Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[madodel]

Hummer EV battery is indeed larger than a Tesla

Saw him on CNBC today. No one questioned his idiotic comment about Ford and GM will overtake Tesla and be #1 and 2 in EVs based on battery production just because they make a lot of cars and they are going to build battery factories, though he doesn't follow Tesla, just every other car manufacturer. Apparently Tesla isn't ever going to make any more batteries than they do today.

 

[Discoducky]

I would not be surprised if she knew Nikola was smoke and mirrors

I don't give that much credit. Batteries are very hard to understand, even for those that are steeped in the tech. Even Jordan with The Limiting Factor has to really go deep to understand what is being shown and presented.

While I hope that the announced chemistry works out for them; I highly doubt it. Why? If they truly had something you can bet your bottom dollar that they'd be shouting it from the hilltops. I pay attention to what is NOT being said in their paid marketing articles. We know that in order to be competitive they MUST beat Tesla at Tesla's game prior to losing enough market share to be scale positive. I'd give them until 2024 prior to massive structuring like VW and Daimler are doing now.

 

[Gigapress]

Let’s think this through for a second. Since almost all of Elon’s money is tied up in either Tesla or SpaceX stock how would he go about paying for unrealized capital gains taxes? Do you honestly believe he wouldn’t have to sell Tesla stock? And when he does, what effect do you think it would have on the stock price? Furthermore, these quarterly or yearly required stock sales would reduce the number of shares Elon holds and consequently reduce the amount of control he has over the company. Therefore I disagree with you that this is a nothing burger.

Those are good points, although even if he does have to sell, everyone else thinks the stock is worth what it's worth so at least in theory it would have minimal effect on the price. I also wonder whether he could pay for it by simply expanding his margin loans instead of selling shares.

However I still believe the proposal is blatantly unconstitutional so on that point alone I still believe it's irrelevant.

OT relevant passages of US Constitution:
"The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises"

"...direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers"

"...nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws."

"The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several States, and without regard to any census or enumeration."

 

[RobDickinson]

"How are you going to cope with the rollout, charging etc did you think about that?"

Man what a stupid question. Installing chargers isnt hard and they'll have to do it one day soon anyhow or go out of business (again).

 

[Fred42]

Just a note that VW's Tennessee factory that will make ID.4's is supposed to come online in 2022. I suspect they will be challenged to sell them at retail in sufficient quantity at good enough prices for financial success. This would set them up as a match for rental companies and other US fleet buyers. A less good choice for the buyers than Teslas, but the price of the deals could reflect that.

 

[RobDickinson]

I'm guessing Europcar isnt a thing in USA (VW bought that earlier in the year)

 

[22522]

I don't give that much credit. Batteries are very hard to understand, even for those that are steeped in the tech. Even Jordan with The Limiting Factor has to really go deep to understand what is being shown and presented.

While I hope that the announced chemistry works out for them; I highly doubt it. Why? If they truly had something you can bet your bottom dollar that they'd be shouting it from the hilltops. I pay attention to what is NOT being said in their paid marketing articles. We know that in order to be competitive they MUST beat Tesla at Tesla's game prior to losing enough market share to be scale positive. I'd give them until 2024 prior to massive structuring like VW and Daimler are doing now.

Did you invest in Nikola?

 

[StealthP3D]

Even the newer players like Rivian and Lucid (for whatever you think of them) will struggle without that boost.

Even with the EV tax credit, the newer players like Rivian and Lucid will struggle.

 

[ZachF]

Would like to revisit this tweet:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1452971377225576450

Over interpretation alert:
There is a subtle message there, Elon has always said he don’t want to crush competition and he is here to help the whole industry forward.

I think now with the experience of German protectionism trying to slow down GigaBerlin as much as they did, Elon had finally given up on them.

Now the goal is to save the local auto industry by replacing existing players, so skilled workers would still have their living without moving across continents.

Looking forward to GigaDetroit!

Gentrify every Mordor!

I don’t think the East coast Gigafactory will be in Detroit. If I had guess, my short list would probably be Nashville or Indianapolis.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 24 minutes ago: 4 Ways Hertz Is Creating Value For Tesla

 

[ZachF]

Which has not turned out to be true. Still waiting for the likes of most of western Europe to run out of other peoples money.

