Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tivoboy]

View attachment 738088
I pulled this off the Internet, it must be true.

Those numbers actually look pretty close to what I’ve seen before, but what’s more interesting is to overlay something like 4 year degree, advanced degree, and sadly race. Those numbers ultimately prove more interesting - and as you would imagine quite a bit higher.

 

[generalenthu]

I fully expect the Austin-built Model Y to have, among other things -

revised trim around the dash and doors - a la MIC
HEPA filter for bio-defence mode - a la MIC
front and rear castings
structural 4680 battery
new LV battery that lasts the life of the car
AMD chips driving the display

Also, new 0-60 acceleration, max DC charging power and EPA range numbers that we haven't seen yet

Quite a wish list. Don’t forget air suspension, HUD, and laser windshield wipers

Can I have matrix headlights while we're at it?

 

[tivoboy]

The latest covid variant, Omicron originating from South Africa, impacting world markets and our very livelihood, show what happens when countries act independently instead of together for the common humanity. Here in Canada we are now issuing booster (3rd) vaccine shots while many countries, such as those in South Africa, have yet to distribute a single vaccine dose to the majority of their population. I've read Canada has discarded >1M doses of vaccine due to over supply and passing expiration dates. Even within each country the discord is great between those who feel vaccination is a societal necessessity, and those who feel vaccination as compromising individual freedom. We just can't seem to get it right. We need to act together, in unity, every country, everyone. Until then, covid and its distruction will prevail. The weakest link breaks the chain for all, so we must work together to strenghthen the weakest links.

We have about 150 million vaccines doses in this country that will expire next month.. sadly nobody seems to want them in the South, so I say take‘em and send them to South Africa, Tanzania and Botswana.

 

[AudubonB]

MOD: We're getting both COVID and political O/T discussions here now.......

Endit

 

[dww12]

Can I have matrix headlights while we're at it?

Performance with single carbon wrapped rotor.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Performance with single carbon wrapped rotor.

And carbon brakes. (How can it be that carbon makes things go faster AND slower???)

 

[Wicket]

As a general point of order I would suggest that downvoting a post with multiple points that lacks some obvious overall incorrectness and for which there is also substantial support for.. and then not supplying any actual argument is mostly a performative display and unproductive. It doesn't map to normal interaction.

 

[insaneoctane]

I fully expect the Austin-built Model Y to have, among other things -

revised trim around the dash and doors - a la MIC
HEPA filter for bio-defence mode - a la MIC
front and rear castings
structural 4680 battery
new LV battery that lasts the life of the car
AMD chips driving the display

Also, new 0-60 acceleration, max DC charging power and EPA range numbers that we haven't seen yet

So what will Tesla do with Freemont MYs then? If what you say is true, won't the ramping up TX factory Osborne the full capacity CA factory?

 

[Causalien]

For those looking to scan the results of the TMC investors survey after closing their session, try here, TMC investors survey summary (please first complete the survey if you haven't already, but do not complete a 2nd time).

Thanks to @steve3 for the request.

Wow, 3/4 are teslanairs

 

[Wicket]

Wow, 3/4 are teslanairs

Age to me is the one I was interested in. I expected the average to be quite high and it was. If one happens to be younger then it is easy to be surprised by how high the net worth of older people that also picked an extremely successful stock is.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Age to me is the one I was interested in. I expected the average to be quite high and it was. If one happens to be younger then it is easy to be surprised by how high the net worth of older people that also picked an extremely successful stock is.

I was genuinely surprised how many people we got 50+ here. This particular set of Tesla investors skews very old compared to similar groups on Reddit for example where the average age is 20's and 30's.

 

[Maarten]

OT for the weekend, in order to make all Tesla owners appreciate their car interior preheating a bit more (while Statoil Equinor moves to extinction?):

(edit: changed Statoil to Equinor, as it's name was changed in 2018 in Norway: it is a state-owned Norwegian multinational)

 

[Wicket]

I was genuinely surprised how many people we got 50+ here. This particular set of Tesla investors skews very old compared to similar groups on Reddit for example where the average age is 20's and 30's.

