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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Goldman Sachs now expects Tesla to report 2Q21 non-GAAP EPS of $0.94 (from $0.84 prior) versus the consensus of $0.96. Delanew expects the price increases and Model Y ramp to have a larger impact on 3Q21 and 4Q21 results.

Goldman Sachs’ new 2021 non-GAAP EPS estimate of $5.00 is above the FactSet consensus at $4.28 and Bloomberg consensus of $4.43.

A new 2022 non-GAAP EPS estimate of $6.50 from the firm compares to the Street at $6.43 (FactSet) and $6.45 (Bloomberg).

In the 2Q EPS preview, Mark Delaney said that “Overall, Tesla has produced 387K vehicles in 1H21 and delivered 386K vehicles globally per company data, which shows in our view that Tesla has sold essentially every vehicle that it has made, and illustrating in our opinion that the company is supply not demand constrained.”

EPS is starting to creep up everywhere. There will be a point where that clicks over into price target revisions. The trigger will probably be the 2022 EPS revision. I think ~$5 for 2021 is pretty close. $6.5 for 22 seems low to me still (I'm around $9 on back of the napkin math). 2022 should be valued around 125x EPS so their $860 PT is roughly in line with it at $6.5. If 2022 EPS gets revised up to $9 at the same 125x, $1,125 PT.

If Q2 comes in over $1.10 EPS, that will change both 2021 and 2022 EPS estimates greatly. That gives a pretty simple pathway to >5 in 2021 and >8 in 2022. If EPS is between .95-1.05 it will likely still fall into expectations of 4.50-5 in 2021 and 6s in 2022. Under .95 will cause both to lower.
 

"The documents reveal that the Model Y SR packs a 60 kWh lithium iron phosphate battery, more commonly abbreviated as an LFP battery.​
"Musk said in February 2021 that Tesla would shift SR vehicles to an iron cathode, and LFP was the option that Tesla went with. The batteries are likely supplied by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co (CATL)."​

Let the spice flow! :D

Cheers!
 
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Ummmm......

 
As for this "friends and TSLA" business, I accepted long ago how in most people's mind "a prophet" will always be someone from at least ten miles away. That is, someone they don't know very well. Something in our DNA seems to prevent us from learning from our peers, parents, etc. as well as we should.

Still, as I started buying TSLA in October/November of 2019 I mentioned the stock and its potential in casual conversation, then, I waited for anyone to carry the conversation further. None did.

Sixteen months later when I gave notice of retirement I alluded to how an investment I had made payed off. There might have been two or three who then asked if it was Tesla. To those I responded, "Yes, and it is still not too late to get in."

My boss, who I worked with for two decades, and with whom I had over the years discussed stocks, investing and such was probably hit hardest. When I retired he was the only one who wasn't in the least bit congratulatory.

I've always been willing to help anyone who is open to receiving whatever I might offer, and, I don't take it personally when folks choose to ignore advice, often enough to their detriment in short order. (I am married after all, so get lots of practice in this)

Everyone must find their own way through life. As long as I make the effort to help I will have no regrets, and always accept their choices as being the best ones they thought they could make at the time.

I've had a similar experience. A friend of mine was used to me being the investment neophyte. I had never invested before Tesla and he kept using an argument from authority (his and some FUDsters) to spew negativity all over TSLA. I was telling him and other friends at $400 pre-split that the stock was going to skyrocket because I had just driven the car, and I knew based on first principles that this thing had no competition and that most people were only a test-drive/ride away from wanting one. It was just obvious to me. What they failed to account for was my historic ability to recognize and see patterns, everything from reality TV (predicted in 91) to songs being sold individually on the Internet (way before iTunes), the interim tech of LaserDiscs and ISDN, and even mass customization for clothing where one of my ideas sent to a clothing company got me a job offer...and I'm a 3D Artist!

Another friend ignored my 'buy TSLA at $400' pre-split advice, citing the usual 1970s view of the stock market with P/E ratios and all of that, and he discounted my advice based on my non-investor status and his presumed authority. I'm sure he watched the stock shoot to the moon at a ceiling of what, $2400+ before it split 1:5? We also had a debate about EVs generally, where he was arguing the FUD position (grid cannot support EVs, TSLA is over-valued, etc.) where I argued that oil is a finite and contested resource and that electricity can be generated using a variety of sustainable methods (solar being the obvious focus). I also talked about the huge benefit of charging at home vs. the inability to pump gas from one's garage or carport. It's inherently a huge advantage of EVs over ICE for those who can install home chargers. We had this debate publicly, and I think I mopped the floor with his 'facts'.

