Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobDickinson]

Surprised by the mustang machE numbers in Norway. Good to have competition I guess. I am predicting numbers will be drastically different by December

Ford need EV sales in EU for co2 fine reasons and Norway is the easiest country to sell EVs in...

 

[Chenkers]

Lol, LOTS of utilities coming in for an office building... also lots of loading bays. If this building DOES contain the Design Studio, it'd have to be on the upper floor. But why make office workers commute? This is a reasonable question, and may in fact be the case due to Tesla's preference that enginneering be collocated with production. So, Design with engineering too? Well, the U.S. Design center is in Hawthorne near SpaceX HQ, not in the San Franscisco Bay area. So, it remains to be seen what will happen in Shanghai.

Circling back to utilities, I have previously speculated that this new building in the NE corner of the Shanghai land lease could include a Gigapress for Model 3. This is PURE speculation (well, look at the equipment mounted on the roof), but Elon has said that Fremont would eventually switch Model 3 to gigacastings. My intuition is that they need to amortize the capital equipment on the existing body line before its replaced. However, those Kuka robots may find a 2nd life making more robots...

Cheers!

The design studio is much more than an office building and the services installed and the layout of that building suggests to me that the most likely use is the design studio.

Ton Zhu who runs Tesla in China gave some insight into the Design Studio in an Interview in February: Tesla's $25,000 Model 2 Will Be Sold Globally, Tom Zhu Says

Zhu expects Tesla’s R&D center to be online towards the middle of this year. “We now expect it be up and running in the middle of this year. … It has more than 20 professional laboratories. We will provide very good conditions to facilitate our R&D engineers working toward our ultimate goal. The ultimate goal has been mentioned in many public occasions. In the future, we want to design, develop, and produce an original model in China. It is manufactured here and sold to the whole world. This R&D center is the starting point of the goal.”

20 laboratories require a lot of specialised air handling and other servicing and may also include a small wind tunnel. Basically they would need a skunk works inside the building with enough space and equipment to do hand production of prospective new models in secret. So the large open area closest to the car lot would be the laboratories and trial fabrication with the office component of the design studio in the multi-level side facing out to the street.

The separate site and building in Shanghai for the production of superchargers looks too small for the design studio as described. This north east building at the gigafactory also looks too small for cell production that in China all appears to be focussed on external suppliers like LG and CATL who is building a new cell factory nearby.

 

[winfield100]

OT. somewhat
there are bad things and folks need positive stuff
re:space, September is going to be a wild thyme

it was sorrowful yet amazing to see the horizontal flight of the Astra rocket launched from Alaska that literally went “sideways” computers going “don’t fall over…..”

the successful launch of CRS-23 to resupply the ISS, no shortfall there.

so, let’s do a 3 day telethon from space, with SpaceX and Netflix, for charity, in a SpaceX dragon, and a non subtle shoutout to StarLink

1st teaser video

2nd teaser video

Will this give SpaceX and Tesla to a lesser extent lots of positive press(ure)?
(after all, the stock price just did a golden cross and the Accumulatio/Distribution line has been flat since S&P500 inclusion)

Falcon 9 Block 5 | Inspiration4

A Falcon 9 Block 5 rocket launched with Inspiration4 from LC-39A, Kennedy Space Center, Florida, USA on Thursday Sep 16, 2021 at 00:02 UTC.

nextspaceflight.com

 

[Doit]

It’s funny how most of us here are investing in THE company making the transition to sustainability their primary goal - yet when faced with laws in a sovereign country that are in place to protect endangered species of animals, or plants, or force you to prove sustainable use of scarce resources, everyone is happy to at best joke about it or at worst suggests that Tesla should be given special allowance to ignore these laws.
Yes, it’s frustrating to me too that the pace of large project construction in Germany is hindered by law, procedures and frivolous objections by groups funded by lobbyists.

But please, let’s stay objective.

Good message and laudable intention, but misled and wrong conclusion.

Just want to make a brief comment about "to protect endangered species of animals, or plants" part as a person who had two advanced degrees in this field (For a couple of years, I personally measured soil CO2 efflux of tree plantation, which was exactly the same kind of forest the Giga Berlin cut down/will cut down):

The single standing tree after the adjacent trees all chopped down in the middle of the huge building site is a total mockery to anyone who studied/work in relevant fields and worth the weight of their respective diplomats, i.e. it has nothing to do with protection of endangered species, but everything to do with shenanigans and ulterior motivations.

I can write pages to justify why is that, but I guess too OT then.

 

[2daMoon]

Some food for thought from the Tesla Economist to finish the weekend.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The design studio is much more than an office building and the services installed and the layout of that building suggests to me that the most likely use is the design studio.

Ton Zhu who runs Tesla in China gave some insight into the Design Studio in an Interview in February: Tesla's $25,000 Model 2 Will Be Sold Globally, Tom Zhu Says

Zhu expects Tesla’s R&D center to be online towards the middle of this year. “We now expect it be up and running in the middle of this year. … It has more than 20 professional laboratories. We will provide very good conditions to facilitate our R&D engineers working toward our ultimate goal. The ultimate goal has been mentioned in many public occasions. In the future, we want to design, develop, and produce an original model in China. It is manufactured here and sold to the whole world. This R&D center is the starting point of the goal.”

