Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

if you look at his acquisitions and tax sales to pay for same, he still needs to acquire and pay for about 40+%

I don't think that's the case: look at the only times Elon has aquired shares. We know those are days when he exercised his 2012 CEO stock options, and sold some shares just to cover the income taxes.

There have been exactly 6 such events. Elon has only 9 tranches from 2012 that have vested (the 10th tranche depends on Tesla reaching 30% gross margin on an annual basis, which may happen with the 10-Q in Aug 2022).

So there are only 3 more tranches of shares to sell. Elon has not made any discretionary stock sales since the 1st week of Nov. I think he's done with those, and now has more than $5B in cash, even after paying the capital gains taxes (no income tax due on his long held shares). Enough to live comfortably until 2028.

TL;dr

So there's 3 more Thursday's in Dec, that's possibly 3 more days of selling later this month. It should all be in the 105b-1 plan, and no longer TBD. We just aren't privy to the plan (we can deal with that, nearly done at least until Aug 2022 when we might expect 1 more tranche to vest).

Cheers!

 

[H Mak]

No 900's. I called low yesterday above 1,000 - for a year.

There's no easy way to tell you this so here goes. It filled @ $995

 

[CHGolferJim]

That was definitely weird. Why have a hush hush meeting now with investors, so close to quarter end.

And Gary may be saying this just to take credit and say, see I told you so. Who knows

There are laws/regulations on this, neh?

 

[elasalle]

Santa likey the CPI report

Per a CCN article:
in the weeks since the data for tomorrow's inflation report was collected, energy prices have dropped. The price of gas at the pump has already begun to fall nationally, and real pump prices in 20 states are now lower than the 20-year average.

There's been another change, too: Since the data was collected, the Omicron variant has entered the picture.

 

[TheWalkingDad]

The funniest and most ironic result of die casting almost everything will be that Tesla will have panel gaps that will be impossible to beat with stamping… the Q brigade will have to find something else

Very impressed at how nice those gap tolerances are. A bit jealous of this 3 versus my S.

 

[CHGolferJim]

I just received an email from Tesla regarding my MX order, here's the translation, I highlighted the two key points:

We will contact you regarding the timing of your Model X order.
We are in the process of scaling up production, which has delayed the launch for countries outside of North America. We will notify you in your Tesla Account of delivery dates once production of your Model X begins. It is estimated that deliveries outside of North America will start in the second half of 2022.
We will no longer be accepting new orders for Model S and Model X in countries outside of North America. Your Model X will retain the purchase price as of the date you ordered if you do not make any changes to your Vehicle Configuration.
Request a callback with a Tesla Advisor if you want to use your Order Fee for a different model or if you want to cancel your order.
We apologize for the inconvenience.
With kind regards,
The Tesla Team

That sucks for you, when were you expecting?

 

[ZachF]

Why would that push TSLA up? Cash is trash?

With 7% inflation and 15% capital gains, a 10% return only nets you a ~1.5% real return…

If they went to 25% like some are proposing you’d only earn a 0.5% real return on a 10% gain in this environment.

Moral of the story: stick with TSLA

 

[SOULPEDL]

There's no easy way to tell you this so here goes. It filled @ $995

It's off to a rough start, I agree.

 

[wtlloyd]

Is there a CY 2021 time-limit on Mr Musk playing his GetALittle-SellALittle GetALittle-SellALittle Cheap! Cheap! Cheap! GetALot-SellALittleMore?????????

There are not a whole lot more trading days in the year.....

How many get this reference and can hear the MUSIC, man?

 

[22522]

There are laws/regulations on this, neh?

I think there is a law that says that people "in the know" win in the market.
Cathie markets her product as "in the know" but her rules limit her ability to concentrate holdings based on what she knows.

The Baron fund (with the most SpaceX) is an analogous way for people not "In the know" to benefit from this law, as they seem to have no, or higher, limits on concentration based on what they know.

