Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[goinfraftw]

This is going to be a mouthful, but...

With Megapack available starting in 2022 and FSD subscription available, is there suggestions on how to compare, in terms of profit margin, Autobidder + Megapack with Autos + SW Subscriptions in the next 1-3 years based on the limited VPP we have and the FSD take-rates currently?

 

[joh01652]

You aren't getting the point. FSD should be priced at whatever price maximizes revenue.

My point is that number ($10k up front or $199/mo) is way too high. Probably 90%+ of owners are going to pass on that, and the number of owners that will pass on that will only grow larger as Tesla penetrates downward into the price ranges too.

I guarantee if they lowered the cost by some percentage, the number of subscribers would increase by more than that percentage, increasing revenue.

I agree, I have thought the same thing: Why not maximize revenue? Why not offer it for $2000 or something--surely way more people would buy it at that price.

But then I think to myself, perhaps it's not that straightforward. Perhaps by simply maximizing revenue Tesla would at the same time maximize headaches. Maybe Tesla doesn't want everybody being able to afford FSD because it's not ready for prime-time and they know this, they don't want every yahoo buying it and thinking, "Oh gee I got Autopilot, that means I can fall asleep at the wheel and drive home drunk and make out with my girlfriend while filming a Youtube video on my way home after clubbing."

I think anyone looking to spend $10K on FSD would look seriously into what they are purchasing and would conclude one of two things: 1) FSD sucks and isn't worth my hard-earned $10K; or 2) FSD sucks, but I don't care because I'm a Tesla fan and want to see the company succeed, it'll probably work eventually so take my money, and if it doesn't work, oh well, I'm helping out an awesome company.

Tesla knows there are customers like me they can count on to test out a product that simply isn't ready for prime-time, isn't ready for the masses. Tesla already has enough problems as it is, and sometimes stupidly chasing after low-hanging revenue can lead to more problems than it's worth. In any case, once FSD is truly ready for prime time my car's value will jump five-figures easily, and the SP will jump another $100, so it's all good.

 

[82bert]

I’ve probably missed it along the way, but do we even know the official FSD take rate? I’m assuming Tesla has these numbers and is pricing as it sees fit. Certainly the pricing can change whenever they please, and as they penetrate the lower part of the auto buying market, certainly FSD subscription pricing can go down.
But for me, current pricing seems more than appropriate.

I feel confident in the fact that they’re releasing the subscription product now is a good sign they’re feeling bullish about the direction of vision only FSD.

 

[The Accountant]

I’ve probably missed it along the way, but do we even know the official FSD take rate? I’m assuming Tesla has these numbers and is pricing as it sees fit. Certainly the pricing can change whenever they please, and as they penetrate the lower part of the auto buying market, certainly FSD subscription pricing can go down.
But for me, current pricing seems more than appropriate.

I feel confident in the fact that they’re releasing the subscription product now is a good sign they’re feeling bullish about the direction of vision only FSD.

I don't think there is anything reported by Tesla but Troy Teslike's tracker which had a sample size of about 2,000 buyers revealed a take rate at Q3 2020 of 25%. This tracker skews very much to North America so assume the actual is less than that - perhaps 15% worldwide.

 

[dhrivnak]

Can someone explain this for me. Two COMPLETELY different takes on the same software. I have had an AP loaner and never had issues but I see so many posts with opposite views. I have never heard of AP slamming on the brakes when someone was beside it for example. I am not saying either one is exaggerating. Something is going on causing two different experiences on the same AP. Is it the year the car was made? The version of the hardware?

(If it wasn't the weekend I would not ask.)

I really do not know. I do have a 2018 so I do not have the later, more powerful computer. But If one were to search there are a LOT of posts on random break checks.

 

[jerry33]

I think anyone looking to spend $10K on FSD would look seriously into what they are purchasing and would conclude one of two things: 1) FSD sucks and isn't worth my hard-earned $10K; or 2) FSD sucks, but I don't care because I'm a Tesla fan and want to see the company succeed, it'll probably work eventually so take my money, and if it doesn't work, oh well, I'm helping out an awesome company.

There's at least one other (and there are probably more based on individual circumstances). FSD as shipped today goes a long way to prevent accidents from falling asleep at the wheel during a trip. This is totally worth the price, unless you never take any road trips.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1416456425367277571

Pierre Ferragu is loving the FSD subscription model and it’s impact to Tesla’s EBIT multiple.

