Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dhanson865]

Some really neat colors on the lot. I counted 14 new/unique.

View attachment 730222

Discussion on reddit was that these are wraps and were added either at the factory post production but pre delivery or the cars are back on the lot post wrap because of weird Chinese laws about inspections the owners have to submit the car back to the manufacturer.

either way they aren't new colors of paint offered by Tesla

Tesla encourages customization in China with wrapping service launch

Tesla has launched an in-house car wrap service at some of the company’s delivery centers in at least five Chinese cities. The service will be available for all cars across the company’s fleet in China. A post from Tesla’s Customer Service page on Weibo stated that the company would launch a...

www.teslarati.com

vs

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/qo4bbm/_/hjlfljs

 

[MXWing]

I think I'm bored of making so much money. Elon clearly knows that I'm tired of winning. Thank you, Elon!

In all seriousness, I think this sort of decision should have been brought up at the annual meeting. Random Twittards, most of which are the worst humans living on Earth today, should not be making this decision. Shareholders should be.

No *sugar*. Thanks for having some common sense.

I think the poll results would be identical were Elon to ask if the pope is catholic?

 

[Dutchie]

Just wondering if the stock indeed falls what kind of legal trouble both Kimbal and Elon will get in. Last week Kimbal sold 88,500 TSLA. Insider trading? Not very smart this.
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) Director Kimbal Musk Sells 88,500 Shares

 

[Matias]

Really? A ~2% of the whole company will tank the stock? What if he’s selling OTC, not on the market, as someone really really needs to buy and hodl?

One of the basic rules of investing is, that when the inner circle is selling, you should sell too.

 

[Matias]

Started listening to it, was dissapointed. Maybe it gets more thoughtful later, but Dave is making the mistake that Elon is doing this emotionally out of short-term pressure, which I am sure he is not. Reminds of Dave's position a few years ago, when he was very much in favour of Elon leaving the running of Tesla to somebody else....

You think think that guy you who tweets pedophile accusations doesn’t sometimes tweet emotionally?

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1457093117761310720

https://twitter.com/x/status/1457100532711972864

 

[Buckminster]

Can someone explain how Elon exercising his options will work. Does he end up buying back the shares he has just sold? Will he end up with more of less shares than he has today? Could his buying (exercising) cause a squeeze to counteract tomorrow's sell off?

SP could go up regardless. Elon selling could be seen by the BM funds to be their last chance at getting to equal weight. They need to buy many more than Elon is selling.

 

[elasalle]

Last week Elon said he would sell upto $6B, for WFP - he was hoping they would provide the details and he could sell

… he felt dejected

.. so this week he puts out for a vote where he knows for sure there are more haters and they will definitely select yes so his selling plans were definitely going to get approved

 

[FrANce]

You think think that guy you who tweets pedophile accusations doesn’t sometimes tweet emotionally?

So what? Trusting Elon has worked for me so far, so that’s what I am planning to do in the future, too.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

May we live in interesting times!

Does Elon selling a good chunk of stonks change anything?
Yes and No.

Yes:
Elon is soul spirit animal of Tesla.
From now on, there will always be the nagging thought of "Maybe Elon is over Tesla?". Maybe he got tired of working 100+ hours a week, dealing with Tesla drama. Maybe he will quit as CEO as well. Maybe, maybe ... maybe.
These considerations have always been known, but recently everything (FSD, dojo, bot) and so on has pointed far into the future. There was the hope, that with all this, Elon could keep being engaged and interested in Tesla.
Selling off stonks begs the question: Is this the beginning of Elon divesting from Tesla - both economically and re. his time and focus?

No:
As others have pointed out: This may well be a political move.
And one that Tesla HODL'ers should support inasmuch as we are invested in Tesla because we share Elons general outlook on the world and the future.

Maybe Elon did some first principles thinking, and have identified a new threath to humanity: Corosive ideology, dragging us down, instead of lifting us up.
What if that ideology over time will develop or devolve into a "Earth First" movement, effectually banning space exploration?
What if that ideology over time will stymie humanity and we devolve into barbarism?
Regard Elons remarks about the fragility of civilization and the light of consciousness.
Maybe the window for changing the outcome of the future is starting to close, and the light of consciousness is flickering. Maybe that flame needs re-kindling.

What if it is not global warming or evil AIs or meteors or pandemics that will spell the end for humanity, but instead of excellence and innovation we will become obsessed with equality at all costs - even if the end result might well be a Harrison Bergeron-scenario.

Elon is an engineer - and all problems are engineering problems.
How to change the future? Change peoples minds. How to do that? Education!

We know that Elon's ventures start out as what for other people would be a rather lame joke - consider Boring.
I think that Elon is very serious about T.I.T.S.
In fact, I would not be surprised if TITS is only the first in a chain of new education initiatives.

TLDR;
In order to save the world Elon has no choice but to engineer giant TITS all over America!

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

One of the basic rules of investing is, that when the inner circle is selling, you should sell too.

