JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'll point out that you don't need to have a vehicle inside a garage to charge it. I put an outlet on the side of my house before I built my garage.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Because of this?Elon’s such a tease…
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Honestly, they have full ability to charge whatever they want and set the market price. The value of the offering includes no other viable competitors for FSD and vehicle platform and is first to market with lvl5.
Is a price of $200/month the optimum for maximizing safety? Could a higher uptake increase safety?
I don't really agree with the comments about the subscription model being a positive and negative. It's just simply a positive when it comes to profits/earnings for Q3.
- The take rate on FSD hasn't been that high to begin with. It would be different if the FSD take rate was at 50% or higher. Then you could say that there would be a material hit to profits in the short term from that 50%+ of new customers deciding to not buy FSD in favor of the subscription going forward. But the FSD take rate is like 20%.
- I think new potential customers aren't swayed by this announcement in terms of whether they were always going to chose to buy FSD outright or do the subscription and thus I don't see the take rate for buying FSD really changing that much. I don't see consumers that were set on buying FSD with their car purchase in Q3 being swayed to do the subscription now. Essentially if you were already planning on buying FSD and factored that cost into it, then you were fine with the cost up front (and likely realized you would be paying more long term under the subscription plan)
- Thus The vast majority of the people that do the subscription will not be converts from people who switched from planning to buy FSD instead of subscribe, but customers who have simply been waiting on the subscription model to begin with and/or people who have orders in that were always going to do subscription.
- Then add in the massive uptake of already existing tesla owners( roughly 80% of them) that have chosen to not buy FSD, whether they have just been holding out for on the subscription ( which will add close to 100% revenue recognition instead of the roughly 50-60% that a FSD bought order can be recognized) or they were waiting on all the features to be functioning.
- Then add in that Tesla has 2 and half months to release that button, at which point they can recognize a huge amount of deferred revenue that is 90%+ profit for Q3.
- When it comes to Q4, once the button is out and the masses can start to experience FSD/Vision, I expect the take rate to explode for the FSD subscription, maybe even see MORE orders for FSD bought outright, due to more people seeing Tesla Vision in action for themselves and the functionality being much more than what someone can get out of FSD right now (not the beta users)
- Thus I don't believe there will be a drop in profits/earnings/margin in Q3 or Q4 from Tesla releasing this subscription model and I see huge upside to both Q3 and Q4 if Tesla can release the button before September 30th.
- The take rate on FSD hasn't been that high to begin with. It would be different if the FSD take rate was at 50% or higher. Then you could say that there would be a material hit to profits in the short term from that 50%+ of new customers deciding to not buy FSD in favor of the subscription going forward. But the FSD take rate is like 20%.
- I think new potential customers aren't swayed by this announcement in terms of whether they were always going to chose to buy FSD outright or do the subscription and thus I don't see the take rate for buying FSD really changing that much. I don't see consumers that were set on buying FSD with their car purchase in Q3 being swayed to do the subscription now. Essentially if you were already planning on buying FSD and factored that cost into it, then you were fine with the cost up front (and likely realized you would be paying more long term under the subscription plan)
- Thus The vast majority of the people that do the subscription will not be converts from people who switched from planning to buy FSD instead of subscribe, but customers who have simply been waiting on the subscription model to begin with and/or people who have orders in that were always going to do subscription.
- Then add in the massive uptake of already existing tesla owners( roughly 80% of them) that have chosen to not buy FSD, whether they have just been holding out for on the subscription ( which will add close to 100% revenue recognition instead of the roughly 50-60% that a FSD bought order can be recognized) or they were waiting on all the features to be functioning.
- Then add in that Tesla has 2 and half months to release that button, at which point they can recognize a huge amount of deferred revenue that is 90%+ profit for Q3.
- When it comes to Q4, once the button is out and the masses can start to experience FSD/Vision, I expect the take rate to explode for the FSD subscription, maybe even see MORE orders for FSD bought outright, due to more people seeing Tesla Vision in action for themselves and the functionality being much more than what someone can get out of FSD right now (not the beta users)
- Thus I don't believe there will be a drop in profits/earnings/margin in Q3 or Q4 from Tesla releasing this subscription model and I see huge upside to both Q3 and Q4 if Tesla can release the button before September 30th.
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The Accountant
Active Member
There was this post a few days ago by @ZeApelido. Someone decoded that the 65.6% is the US homeownership rate. So yes, maybe a new source for batteries coming soon.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
Tesla 2nd quarter earnings report scheduled for July 26 Now we'll find out how long we must wait for confirmation that there are record earnings as @The Accountant says.
teslamotorsclub.com
The idea being that if you can afford $200 a month, you're likely a more careful driver? Maybe, sometimes, perhaps.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Just what I was wondering….
