Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

Here‘s a take on Didi’s troubles in China that I haven’t seen here, and which may help explain concerns around Tesla and other companies collecting data in China:

Didi’s removal from China’s app stores marks a growing crackdown

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Briefly, the concern may not be about privacy, nor data locality — rather the Chinese government might demand access to all the data Tesla collects in China. Would Tesla be willing to comply, thus becoming complicit in China’s use of that data? Suppose that puts Tesla in breach of USA law, crafted to punish companies that help the Chinese government repress its own people? This could quickly become political, and tricky.

That said, my outlook as a long-term investor remains positive.

It’s simply the cost of doing business in China. Apple gave up control of its Chinese user data to the Chinese government, and no one cared in the US.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Mercedes S-Class interior.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Of course his tweet is about doge. I like this one better:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1412480029599027203

 

[Krugerrand]

Germanys LR M3 also have the LRW in the URL.

Edit: Snooped around a bit an noticed:
Difference between used (35k km on the odometer, 1 year old) & brand new is just 1000€. For the brand new one you will still be eligible for 6k government-subsidies. So the new is in fact cheaper than the used one....

Appreciating asset. And everyone laughed.

 

[JustSaying]

When is the Tesla annual shareholder meeting? as I remember it was 7/7/20 last year?

Last year they announced on Aug 21 that the meeting would be on Sept 22. Notice was 31 days before the meeting.
Tesla IR link for last year's annual shareholder date announcement

Elon's last tweet, however, indicated the meeting would possibly be late July or in August. If august is on the table we should see an announcement any day now
Elon tweet on possible date of shareholder meeting possibly end of July or in august

I'm guessing we should get an announcement this month with a meeting to take place late August

Thanks, I think it was rescheduled from 7/7/20 to coincide with the "battery day?"
I just checked my old email and I got the 2020 proxy info on 6/3/20 with a scheduled meeting date on 7/7/20. It was held on 6/11 in 2019.
Do you still need 25 days from the proxy mailing date to the meeting date? (It's been a few years since I audited S&P 500 public companies and their "beans")

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Thanks, I think it was rescheduled from 7/7/20 to coincide with the "battery day?"
I just checked my old email and I got the 2020 proxy info on 6/3/20 with a scheduled meeting date on 7/7/20. It was held on 6/11 in 2019.
Do you still need 25 days from the proxy mailing date to the meeting date? (It's been a few years since I audited any S&P 500 public companies "beans")

Yeah if I remember correctly it was pushed back because they wanted to have more people attend and it was due to covid restrictions that they delayed the meeting.

A quick Google search indicates a minimum of 10 days notice and a max of 60 days notice prior to a shareholder meeting.

 

[JustSaying]

Yeah if I remember correctly it was pushed back because they wanted to have more people attend and it was due to covid restrictions that they delayed the meeting.

A quick Google search indicates a minimum of 10 days notice and a max of 60 days notice prior to a shareholder meeting.

Thanks...

 

[Nocturnal]

Mercedes S-Class interior.

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Remember the FUD from when the Model 3 launched about how the giant screen was distracting and so dangerous that it should be banned? "Looks so ugly. They just stuck a big tablet on the dash." LMAO.

 

[JustSaying]

Could not help myself….too funny

https://twitter.com/x/status/1412391677076115458

Wow, how did you get my old picture? (I was a little thinner then)

 

[jbcarioca]

Skoda stopped making the Citigo-e last year. Apparently it was "too popular"? Here's a story from September 2020...

VW & Škoda small electric city cars too popular | electrive.com

www.electrive.com

It definitely makes sense for VAG to eliminate their best products.

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1412534204491960321

Same desire here…

Gary Black thought that was the chart before last years’ stock split.

Anyone for scraping off the barnacles?

 

[insaneoctane]

Mercedes S-Class interior.

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Gives “S-class” a new meaning doesn’t it…

 

[Singuy]

Gary Black thought that was the chart before last years’ stock split.

