Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[uujjj2]

Moderator edit: This post has been un-deleted but ALL further reacting posts utterly instantly violated TMC’s No Political statements. Zero tolerance.
I figured this comment would be controversial. It definitely got a reaction. But I got overwhelmingly favorable responses from Americans. Oddly, I got a bunch of "disagrees" from Europeans.

Lemme add a little more color on why Biden believes (correctly) that it's important for Detroit automakers and the UAW to buy in to the EV transition. It's not that traditional auto is going to crush Tesla and the startups. It's got to do with labor and wages. See, a big problem for green energy is that fossil fuel jobs are heavily unionized and high paying, while solar jobs aren't. Moreover, ICE auto production is heavily unionized and high paying, while although Tesla Fremont's total comp is actually higher than the UAW, the wages Tesla is said to be offering in Texas are definitely not.

There's a narrative being developed that the green energy transition is going to lead to lower wages. The fossil fuel industry is already heavily pushing this narrative, and it has a receptive audience among working class people whose wages have been stagnant for a long time. These are the same people who were receptive to Donald Trump's message.

The backlash isn't some minor factor. There are millions of workers directly employed by fossil fuel and ICE auto industries. Tens of millions whose livelihoods indirectly depend on them. If the message catches on, this group of people is going to stick to ICE even as EV becomes better, as a badge of cultural identity. It sounds irrational for 30-40% of people to cling to ICE out of cultural resentment, but hey look a similar percentage refused a vaccine during a pandemic for the same reason. 30-40% sticking to ICE means climate doom.

By getting the Detroit 3 and the UAW to commit to all-EV by 2035, at that White House EV summit, Biden has taken away that option. There will be no American brand ICE cars on sale at all. He has anticipated and mitigated the anti-EV backlash.

Biden's been pushing EVs for over a decade. Biden's ATVM loan program funded Tesla's first factory! You really think Biden hates Tesla? Really? Lemme show you my ski condo in Delaware.

Now, there's another potential source of anti-EV backlash, one Elon Musk has noticed and worked to mitigate. All of the top-tier EV-only automakers are based in California: Tesla, Lucid, Rivian, even Fisker, Canoo, and Faraday. Imagine a future where the fossil fuel industry is gone and traditional auto is gone. Imagine all the wealth from the fossil fuel sector in Texas and the South, plus all the wealth from the Midwestern auto industry, instead being funneled to California. On top of all the truck, taxi, and bus driving jobs, being replaced by autonomous tech also coming from California. How's that gonna play in Middle America?

Elon Musk moved to California with nothing but a suitcase of clothes. He moved out a quarter century later the richest man in the world, richest because so many thousands of Californians worked their tails off for him for so many years. And he dated a string of hot celebrity chicks along the way! You really think Elon hates California? Really? You wanna see my oceanfront property in Austin?

So all of this, Biden hugging the UAW and Detroit 3, Elon putting distance to California, plus the climate bill being worked out between Manchin and Biden that's basically a payoff to fossil fuel workers, this is all about protecting the march to a zero GHG economy from being undermined by a backlash.

If you think Biden really hates Tesla and Elon really hates California, feel free to click disagree so I know who the suckers are.

Mea culpa. Sorry I got more worked up than I should have. It was late at night. I'm not bashing anyone here actually meant to defend the motives of everyone involved.

 

[jbcarioca]

That puts you in good company, but it does remind me of a story ...

My father is a theoretical mathematician with a long resume. Years ago he found out that his technically uneducated Aunt was making money in the stock market and he had no doubt he could do better. He spent 6 months studying the market ( 1/2 a PhD in his years) and then gave up, having concluded it was impossible to reliably make money from the sole application of math.

A couple of Nobel Prize winners discovered that at enormous cost to the US and world economies, they assumed their math would work as intended:

A Retrospective on the Demise of Long-Term Capital Management | CLS Blue Sky Blog

It's 10 years since the financial crisis , but there's another anniversary worth considering: Long-Term Capital Management's near demise.

clsbluesky.law.columbia.edu

The corollary that technical traders always, by definition, ignore:
Beware of boundary conditions!

That is to say, the past does help predict the future in generality. In specific it does not.
Thus predicting individual share movements is doomed. Predicting overall market movements is only slightly less plausible. Even Hari Seldon dealt in probabilistic terms.

It a bit sad to have so many people trying so hard to continue proving those points. Even Nobel Prize winners from time to time.