That only applies when the inner circle is selling because the company is performing badly or because they know bad news is coming. Elon is only selling for tax and political purposes. Kimbal has been selling regularly, also just before this big runup. Which shows his selling is not related to inside information. Other insiders have also sold regularly and randomly, missing out on a lot of stock appreciation. The only ones making a fuss about it are the TESLAQ crowd.

 

[Tslynk67]

Even Elon can't bring TSLA down

That aged well

 

[SwTslaGrl]

I think it's interesting that you can make a huge decision (money wise) through a twitter poll, perhaps a test for direct democracy in a future Mars colony? It's a contrast to how it's done in the US law making..

 

[Artful Dodger]

Can someone explain how Elon exercising his options will work. Does he end up buying back the shares he has just sold? Will he end up with more of less shares than he has today? Could his buying (exercising) cause a squeeze to counteract tomorrow's sell off?

SP could go up regardless. Elon selling could be seen by the BM funds to be their last chance at getting to equal weight. They need to buy many more than Elon is selling.

Whole Mars Catalog on Twitter: "Elon is selling 2% of $TSLA to buy 9.2% of $TSLA and the government gets over $12 billion in taxes, more than the cash elon takes home" / Twitter

 

[Artful Dodger]

From now on, there will always be the nagging thought of "Maybe Elon is over Tesla?". Maybe he got tired of working 100+ hours a week, dealing with Tesla drama. Maybe he will quit as CEO as well.

We may know this part relatively soon: Elon's 3 years are up today.

Announcing Robyn Denholm as Tesla’s New Board Chair | Tesla.com Nov 7, 2018

Elon Musk on Twitter: "Would like to thank Robyn for joining the team. Great respect. Very much look forward to working together.… "​

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Monday headline: “In anticipation of Elon selling his TSLA shares, the S&P 500 dropped drastically, triggering a chain reaction of stop loss orders and sending the world economy into a recession. Twitter ‘yes’ voters ‘feel stupid’”

 

[CorneliusXX]

Elon selling could be seen by the BM funds to be their last chance at getting to equal weight. They need to buy many more than Elon is selling.

Good point - Perhaps Elon has figured that substantially increasing the float of available shares is the only way to stop BM funds bidding TSLA up far beyond the current price - which would have brought with it the downsides on recruitment and employee retention many have mentioned here in the past.

 

[lascavarian]

We may know this part relatively soon: Elon's 3 years are up today.

Announcing Robyn Denholm as Tesla’s New Board Chair | Tesla.com Nov 7, 2018

Elon Musk on Twitter: "Would like to thank Robyn for joining the team. Great respect. Very much look forward to working together.… "​

There is the suggestion of the beginning of a pattern. EM may not always be key executive at Tesla, Elon may not be at all investor calls, Elon not on investor call, Elon may be exiting some stock….

Seems unlikely he will resume Robyn’s current roll. Seems likely divesture on some level may be beginning. Good for him.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Seems unlikely he will resume Robyn’s current roll. Seems likely divesture on some level may be beginning. Good for him.

Elon's 2018 CEO compensation plan requires that he remain either the CEO or Executive Chairman and Chief Product Architect in order for each of his tranches to vest. He still has 3 tranches which have not vested (paging @The Accountant). Elon's not going to walk away. That's on the order of $30B in stock options in today's prices, much more over the coming 5 years.

Elon has always said "I don't want to be CEO of anything", it just worked out that was the most direct path from A to B. Elon thinks of himself as an engineer, that's what he's happiest doing, and it's how the 2018 compensation plan was structured (so he's not locked in as CEO).

I've said for some time that Zach is likely to be the next CEO. I think he'll do fine, Elon will do fine, and Tesla will do well. Robyn can continue as a Director, she's already working remotely from Australia.

Paging @mongo for the 2018 CEO stock award vesting requirements.

 

[mongo]

Paging @mongo for the 2018 CEO stock award vesting requirements.

Hey,
You've already covered it.

Mr. Musk must also remain as Tesla’s CEO or serve as both Executive Chairman and Chief Product Officer, in each case with all leadership ultimately reporting to him, at the time each milestone is met in order for the corresponding tranche to vest. This ensures Mr. Musk’s active leadership of Tesla over the long-term while also providing the flexibility to bring in another CEO who would report to Mr. Musk at some point in the future. Although there is no current intention for this to happen, it provides flexibility as Tesla continues to grow to potentially allow Mr. Musk to focus more of his attention on the kinds of key product and strategic matters that most impact Tesla’s long-term growth and profitability.

CEO or (Chairman and Chief Product Officer) to vest on top of one capitalization (already fullfilled) and one performance goal per tranche.
8 revenue: 20, 35, 55, 75, 100, 125, 150, 175B
8 EBITDA: 1.5, 3, 4.5, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14B
Both types are based on the sum of the previous four quarters. Bold are already achieved so he is 7/12 so far. From 10-Q:

The plan: Proxy Statement