Upgrades to follow from Intelligent analysts?

 

[Wicket]

What all could they throw into a 'Tesla Prime' approach to subscription? I would consider perhaps tiering it as well where the variables below depend on tier.

1) 'X miles per month' for FSD (just an idea though this might be annoying)
2) Free SWAG
3) Supercharging X kWh
4) X% Insurance discount
5) Destination charging
6) Home charger rental
7) Games
8) internet connectivity
9) maintenance
10) Elon newsletter including vacation photos and memes
11) ???
12) Paint ding repair discount
13) Tire discount
14) Profit
15) Special event access
16) Stuff it Buffett Candy
17) Moat cleaner (removes algae in a flash)
18) Improved positioning for new model releases
19) Your name on a golden record delivered to aliens
20) Free coffee at superchargers

What would you pay for this smorgasbord of life changing Tesla goodness?

 

[MC3OZ]

I agree, I have thought the same thing: Why not maximize revenue? Why not offer it for $2000 or something--surely way more people would buy it at that price.

But then I think to myself, perhaps it's not that straightforward. Perhaps by simply maximizing revenue Tesla would at the same time maximize headaches. Maybe Tesla doesn't want everybody being able to afford FSD because it's not ready for prime-time and they know this, they don't want every yahoo buying it and thinking, "Oh gee I got Autopilot, that means I can fall asleep at the wheel and drive home drunk and make out with my girlfriend while filming a Youtube video on my way home after clubbing."

I think anyone looking to spend $10K on FSD would look seriously into what they are purchasing and would conclude one of two things: 1) FSD sucks and isn't worth my hard-earned $10K; or 2) FSD sucks, but I don't care because I'm a Tesla fan and want to see the company succeed, it'll probably work eventually so take my money, and if it doesn't work, oh well, I'm helping out an awesome company.

Tesla knows there are customers like me they can count on to test out a product that simply isn't ready for prime-time, isn't ready for the masses. Tesla already has enough problems as it is, and sometimes stupidly chasing after low-hanging revenue can lead to more problems than it's worth. In any case, once FSD is truly ready for prime time my car's value will jump five-figures easily, and the SP will jump another $100, so it's all good.

In terms of the mission, the important use of FSD is in RoboTaxis.

So if we start with that assumption and work backwards, Tesla makes more money on RoboTaxis paying a monthly subscription.

A working RoboTaxi should easily earn enough to pay the monthly subscription.

I have said many times once RoboTaxis are working, don't trade in your old car, put it out to work, that will pay for FSD on both cars..

My other perspective is $10K spread over 10 years is $1K per year, less than my typical spend on ICE servicing when I owned an ICE.

I think the monthly subscription price will stay roughly the same, but we will see multiple demand levers to get customers to commit to one of the available options,. These will be price increases on FSD outright purchase, and finally the removal of the option to purchase FSD outright. As these are demand levers, Tesla will give customers a few weeks notice.

If FSD was cheap, smart people might buy Tesla cars and FSD and run a private rideshare service,

Eventually a cheaper edition of FSD for private usage might be an subscription option, but any violation of rules of use would result in permanent cancellation of subscription. At that level it may be linked to a individual driver/phone... that phone may need to be in the car to engage FSD. And it may have an annual mileage limit.

 

[ZCStoFly]

I think the next favorable move of TESLA is to SELL INSURANCE. With full time FSD, they can offer the best insurance (low) rate. At that time, no other insurance company will be able to compete with TESLA's offer.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Can we speculate when FSD goes to 15k? That would make the $199 subscription really appealing. Better get that FSD price locked in, with a CT reservation.

I thought everyone here maxed out their Tesla account and did 5x orders for the CT with the FSD was only $8k? Don't tell me that I was the only 1.

 

[S3XY]

~1 month to V10 (possibly wide release)
~2 months to V11 (defo wide release/button)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1416285546570293248

https://twitter.com/x/status/1416286233962160128

3 months maybe, 6 months definitely.

 

[madodel]

What all could they throw into a 'Tesla Prime' approach to subscription? I would consider perhaps tiering it as well where the variables below depend on tier.

