing is better. When Tesla showed flush handles, most people expected them to be regular by production. Everyone else just takes the feel from the concept. There are rare exceptions, like the Toyota FJ cruiser. In this case, VW does not even get the feel right. It looks like a Dodge minivan. Mostly due to them taking the ID4 design language and shoving it in there. If it was grill-less, and had a big VW logo, you could two tone paint it and it would have some slight feeling of the concept. Hopefully this is just some terrible camouflage and its closer to the concept. They pretty much destroyed the ID Buzz.

When the cybertruck comes out, and it looks 95% like the original (including the yoke at least as an option), the cycle will be complete.
 
Chevy Bolt is a compliance car still selling in compliance numbers. About 25k units per year in the USA since introduced. Not having $7.5k credit and competing against LEAF/Niro EV/Kona EV with $7.5k credit does more to make GM offer $10k discounts than $40k Model 3 without Fed Credit.

Consultancy Alix Partners recently did a dealership study. It found on average a dealer made $1300 profit on service for every new car sold. Not revenue, profit. You can easily pad $1300 in extra profit on BEVs for dealerships vs ICEv. Dealer resistance is lack of knowledge. Ford dealers seem to be selling Mach-e just fine. Like ICEv compelling EVs get sold crappy ones sit on dealer lots.

Yes the "also rans" will likely sell in those numbers.

Most people want normal interiors. Steering Wheel AND Instrument Cluster. Grab handles, sunglasses holders, volume knobs, leather seats vs superior networks they will rarely if every use. FSD that is perpetually coming soon. Hands free Supercruise and similar will be more than good enough for many.

If driving 600 miles plus daily is regular for you then Tesla is definitely your EV.

The unveiling and introduction of S3XY hasn't collapsed demand for the rest of the auto industry. Neither the unveiling of Cybertruck.

I agree by 2040 Tesla will have the highest automotive market share in the USA and the world. But it won't be anywhere near 100%. Not everyone has the same priorities and taste as Elon Musk. There will be room for others to sell BEVs profitably.
I don't see how anyone can still defend GM. I was hoping they might learn from the Bolt which is the excuse the GM apologist's use to justify the $9k loss before the deep discounts. Love the Corvette and would liked to have seen an EV version. Very disappointed that after 4 years of the Bolt, GM feels the maximum charging speed for the Lyriq at 150kW adequate. It's the lack of forward thinking that I've lost all hope for GM to survive the decade.
I posted this on the Bolt forum as possible reasons why the incumbents can't seem to field a compelling contender and more importantly survive. Until they address/adopt all these Tesla advantages, they will continue to fall further and further behind.

Legacy assumed Tesla was not a threat so without Tesla,
  • EV's would prove once again, not ready for prime time, technically, financially, viability, public perception.
  • Big oil has a huge influence on Automotive
  • The culture of established brands is slow to change
  • Fiscal prudence to support profitable product lineups rather than non-profitable
  • Corporate boards measure success 1 quarter at a time. Results in myopic planning.
Now you factor in the Tesla effect,
  • Innovating faster
  • Better technology
  • Understands that BEV's are software dependent
  • Able to take risks due to size/youth (Cybertruck)
  • Vision to see Supercharging was a necessity, not a luxury
  • Could go all in on BEV's without risking or cannibalizing existing golden egg
  • More efficient manufacturing due to innovations
  • Vertical Integration, various advantages from costs to improvement cycles and supply chain
  • David vs. Goliath underdog fan club. People are starting see through the FUD
  • Fixed pricing, better buying experience
  • Elon Musk
  • Better understanding of product demographic (e-Silverado should have been before the Bolt)
  • Future generations look to Tesla as an aspirational brand. Kids get it.
  • Compelling products
  • Superior specs
  • Safest vehicles available
  • More energy dense batteries (300 Wh/Kg)
  • More cost effective batteries (cost/KWh ~$60 with 4680's)
  • Pulls top talent from all facets of the industry. Legacy's are 3rd, 4th, 5th choices after Tesla/SpaceEx
  • Has SpaceEx rocket scientists at their disposal for innovative tech, metallurgy, production, etc.
  • Understood that batteries were the single most critical supply line and invested in Giga1 in 2014. Legacy laughed.
  • Branding without advertising is envied
  • Demand exceeds production, without advertising
  • Reputation as the leader in BEV's. Nobody's even close.
  • Tesla is synonymous with BEV's like Kleenex is to tissue
  • Invented and mastered OTA upgrades (look at China recall, fixed 300k cars over the weekend)
  • Most efficient drivetrain, aero, batteries
  • Best range and MPGe for similar vehicles
  • Global player and expanding market (see Silk Road Supercharger route)
  • First and only non-Chinese owned factory in China
  • Industry leading revenue to debt ratio
  • $20B cash on hand, soon to overtake GM without the debt
  • Not burdened with aging, underutilized infrastructure of factories
  • Pension/health care/Union obligations either minimal or non-existent
  • Light on their feet and can switch directions quickly (Model 3 motor, heat pump)
  • Not burdened with dealer franchise network middleman
  • Diversified revenue streams from Superchargers, Tesla Energy, Software
  • Industry leading autonomy with exponentially more real world miles of data and 5th most powerful supercomputer on Earth
  • Lowest depreciation of any BEV
  • Best customer satisfaction
  • Best long distance BEV based on cost and time charging
  • Quickest production car in the world
  • Improves cars as better features, processes, specifications become available rather than holding till model year refresh
  • Most American made car you can buy
 
