Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Motor Mouth]

Compare Elon's volume of sales to the average market volume of sales. As long as the trades are spread out it's not a dump.

I agree with this - I believe it's calculated to allow a controlled drop, not a cliff. IMO it's a slow motion buying opportunity for those with the means. It's an early holiday gift. I can't help but think that looking back from the perspective of early 2022 this is going to look like the most obvious buying opportunity possibly in the company's history. Of course...not an advice.

 

[Nocturnal]

The only valid reason I can see for that is if you simply can't afford the extra shares. If they hit, you will eventually be very glad they did!

Oh, those are the puts I purchased for a little bit of insurance. I also sold some cash covered puts at $980 which I won't mind executing. Lots of free cash in the account from calls.

 

[JRP3]

In the end it will get me cheaper shares, but I still would have preferred it if he had taken a different path.

Why, you'd rather pay more for shares?

 

[st_lopes]

Gary has a point though. If EM is going to be selling a few hundred thousand shares everyday for the next couple weeks won’t TSLA price be capped? Perfect time to sell weekly calls

I don’t understand all the hate towards Gary Black today. He isn’t wrong. Why would anyone be buying shares now knowing that Elon will be dumping 500K+ shares/day for the foreseeable future? I know I’m staying away until we know it’s over. And that’s why I think Elon has handled this completely the wrong way. He is adding to the FUD. In the end it will get me cheaper shares, but I still would have preferred it if he had taken a different path.

I think Gary is very wrong about this. Insiders typically have a very specific trading window for executing trades. The most common example is 22 full trading days after Earnings Release (more specifically, 20 days after ER+2). One example: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164964/000101968715004168/globalfuture_8k-ex9904.htm

We also know that 10b5-1 plans generally will respect the insider trading window (see same link above).

We know Elon has stated intention to exercise and sell to cover a big block of options expiring next year, namely to mitigate from having to pay an extra surtax on those same options if he exercises them in 2022. We know that Elon has now publicly stated that he intends to sell 10% of his holdings to appease the woke mob (sorry for the politicization mods... but kinda true).

So triangulate... assuming Tesla follows the same vanilla Insider Trading Policy as other companies, any trades Elon intends to make before the end of this year must be completed by mid-late next week (Nov 17th if you count 20 days from ER, but I may be missing a day or two where markets were closed). That's not 4 weeks away, that's at most 5 trading sessions away.

I expect to see a steady climb of selling pressure next week as Elon finalizes all of his selling for the year.

 

[Singuy]

Just imagine how all these people who are not jumping on this sales right now are gonna react comes 1/2 when P&D comes out with 300k printed on it.

Elon's lack of randomness on his share selling doesn't exactly scream deal today as he is only like 35% done. I wish there's more randomness to this but when you know exactly how much he is selling, how many shares he still needs to sell, and when he will most likely complete the sell, I'm not surprised people are on the sideline waiting. So in many ways I agree with Gary.

 

[elasalle]

After this last run up that zapped most of my option gains for the year I’m not selling a single call until after there’s a split, even if that’s a long time from now.

My Jan 23 1900' CC (rolled into this monday/tue) are up almost 16%
Long way to go, and anything can happen, will need to react accordingly.

(Selling CC's from 600's pre-split. Many ups' and downs and lessons learnt along the way .... in each case added to my core shares)

 

[Accident]

Troy is now at 280k deliveries and 300k production for Q4. That's 926k cars produced for the year.

Wall Street is still at 264k

 

[larmor]

Troy is now at 280k deliveries and 300k production for Q4. That's 926k cars produced for the year.

Wall Street is still at 264k

Conservative estimate on deliveries is always good, because delivery of durable goods is hard and subject to ongoing external factors, contractors, etc.

 

[Artful Dodger]

They reintroduced the Model Y SR in China because demand wasn’t there for a higher end Model Y.

This is completely false. The Model Y in China now ships exclusively, and only, with an LFP battery made by CATL. After the recent name change, Model Y LR is the long range with NCM chemistry cells. Tesla simply DOES NOT have enough of that Li-Ion bty cell supply from LG in order to build any more volume of LR Models Y. Tesla HAS to have LFP cells to expand. This is not a demand problem.

Giga Shanghai recently activated its 2nd General Assembly line to build Models Y. Likely, the 1st line builds only the LR version, and the 2nd line builds the CATL/LFP version.

Car production is ALL ABOUT logistics. You have to plan for the supply of parts from 3rd parties literally years in advance to make things work.

DEMAND IS NOT A PROBLEM.

 

[mars_or_bust]

On a wider point, I appreciate members posting Tesla related tweets because I am not on twitter so this is my only source of Tesla Twitter things

Here is a good tweet series about the Tesla stock sales:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1459195182721679369

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think Gary is very wrong about this. Insiders typically have a very specific trading window for executing trades. The most common example is 22 full trading days after Earnings Release (more specifically, 20 days after ER+2). One example: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164964/000101968715004168/globalfuture_8k-ex9904.htm

We also know that 10b5-1 plans generally will respect the insider trading window (see same link above).

We know Elon has stated intention to exercise and sell to cover a big block of options expiring next year, namely to mitigate from having to pay an extra surtax on those same options if he exercises them in 2022. We know that Elon has now publicly stated that he intends to sell 10% of his holdings to appease the woke mob (sorry for the politicization mods... but kinda true).

So triangulate... assuming Tesla follows the same vanilla Insider Trading Policy as other companies, any trades Elon intends to make before the end of this year must be completed by mid-late next week (Nov 17th if you count 20 days from ER, but I may be missing a day or two where markets were closed). That's not 4 weeks away, that's at most 5 trading sessions away.