He no longer really talks to me, and I can't help but think his embarrassment/shame over these exchanges and missing my noob (but correct) stock tip had something to do with it. Even smart people I know parrot FUD to me, and I trounce the FUD as best as I can—in part with solid information I read here but also from watching Sandy Munro's videos, a few good YouTubers I like, and data direct from Tesla (such as battery day, sales figures, safety reports). I've also noticed that these same information-averse people tend not to want to see my Tesla in-person, let alone go for a ride. Methinks they fear being wrong or corrected—because they know they will invariably be impressed by the Tesla. You know, the ol' stick-your-head-in-the-sand maneuver.

Progress has a way of dragging people along whether they like it or not. It's just a matter of time. Meanwhile, I think a lot of people just want to 'save face' and will quietly change their opinions without giving anyone the satisfaction of changing their mind. I've never understood this position, because I'm happy to divest myself of incorrect thinking when corrected (after some vetting and further self-interrogation).

Others have used the 'cult' argument against me, but anyone who knows me knows that I'm about the least cult-amenable character they know. I'm a die-hard skeptic and critical thinker, and I'll leave it at that.

Sometimes it's not easy being TSLA green. :D
 
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See two weeks ago people were fearing the economy is going to suffer as 10year tanked with everything else. Now they fear that the economy is over heating as everything tanked due to fear of inflation.

In conclusion, the only way Tsla can go up is if there's once in a century black swan event. Prove me wrong.
 
See two weeks ago people were fearing the economy is going to suffer as 10year tanked with everything else. Now they fear that the economy is over heating as everything tanked due to fear of inflation.

In conclusion, the only way Tsla can go up is if there's once in a century black swan event. Prove me wrong.
Once in a century black swan event - You mean a bunch of $20 cameras doing 3 Dimensional depth perception in a busy parking lot and predicting its own path to anywhere?

Photo credit to Twitter.

E6MUJ_QX0AQ2Lv3
 
I didn't see the /s so here you go.

Also, Tesla CN did a nice video too. It's (Silk Road in a Tesla) now on my bucket list.


Yeah but that's because the EPA is owned by Elon or whatever, as Edmunds heroically uncovered in their stupid tests (and just happened to promote very heavily).


I'll have to look into costs to ship a Cybertruck over.
OT:
You may want to add the solar tonneau cover and fill the bed with 4680's though. What had the beginnings of being the ultimate Tesla Investors thread road trip starting at @Lycanthrope's new digs seems to have hit a snag.

  • Connecting Bucharest to Kazakhstan, a distance of over 3,000 miles, has no superchargers.
  • Some of the Silk Road SuC only have 4 stalls
But we can all meet at the Shanghai factory and do it round trip. Would require leaving with groups of 8 with 1 hour gaps to allow charging before the next group arrives. Carpooling natch'.
Plan on a month in case we want to check out the new SuC at Mt. Everest base camp.
Could maybe get Karen to show up in lieu of the Covid cancelled Iceland meetup. Who wants to call @FactChecking?
 

My brokerage's newsfeed - half hour ago:

Tesla's FSD Beta 9 Is Here And Testers Are Mostly Impressed

3:06 pm ET July 13, 2021 (Benzinga)

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) is working towards fully autonomous cars. The company says every car it sells today comes with the hardware necessary for full self-driving; the software just needs to catch up to the task.

Tesla says an optional software package called "Full Self Driving" for $10,000 that allows the vehicles to make more advanced moves on the road.

Tesla has rolled its FSDBeta program out to a small set of testers who have been sharing their thoughts and experiences across social media. The software has recently been updated to FSD Beta Version 9, which removes the use of radar and relies solely on the car's eight exterior cameras.

Tesla updated the visuals on the in-car display, and people are enjoying the new look. The car can display people, cars, trucks, bikes and even dogs.
Testers are describing the experience as smoother and more confident, noting that the cars, which still aren't fully autonomous, have become better at decision making in many instances.

On YouTube, videos are showing the V9 update in action. A video from YouTube channel Dirty Tesla shows the software successfully navigate a dirt road in the dark of night, successfully completing a left turn.