Will be interested to see the closing cross volume this afternoon.
If we are big up or down would give an indication of rebalancing or window dressing.
Certainly favoring the big up, but will wish for a dip to buy some more.
Reported and confirmed (via twitter) that LR refresh Model S are being delivered. This is giving me hope for a blow out P&D!
 
about 8-9 new ETFs have bought TSLA in rapid succession over the last 3 weeks. This is a break from the plateau we were in between February and May. The last number I looked at in late May was 268, almost unchanged from 3 months ago.
View attachment 674429
The momentum continues at a blistering speed. +8 in 2 weeks again. Would help explain the current rally.
Also note the number of ETF having TSLA in the top 15 position. From 131 2 weeks ago to 149 today. Maybe the current rally lent a hand? Maybe some increased their exposure?
1625062061198.png
 
MODERATOR to ALL:

STOP posting ancient (4? 5? 6? years old) reports as if they were newsworthy….like the one below - even if some blog site does. It diminishes this thread and confuses the story. Post kept up so that this admonition is noticed
.


Volvo has always been known to be one of the 'safest' cars in the world....Could you imagine if this was Tesla? How much FUD would be thrown???

 
I don't see how anyone can still defend GM. I was hoping they might learn from the Bolt which is the excuse the GM apologist's use to justify the $9k loss before the deep discounts. Love the Corvette and would liked to have seen an EV version. Very disappointed that after 4 years of the Bolt, GM feels the maximum charging speed for the Lyriq at 150kW adequate. It's the lack of forward thinking that I've lost all hope for GM to survive the decade.
I posted this on the Bolt forum as possible reasons why the incumbents can't seem to field a compelling contender and more importantly survive. Until they address/adopt all these Tesla advantages, they will continue to fall further and further behind.

