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But these are the exact reasons why I am a little confused

If the goal is to have more people with FSD, then why price the product at a price point that leads to consumers subscribing on and off? Shouldn’t the goal be to find a price point where consumers buy it and don’t cancel?

- Option 1: $129/month for 12 months = $1,548
- Option 2: $199/month on and off (6 months) = $1,194

I even call out in my original post that at this price point, I would fall into Option 2 (and 6 months is generous. I’d probably end up at 3 months).

From what I remember, users will do practically anything! It's important to design and analyze an offering, at the get-go and as best as possible, to ensure there aren't any basic gaps like...turning on a subscription on/off/on. If you reverse engineering the use cases from that feature, then on/off/on is likely to happen. What's impossible to tell is how often and by how many...even though you can try to assume based on other experiments run.
 
Yes and despite the fact that they have been selling EVs for quite a while, like GM with the Volt/Bolt. Hope both of those are the first to go under.

Disagree here re VW/ Diess: VW is the only non Chinese established car manufacturer that has unequivocally committed to EV's, investing meaningfully in battery capacity too in order to produce cars at scale. Unlike all others who are just putting out prototypes.
Also, Diess and Elon are /have been on friendly terms for a long time.

On GM I do agree, tho, what with Barra still the CEO and her embarassing Nikola moment - but judging by what is happening so far few seem to be embarassed.
Side note, bonus point for Ford, at least half decent attempt at real prototypes.
 
And to those who only sub during road trips, typically it’s done w family and friends. Imagine the Tesla experience whose never been in one with FSD. It sells itself! Once the trip is done, they talk to their friends and coworkers, etc…..more converts. More profit. And sticks w the mission to accelerate the transition to sustainable yaddiyadda.
It depends as I have yet to take a trip where the wife doesn’t ask me to turn it off. And I must admit our RAV4 Prime is easier to control and smoother than Tesla. I still occasionally get a brake check that is always on the violent side. Lane merges and exits usually causes the car to wander and if I keep a tight hold it shutters as it disengages. If people are merging I was thought to maintain speed so the person meting can decide to go in front or behind you. But my Tesla often slams on the brakes when the car is beside me causing both of us confusion.
 
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Disagree here re VW/ Diess: VW is the only non Chinese established car manufacturer that has unequivocally committed to EV's, investing meaningfully in battery capacity too in order to produce cars at scale. Unlike all others who are just putting out prototypes.
Also, Diess and Elon are /have been on friendly terms for a long time.

On GM I do agree, tho, what with Barra still the CEO and her embarassing Nikola moment - but judging by what is happening so far few seem to be embarassed.
Side note, bonus point for Ford, at least half decent attempt at real prototypes.
I believe Sandy said that the Mach E was the SECOND best system after Tesla, better than all the rest. Also, he has said that Ford’s engineering was superior to VW. He was disappointed in VW On the ID4.
 
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I bought FSD on both my 2019 M3 and 2020 MY. Like many here I have been a bit disappointed with it not being able to autopilot on city streets, but I have been blown away by how well it works navigating city highways, and how much less fatigued I am while doing long road trips because the car does the lion's share of the work.

Elon says in the above Tweet that current autopilot probability of no injury is already above 99.999999% for highway driving. I can unequivocally confirm this, at least in our experience. When we have to navigate through any big busy city (which happens at least once every couple months) I am so impressed with how well the car manages traffic, interchanges, lane splits, construction, merges, etc. FSD is sooo much safer than I can be by myself, because not only do I need to manage traffic and look for road debris, but I also need to look for what lane I need to be in for the next four exits spaced only a half mile apart, while keeping my eye on the person riding my tail and the drivers to my side yelling at their passengers or texting or putting on makeup or whatever.

You take FSD through any big, busy city with fast-moving rush hour traffic and a spaghetti network of roads above, below, and all around you after driving for eight hours, and it's worth every penny because it is truly fully autonomous. In fact, my partner won't even go to Phoenix, AZ (where she has lived) if she can't take the Tesla because she's too nervous of getting into an accident (admittedly, she's a rather poor driver in general, but I'd argue no better or worse than the average person--she readily admits FSD is a better driver than her--and this protects not just her, but others around her, too).

Even if you think you are a good driver (I think I'm a better-than-average driver, never been in an accident), there is no denying that FSD on highways makes the drive safer. One more example: a couple years ago we took off early in the morning for a Grand Canyon day hike. The highway between Flagstaff, AZ, and Grand Canyon is curvy, hilly, and wooded. While rounding a tight sweeping corner, the 2019 M3 suddenly alerted me to take control and abruptly slowed down--it had "seen/sensed" a heard of mule deer crossing the road in the dark before I did.

