-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
RobDickinson
Active Member
Potentially delivering half of last year in 1 quarter = 'decent'
Wasn't the prototype doing around 7:20 (unofficial) time
* Tesla Model S Plaid back at the Nurburgring in production form
Last edited:
RobDickinson
Active Member
That had active aero and track tyres etc.
They will be testing a modified car soon. This was a factory fresh production car.
That car was a very different spec. to the standard Plaid.
Pezpunk
Active Member
It was also gutted, no interior or back seats. (And probably had prototype 4680s)
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
So this was stock tires too. Mods and racing tires ought to get below 7:20.
RobDickinson
Active Member
The stock tyres are not the best either... aka not cup 2r's
InTheShadows
Active Member
That other thread will let you know how you can get 100 shares back at 740, or pocket $1500.
I'd say it smells fishy, but whales are mammals...
InTheShadows
Active Member
RobDickinson
Active Member
I doubt the 155mph limit was a big issue but yes stock brakes will be as will tyres and the more aggressive aero
Rashomon
Member
TeslaQ folk on Twitter are questioning whether the brakes are stock. I wonder if the calipers are a cataloged Tesla part, available to anyone who happens to have the right part number . . .
How do they know that is the car the record was set with? Maybe that is the next one Elon said they were running with upgrades.
RobDickinson
Active Member
They are questioning the suspension because the morons cant cope with adaptive air suspension under compression on a bend.
Pezpunk
Active Member
Nah, 155mph limiter would absolutely definitely be a big issue at the ring. There are a lot of VERY LONG straights there, including the 2-mile long final straightaway. The Porsche 919 gets up to 220mph in several different places along the course, and over 230mph early on in the final straight. Production cars easily hit 190mph+ on that course. The GT2 RS was also going over 200mph at times.
Last edited:
Those guys are morons that is why we keep taking their money. That is obviously the modified Model S Plaid that Elon is taking about with the carbon ceramic brakes.
Here is the production stock cars that set the record:
Edit: oh wow from another article about the yoke lol.
Last edited:
GrandEnigma
Member
Despite my best efforts, my solar and power wall project will be hitting Q4. Finally.
Nice first post!Hi all - I have been a lurker since 2018, shortly after I bought my first Tesla shares. I have been wanting to pay a little back to this awesome community, and I think I have finally found something that might actually be useful to you allIf I am lucky @The Accountant might get something useful out of this for his estimates
For some time I have wanted to take a shot at the following question, that I have not seen discussed yet in this forum:
What is the actual gross margin for Tesla for every new auto production increase today?
TL;DR: This is a long post, so for the lazy ones - every additional MIC Model Y production might at this point have a gross margin of 40% or even higher!! The result is an earnings increase of $1,5 billion in 2021Q3 that is going straight down into the GAAP income. Read on to see why, if you think this sounds bogus
The Pierre Farragu interview by Rob Maurer got me thinking about this question. It was spurred by Pierre talking about the effect of the incremental increase in productivity as we go to newer versions of the giga factories. Fremont profit margin is really bad compared to Shanghai, and Berlin & Austin is going to have an even better profit margin that Shanghai.
As most of the production increase we see today is happening in Shanghai, we cannot really use the current average automotive profit margins, when we want to estimate how production increase is going to affect future profits. This is due to the current 28.4% automotive gross margin being a mix of the not so good margin from Fremont and the quite better margin from Shanghai (also the Y vs 3 margin is in effect here as new production is mostly Y).
To try and get closer to an answer to this question, we can compare some of the numbers from the last couple of quarters. This can hopefully give us an idea of the profit margin for new production capacity created in the last quarters, which have primarily been from Shanghai.
We can then apply this profit margin to the estimated 2021Q3 sales. So let's go!
First we need an estimate of the 2021Q3 production. Here is my guess on where we will end up:
These numbers might even be conservative, as the LFP batteries now shipped to Fremont from China might actually lead to a significant increase in Fremont 3/Y production and thus sales. Also the S numbers can easily be higher. Finally the 4 days without production in Shanghai September could even make the China Oct numbers conservative as well.
2021Q3 car sales estimate China Aug 32,968 Actual China Sep 44,264 Actual China Oct 50,000 Estimated Fremont 3/Y 114,391 Same as Q2 (From Troy) Fremont S 10,000 Estimated Total 251,623
PS: Sorry to all the US people - my version of Excel is set to Danish, so "," and "." is switched around - please forgive me
The following data used is all coming from Tesla Investor Relations
The following table shows for the last 5 quarters:
From these numbers the increase compared to the previous quarter is calculated. Finally the increase in car sales can be related to the increase in both revenue and profit to get an idea of how much each additional car sale is affecting these numbers.