Another video from James Locke shows a drive from Santa Clarita to Northridge California. The car is able to handle most of the drive on its own, with the driver present monitoring the car and correcting few mistakes.

"Overall FSD Beta v9 did VERY well. It wasn't a perfect drive but we both were super impressed with the behavior and performance of the current FSD beta," James wrote in the description of the video.

But Tesla's FSD Beta V9 is not great for everyone. A video by channel HyperChange shows the Tesla trying to drive into a large concrete pillar around the 17-minute mark in the video. But the driver is doing their job, and stops the car from making the incorrect move.

Benzinga's Take: Overall, Tesla's Version 9 update of FSD Beta seems to be impressing drivers, while showing it's still not quite ready for wide release. Elon Musk said on Twitter that if this release goes well, a wider release for the general public could commence in about a month or so.
 

Goldman Sachs now expects Tesla to report 2Q21 non-GAAP EPS of $0.94 (from $0.84 prior) versus the consensus of $0.96. Delanew expects the price increases and Model Y ramp to have a larger impact on 3Q21 and 4Q21 results.

Goldman Sachs’ new 2021 non-GAAP EPS estimate of $5.00 is above the FactSet consensus at $4.28 and Bloomberg consensus of $4.43.

A new 2022 non-GAAP EPS estimate of $6.50 from the firm compares to the Street at $6.43 (FactSet) and $6.45 (Bloomberg).

In the 2Q EPS preview, Mark Delaney said that “Overall, Tesla has produced 387K vehicles in 1H21 and delivered 386K vehicles globally per company data, which shows in our view that Tesla has sold essentially every vehicle that it has made, and illustrating in our opinion that the company is supply not demand constrained.”
And no change in Price Target. Did they give reason for no change in PT, like attributing it to potentially changing interest rates?
 
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I was turned onto Tesla stock by my brother. I think when it comes time to cash out I may send him a finders fee or buy him something nice.

Many(most) of my friends have laughed at my investment in Tesla with the usual FUD, these are “car guys”. Funny how the automobiles performance has flipped :)

Even the fact that I’m involved in the stock market they have laughed at. I come from perhaps a more laid back history so they think it’s funny someone like me is into the stock market. Even gone as far as saying it’s “sad your into that”. I told them all to buy, for years, finally shot up. After years of them bashing Tesla and Elon I now just rub it in their stupid faces :D
 
I don't know if you guys saw the video where Gali's FSD beta seemingly went toward the pillars, but this work shows the underlying depth maps clearly detecting the pillars. This is bullish to me as again, camera based perception is the main challenge Tesla has to overcome vs. Lidar -sensored competitors.

 
OT:
You may want to add the solar tonneau cover and fill the bed with 4680's though. What had the beginnings of being the ultimate Tesla Investors thread road trip starting at @Lycanthrope's new digs seems to have hit a snag.

  • Connecting Bucharest to Kazakhstan, a distance of over 3,000 miles, has no superchargers.
  • Some of the Silk Road SuC only have 4 stalls
But we can all meet at the Shanghai factory and do it round trip. Would require leaving with groups of 8 with 1 hour gaps to allow charging before the next group arrives. Carpooling natch'.
Plan on a month in case we want to check out the new SuC at Mt. Everest base camp.
Could maybe get Karen to show up in lieu of the Covid cancelled Iceland meetup. Who wants to call @FactChecking?
Russian charging networks are being built up. Mostly CCS (Europe connector). I think it might be doable with just a few granny cable charges en-route

One person commutes from Kirkenes, Norway to Murmansk, with single trip to Moscow (Model S I think) - Lars Georg Fordal - From Norway to Moscow in an electric car, an improbable journey made possible - Bellona.org

Other articles on him describe the networks being built out
 
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Rage 😡;) bought 1 shr at 670. Everyone’s welcome, now the SP will drop more. My guess is that the MMs will manipulate to a 675+/-5 Friday close.
haha. I got tired of the stock being high on monday only to be drug back down to the MM Maxpain by the end of the week so I was TSLA-less since Monday. I sold every single solitary share. I felt like I was in a liferaft and TMC was the ship that was leaving me behind...
Yes yes I know, "Pennies before steamrollers."
But I "gained" over 1.2% more shares buying back today at $670.
Added: I got back in today because while $650 is said to be maxpain, it looks to me like $670 is maxpain when I look at the second chart