Say a potential buyer, who is interested in buying a used Tesla with FSD.
Assuming all other things being equal….
Car A has HW3 and NO FSD
Car B has HW3 and INCLUDES FSD
How much more is car B worth to the buyer? They could buy car A and pay Tesla $10K to make it equivalent to car B….
So, if car B is $9.5K more than car A, the potential buyer saves $500. Certainly monthly subscription adds a wrinkle to this, but it seems to me that FSD ought to maintain value well.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Seems like if FSD could take the car to a supercharger, charge (via snake charger or similar) and return home….well there’s some more FSD takers!
I was kicking myself for closing my 7/23 -c680s early for only 50% profit, instead of waiting until Friday for 80% profit. Now, happy
.Thank you.
Needless to say, looking forward to your numeric take on this development
Me now trying to find earlier tweets by Elon of memes having Lord Eddard Stark…
I “feel” very positive I have seen at least one earlier.
I “feel” very positive I have seen at least one earlier.
hacer
Active Member
I think it is clear than in that decade of Tesla "learning to make cars at scale" they have proved that, in over 100 years, Ford never in fact learned well how to make cars at scale. Nearly every aspect of Ford's vehicle designs are inelegant, overweight, costly, unreliable and inefficient. They always have been and all indications are they always will be. The thermal system is just one tiny part where they are way behind. Currently they're even further behind on the car body (yes, the car body! the thing that's been part of every car since the beginning) in everything from the factory space required, raw materials, number of parts, number of steps, amount of labor, crash performance, etc.
I would agree that Ford is the best of the U.S. legacy firms but basically no legacy firm has ever been willing to re-think what they've been doing wrong forever and there is almost no indication any of them ever will. I gave you a disagree for saying "Ford does know how to make cars at scale". They really don't and never did. They were just one of the best of all the know-nothing manufacturers.
I decided to take some time and look through some twitter accounts that I haven't looked at in a while. Man for someone that seems pretty smart on valuation metrics, financials, etc....it's amazing how clueless Gary Black is. Just amazes me sometimes.
His theory and math to go with it on Year 1 of Subscription model in regards to P/L in this tweet makes my mind hurt since it's so uninformed and clearly lacks an understanding of a subscription model.
The buy rate for FSD is NOT going to go from 20% to 0 in Year 1. I don't think it will dip at all due to the reasons I listed in the post above, but let's say the buy rate % goes from 20 to 10. Now add in the massive uptake in overall FSD take rate due to subscription consumers that are already current Tesla owners that have not bought FSD. Then add in the deferred revenue that can be recognized. The end result is profits will not be less in Year 1 of subscription model.......they will in fact be higher and potentially much higher.
He also seems to think that at $200 for the subscription, that overall take rate (both bought and subscribed) won't improve. I'd gladly make a wager on that assumption.
His theory and math to go with it on Year 1 of Subscription model in regards to P/L in this tweet makes my mind hurt since it's so uninformed and clearly lacks an understanding of a subscription model.
The buy rate for FSD is NOT going to go from 20% to 0 in Year 1. I don't think it will dip at all due to the reasons I listed in the post above, but let's say the buy rate % goes from 20 to 10. Now add in the massive uptake in overall FSD take rate due to subscription consumers that are already current Tesla owners that have not bought FSD. Then add in the deferred revenue that can be recognized. The end result is profits will not be less in Year 1 of subscription model.......they will in fact be higher and potentially much higher.
He also seems to think that at $200 for the subscription, that overall take rate (both bought and subscribed) won't improve. I'd gladly make a wager on that assumption.
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Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Already done! Just for the inevitability of a price increase or increases.Can we speculate when FSD goes to 15k? That would make the $199 subscription really appealing. Better get that FSD price locked in, with a CT reservation.
Dan
That probably depends on where you live. I’ve personally almost never see anybody run a red light, and have probably done that myself only once (because I didn’t realise there was a traffic light, and the traffic was such that nobody got into danger).
Since it's the weekend I'm going to leave this here.
Noneduck
Member
Re: Gary Black and FSD subscription. Zach Kirkhorn mentioned in the earnings call "there could be a period of time in which cash reduces in the near term." I assume Zach and his team have done the modeling and that the medium term financial benefit for the subscription model will be much better than the status quo (pay up front FSD).
Watts_Up
Well-Known Member
Ask to Tiger Wood...
Forensic Expert Says Tiger Woods Car Crash 'Is Like A Classic Case Of Falling Asleep Behind The Wheel'
Forensic car accident experts think that Tiger Woods may have fallen asleep at the wheel moments before his horrifying car accident last month, which resulted in serious leg injuries sustained by the athlete.
I'll take Zack and the Tesla team over Gary Black all day long. Gary is an educated and experienced clown (ie. For entertainment and amusement purposes only.)
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