So yeah, we think FSD is worth every penny. I realize this is just anecdotal, and results may vary, but we feel much safer knowing FSD has our back to some extent. Won't own another car without it.
 
Private sales? yes. Via 3rd party dealers? no. Via Tesla trade-in? — Elon said yes some months ago.




This is not accurate.

It ALWAYS transfers with the car except if ownership of the car has reverted to Tesla at some point.

So if the car goes: 1st owner->3rd party dealer->2nd owner, FSD stays with it.


Where people get confused is sometimes THIS happens:

1st owner-> Tesla (trade in, or lemon buyback).....

Tesla then removes FSD on their back-end system but does not push that change to the car itself immediately.

Car is then sold at auction to a 3rd party dealer, still showing FSD on the car.

The SW update goes out, and it gets removed.

Dealer (or buyer if there was one right after) thinks "Tesla removed FSD from a 3rd party sale!"


This is a case of Teslas internal IT being bad. It's an easy fix... We already KNOW Tesla can insta-push config changes when you ADD a feature.... Buy accel boost and it shows up typically within minutes on the car.... that's just changing a config flag.

REMOVING features, for some reason, they do NOT instapush. It'd be like 2 lines of code to do the same thing they do for removes they do for adds, and it'd fix the issue in 100% of cases where the car has any connectivity- but they've not done it for some reason.



On my 2016 there was a button in settings that enabled it.

Auto-lane-change only comes with EAP or FSD.

Basic AP DOES not include it- but has only existed since ~March 2019.

As of Saturday AM, the app is saying no upgrades are available for my 2015 70D (have lost track of the nomenclature, but assume it is HW1 and/or AP1).

Your car is AP1. It's not capable of upgrading to to FSD.




Because 100% of the value received (whatever that value might be) expires at the end of the month, 100% of the revenue is recognized during that month.

THAT seems the right answer.

They won't recognize it immediately, but will recognize 100% at end of the month the subscription covers.

This avoids the awkwardness of if someone subscribes less than 1 month from when city streets gets wide release (since Tesla lists that as a coming soon even for the subscription).

Someone more GAAP nerd than I is welcome to correct this though.
 
Also, even in the cases where your scenario is correct it's not all gonna be savings doing that. Even assuming both drivers don't have to drive to/from work at the same time this model would add a lot of miles driven.

Let's say family member 1 goes to work at 7 am. He works 30 miles away. After he's got to work the car drives back to pick up family member 2 who works 30 miles in the other direction. After that person is dropped of your car has to get back to the first persons work in the afternoon for the trip home, and then back to the work place of person 2. This basically means the car is driving twice as many miles as the total miles two cars would need to drive. Fine if you have solar charging but if you are paying for your electricity you may now pay more for driving than gas cars.

So to be a real advantage your scenario only works if

1. You have two cars today.

2. Don't need two cars at the same time getting to work

3. That one or both don't need a car during the workday

4. You can charge for free

5. You don't mind that your car is used for robotaxi.

I don't think this scenario fits for more than 1% of current or future Tesla owners. Sure, other variations will work/save for more but to think that this would be a suitable and reasonably immediate way to save for more than a small subset of car owners is way optimistic.
Cheaper than owning two cars? I think the price of the second car was left out of the calculation. About the energy cost, if each person has a 30 mile commute, that's 240 miles a day. If the ICE car gets 30 mpg, that's eight gallons of gas or $24. Electricity for an X will cost about $9. Because the $200 a month is less than payments on a decent second car, this can save a lot. The other workable scenario is if both people work the same hours and their places of work are not too far apart. Then the car goes to workplace one and then workplace two and back home, or it could park at workplace two for the day.
 
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....I still occasionally get a brake check that is always on the violent side. Lane merges and exits usually causes the car to wander and if I keep a tight hold it shutters as it disengages. If people are merging I was thought to maintain speed so the person meting can decide to go in front or behind you. But my Tesla often slams on the brakes when the car is beside me causing both of us confusion.

......, but I have been blown away by how well it works navigating city highways, and how much less fatigued I am while doing long road trips because the car does the lion's share of the work.
Can someone explain this for me. Two COMPLETELY different takes on the same software. I have had an AP loaner and never had issues but I see so many posts with opposite views. I have never heard of AP slamming on the brakes when someone was beside it for example. I am not saying either one is exaggerating. Something is going on causing two different experiences on the same AP. Is it the year the car was made? The version of the hardware?

(If it wasn't the weekend I would not ask.)
 
That might change. If Tesla got a five year old car in trade-in they might have felt that we'll let FSD stay with the car and a buyer might pay a few thousand extra while he would never have bought FSD full price on a five year old car.