1) 'X miles per month' for FSD (just an idea though this might be annoying)
2) Free SWAG
3) Supercharging X kWh
4) X% Insurance discount
5) Destination charging
6) Home charger rental
7) Games
8) internet connectivity
9) maintenance
10) Elon newsletter including vacation photos and memes
11) ???
12) Paint ding repair discount
13) Tire discount
14) Profit
15) Special event access
16) Stuff it Buffett Candy
17) Moat cleaner (removes algae in a flash)
18) Improved positioning for new model releases
19) Your name on a golden record delivered to aliens
20) Free coffee at superchargers

What would you pay for this smorgasbord of life changing Tesla goodness?

How about a personal service contact who you can phone? That I'd pay for.

 

[Wicket]

How about a personal service contact who you can phone? That I'd pay for.

It seems to me that Prime works out quite well for Amazon and there's clearly a lot of things that Tesla could throw into a basket. Might work to have identity categories (home owner, urbanite, roadtripper, breeder, sporty spice, corporate cultist, Al Gore Rhythm)

 

[dhanson865]

That probably depends on where you live. I’ve personally almost never see anybody run a red light, and have probably done that myself only once (because I didn’t realise there was a traffic light, and the traffic was such that nobody got into danger).

You're lucky then, Here we have red light revenue systems and they change the yellow light time to the minimum legally allowed if there is a camera and leave the yellow light time longer on other lights that have no camera even on the same street.

Very easy here to see people running red lights when you have no consistency on when a light will turn red.

 

[juanmedina]

I believe he talked about build quality for every piece of tech he has ever reviewed (mostly cell phones and tablets). Not sure why Tesla gets an exception here.

Is like asking Sandy Munro to review the build quality of an Iphone . They are different products with different manufacturing processes and different tolerance stack ups. The same goes for he reviewing anything related to the vehicle dynamics.

 

[Criscmt]

Price Target of $1471?

Webull is showing the PT, but not Tipranks. Any idea who the analyst is?

Also, I wonder for what period those Institutional holding changes were in.

 

[S3XY]

Elon’s such a tease…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1416444660055224329

Has anyone tried tapping on the screen, say...3 times?

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Since FSD is a hot topic this weekend…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1416511905515048966

https://twitter.com/x/status/1416512593435545604

 

[Criscmt]

Looking for help understanding the data from 13F filings.
In Q1-2021, 36.879M shares moved from institutions that file 13F to those who don't file 13F?

I was curious to see how TSLA changed hands in Q1 2021, this is data from whalewisdom.

"Prior" column is data for Q4-2020.
Compared to Q4-2020, shares held by institutions that file 13Fs went down by 8.49%, 36.879M shares.
However, there's pretty much no change in the shares held by Hedge Funds.
I am assuming share count of Hedge Funds here is subset of the shares by "All 13F Filers".
If there was no change in the holdings of the Hedge Funds, who were the institutions that sold 36.879M shares?
And who did they sell the shares to, and the fact that there's reduction in the count from 434.321 to 397.442, these are buyers that are not required to file 13F.
Retail would be one group that fall into this category who don't file 13F. But I doubt retail would account for even 20% of those 36M.
What is it that I am reading incorrectly here?

@Artful Dodger @generalenthu , others?

Q1 2021	All 13F Filers	Prior	Change	Hedge Funds 1	Prior	Change
In top 10:	193	214	-9.81%	74 (4.34%)	86 (4.99%)	-13.95%
Funds Holding:	2066	2052	0.68%	319 (18.72%)	318 (18.46%)	0.31%
13F shares:	397.442 Million	434.321 Million	-8.49%	63.382 Million	63.202 Million	0.28%
% Ownership	41.4065	45.8192	-9.63%	6.6033	6.6676	-0.96%
New Positions:	213	536	-60.26%	52	74	-29.73%
Increased Positions	903	773	16.82%	124	127	-2.36%
Closed Positions	163	92	77.17%	47	32	46.88%
Reduced Positions	777	572	35.84%	121	96	26.04%
Total Calls	132.03 Million	160.32 Million	-17.65%	31.668 Million	36.41 Million	-13.03%
Total Puts	142.27 Million	259.781 Million	-45.23%	38.991 Million	63.811 Million	-38.9%
PUT/CALL Ratio	1.08	1.62	-33.33%	1.23	1.75	-29.71%