20 laboratories require a lot of specialised air handling and other servicing and may also include a small wind tunnel. Basically they would need a skunk works inside the building with enough space and equipment to do hand production of prospective new models in secret. So the large open area closest to the car lot would be the laboratories and trial fabrication with the office component of the design studio in the multi-level side facing out to the street.

The separate site and building in Shanghai for the production of superchargers looks too small for the design studio as described. This north east building at the gigafactory also looks too small for cell production that in China all appears to be focussed on external suppliers like LG and CATL who is building a new cell factory nearby.

Yikes, how do you get "Design studio" out of "R&D center"? Do you believe Tesla's Hawthorne Design center is an "Tesla’s R&D center"?

The 2 are separate functions. I'm discussing the China Design studio. This new building is CLEARLY more than just a Design studio. It may have enough infrastruture to produce prototypes, which Tesla has always done near Fremont until now.

 

[jamaatta]

Ford need EV sales in EU for co2 fine reasons and Norway is the easiest country to sell EVs in...

Norway isn"t a EU member country.

 

[RobDickinson]

Norway isn"t a EU member country.

For the purpose of co2, fines and EVs it is. (as is the UK)

 

[jamaatta]

For the purpose of co2, fines and EVs it is. (as is the UK)

Ok, thanks for information, this was something new for me.

 

[Tslynk67]

For the purpose of co2, fines and EVs it is. (as is the UK)

I'm pretty certain that the UK is not part of the EU pooling, they have their own pooling scheme

Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein are included, they part of the European Economic Area (EEA)

Interesting, I see that it's just Kinda pooling with Tesla this year, I know FCA said they didn't need it any more, but didn't realise they had actually withdraw:

https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/c616f73f-9c3f-49ee-8f27-8b081d3212b7/M1%20pooling%20list%2022.06.2021.pdf

More info: CIRCABC - Welcome

 

[RobDickinson]

I'm pretty certain that the UK is not part of the EU pooling, they have their own pooling scheme

Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein are included, they part of the European Economic Area (EEA)

Interesting, I see that it's just Kinda pooling with Tesla this year, I know FCA said they didn't need it any more, but didn't realise they had actually withdraw:

https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/c616f73f-9c3f-49ee-8f27-8b081d3212b7/M1%20pooling%20list%2022.06.2021.pdf

More info: CIRCABC - Welcome

Ah UK is carrying on the same scheme but not being counted you are right.

 

[lascavarian]

I am still working to wrap my head around AI day. I watched Jim Keller discuss developing a computer architecture for matrix math with Lex F. Dojo seems to be the delivery of that HW vision In connection with Neural Network research.

James Douma best described AI day as a reveal of ambition. Great comment.

The FAANG stocks deliver low friction socialization, commerce, computing, communication, entertainment and low friction information. All this on the digital platform of the internet. A digital platform now sparkling above our head in space as StarLink.

Where does the achievement of Dojo stand in this FAANG realm? Where does Optimus stand in this realm?

SMR is close to getting it but too conservative IMO. I am still struggling to get the scope of it. It seems to me the achievement of Dojo and the ambition of Optimus is something new in the world. Not quite here but demonstrated in enough detail to result in changing the world as much as Trinity did.

I think we have seen the beginning of the eclipse of FAANG investing and FAANG leadership. Something new is arriving. Something so new it is a struggle to comprehend. Platform is not enough.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA up sharply vs macros (3.5x) in early Pre-market trading at New York:

Nasdaq 100 Sep 21 (NQ=F)​

CME - CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD
15,449.25+22.75 (+0.15%)

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Aug 30, 2021 05:40 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$715.71 +3.79 (+0.53%)
Pre-Market Volume	21,747
Pre-Market High	$715.5 (04:26:48 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$714 (04:03:57 AM)

 

[CorneliusXX]

If Tesla have concluded that they will have solvent-free cell manufacturing working at an acceptable yield (say up from the current ~80%, to say ~99%) by the time this building reaches a fully-stuffed-and-commissioned status, then, just perhaps, this is for 4680 cell production. If that were so it would not need huge amounts of driers etc on top and would be quite a compact floorplan. Or it is something else entirely.

(I thought the R&D and engineering office was co-located with the Supercharger manufacturing building, away from the main Shanghai car plant ?)

Maybe. @gabeincal 's videos show pretty substantial air handling in the Kato Rd facility - Far more complex than Shanghai north - however Kato Rd is the prototype, so the next iteration could well be a simplified version.

Jeff Robert's videos show there appears to still be quite a bit more air handling going in to the Austin cell factory than seen in Shanghai. It is also more integrated in to the building. Presumably much more of the ducting/plumbing will be internal at Austin - That could be what happened at Shanghai, however I didn't see the equivalent internal working going on in any of the Shanghai videos.