Now with subscription there's a much better chance a used car buyer will get FSD. So now there is absolutly no reason for Tesla to pay more for a trade-in with bought FSD than one without.
I don't think it works that way. My understanding when you trade in a Tesla that has FSD assigned to that VIN, the trade in offer is adjusted to reflect that. Whether it's the full retail price of whatever FSD is at the time regardless of what the original purchase price is or some discounted offer purely due to the convenience Tesla is providing, I don't know.
Per Pierre's tweet above, and Elon's response, it's supposed to be some fair offer. It's unique in that even though it's a used vehicle, the functionality or expected lifespan of FSD is unaffected by it's age/use so ideally, on the open market, two identical Tesla's, one with FSD and one without should differ in price the exact amount it would cost to add FSD to the non FSD car.

To your point that Tesla has no reason to pay the owner more because they can add FSD for basically free is irrelevant. They could do that but it would be a sleazeball move on their part and I don't believe they do per the tweet mentioned. That, and a car with FSD is definitely worth more than one without. Curious what insurance companies put as a value on FSD for totaled cars.

As an aside to this discussion, I had a conversation with a Tesla hater that was looking for reasons to not buy a used Tesla and his argument was that you cannot buy a used Tesla from Tesla that does not come with FSD. He didn't want or need it and felt he was paying a premium for something he wouldn't use. And he was correct in his reasoning's. I contacted Tesla via live chat and asked if the FSD could be omitted from any of the cars they had on their site and he assured me it could and it would be discounted the exact price it costs to add it which was ~$10k I think.
This was counter to what I thought would be a better sales tactic where I would publish the cars with a stripped down software package to make the price more attractive and then let the buyer dial in the pain with easy to add software options they wanted. The fact that they paid the owner for the FSD but may not get reimbursed by the new buyer if they make it optional shouldn't matter as they were paid for it originally. I can see Tesla not giving back full value or even full original purchase price but it's just a new software purchase on their books.
 
Can someone explain this for me. Two COMPLETELY different takes on the same software. I have had an AP loaner and never had issues but I see so many posts with opposite views. I have never heard of AP slamming on the brakes when someone was beside it for example. I am not saying either one is exaggerating. Something is going on causing two different experiences on the same AP. Is it the year the car was made? The version of the hardware?

(If it wasn't the weekend I would not ask.)
Ap slams on the brake sometimes when a truck is next to the car sometimes. It happens say once every 50-100 trucks or so. I had it happen to me a handful of times since the 46k miles I owned the car with about 40k miles using EAP.

So you see even if the event is rare, extrapolate that to a few million miles traveled per day from the entire fleet and you will feel like it's a common occurrence as different people will experience it at random times hundreds of times per day.

This goes with ap crashes, fires, trapped people, cars falling off mountains, etc etc as the fleet continues to grow into the multi millions. There will be enough miles driven by a Tesla daily that we will soon see a recording of a model 3 running over Bigfoot and finally put that mystery to rest.
 
Can someone explain this for me. Two COMPLETELY different takes on the same software. I have had an AP loaner and never had issues but I see so many posts with opposite views. I have never heard of AP slamming on the brakes when someone was beside it for example. I am not saying either one is exaggerating. Something is going on causing two different experiences on the same AP. Is it the year the car was made? The version of the hardware?

(If it wasn't the weekend I would not ask.)
I’ve only ever had AP brake aggressively if the vehicle in the adjoining lane is drifting across the line/straddling the line/making a move to cross the line. Situations that I’d let off the pedal myself especially if I’m boxed in with someone in the lane on the other side of me.

AP did brake once when a crow flew across in front of my car - that was impeccable timing on the bird’s part.

Some phantom braking but basically with sun in the camera/the dreaded bridge/overpass shading - the latter rarely happens anymore.

I did have AP this morning limit itself to exactly highway speed because I was driving into the rising sun and it acknowledged that it had reduced visibility - same reduced visibility I had so nothing unusual there.
 
Can someone explain this for me. Two COMPLETELY different takes on the same software. I have had an AP loaner and never had issues but I see so many posts with opposite views. I have never heard of AP slamming on the brakes when someone was beside it for example. I am not saying either one is exaggerating. Something is going on causing two different experiences on the same AP. Is it the year the car was made? The version of the hardware?

