Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Criscmt]

Bill is pretty sure about 4680s in a battery pack that he worked on. May or may not be this picture with all the signature and it really doesn't matter. What matters is 4680 is ready for prime time.

What's are the indications, from these tweets or reddit posts, are you seeing that 4680 is ready for prime time?

 

[Criscmt]

“The 4680 packs look nothing like this”

Confirmation that 4680 packs exist!!

If they are in test vehicles, doesn't that imply pack existence is highly likely already?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

So to summarize that photo of the battery pack - it's either a 4680 battery or it's not, and it may or may not be structural.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

My First Job In Construction

As a first-year electrical apprentice I was sent out to build the new Fred Meyers department store at Bonney Lake, Washington. The job turned out to be one of the few jobs in my career that I was there from start to finish. In retrospect, this job profoundly shaped my view of the construction industry.

At the start of the job, I was unaware that the General Foreman had just completed six identical stores. The organization that was built into the construction scheduling was truly impressive; the equipment came off the delivery trucks in the exact order it was needed. At the seventh iteration, these guys were dialed-in.

Once I had finished this construction job, reality hit me in the face. The overwhelming majority of construction is one-off design. The organization and execution of of the Fred Meyers department store was indeed an anomaly.

Recently, we’ve seen evidence of pre-fabricated Superchargers; leaving me pondering the memories of my first construction experience. Now, Tesla has announced the new housing project in Austin, Texas. It is only their first iteration—the machine that builds the machine. Consider renewable energy, energy storage, HVAC, air-filtration and quality, and energy arbitrage.

Elon is going to disrupt the construction industry; he is always three steps ahead of me—even in my forte.

I see this being just like the auto industry. The established players should already be doing this but they won't (at least panels). They're comfortable doing what they're used to doing and won't change.

In my area they're building new tracts of housing all over the place and not one of them is installing solar. Just bare naked roofs with sun all over them.

Elon was able to do the near impossible by disrupting the auto industry, and do so with relatively little funds. Near impossible because no one had successfully launched a new car company in this country for a 100 years. If Elon can do that, what's he going to be able to do in the housing industry with 17 billion in the bank and rapidly increasing cashflow?

I've got my butter melting on the stove and the popcorn is popping.

 

[wipster]

My First Job In Construction

As a first-year electrical apprentice I was sent out to build the new Fred Meyers department store at Bonney Lake, Washington. The job turned out to be one of the few jobs in my career that I was there from start to finish. In retrospect, this job profoundly shaped my view of the construction industry.

At the start of the job, I was unaware that the General Foreman had just completed six identical stores. The organization that was built into the construction scheduling was truly impressive; the equipment came off the delivery trucks in the exact order it was needed. At the seventh iteration, these guys were dialed-in.

Once I had finished this construction job, reality hit me in the face. The overwhelming majority of construction is one-off design. The organization and execution of of the Fred Meyers department store was indeed an anomaly.

Recently, we’ve seen evidence of pre-fabricated Superchargers; leaving me pondering the memories of my first construction experience. Now, Tesla has announced the new housing project in Austin, Texas. It is only their first iteration—the machine that builds the machine. Consider renewable energy, energy storage, HVAC, air-filtration and quality, and energy arbitrage.

Elon is going to disrupt the construction industry; he is always three steps ahead of me—even in my forte.

Excites the hell out of me! I've been wanting them to do something like this for the last several years. As you know Jack1956 (nice year btw), the Eastern side of Washington State is perfect territory for projects like this. Can't wait to see what a success this will be so they can bring it a few stares north!

 

[Singuy]

What's are the indications, from these tweets or reddit posts, are you seeing that 4680 is ready for prime time?

Bill is pretty confident that this pack part of the signing ceremony is the 4680. TheMightyFuji is saying that it's not, but he also mentioned there were more than 1 signing ceremony. So I'm taking it as Bill confirming there was a signing ceremony done with the 4680s..the specific one in the picture is questionable. Also TheMightyFuji could be full of S since we know how Bill is. He's also a straight shooter.

 

[Criscmt]

TSLA dynamics, compared to other high growth stocks, and the "published" Short Interest. Comparison to the trend in stocks like SHOP, AAPL, DOCU.

Several "growth" stocks are closer to ATHs.
I must say, when I say this, I might be cherry picking to fit my bias.
Examples I am looking at SHOP, DOCU. AAPL also is at ATH.
Whether these stocks reaching ATHs is due to short covering or otherwise, I am not sure.

Who were the sellers since Feb?

1. Out of those who tend to take profits when there's a big run up would've either sold into the inclusion in December, and/or even in Jan, Feb this year.
2. It is safe to assume that benchmark funds at best barely had the shares needed to reach the weightage targets.
3. In other words, there shouldn't be many sellers.

Tesla is bucking the trend of the likes of SHOP, DOCU, AAPL. And, these stocks don't have the demand factor that TSLA stock has, factor of BM funds buying, "2" above.
At the same time, the "published" short interest didn't go up.

One possibility would be those who were holding before S&P inclusion started taking more profits with the view the stock will not run up much in the near term, perhaps due to macro fears. But, these guys likely were strong bulls who have been holding the shares with strong conviction in long-term growth of TSLA.
Is it the MMs that are playing shenanigans, at least in the last couple of months? Enabled by lack of big buyers?
If BM funds are still in need of significant number of stocks, I guess, the supply from selling by existing holders is exhausted, and the price will have to rise sharply?

