Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Wicket]

Would like to revisit this tweet:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1452971377225576450

Over interpretation alert:
There is a subtle message there, Elon has always said he don’t want to crush competition and he is here to help the whole industry forward.

I think now with the experience of German protectionism trying to slow down GigaBerlin as much as they did, Elon had finally given up on them.

Now the goal is to save the local auto industry by replacing existing players, so skilled workers would still have their living without moving across continents.

Looking forward to GigaDetroit!

Gentrify every Mordor!

It seems to me the open question once again is the plausibility of opening michigan facilities without facing the unavoidable demand for UAW that will feel like a de facto requirement in Michigan (I assume but not being an expert).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think the difference is the EV credit means that Tesla would make another 5k or so in margin on each car, but without the credit I don't think Ford and GM can make any profit.

Right, which is what I meant when I said it's going to be entirely up to Tesla when it comes to the EV credit doing anything for legacy auto. They could pocket the extra profits/margin or they could drop prices and Ford/GM would still be in the exact same dire situation because now Tesla is undercutting them.

I personally think Tesla has been raising prices in preparation for the EV credit (some of it cost of goods too) and that when it passes, Tesla will no longer raise prices any but they also won't lower prices for a good couple of years.

 

[Mengy]

Don't mean to rain on y'all's parade but:

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Ford had a really good quarter honestly, but it had nothing to do with the Mach-E and everything to do with the new Bronco.

I like the Bronco, Ford did a great job designing it and hopefully they have a full EV Bronco coming down the line because I think it would sell very well.

 

[larmor]

The progressive and moderate Democrats in DC are still wrangling—still some about how much and on what they want to spend, but more now on how to pay for their bill.

They need to pull something together that they can all agree to and, if they do, then they would vote. They’re in a bit of a rush in general, but also specifically because Biden wants to have something to say at the climate conference in Glasgow (COP26).

While I’ll refrain both from handicapping the odds of progress/passage and from political commentary, it’s worth noting that any attempt to tax wealth, including taxing unrealized gains, will certainly be challenged as unconstitutional. No idea what will happen if the spending is approved, yet the funding mechanism is shot down by the Judicial branch—nothing good I expect.

I have an early press release of President Biden's speech for the climate conference in Galsgow, (paraphrasing): "We targeted the one company that is doing the most for climate change and specifically wrote legislation to tax the one individual in charge of this company so we can continue doing nothing for climate change. This person wants to take humanity to Mars, and saves the US 8 to 9 figures of US taxpayer dollars for each launch, which gives us extra motivation to tax the head of this company as well. This will ensure the US will remain solvent by making sure that this one individual will stay on earth. Now lets all hold hands and buy more oil."

 

[Prunesquallor]

Well........in reality the only company the EV credit will help is Tesla since Tesla is the only one that has producing at scale and has a near term ramp about to happen. The EV credit will have very limited impact for everyone else simply because they're not going to have battery supply to take advantage of it in any meaningful sure.

Maybe by 2024-2025 legacy auto will actually have decent enough battery supply to have modest production numbers. But at that point, it'll be lost cause. You could easily argue that the EV credit will harm legacy auto makers just as it not passing......just in different ways. Really depends on what Tesla decides to do when Austin/Berlin are ramped.

Tesla could just keep prices high and rake in so much profit which would allow legacy auto to have their small slice and make a small profit (A la Apple style) or lower prices and make slightly less profit....which would seriously hurt legacy auto.

Democrat's of course have no choice to be pass the EV credit now since it's unlikely they'll control all of Congress in the next 4 years at minimum.

Remember, the credit applies to PHEVs also. Legacy will milk that for all it is worth.

 

[Willrtsoon]

I

I think her job is more about making the shareholders happy in the near term than turning around GM in the long term. That's some other sucker's job in the future long after she has cashed out.

shes definitely not dumb, more like incompetent or not fix for the jobs at hands if her jobs is taking GM to next Phase of innovation challenges.

 

[Spacep0d]

I

shes definitely not dumb, more like incompetent or not fix for the jobs at hands if her jobs is taking GM to next Phase of innovation challenges.