 

[SOULPEDL]

How many get this reference and can hear the MUSIC, man?

Of course, it's Supertramp - Give-a-little-bit.
Or maybe Cheap Trick?

 

[MP3Mike]

There have been exactly 6 such events. Elon has only 9 tranches from 2012 that have vested (the 10th tranche depends on Tesla reaching 30% gross margin on an annual basis, which may happen with the 10-Q in Aug 2022).

So there are only 3 more tranches of shares to sell. Elon has not made any discretionary stock sales since the 1st week of Nov. I think he's done with those, and now has more than $5B in cash, even after paying the capital gains taxes (no income tax due on his long held shares). Enough to live comfortably until 2028.

TL;dr

So there's 3 more Thursday's in Dec, that's possibly 3 more days of selling later this month. It should all be in the 105b-1 plan, and no longer TBD. We just aren't privy to the plan (we can deal with that, nearly done at least until Aug 2022 when we might expect 1 more tranche to vest).

His selling tranches don't match the size of his vesting tranches. He has ~5 more tranches of selling left for his vested 2012 options.

 

[Unpilot]

Getting ready for some rage buys.

 

[mongo]

I don't think that's the case: look at the only times Elon has aquired shares. We know those are days when he exercised his 2012 CEO stock options, and sold some shares just to cover the income taxes.

There have been exactly 6 such events. Elon has only 9 tranches from 2012 that have vested (the 10th tranche depends on Tesla reaching 30% gross margin on an annual basis, which may happen with the 10-Q in Aug 2022).

So there are only 3 more tranches of shares to sell. Elon has not made any discretionary stock sales since the 1st week of Nov. I think he's done with those, and now has more than $5B in cash, even after paying the capital gains taxes (no income tax due on his long held shares). Enough to live comfortably until 2028.

TL;dr

So there's 3 more Thursday's in Dec, that's possibly 3 more days of selling later this month. It should all be in the 105b-1 plan, and no longer TBD. We just aren't privy to the plan (we can deal with that, nearly done at least until Aug 2022 when we might expect 1 more tranche to vest).

Cheers!

The daily 10b5-1 sales are smaller than the tranche award amounts. Based on the pattern so far, it will take 10+ sales to complete the exercise.
Per form 4:

As of the date of this filing, 23,737,050 of the shares subject to this option have vested and 2,637,455 of the shares have not vested.

21.1 M shares vested.
Around 2.14 M executed per event (each less than 2.6 M)
10 events needed.

 

[bkp_duke]

Bear raid incoming!

 

[Mengy]

I wonder if Elon just sold another bunch of shares right after the open? Quite the sudden drop while the rests of the market looks fairly green.

 

[Unpilot]

That turned around quickly.....actually just your normal EKG pattern for TSLA.

 

[ZachF]

Just wait till inflation couples with the declining labor market. (yes yes I know the "official" numbers say we are "adding" jobs - but they conveniently leave out the people leaving the workforce entirely for early retirement, etc.)

Can you say stagflation? Worst possible outcome.

Well, high inflation often leads to stagflation because the math of inflation and capital gains is such that eventually people move to protect their money rather than grow it and “invest” in stupid stuff like gold that doesn’t actually increase productivity.

From 1970 to 1980 productivity growth declined precipitously because of this.

 

[jeewee3000]

All I've learned today and yesterday is @SOULPEDL is the perfect contra-indicator.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

This thing really isn’t rebounding until either Elon gets to 90% done on his selling or until we get Q4 numbers. It’s simply too easy for hedge funds to front fun his sells and too much money sitting on the sidelines waiting for him to get done selling.

We’re probably breaking the 50-day at this point and heading down. The Nov China numbers needed to be a blowout to force the issue but they weren’t (though I have the same thoughts on the China Nov in that a good amount 6-8k vehicles are in transit to farther distance delivery centers in China). Just another 2-3 weeks until this shenanigans are over