Agreed much older than Reddit or twitter. However I am not surprised. Elon is infamous for using first principles but on average that approach is more common with the young than the old. The young argue in abstractions and the experienced argue in analogies with details. First principles is high risk and high reward. The average tslaq member is older than the average tsla fan on twitter I wager (restrict to well known accounts and assume Gary is not 420) and not even close. For them the problem was more bad priors (their experience was unhelpful) less than bad reasoning per se. Tesla fans on twitter have good priors but often bad reasoning. Here there is better both although I may quibble a bit about the excessive social enforcement of dogma there is little to be done about it and I welcome the impenetrability for concern trolls.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Pretty impressive for Shanghai if this is in fact the current run rate. Get ready for a blowout 4Q beyond our wildest imagination:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1464646946895773699

... and a blowout 2022 as this would make the annual run rate going into 22 over 1.8M vehicles. Add in the Austin and Berlin ramps based on your level of optimism.

 

[replicant]

I was genuinely surprised how many people we got 50+ here. This particular set of Tesla investors skews very old compared to similar groups on Reddit for example where the average age is 20's and 30's.

Not so surprised, given the political leaning of this forum.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I was genuinely surprised how many people we got 50+ here. This particular set of Tesla investors skews very old compared to similar groups on Reddit for example where the average age is 20's and 30's.

50+ here and there are two things in this world I'm incapable of understanding; options trading and Reddit.

 

[lascavarian]

First principles is high risk and high reward.

Speaking only for myself, this is profoundly incorrect. It is the attraction of shallow weak thinking that has drifted away from first principles thinking and toward wishful thinking that is high risk. First principles thinking is foundational and low risk and minimizes expensive lazy mistakes IMO.

How do others consider first principles thinking? As investors, how do we rate engineering competence when we invest?

 

[CLK350]

So what will Tesla do with Freemont MYs then? If what you say is true, won't the ramping up TX factory Osborne the full capacity CA factory?

It's fun and innocuous/ gratuitous anticipating what Tesla's managers have certainly planned out already - but I'll bite:

1- During TX Austin ramp up (most of 2022) the new MIT Model Y will be a new category, say "Advanced Tech" to give it a placeholder name, sold at a premium vs the standard MIF Fremont Model Y's.

2 - Once Austin is at full capacity (early 2023) and improving, what happens is less clear once Fremont closes its MY lines: either retrofit them for the next gen M3 with dual castings and newest electrical tech, maybe even MCU4 by then, or retrofit them for a new Advanced Tech Model S or X (bringing higher profits per car, considering they would still be battery constrained) or ?.

PS. re the OP's "I fully expect the Austin-built Model Y to have, among other things .. - HEPA filter for bio-defence mode - a la MIC "
IIRC, it is *already* in production at Fremont, has been for a few months already.

 

[CLK350]

That poll is a terrific hubris killer. Here I was, convinced of my exceptional investing talent, only to find I'm exceptionally average. I guess I can take solace in the knowledge that this is an exceptional group of investors.

Yep - what would be more interesting is getting a view of the highest performers (anonymized) in terms of performance (vs HODL) since so many also trade options - something like money weighted rate of return (for a few periods of interest, like 2014 -present or 2019 - present). THAT might humble quite a few.

Then again what's the point of so much navel (mirror) gazing? We're all interested in Tesla as a company and its stock valuation, and fans of Tesla/ Elon.

Also

1/ Regarding the results of the survey, it's not so surprising. Considering most "normally successful" folks must have had at least a 5 figure retirement account, if they understood Tesla and invested at some point ...

2/ Wish the questionnaire included something about when folks a/ started reading this thread regularly and b/joined TMC and started posting or adding feedback. Funny thing is, I know I started investing all in, Jan '19 after figuring out Tesla, researching cars after a long hiatus, joining TMC in Oct '19 but I have no idea when I started reading this TMC thread or even how I came across it in the first place.

 

[Snerruc]

Age to me is the one I was interested in. I expected the average to be quite high and it was. If one happens to be younger then it is easy to be surprised by how high the net worth of older people that also picked an extremely successful stock is.

Higher net worth for older people is more a result of time in the market than anything. If you bought Proctor and Gamble 40 years ago and reinvested the dividends, you would have an enormous amount of money. It’s hard to beat the power of compounding. A lot of us oldsters did Just that.