Maybe I am thinking too much, and must compare it to other popular EV stocks like NIO, with which TSLA tends to move together.
Comparing with NIO, TSLA trend is not too different.

EDIT: Per etf.com, as of April 222ETFs were holding 61.8M shares of TSLA. These are not just S&P and BM funds, but include other non-BM funds like ARK funds.
Perhaps, as of now, BM funds have decent amount of TSLA shares, and aren't too short?

 

[Krugerrand]

Bill was the first to say 18650 for Plaid when that went against every fact we thought we knew. This bull is with Bill, and more bullish than ever.

Umm…actually I’ve been screaming 18650s (along with others) for Model S from the beginning of time to today because it’s what Elon and JB and others said REPEATEDLY it would be . Like for real.

 

[UkNorthampton]

So to summarize that photo of the battery pack - it's either a 4680 battery or it's not, and it may or may not be structural.

Schrödinger's battery pack - takes a fire to eject some of the cells for photos?

 

[jschwefel]

View attachment 683512

IDK, but I interpreted this to mean it was a structural pack, but not the 4680 cells. Could it be that Tesla has made a structural, tabless battery pack using the 18650 cells for the Plaid S? Hmmm.

 

[ammulder]

My First Job In Construction

As a first-year electrical apprentice I was sent out to build the new Fred Meyers department store at Bonney Lake, Washington. The job turned out to be one of the few jobs in my career that I was there from start to finish. In retrospect, this job profoundly shaped my view of the construction industry.

At the start of the job, I was unaware that the General Foreman had just completed six identical stores. The organization that was built into the construction scheduling was truly impressive; the equipment came off the delivery trucks in the exact order it was needed. At the seventh iteration, these guys were dialed-in.

Once I had finished this construction job, reality hit me in the face. The overwhelming majority of construction is one-off design. The organization and execution of of the Fred Meyers department store was indeed an anomaly.

Recently, we’ve seen evidence of pre-fabricated Superchargers; leaving me pondering the memories of my first construction experience. Now, Tesla has announced the new housing project in Austin, Texas. It is only their first iteration—the machine that builds the machine. Consider renewable energy, energy storage, HVAC, air-filtration and quality, and energy arbitrage.

Elon is going to disrupt the construction industry; he is always three steps ahead of me—even in my forte.

New construction does seem to make way more sense for the solar roof. The roof shape is known well in advance, there are likely multiple homes in the same subdivision with identical roof shapes… delivering the right tiles and bits should be much easier, installation should go faster with repetition on basically the same roof, they could even prefab larger sections of the roof tiles. And there seems to be plenty of new construction to absorb solarglass capacity (if, I hate to say it, the demand is there). I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Tesla plays down installations on existing homes in favor of new construction as quickly as they can.

 

[SarahsDad]

Nice documentary short film just released about Randy Pobst's winning Pike's Peak Hillclimb in the Tesla Plaid.

 

[Carl Raymond]

So to summarize that photo of the battery pack - it's either a 4680 battery or it's not, and it may or may not be structural.

More weight for "it's neither"... Tesla Facts is of course the highly regarded past contributor to this forum known as "Fact Checking".

https://twitter.com/x/status/1414179244385648648

 

[Criscmt]

1. Failure-to-Deliver: During the two events, during Aug-31-2020 Split, and S&P inclusion.
2. Shorting by retails in the recent times.

@Artful Dodger
This is from fintel.io.
Does this reflect what you were saying about the run-up to $900 in February, where there were too many FTDs and shorts had to be covered?

Also, does this reflect the Short volume by retail (those poor guys who are required to report and do report, as against the MMs who obfuscate the data), again from fintel.io, Daily short volume ratio?

 

[juanmedina]

I'm hoping it's the Cybertruck and Tesla Semi.

Disrupting the pickup and semi markets is absolutely the quickest way to lower transportation emissions for a given kWh value of battery supply.

Bill said not a Cybertruck battery pack and no to a Roadster battery pack.

And he said,:

 

[JRP3]

IDK, but I interpreted this to mean it was a structural pack, but not the 4680 cells. Could it be that Tesla has made a structural, tabless battery pack using the 18650 cells for the Plaid S? Hmmm.

I interpreted it the other way, that it's a 4680 pack but not structural. The post to which he responded asked if it was 4680 and he said "confirmed".

 

[mltv]

Bill said not a Cybertruck battery pack and no to a Roadster battery pack.

And he said,:

View attachment 683570

Me guess if you want to test something, you test it on a proven platform. Why complicate 4680 testing on a new pack and new platform.

 

[adiggs]

If they are in test vehicles, doesn't that imply pack existence is highly likely already?

Yes.

However existence is usually a pretty far distance from production ready, which is also pretty far from production ramp complete / production volumes.

 

[Thekiwi]

Bill said not a Cybertruck battery pack and no to a Roadster battery pack.

And he said,:

View attachment 683570

Replying to that guys tweets - Of course there will be different models of battery packs for different vehicles, for multiple reasons but the most obvious being that different vehicles are different sizes in length wheelbase and width, height etc.

 

[juanmedina]

Me guess if you want to test something, you test it on a proven platform. Why complicate 4680 testing on a new pack and new platform.

IMO that battery pack is a production spec pack and that's why the engineer team and the manufacturing
sign it.

“Prototypes are easy, production is hard.”