(If it wasn't the weekend I would not ask.)
I have a 2018 model 3 and I am completely uncomfortable with how it handles on ramps. It basically just goes until the lane runs out and then hopefully has a spot to merge. There have been so many times that it has behaved poorly that I won’t let it attempt it anymore
 
Can someone explain this for me. Two COMPLETELY different takes on the same software. I have had an AP loaner and never had issues but I see so many posts with opposite views. I have never heard of AP slamming on the brakes when someone was beside it for example. I am not saying either one is exaggerating. Something is going on causing two different experiences on the same AP. Is it the year the car was made? The version of the hardware?

(If it wasn't the weekend I would not ask.)
I have only had one instance where it slammed on the brakes and that was many upgrades ago. What I have found it doesn't like is when you are on a multi-lane highway and an 18 wheeler comes into the lane beside you (e.g. it entered the freeway and is now moving from the entrance to the right lane, you are in the left lane) it tends to think the truck is going to run into you and complains. Doesn't happen when just passing a truck normally, only in that one circumstance. The other item is doesn't like is on a divided non-freeway where the left hand turn lane doesn't have any markings. It moves to the middle of the two lanes, and then when it sees the divide moves back to the centre of the left lane. Often rather violently. State Highway 81 (North of Selina KS) is one place where this occurs. If you never drive on this kind of road, you'll never experience it. So I'd guess it depends more on where you drive rather than the type Tesla you are driving.
 
Interesting things happening. Some of my random thoughts on FSD subscription
  • While FSD subs are new, what you would get today is very little
  • Thus, this is proof of concept for the app and billing in preparation for FSD…incoming
  • Pricing seems about right
  • People who think price is too high (ie Gary Black), they can wait for the next company who offers FSD to come along trying to undercut Tesla …Tesla already thinks FSD is worth $10K today and it’s not even really “out”….they’ll likely raise prices for the foreseeable months to years, well before they lower them
  • No monthly fee ”lock”. This is month-to-month and can change at any time….if you want to “lock” your price, buy it for $10k
  • For people saying they would add it for road trips….isn’t AP standard? Isn’t AP what you really want to road trip?
  • I could see Tesla throwing in a few free months of FSD for anyone who pays for a HW3 upgrade. 3 to 6 months seems reasonable. They’ll figure this out IMO.
  • Seems bullish to me
Yes, AP is standard, but it's just lane keeping assist and adaptive cruise control as far as I'm aware. It doesn't automatically switch on turn signals and move to adjacent lanes in anticipation of interchanges, pass other cars, etc. On highways FSD acts like a fully autonomous vehicle until it takes you to an off ramp and exits the highway system. The only thing you have to do with FSD is be on the look out for bricks and potholes and such things, and scenarios that make you nervous in general, like an erratic driver where you want to keep your distance.

Really, the best way for me to describe FSD on highway systems here in the U.S. is fully autonomous. I love it.
 
I have a 2018 model 3 and I am completely uncomfortable with how it handles on ramps. It basically just goes until the lane runs out and then hopefully has a spot to merge. There have been so many times that it has behaved poorly that I won’t let it attempt it anymore
And this why FSD needs to be good in order for people to keep subscribing. Before you were stuck and just hope that future updates will improve, but now you'll just cancel until a future date.

That said I feel that every major update to fsd will have some surge in take rate. So as long as Tesla keeps pumping out updates then the subscription model will work even though FSD can be bad. However people are only willing to give it a few tries before waiting another year or two to try again.
 
Can someone explain this for me. Two COMPLETELY different takes on the same software. I have had an AP loaner and never had issues but I see so many posts with opposite views. I have never heard of AP slamming on the brakes when someone was beside it for example. I am not saying either one is exaggerating. Something is going on causing two different experiences on the same AP. Is it the year the car was made? The version of the hardware?

(If it wasn't the weekend I would not ask.)
Well, like I said, results may vary. We've had exceptionally good luck with our Teslas, but I'm sure it has partly to do with road conditions/lane markings, climate (rainy/snowy vs sunny/dry), how clean you keep the outside of the car and the cameras/sensors.

For example, before a long road trip I almost always wash the car so that my windows, cameras and sensors are clean. Tesla in fact recommends keeping the outside of the car clean so cameras/sensors aren't obstructed so they can work to their potential. Also I avoid driving in inclement weather whenever possible. Plus, we live in Arizona, where it's generally sunny and dry and driving conditions are optimal.

EDIT: Also, we're not sure if it is indeed the same software. I waited in 2019 to order the M3 so that I had the most up-to-date advanced HW3 hardware that came out the previous month if I recall correctly. I even remember telling my sales associate that I absolutely wanted HW3, I didn't want HW2.5. I think that's why some have excessive issues with phantom braking and such anomalies with vehicles purchased before April/May 2019.
 