- Automotive revenue
- Automotive profit
- Automotive sales
The numbers for 2021Q2 is then used to estimate how the above guestimate of 251,623 2021Q3 car sales will affect the revenue and profits:
View attachment 707069
(Mil) means millions. The orange boxes contains the input used to estimate Q3 numbers. Car sales is from above and revenue & profit increase is using the Q2 numbers.
When looking at the numbers there's a couple of thing to keep in mind. On top of my head the following unknowns is affecting the average profit increase:
There are probably other things affecting the numbers as well that I have overlooked, but I think these two factors are the most important ones. Let's have a look at what we might be able to infer from the numbers when keeping these in mind.
- Quarterly differences in new savings on a "per car" basis increases profit for every car / some cars sold and not just the new cars (i.e. removal of radar in all US 3/Y sales that had full effect for the first time in 2021Q2).
- Large one time negative expenses such as the Y stamping upgrade in Fremont and the S/X production line refresh (This is why the profit increase per extra car sales for 2020Q4 is so low - gigantic one time expenses).
Points of interest:
- Throughout 2021 the profit increase for each additional car sold has been above $30.000.
- If 2021Q3 profit increase turns out as calculated then it is a crazy 1.5 billion $ increase in profit for Q3 (marked with red in the table).
- Question is, can Tesla keep finding savings for every car made that matches what was seen in 2021Q1 (model Y stamping savings) & Q2 (US radar removal savings)? Maybe the revival of the Model S can do it for Q3! But some fleet wide savings might also be needed in order to stay above the 30,000 profit increase per additional car in Q3. Navigate on city streets for FSD could be one such thing if it gets out before Q3 end.
- The revenue increase from 2021Q1 to 2021Q2 is a staggering $73,293 for each new extra car sold… numbers don't lie but there must be something hidden in plain sight in this number - especially since regulatory credits is reduced over this period. Maybe a strong switch from model 3 to model Y as well as going towards long range versions. This could cause a significant part of this revenue increase to come from the "existing production capacity".
- Revenue fell in 2021Q1, due to the lack of model S and X, but profit still grew nicely - most likely due to the implementation of gigacasting for model Y in Fremont having full effect this quarter for the first time.
- If we expect revenue increase per extra car sales to be closer to 50,000 in Q3 (I do not expect that ~70,000 is something that can keep on happening) and profit increase to still be around 30,000 then we would see a gross margin of 60%... This really sounds to crazy even in my mind.
Conclusion:
Given that
then it might not be to far fetched (based on the numbers above) that every extra MIC Model Y at this point has a gross margin closer to 40% than 30%... there's even a chance that it is above 40%, especially when sold in EU!!?
- Gross margin is better in Shanghai than Fremont
- The Model Y sells for more than the Model 3, yet costs less to produce
- Each incremental car produced on the same equipment is cheaper to produce than the previous
This alone is not enough for a profit increase of 30,000 for each extra car sale, and I believe that Tesla needs to keep finding savings on their existing production to stay at these numbers of profit increase per extra car sales.
Just like 2021Q1 had Fremont model Y gigacasting come online, and Q2 had the radar removal for all US (now every car made in Fremont!!). Q3 is the quarter where Model S sales is starting for real instead of being an expense. This could help stay above the 30,000 profit increase per extra car sales. In addition FSD city street driving would help a lot if it can make it in Q3.
If we hit the calculated 1.5 billion $ increase in profit for 2021Q3 then automotive gross profit ends up close to 4.5 billion and thus Income from operations somewhere between 2.5-3 billion. This is going to add roughly $1.5 GAAP EPS, placing us around $2.5 in total for Q3- way way higher than wall street is "estimating". The truth might be somewhere below this estimate - this is just one take to try and get an idea of where we might be heading.
When Berlin and Austin comes online, Tesla is going to be rolling in cash - I expect 40% margin from those giga factories pretty soon in the ramp up process with both back and front using gigacasting!!.
Car manufactures not using gigacasting is going to go out of business real soon - they simply cannot compete on price once we reach the point where every car sold is an electric car and they have to fight Tesla on pricing.
Would recommend adding ASP & GM% to your table, adds some good context for each quarter:
lafrisbee
Active Member
after reading of the triple witching supposedly creating a Maxpain of around 700 should I wait a week to buy more stock?
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