If she's incompetent, not fit for the job, and remains CEO voluntarily—then I count that as 'dumb' if she's not also amazingly self-centered.

 

[Discoducky]

Ford Q3 Results

View attachment 726434

Net income in Q4 should pass Ford's. That'll be fun!

 

[thesmokingman]

It still astonishes me how some of these "expert analysts" have no idea of what they are talking about. This dude says he's confident both GM and Ford will surpass Tesla, then in the next breath he says he doesn't follow Tesla. Then how can you know GM and Ford will do better if you don't know what the target is??!?!?!

Much salt is needed to decipher the trash they spew sometimes. The thing to keep in mind is that these analysts are all biased and say what is in their best interest. At times they may feel differently but they cannot contradict the firms they represent and their holdings etc.

 

[Drumheller]

Off topic:

I would appreciate some thoughts from others on my situation. Please do not reply here. Instead, please send a private message to me if you are willing to share your thoughts.

I'm purchasing a house and need to sell some shares for the down payment. I could take a line of credit loan from the broker. I dislike taking on more debt, but there are opinions here that tsla may run up for the remainder of this year. I realize no one knows for certain, but I'd like to read some thoughts or ideas on how best to do this. I've never sold a single share so this feels a bit wrong, even though it has been in my plan since I sold my last house in 2019 and put much of the equity into tsla.

First world problem.

 

[Willrtsoon]

So now Uber will be Tesla. How long before Waymo?

It’s pure Bs PR from UBER. 2023? Allowing it drive to leases for $334 a month? Heck Uber driver can just buy directly from Tesla for half price and they can get the car in couple months, not 2023.

 

[Willrtsoon]

It’s pure Bs PR from UBER. 2023? Allowing it drive to leases for $334 a month? Heck Uber driver can just buy directly from Tesla for half price and they can get the car in couple months, not 2023.

Sorry $334 a week

 

[woodisgood]

I have an early press release of President Biden's speech for the climate conference in Galsgow, (paraphrasing): "We targeted the one company that is doing the most for climate change and specifically wrote legislation to tax the one individual in charge of this company so we can continue doing nothing for climate change. This person wants to take humanity to Mars, and saves the US 8 to 9 figures of US taxpayer dollars for each launch, which gives us extra motivation to tax the head of this company as well. This will ensure the US will remain solvent by making sure that this one individual will stay on earth. Now lets all hold hands and buy more oil."

Thought this was real until the "holds hands" part.

 

[22522]

If she's incompetent, not fit for the job, and remains CEO voluntarily—then I count that as 'dumb' if she's not also amazingly self-centered.

I think she is playing the cards she was dealt well. Nobody is fit for that job.

The battery architecture they chose feels wrong, but I have not looked deep enough to have a well founded opinion. In other words,
If the battery architecture were OK, she is doing a good job with the hand she was dealt.

I would not be surprised if she knew Nikola was smoke and mirrors, but had some reason to let it run the way it did.

 

[Christine69420]

Great explanation of what went on the past few days in the SP bump past 1000 and what to expect going into Friday

Updating his Bloomberg article : How a 2,360% Jump in Call Options Fired Up Tesla’s Share Surge

" .. In the simplest form, when someone buys calls, a dealer must buy Tesla’s stock to hedge the delta exposure generated by those options trades. If the stock keeps rising, it forces dealers to buy more shares, a process know as gamma hedging.

According to Kochuba’s analysis, Monday started with traders selling calls, which led to a slight negative delta reading. As the stock started to lift off around 10 a.m. in New York, these call sellers were forced to cover their positions. That coincided with Tesla’s share advance toward $980.

Around noon, traders began flooding in to purchase calls, sparking a surge in delta hedging that accompanied Tesla’s ascent toward $1,000. Then two hours later, another wave of call buying hit the market. The stock peaked near $1,045, right before the estimated delta hedging started to taper off.