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Disagree here re VW/ Diess: VW is the only non Chinese established car manufacturer that has unequivocally committed to EV's, investing meaningfully in battery capacity too in order to produce cars at scale. Unlike all others who are just putting out prototypes.
Also, Diess and Elon are /have been on friendly terms for a long time.

On GM I do agree, tho, what with Barra still the CEO and her embarassing Nikola moment - but judging by what is happening so far few seem to be embarassed.
Side note, bonus point for Ford, at least half decent attempt at real prototypes.
I would focus less on what corporate leaders say and more on what they do. Most legacy companies have seen the writing on the wall and are publically committing to ending ICE production...when they absolutely have too. Gm sells several X more EVs than VW. Maybe more. Most of those are low cost done with GM partners in China. GM is the only entity to have blown by the tax credit car sales limitations in the USA, other than Tesla, and they did it about the same time as Tesla if I remember. GM has just as much battery capacity coming online and is arguably ahead of VW. They are building a group of partners such as Honda to use a common platform. So historically & currently they exceed VW work and the future looks to be about the same if you look at global performance. So..

Put down the spiked coolaid. VW is bad to it's absolute core while GM is just useless. VWs owners have not changed and the mission of VW has not changed, they just feel threatened. I view Elon being friendly with Diess as giant ? not a positive unless he pulls Diess away and it leaves VW even worse off. Diess setup the software center of excellence in China for petes sake. They rolled out a car with no OTA updates and are cooking books by having 3rd party buy them in bulk to get them off VWs books. He had 6 years to launch something and yet it is worse than Ford's beta EV (mach -e) and it is not as iff they did not have the egolf to use as a beta learning (they did learn from the battery water damage, the id3/4 are really sealed well). They cant setup the software center of excellence in California because they one can't micro manage a great California based development team, they would actually have to shift power to that group to get anything done. Give someone a lot of control outside of Germany, ha. We'll see with the MEB but I'm not holding my breath.
 
I don't think it works that way. My understanding when you trade in a Tesla that has FSD assigned to that VIN, the trade in offer is adjusted to reflect that

The point of Pierres tweet was to inform Elon it DOES NOT work that way though.

There's TONS of posts from folks on here about getting little to nothing added to their trade in offers for having FSD.


Elon then said he'd look into it.

That doesn't mean it's fixed today (and esp. doesn't mean even if it was "fixed" at corporate that each individual sales associate was correctly informed about it).


To your point that Tesla has no reason to pay the owner more because they can add FSD for basically free is irrelevant. They could do that but it would be a sleazeball move on their part and I don't believe they do per the tweet mentioned

Again the Pierre tweet literally describes them doing that-- do you not believe what happened to Pierre actually happened?





As an aside to this discussion, I had a conversation with a Tesla hater that was looking for reasons to not buy a used Tesla and his argument was that you cannot buy a used Tesla from Tesla that does not come with FSD. He didn't want or need it and felt he was paying a premium for something he wouldn't use. And he was correct in his reasoning's. I contacted Tesla via live chat and asked if the FSD could be omitted from any of the cars they had on their site and he assured me it could and it would be discounted the exact price it costs to add it which was ~$10k I think.


FWIW there's lots of posts on this one too... and if they're willing to remove FSD or not from a used car, again, seems to WIDELY vary depending what tesla employee you ask.

It's possible there's a company-wide policy (I mean- there sure OUGHT to be) but if there is it appears a lot of employees aren't aware of what it is since you get different answers pretty often.

(this isn't unique to Tesla of course- lots of companies aren't great with this stuff, especially for front-line sales staff where training is minimal to start and turnover moderately frequent)
 
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TL;DR: Benzinga reports that the following upcoming catalysts could drive shares to $1K.

FSD V9+Subscription plan
Biden Administration's EV Rebate
Berlin Giga Opening, Model Y Launch In EU
Credit Rating, CyberTruck, "Model A"
 
For new buyers here is what buying $10k FSD versus $199/month subscription looks like:

Tesla offers a 72 month plan for purchases
Current interest is 2.49%
Using a bankrate loan calculator you'll pay $775.95 in interest for a total financed cost of $10,795.95. Over six years that's $149.67/month. Then you're done paying. Plus FSD stays with the car so if you sell you should recoup some of your cost.

Of note I had a friend purchase a Tesla model Y early this year and she had FSD for free as a trial for a month or something like that. Because of the free trial she opted not to buy FSD and afterwards when she wanted to purchase FSD she discovered she could not finance it after the fact and would have to pay in full.

When selling a car with FSD to a 3rd party, why would you not be able to recoup the entire cost of the FSD or at least what the current cost is to purchase the FSD? Elon has mentioned that the cost for FSD will continue to climb.