Legacy assumed Tesla was not a threat so without Tesla,
  • EV's would prove once again, not ready for prime time, technically, financially, viability, public perception.
  • Big oil has a huge influence on Automotive
  • The culture of established brands is slow to change
  • Fiscal prudence to support profitable product lineups rather than non-profitable
  • Corporate boards measure success 1 quarter at a time. Results in myopic planning.
Now you factor in the Tesla effect,
  • Innovating faster
  • Better technology
  • Understands that BEV's are software dependent
  • Able to take risks due to size/youth (Cybertruck)
  • Vision to see Supercharging was a necessity, not a luxury
  • Could go all in on BEV's without risking or cannibalizing existing golden egg
  • More efficient manufacturing due to innovations
  • Vertical Integration, various advantages from costs to improvement cycles and supply chain
  • David vs. Goliath underdog fan club. People are starting see through the FUD
  • Fixed pricing, better buying experience
  • Elon Musk
  • Better understanding of product demographic (e-Silverado should have been before the Bolt)
  • Future generations look to Tesla as an aspirational brand. Kids get it.
  • Compelling products
  • Superior specs
  • Safest vehicles available
  • More energy dense batteries (300 Wh/Kg)
  • More cost effective batteries (cost/KWh ~$60 with 4680's)
  • Pulls top talent from all facets of the industry. Legacy's are 3rd, 4th, 5th choices after Tesla/SpaceEx
  • Has SpaceEx rocket scientists at their disposal for innovative tech, metallurgy, production, etc.
  • Understood that batteries were the single most critical supply line and invested in Giga1 in 2014. Legacy laughed.
  • Branding without advertising is envied
  • Demand exceeds production, without advertising
  • Reputation as the leader in BEV's. Nobody's even close.
  • Tesla is synonymous with BEV's like Kleenex is to tissue
  • Invented and mastered OTA upgrades (look at China recall, fixed 300k cars over the weekend)
  • Most efficient drivetrain, aero, batteries
  • Best range and MPGe for similar vehicles
  • Global player and expanding market (see Silk Road Supercharger route)
  • First and only non-Chinese owned factory in China
  • Industry leading revenue to debt ratio
  • $20B cash on hand, soon to overtake GM without the debt
  • Not burdened with aging, underutilized infrastructure of factories
  • Pension/health care/Union obligations either minimal or non-existent
  • Light on their feet and can switch directions quickly (Model 3 motor, heat pump)
  • Not burdened with dealer franchise network middleman
  • Diversified revenue streams from Superchargers, Tesla Energy, Software
  • Industry leading autonomy with exponentially more real world miles of data and 5th most powerful supercomputer on Earth
  • Lowest depreciation of any BEV
  • Best customer satisfaction
  • Best long distance BEV based on cost and time charging
  • Quickest production car in the world
  • Improves cars as better features, processes, specifications become available rather than holding till model year refresh
  • Most American made car you can buy
So..... you're saying it's a close run thing?
 
RMI says we're winning the race to deploy battery storage for renewable energy.

The California Blackout That Wasn’t | CleanTechnica

"While it hasn’t added many gas plants, California has been aggressively adding batteries. An ISO document released in May states that a total of 675 MW of batteries were expected to come online between June 1, 2020 and June 1, 2021, and another 343 MW by July 1. This does not account for many of the batteries at homes and businesses, as resources on the customer side of the meter are not measured in California ISO’s figures.​
"This increase is confirmed by the dashboard on the California ISO’s website, which shows battery discharge reaching 773 MW on June 18, 2021. This is much more than the 310 MW of discharge on August 15, 2020."​

Way to go Tesla with the bigger batteries! Let's do some more! :D

Cheers!
 
I don't see how anyone can still defend GM. I was hoping they might learn from the Bolt which is the excuse the GM apologist's use to justify the $9k loss before the deep discounts. Love the Corvette and would liked to have seen an EV version. Very disappointed that after 4 years of the Bolt, GM feels the maximum charging speed for the Lyriq at 150kW adequate. It's the lack of forward thinking that I've lost all hope for GM to survive the decade.
I posted this on the Bolt forum as possible reasons why the incumbents can't seem to field a compelling contender and more importantly survive. Until they address/adopt all these Tesla advantages, they will continue to fall further and further behind.