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Note: Tesla’s stock price and option delta on Oct. 25. Source: SpotGamma

Notably, half of the calls traded were maturing Friday. The Tesla $1,050 call expiring exactly that day -- the second most active contract on Monday -- surged to $18.19 from 71 cents, a 25-fold increase.

“This was an incredible push by short duration traders to push into calls,” said Kochuba. That “ likely forced market makers to aggressively hedge long.”

The fact that all the trading was concentrated in short-dated options can be viewed as a tactic by some traders trying to take advantage of a phenomenon known as a “gamma squeeze” -- betting that as the value of Tesla shares gets closer to an option’s strike price, dealers will have to buy more and more of the underlying stock.

“This is the definition of ‘weaponized gamma,’” said Nomura strategist Charlie McElligott.
.... "

A very informative and useful video about what is going on with my investment! I have never traded any options and still found this super useful. Many thanks to @DaveT for making this!

Very recommended for other option noobs here!

 

[Electroman]

Billionaire tax is the worst and most perverse plan ever - Aswath Damodaran, Professor NYU Stern

 

[Willrtsoon]

Off topic:

I would appreciate some thoughts from others on my situation. Please do not reply here. Instead, please send a private message to me if you are willing to share your thoughts.

I'm purchasing a house and need to sell some shares for the down payment. I could take a line of credit loan from the broker. I dislike taking on more debt, but there are opinions here that tsla may run up for the remainder of this year. I realize no one knows for certain, but I'd like to read some thoughts or ideas on how best to do this. I've never sold a single share so this feels a bit wrong, even though it has been in my plan since I sold my last house in 2019 and put much of the equity into tsla.

First world problem.

If yours Access appreciate more per year than loans interest then take the loans and keep the access.Vice versa.that’s what I would do.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

While we're discussing other people's packs, I have an ID3 question.

What do we think about the quality of just their modules? I saw EVWest doing a pack teardown and the modules look nice and compact like a Model S. Thinking a wrecked ID3 might make a good source of modules for my Wrangler TJ conversion. Model 3/Y modules are way too big.

I assume VW will sell something in large quantities in the US/CA market using this platform?

 

[thesmokingman]

While we're discussing other people's packs, I have an ID3 question.

What do we think about the quality of just their modules? I saw EVWest doing a pack teardown and the modules look nice and compact like a Model S. Thinking a wrecked ID3 might make a good source of modules for my Wrangler TJ conversion. Model 3/Y modules are way too big.

I assume VW will sell something in large quantities in the US/CA market using this platform?

I've seen ppl use the Volt modules with good success combined with Tesla motors.

Factory Five 818 Tesla powered

FF 818 kitcar built off Subaru WRX running gear with Tesla P85D electrics. Plaid level times lol

teslamotorsclub.com

Factory Five 818C Becomes Quarter-Mile Monster With Tesla Powertrain

EV-Controls.com built a Factory Five 818C with 2 Tesla electric motors, 2 Chevy Volt battery packs and it did a quarter-mile run in 9.3 seconds at 137.9 mph.

insideevs.com

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

I motion for a moratorium on political wealth tax discussions in this thread.

First of all, it is unlikely to affect TSLA much if implemented.

Besides this, the constitutionality of the proposed tax is highly questionable because the US Constitution says that federal taxes must be evenly apportioned among the States based on population, although there is an amendment that allows federal taxes on any form of income without apportionment. To assert that unrealized capital gains are income is a major stretch, especially when realized capital gains, corporate earnings and dividends are all already federally taxed. Thus, this appears to me to be political theater so the politicians can look like they're being tough on wealth inequality to avoid discussing closure of actual billionaire-accessible loopholes in the US tax laws.

Let’s think this through for a second. Since almost all of Elon’s money is tied up in either Tesla or SpaceX stock how would he go about paying for unrealized capital gains taxes? Do you honestly believe he wouldn’t have to sell Tesla stock? And when he does, what effect do you think it would have on the stock price? Furthermore, these quarterly or yearly required stock sales would reduce the number of shares Elon holds and consequently reduce the amount of control he has over the company. Therefore I disagree with you that this is a nothing burger.