 

[lafrisbee]

I have come to the realization that Elon Musk is solving man's problems as fast as he can. The only reason we're doomed is because he won't live forever.

But wait, that just means that the remaining population of the world only has only one responsibility - keep Elon alive until he fixes everything. Can't we at least do that?

Seriously?
He will never die...
What do you think SpaceX, StarLink, Neuralink, and SubPrime are being developed to do... Darth Elon.
No, seriously. We ARE ALL ANTS.

 

[jbcarioca]

a graph of the highs of the day the closing price and a 20 day SMA
I'm not sure upon first glance if any usable ideas can come from it,
a more important to me is a serious deficiency in the NASDAQ data vs Schwab data, that I dont' know how to D/L yet
on 3/4/2021, NASDAQ reports the high as $873.94 vs Schwab (who calculate my portfolio balances) at $668.45
on 3/1/2021 NASDAQ reports the high as $872 vs Schwab as $700.20, not miniscule differances, so I am in a quandry as to how much of my data is "dirty"

View attachment 724643

The actual closing price is theoretically identical. However, posting of closing trades frequently lags, so closing price changes somewhat when large numbers of transactions happen in closing minutes and seconds. Many brokers and investment managers use the price showing at the relevant exchange at the closing bell. Then the posting lag makes a different closing price, and many brokers do not update their client posted data. When their own transactions appear among those closing moments they often still do not post the updated price, although they do post all trades accurately.

 

[lafrisbee]

I'm driving my girlfriend's Tesla! Without a backup Tesla I wouldn't have been too keen to sell. I also work-from-home so I don't need a car as much as these days.

Now we all think you have the hottest GF possible.

 

[lafrisbee]

Everyone is like the dog that chases the car their whole life.

Not very many actually unexpectedly catch the car.

You caught the car. Congrats. So....what now?

Wow thanks, Now I feel old as fudge.
(I can't even remember seeing a dog chasing a car. I know it happened. I just can't remember seeing it.)

 

[jerry33]

Wow thanks, Now I feel old as fudge.
(I can't even remember seeing a dog chasing a car. I know it happened. I just can't remember seeing it.)

I can recall seeing dogs chasing cars. It was a long time ago.

 

[lafrisbee]

That puts you in good company, but it does remind me of a story ...

My father is a theoretical mathematician with a long resume. Years ago he found out that his technically uneducated Aunt was making money in the stock market and he had no doubt he could do better. He spent 6 months studying the market ( 1/2 a PhD in his years) and then gave up, having concluded it was impossible to reliably make money from the sole application of math.

My wife just got (2 years ago) her Ph.D in stochastics. Her paper had something to do with predicting a stock price "within certain limitations."

 

[Artful Dodger]

many TSLA bulls are freaking crazy and think that it might go to $200k a share so they won’t sell at any price.

Hmm, we are on track for a $200K SP on Feb 22, 2058.

Now personally, I give myself slightly <50% chance of being around to see that, but who knows? With low-G medicine at Mars Colony One, I may be able to attend the County Fair at Giga Arcadia Planitia.

If not, I'll at least watch @avoigt livestream it on Youtube...

Cheers to the Longs!

P.S. (the following is not advice)

Income Strategies for Your Portfolio to Make Money Regularly https://www.investopedia.com › investing-strategy › inc...​

 

[ke6jph]

View attachment 724543

Ordered a solar roof with two power walls. Site plan approved by us. Waiting for local permits . Hoping to be done by the end of the year!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Whole lotta S-curve stuff is happening. Social media feed today....

Capitulation brings with it the necessity of obtaining shares. How many EV ETFs and funds will need to buy TSLA over the next 12 months as the world slowly realizes what's happening?

 

[Snerruc]

A couple of Nobel Prize winners discovered that at enormous cost to the US and world economies, they assumed their math would work as intended:

A Retrospective on the Demise of Long-Term Capital Management | CLS Blue Sky Blog

It's 10 years since the financial crisis , but there's another anniversary worth considering: Long-Term Capital Management's near demise.

clsbluesky.law.columbia.edu

The corollary that technical traders always, by definition, ignore:
Beware of boundary conditions!

That is to say, the past does help predict the future in generality. In specific it does not.
Thus predicting individual share movements is doomed. Predicting overall market movements is only slightly less plausible. Even Hari Seldon dealt in probabilistic terms.