Fwiw though, Europe has massively underperformed the US and Asia the last ~30 years. While the US has remained about 25% of the global economy since ~1990, Western Europe’s share has declined from 34% to 19%. The last couple decades Europe has been the world’s economic laggard… 14 years after the meltdown real GDP per capita will still be lower in most W.European countries this year than before it.

 

[ZachF]

Even with the EV tax credit, the newer players like Rivian and Lucid will struggle.

As long as all of the $$$ isn’t hoovered up by union-made PHEVs. (Will Rivian and Lucid even be eligible with the ASPs of their initial models?)

At least Rivian and Lucid also have a much different investment climate, unlike Tesla in the ‘teens. People are throwing money at them instead of at short-sellers who want them destroyed.

 

[Christine69420]

An interesting tweet from Gary Black - the second tweet here too:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453437841069981700

Text in tweet:

The avg $TSLA WS PT is now $755, -27% below the current price. While not a record, the spread is very wide historically. Analysts with Buy ratings on $TSLA have an avg PT of $990, also below the current price. Analysts don’t normally have Buy ratings with PTs below the price.

How will this play out?

 

[Thekiwi]

Wow, you really think $12B in 2022 is possible? My model estimates it more like $7.5B for 2022, but then I think I'll be low for 2021 also....

You may need to check your model for errors. $7.5B in 2022 net income would mean almost no growth over current vehicle capacity. $12 B is where I’m at as well for 2022 net income.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

An interesting tweet from Gary Black - the second tweet here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453437841069981700

Text in tweet:


How will this play out?

The spread is wide - dollar wise.......not percentage wise, historically. That's just because of the share price/marketcap nowadays. Plenty and plenty of times in the past 2 years the gap, percentage-wise, was greater than this. It's also being distorted by the handful of very low PT's out there.

Gary's kinda making himself look silly here.

 

[LYTRIDR]

"The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several States, and without regard to any census or enumeration."

I'm not a constitutional lawyer, and I'm sure others could disagree, but it seems to me this statement directly allows for taxes on unrealized gains, not apportioned to states. A perfect example of this activity is the bitcoin impairment. Tesla has no taxable event associated with the reduction in taxes for BTC impairment, however there is a negative income effect and therefore a tax effect based on the movement of Bitcoin.

While the Bitcoin treatment is not necessarily a perfect analogy, mark to market treatment of securities seems to be close.

To wit: "Mark to market" or "MTM" is an accounting method where the price or value of a security reflects its current market value. As applied to taxes from trading it means that each security held open at year end is treated as if it were sold at fair market value (FMV) on the last business day of the tax year.

I believe you are reading too much restriction into the definition of income based on the current tax code. There is no reason that a law could not simply define income as "an increase in the value of a publicly-traded security(stock, bond, derivative, etc) as reflected by the current market value of such asset, as of the end of each calendar year."

Why would mark to market treatment of such an asset fail to pass constitutional muster?

 

[ZachF]

You may need to check your model for errors. $7.5B in 2022 net income would mean almost no growth over current vehicle capacity. $12 B is where I’m at as well for 2022 net income.

I have $80b rev and $12b profit as a guess for 2022.

Also, when Tesla pays off all of its debt next year it’ll get its debt rating upgraded as well!

 

[MikeC]

The spread is wide - dollar wise.......not percentage wise, historically. That's just because of the share price/marketcap nowadays. Plenty and plenty of times in the past 2 years the gap, percentage-wise, was greater than this. It's also being distorted by the handful of very low PT's out there.

Gary's kinda making himself look silly here.

I think the point that most analysts with a buy are still <$1000 PT is useful. If these analysts don't want to switch their rating to hold or sell (and they shouldn't because they know the numbers that TSLA will be putting up in Q4 and beyond), they'll have to increase their targets like MS and GS just did. That could solidify the trillion dollar market cap.

 

[ThisStockGood]

Piper Sandler 1300 PT

Piper Sandler Sets New Street-High Tesla Stock Price Target (TSLA) - Tesla Daily

Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter has issued an updated note on Tesla stock, increasing the firm's price target to the highest on Wall Street.

t.co

 

[st_lopes]

Not true. If a bank leases your EV, they get the credit. Often part of it is passed on to the consumer as a lower lease price, but the finance corporation that technically buys the car and leases it to you gets the fed tax credit.

I believe the incentive in current form is a rebate at point of sale. So the funds actually flow to the seller and the actual amount financed by the bank would be net if the rebate. I may be entirely wrong though.