Legacy assumed Tesla was not a threat so without Tesla,
  • EV's would prove once again, not ready for prime time, technically, financially, viability, public perception.
  • Big oil has a huge influence on Automotive
  • The culture of established brands is slow to change
  • Fiscal prudence to support profitable product lineups rather than non-profitable
  • Corporate boards measure success 1 quarter at a time. Results in myopic planning.
Now you factor in the Tesla effect,
  • Innovating faster
  • Better technology
  • Understands that BEV's are software dependent
  • Able to take risks due to size/youth (Cybertruck)
  • Vision to see Supercharging was a necessity, not a luxury
  • Could go all in on BEV's without risking or cannibalizing existing golden egg
  • More efficient manufacturing due to innovations
  • Vertical Integration, various advantages from costs to improvement cycles and supply chain
  • David vs. Goliath underdog fan club. People are starting see through the FUD
  • Fixed pricing, better buying experience
  • Elon Musk
  • Better understanding of product demographic (e-Silverado should have been before the Bolt)
  • Future generations look to Tesla as an aspirational brand. Kids get it.
  • Compelling products
  • Superior specs
  • Safest vehicles available
  • More energy dense batteries (300 Wh/Kg)
  • More cost effective batteries (cost/KWh ~$60 with 4680's)
  • Pulls top talent from all facets of the industry. Legacy's are 3rd, 4th, 5th choices after Tesla/SpaceEx
  • Has SpaceEx rocket scientists at their disposal for innovative tech, metallurgy, production, etc.
  • Understood that batteries were the single most critical supply line and invested in Giga1 in 2014. Legacy laughed.
  • Branding without advertising is envied
  • Demand exceeds production, without advertising
  • Reputation as the leader in BEV's. Nobody's even close.
  • Tesla is synonymous with BEV's like Kleenex is to tissue
  • Invented and mastered OTA upgrades (look at China recall, fixed 300k cars over the weekend)
  • Most efficient drivetrain, aero, batteries
  • Best range and MPGe for similar vehicles
  • Global player and expanding market (see Silk Road Supercharger route)
  • First and only non-Chinese owned factory in China
  • Industry leading revenue to debt ratio
  • $20B cash on hand, soon to overtake GM without the debt
  • Not burdened with aging, underutilized infrastructure of factories
  • Pension/health care/Union obligations either minimal or non-existent
  • Light on their feet and can switch directions quickly (Model 3 motor, heat pump)
  • Not burdened with dealer franchise network middleman
  • Diversified revenue streams from Superchargers, Tesla Energy, Software
  • Industry leading autonomy with exponentially more real world miles of data and 5th most powerful supercomputer on Earth
  • Lowest depreciation of any BEV
  • Best customer satisfaction
  • Best long distance BEV based on cost and time charging
  • Quickest production car in the world
  • Improves cars as better features, processes, specifications become available rather than holding till model year refresh
  • Most American made car you can buy
Nominated for “Posts of Particular Merit” thread. This list is a very useful reference to have when discussing Tesla’s advantages with others. Thank you for compiling that! There are some more to add (like autopilot, safety and AI) but you did very well. Maybe we can crowdsource more to add and then make a complete list over there.
 
The momentum continues at a blistering speed. +8 in 2 weeks again. Would help explain the current rally.
Also note the number of ETF having TSLA in the top 15 position. From 131 2 weeks ago to 149 today. Maybe the current rally lent a hand? Maybe some increased their exposure?
View attachment 679638
Do you have any views/guess on how underweight BM funds overall might be?
 
Do you have any views/guess on how underweight BM funds overall might be?
I only have a rough comparison between the big names in term of valuation. With high growth comes high valuation and "uncertainty", which from our point of view is just a lack of information on the fund side.
NFLX: 289 ETF own this stock
FB: 371
MSFT: 448
AMZN: 381
AAPL: 417
So, I think being "underweight" is relative to how much the growth story has materialized. As TSLA keeps "maturing" with increasing earnings, I'd say we have another 100 ETFs to bring on board. This assumes things are similar on the mutual fund side. So yeah, about 33% of them are underweight.
 
I decided to look into the S&P 500 for the first time today, because I'm bored and waiting for the P&D report, and found something interesting!

Yahoo Finance SPY:

Screen Shot 2021-06-30 at 7.56.59 AM.png


You could consider that the time period of 4/1997 - 2/2009 had no growth in the S&P 500 if you were looking at it on 2/1/2009. After thinking about it a bit and searching around, I made an inference about online monetization. 1998 was the introduction of the first keyword auction for search. 1998 was, also, the introduction of the 1st multi-tenant SaaS app. 10 years later, they were both matured as primary ways for companies to monetize their products and services on the internet. If you circle back to the S&P 500, Google got added to the S&P 500 in 3/2006. Amazon was 11/2005. Apple was 1982, but the iPhone was introduced in 1/2007. Netflix is 12/2010. Facebook was 12/2013.

Since 2/2009: the S&P 500 it's increased by a multiple of 5.79 to today from 2/2009. Here's some more info on the history of the S&P 500.

Tesla was added to the S&P 500 in 12/2020.

If you look forward...internet companies have had an incredible effect on the S&P 500 and some of these companies have been incredible to its performance. Do you think Tesla and, maybe other companies such as a Twitter which is beginning to monetize this year in terms of SaaS, going to be the next group that leads forward alongside, maybe, fintech? space? etc?