It's too early to say what Berlin will look like, however they also have more air handling equipment stored than I saw at Shanghai.

 

[FS_FRA]

Good message and laudable intention, but misled and wrong conclusion.

Just want to make a brief comment about "to protect endangered species of animals, or plants" part as a person who had two advanced degrees in this field (For a couple of years, I personally measured soil CO2 efflux of tree plantation, which was exactly the same kind of forest the Giga Berlin cut down/will cut down):

The single standing tree after the adjacent trees all chopped down in the middle of the huge building site is a total mockery to anyone who studied/work in relevant fields and worth the weight of their respective diplomats, i.e. it has nothing to do with protection of endangered species, but everything to do with shenanigans and ulterior motivations.

I can write pages to justify why is that, but I guess too OT then.

It's still pre-market, so here goes:

You missed my point (or I made it poorly): I'm irritated by the frequent whining on TMC regards GigaBerlin delays and the suggestion that these are caused by over-reach by the German government's interpretation of environmental or other laws. The fact of the matter is: Tesla should have known what they were going to be up against in Germany when they planned GigaBerlin - and I'm sure they modeled it out - and this (unfortunately or not) is simply how things are done here. For better or worse.
The fact that Tesla has been able to get this far on preliminary or conditional approval (and then nearly f'ed that up by missing the €100mm security deposit deadline) just shows how much support Tesla really has here.

Everything else is noise that is justified or not, depending on what side of the argument you're on.

I'm really looking forward to GigaBerlin being finished and I'm sure that when that day comes, it will be far superior to what is being built in Texas (**ducks** )

(Also, I don't have two degrees in whatever, never mind advanced ones)

 

[Frank Einstein]

Picked up my Shanghai-built Model Y LR in Vienna on Friday. The car is PERFECT. Amazing quality. As I was adjusting the steering wheel to my preferred driving position, it made a slight squeak. The Tesla guy showing me the car was absolutely mortified and had the squeak fixed within five minutes -- even though I said I didn't care because once set, I'd never adjust the steering wheel again and the squeak was completely trivial anyway. He spent longer apologising for the squeak than it took to fix it. The entire purchasing process was quick, easy, and highly professional. I literally can't think of anything Tesla could have done to improve the process from my perspective. And I thought I was already a massive Tesla fanboy.

A massive thanks to TMC members for helping me get into the financial position to make this purchase an option for my family.

My brother-in-law wanted to buy a Skoda Enyaq. Him driving my Tesla for five minutes made him change his plans. Europe is going to go absolutely nuts for the Model Y. Bullish AF.

 

[Artful Dodger]

OT

RIP Ed Asner

Spoiler: Adventure is out there!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Maybe. @gabeincal 's videos show pretty substantial air handling in the Kato Rd facility - Far more complex than Shanghai north - however Kato Rd is the prototype, so the next iteration could well be a simplified version.
View attachment 703144

Jeff Robert's videos show there appears to still be quite a bit more air handling going in to the Austin cell factory than seen in Shanghai. It is also more integrated in to the building. Presumably much more of the ducting/plumbing will be internal at Austin - That could be what happened at Shanghai, however I didn't see the equivalent internal working going on in any of the Shanghai videos.
View attachment 703145
It's too early to say what Berlin will look like, however they also have more air handling equipment stored than I saw at Shanghai.
View attachment 703146

Good sleuthing. To really nail this down, we'd have to compare Austin/Berlin to Giga Nevada. I wonder what their air-handling units look like from the outside. Although I think those massive drying ovens for solvent recovery are inside the building, there must be a tail-pipe of some sort. Or perhaps there's some archival photos during the construction phase back in 2016?

Thanks again for the comparo!

Cheers!

 

[The Accountant]

Sorry can you clarify what you mean

"Troy is expecting about 50k in exports from China in Q3 - that would mean 26k in exports for Aug (50-24=26) and 10k in local for 36k total."

If 50k in exports is expected for Q3 you cannot just subtract 50-24 = 26. There are 3 months in a quarter. Or do you suggest 0 exports in September?

I understand your point. I don't expect much in exports in September,
By the way, I was being conservative using Troy's numbers. He's likely low.

If Tesla exported 24k in July with 7.7 days of loading, then one might extrapolate the 11 days of loading time in August to 35k cars exported. Add the 10k in local deliveries and you have a whopping 45k for August. That number does seem too high to me but it gives us an idea that the 10k local may not be a bad number.
Also remember that Tesla was loading the last ship in Aug (the Triton Ace) from Aug 20-23. So we can see Tesla did not have many production days in Aug to service the local market.

 

[avoigt]

In my interview with Peter Mertens (Audi, VW, Volvo, Polestar, Jaguar Land Rover former Top Manager) he claimed VW to overtake Tesla in 1H2022 with BEVs and that Tesla didn't make any profits excluding credits, Well the latter earned me a free bottle of champaign

It was fun talking to him and I may do more interviews with former top executives. Interested?

Because Peter talks regularly with a lot of former colleagues that are now customers in his board roles at Recogni, Valend a.o. he has deep insights into their thoughts.