It a bit sad to have so many people trying so hard to continue proving those points. Even Nobel Prize winners from time to time.

All the people trying to game the market with math or whatever should remember the chimpanzees beating the experts with darts or tearing pages off a Rolodex( remember them?).

 

[Rammstein]

Was talking to my friends last night and I mentioned TSLA is at an all time high. They scoffed and one was like why. One of my other friend piped up and laughed and said no reason at all. I then said well I think from this last quarter they showed their margins are a lot higher than other automakers. They just replied back and said yeah well for now but that could change. I didn’t keep the conversation going cause it’s like talking to brick walls. I did think to myself yeah margins can change and they will probably improve even more over the longterm.

Conversations like this tell me that most people don’t get Tesla yet. Therefore TSLA is not fairly valued yet. Hodl

 

[Artful Dodger]

I can recall seeing dogs chasing cars. It was a long time ago.

Dogs chase cars. Cats chaise lounge.

 

[Bouboule]

I'm looking for information on projections on EV production for top auto manufactures, similar to the image below. Does anyone have this info. Thx

 

[Singuy]

Was talking to my friends last night and I mentioned TSLA is at an all time high. They scoffed and one was like why. One of my other friend piped up and laughed and said no reason at all. I then said well I think from this last quarter they showed their margins are a lot higher than other automakers. They just replied back and said yeah well for now but that could change. I didn’t keep the conversation going cause it’s like talking to brick walls. I did think to myself yeah margins can change and they will probably improve even more over the longterm.

Conversations like this tell me that most people don’t get Tesla yet. Therefore TSLA is not fairly valued yet. Hodl

Dare them to find another company, any company, with multi trillion dollar TAM growing at 70% in revenue a year while posting an operating margin of almost 15%. This is currently unheard of. You usually either grow revenue excessively 50%+ without a very positive operating margin, or you have a healthy operating margin without massive growth. This is one of those times when an unicorn appeared hitting all three metrics, high growth, highly profitable during growth, and highest TAM company in the world.

My friend was asking me there are so many stocks on the market, how do you weed them out? The fact that you want a company with a large TAM already weeds out like 95% of then.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Was talking to my friends last night and I mentioned TSLA is at an all time high. They scoffed and one was like why. One of my other friend piped up and laughed and said no reason at all. I then said well I think from this last quarter they showed their margins are a lot higher than other automakers. They just replied back and said yeah well for now but that could change. I didn’t keep the conversation going cause it’s like talking to brick walls. I did think to myself yeah margins can change and they will probably improve even more over the longterm.

Conversations like this tell me that most people don’t get Tesla yet. Therefore TSLA is not fairly valued yet. Hodl

Lol, I have a couple friends like that who I haven't seen since before the pandemic. Most of what comes out of their mouths is just diesel breath. Sometimes, its just better to buy yourself:

Cheers!

 

[inconel]

I agree, time to call it a day. And to be honest I only brought it up in the first place because I was curious if 'teslanaire' started at 10M

Cheers !

My understanding is that 'teslanaire' starts at 1M and at 10M one becomes a 'tenlanaire'

 

[winfield100]

That is to say, the past does help predict the future in generality. In specific it does not.
Thus predicting individual share movements is doomed. Predicting overall market movements is only slightly less plausible. Even Hari Seldon dealt in probabilistic terms.

It a bit sad to have so many people trying so hard to continue proving those points. Even Nobel Prize winners from time to time.

However, Hari Seldon had Dors helping him, and from fading memory, Dors was a humanoid direct descendent of Susan Calvin's "bots" that could read minds ("Liar, liar") and/or one of "R Daneel Olivaw"'s 'instantiations' and roughly many 1,000's of years old

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Was talking to my friends last night and I mentioned TSLA is at an all time high. They scoffed and one was like why. One of my other friend piped up and laughed and said no reason at all. I then said well I think from this last quarter they showed their margins are a lot higher than other automakers. They just replied back and said yeah well for now but that could change. I didn’t keep the conversation going cause it’s like talking to brick walls. I did think to myself yeah margins can change and they will probably improve even more over the longterm.

Conversations like this tell me that most people don’t get Tesla yet. Therefore TSLA is not fairly valued yet. Hodl

You should show them the graph of operating margin for the past 2 years and how it relates to production volumes.

If they still claim that it's only temporary and/or could change.......I give you permission to call them a dumb*ss