Anyone for scraping off the barnacles?

I remember a lot of red before the stock split. Stock was going pretty high until after knock out earnings. Then it went down down down at least 10+% until the stock split announcement.

 

[Prunesquallor]

After hours semi-OT. Despite major Texas grid F-up, the trend is our friend.

Texas likely to add record utility-scale solar capacity in the next two years - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

 

[peletourneau]

Lol, and it was called a "Super-Charger" by Mattel - This story gets deeper every day.
Heck, did they mention FSD under "Safe Driving Rules" too?

View attachment 681977

Hey! I had one of those! Oh the memories.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Gary Black thought that was the chart before last years’ stock split.

Anyone for scraping off the barnacles?

Split was announced after hours on August 11th.

EDIT: Gary said weekly candles, so here are those.

 

[joh01652]

I'd like to initiate a discussion about a very important date that is coming up. We don't know when it will be, but it will potentially be a major factor in Tesla's next stock price move. I'm talking about the filing of the Preliminary Proxy for the ASM. As most of us here know, Tesla needs to get shareholder approval for the authorization of more treasury shares. Whether the shares will be used (partially) for another stock dividend or are just enough for operational purposes, that remains to be seen. I, however, am quite sure most of the shares will go toward another share dividend. When will the Preliminary Proxy be filed? That depends on when the ASM will be held. I can't identify any specific information about the date but my memory is that early September has been mentioned here on TMC. Generally, the PP must be filed with SEC at least 10 days before the actual actual proxies are sent out. The actual (final) proxies must be sent out 30-40 days before the ASM. As an example, let's say the ASM is scheduled for Wednesday, September 8, 2021. In this case, the likely window for the PP is around July 20-30. I feel that the mere request for additional share authorization in black in white will move the stock, well in advance of the actual ASM.

What is the likely size of a split? IMO, it could be anywhere from 5 to 10 for 1. I believe a big factor here is the potential (I would say inevitable) inclusion in the DOW 30 Industrials. Currently, TSLA is the 6th largest public company, by market cap. The DOW is a stock-price weighted index, as such, often companies have to split their stock in order to get the appropriate initial weighting. For example, AAPL split its stock 7 for 1 when it joined the DOW 30. What would be the appropriate initial weighting for TSLA? I don't know but, the current median of the 30 stocks is shared by JNJ and AXP, at ~$170. So a 5-1 split (i.e. 4 share dividend) would theoretically produce a post-split price of around $135-140. A 10 for 1 split would put the post-split price around $70, a very affordable price for smaller investors. In any case, it will be interesting, and exciting. Thoughts?

In order for TSLA to be included in the Dow 30, does it need ratings upgrades first? Or can TSLA obtain upgrades after they've been included? I just now took a cursory glance at all the Dow components in my Schwab account, and they are all rated much higher than TSLA (except for Boeing, of course, due to their many recent troubles).

At the moment Moody's gives TSLA a Ba3 credit rating, which is "speculative" grade. What inclusion rules need to be met for TSLA to be added to the Dow?

 

[Siksfive]

Contrary to VW's boast, I believe they have not caught up to Tesla's OTA technology, let alone done anything first.

I remember reading or hearing somewhere (maybe from Sandy Munro) that Tesla is the only automaker with highly integrated in-car microprocessors and software, which allows Tesla to update damn-near anything and fix problems over-the-air that you'd think would be hardware problems, not software.

Cars from other automakers, including VW (I think), have dozens of microprocessors from different suppliers, each with its own software that can barely talk to the others, if at all. These automakers don't have the in-house software expertise to integrate the whole system like Tesla does, according to my memory. (Maybe someone can verify this or correct me.)

So when VW says they now have OTA updates, what exactly can they update? GM and other "high-volume manufacturers" have had limited OTA updating (of navigation or entertainment data) for years, so VW is not first with that. It is not the same as Tesla's capability

Contrary to VW's boast, I believe they have not caught up to Tesla's OTA technology, let alone done anything first.