I expect to see a steady climb of selling pressure next week as Elon finalizes all of his selling for the year.

Yeah I don’t know where Gary is getting 4 weeks. Very clear that insiders can only sell within certain time windows. Just another week or so for Elon to finish selling

 

[Artful Dodger]

I’m kinky if they hit 310k at this point

↑ Your Freudian slip is showing.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla exec explains where ‘real competition’ is coming from, and why the battle is far from over

Tesla Head of Investor Relations Martin Viecha recently shared some important insights about the real “competition” that the company is facing. According to the executive, Tesla is not really competing against competitive electric vehicles. Instead, the company is looking to take market share...

www.teslarati.com

Viecha noted in a Twitter post that he had been asked about Tesla’s competitors practically daily for the past five years. But despite the prevalence of the idea that new EV makers are competing with Tesla to gain a bigger share of the electric vehicle segment, the Head of Investor Relations noted that ultimately, the discussion should not even be about the EV market. Instead, it has to be about the fact that even this year, well over 90% of vehicles that are sold would be equipped with the internal combustion engine.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Conservative estimate on deliveries is always good, because delivery of durable goods is hard and subject to ongoing external factors, contractors, etc.

Elon already said their going to try to flatten the wave in Q4. I read that to mean that they'll pad 2020Q1 deliveries nos. with production drawn from 21Q4, to help lessen the margin impact on opening 2 new Giga factories in 22Q1.

Tesla has recently stated that Giga Berlin will begin production with the high margin Performance Model Y. I'm sure they'll do the same at Giga Texas, but as I've suggested here before this would be the IDEAL time to introduce a "made in Texas" Plaid Model Y. Simple parts swap for the front motor from AC Induction to SRPM (w. carbon ala the Plaid S). That's why the motors use the same castings so the switch can be made seemlessly.

But a Plaid Model Y, Founders Edition, equiped with a 100KWh 4680 bty pack and 760+ hp from two Plaid PM motors would EASILY command a retail price over $100K. There'll be some positive margins in that no matter what the Q1 production numbers, and STILL a faster car than a Ferrari. Want!

Cheers!

 

[elasalle]

Tesla Is the Most Sold Car Brand in Norway in 2021

2021 marks the highest level of Norway's transition to electric vehicles, and Tesla vehicles play an important role in this. Tesla has become the best-selling brand in the country in 2021 among all on the market.

www.tesmanian.com

 

[Singuy]

Yeah I don’t know where Gary is getting 4 weeks. Very clear that insiders can only sell within certain time windows. Just another week or so for Elon to finish selling

20 trading days = 4 weeks tho I think Musk only has 2 total weeks since the poll was conducted 2 weeks after 48hrs post earnings when the window opened.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

I've suggested here before this would be the IDEAL time to introduce a "made in Texas" Plaid Model Y. Simple parts swap for the front motor from AC Induction to SRPM (w. carbon ala the Plaid S). That's why the motor use the sase casings, so the switch can be made seemlessly.

But a Plaid Model Y, Founders Edition, respendent with a 100KWh 4680 bty pack and 760+ hp from two Plaid PM motors would EASILY command a retail price over $100K. That'll be some positive margins no matter what the production, and STILL faster than a Ferrari.

Cheers!

Would love to see this from the perspective of an investor, from the perspective of a car enthusiast, and from the perspective of the planet.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

20 trading days = 4 weeks tho I think Musk only has 2 total weeks since the poll was conducted 2 weeks after 48hrs post earnings when the window opened.

He has until next Friday. That’s 20 trading days since Q3 earnings. Gary’s making it sound like this will continue in for the rest of the quarter.

The funny thing about Gary’s most recent non stop tirade on how Elon/Tesla do this business is that if we stay at roughly 1,000 until next Friday while Elon continues selling, then it’s very obvious Elon had the sells structured with the cooperation of the likes of MS/GS to have buy orders lines up for his sells above 1,000….which is pretty much exactly what Gary was saying at the start. Elon/Tesla just chose to do it in a different way. Elon can’t control if wall st tanks the stock on their own to buy shares closer to 1,000 instead of 1,100.

Sure it annoys the hell out of me but that’s not Elon’s fault

 

[bubb]

This is completely false. The Model Y in China now ships exclusively, and only, with an LFP battery made by CATL. After the recent name change, Model Y LR is the long range with NCM chemistry cells. Tesla simply DOES NOT have enough of that Li-Ion bty cell supply from LG in order to build any more volume of LR Models Y. Tesla HAS to have LFP cells to expand. This is not a demand problem.

Giga Shanghai recently activated its 2nd General Assembly line to build Models Y. Likely, the 1st line builds only the LR version, and the 2nd line builds the CATL/LFP version.

Car production is ALL ABOUT logistics. You have to plan for the supply of parts from 3rd parties literally years in advance to make things work.

DEMAND IS NOT A PROBLEM.

Agreed, not to mention that for the MIC MY LR Tesla prices it at ~347000CNY in China vs 59990EUR in EU, or in USD terms ~54k vs ~69k. Of course they are going to send most of these cars to Europe right now.

 

[ZachF]

Troy is now at 280k deliveries and 300k production for Q4. That's 926k cars produced for the year.

Wall Street is still at 264k

I was penciling in 1.5m for 2022 but I think that it may end up being ~1.8m. We’re already at/near 1.2m just from Fremont and Shanghai alone, and both of them are ramping along with two new factories which are larger…