I remember reading or hearing somewhere (maybe from Sandy Munro) that Tesla is the only automaker with highly integrated in-car microprocessors and software, which allows Tesla to update damn-near anything and fix problems over-the-air that you'd think would be hardware problems, not software.

Cars from other automakers, including VW (I think), have dozens of microprocessors from different suppliers, each with its own software that can barely talk to the others, if at all. These automakers don't have the in-house software expertise to integrate the whole system like Tesla does, according to my memory. (Maybe someone can verify this or correct me.)

So when VW says they now have OTA updates, what exactly can they update? GM and other "high-volume manufacturers" have had limited OTA updating (of navigation or entertainment data) for years, so VW is not first with that. It is not the same as Tesla's capability.

I can comfirm from personal experience that Ford circa 2018 was a cluster f%$& wrt software integration. Im sure its not much better (takes many years to change this type of approach due to product cycles, component reuse and corporate culture/strategy). Worked in prod dev in electrical group in 2018. One of reasons i left was the percieved disadvantage i seen Ford had compared to Tesla with their software architecture (among many other disadvantages). At same time moved all in on TSLA. Their approach is to own the overall system but heavily rely on many different suppliers for all the sub systems electrical integration (both from SW and HW perspective). Suppliers milk the system for any simple changes, turnover time for changes is brutal, root causing between systems is mess. Can guarantee Teslas approach is miles ahead of where legacy is at. Upstarts like Rivian are taking the Tesla approach (much more vertical intigration with HW and SW). Dont see legacy fairing too well at this game.

 

[nativewolf]

It’s simply the cost of doing business in China. Apple gave up control of its Chinese user data to the Chinese government, and no one cared in the US.

Some forum members just have not "woke" regarding China. China has a communist party that has or is : committing genocide against muslims, supported Pol Pot and khemer rouge, supports North Koreas prison state, enforced mandatory abortions and sterilization of millions MILLIONS of women. Didi, Alibaba, Queen of Recycling and so so many others have been hammered and even sent to concentration camps. And why? Because it is the will of someone in communist party, always very nationalistic and getting much worse. They make ugly americans look like the best model world citizen. Woke up.

Tesla can operate in China and help fulfill the mission but I have huge doubts that it ever creates profit for Tesla. It is almost inevitable that Tesla runs afoul of the communist party at some point. Either over FSD, data, or global positioning or something new we have nor foreseen. Hopefully in 3 years China is a tiny fraction of a large and robust Tesla story.

 

[Wicket]

I keep a list of automotive tickers next to TSLA in my watchlist and today they mostly dropped 2.5 to 4%. In general, I credit sector correlation movement pretty strongly. So that's my thesis for the drop today, even ahead of a reasonable guess that it was ongoing sell on the news on Friday. I doubt FUD pieces do much when it is just recapitulation of old news.

The only thing that mildly concerns me about Tesla short-term at the moment is the potential to hit the demand slump in China from the problems earlier as that wriggles through the pipeline, but given Europe has been so starved of product they have an obvious remedy for the immediate problem (if it exists at all).

Longer term I still only really worry about battery supply and raw inputs. The EV adoption curve being exponential and the likely gutting of how many ICE models are available should ensure that Tesla grows comfortably alongside its marketshare (give or take). The worst case with 4680 it seems to me is that they simply delay some of the sugar. That's probably easier in regard to things like anode silicon composition than DBE though (since that has significant cap ex implications).

I have a long term share count target for TSLA that I could have picked up with margin but it has always been just a little too much for my risk tolerance. I'm fine seeing under 600 again because I'd be prepared to grab those final shares then given overall I'm very satisfied with the company's performance (and I never was particularly optimistic about FSD timeline though I'm extremely optimistic about long-term value from it).