Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

 

[ZachF]

Warren's tweet stated that the tax code is rigged to benefit the ultra-wealthy. Do you disagree?

Relative to his wealth accumulation, Elon's paid maybe 1-3% in federal taxes. Obviously a wealth tax on unrealized gains is moronic, but certainly something needs to be done.

Externalities,(conspicuous) consumption, and estates (death) primarily IMHO.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Complains about Warren post.
Makes Warren post.

You are absolutely correct that senators complaining about the tax code are complaining about a job they're supposed to be doing.

In fairness to Warren....that's what she said in the tweet. The tax code needs to be fixed. Pretty straight forward that you shouldn't be able to be the wealthiest single person on the planet, take out loans for billions of dollars to live off of, and pay nearly zero federal tax along the way.

Not sure what it has to do with Elon, since he doesn't make the tax code, but that's how politics works. Appeal to the mob for change by pointing to a "bad guy". Hopefully that aspect goes away soon. Doesn't change the fact the underlying problem is real.

This combined with another down day should make it pretty unbearable here today. Buy some calls, you'll feel better!

And to be fair to any individual Senator, they are 1 out of 100 people working within a horrible political system.

The key point is that using something as collateral should be treated as realizing at least some of the value.

Although, with Tesla shares, there's something of an irony. Tesla doesn't pay dividends, and Musk said they have no plans to issue dividends, which means that the shares currently have no inherent value.

 

[Unpilot]

And to be fair to any individual Senator, they are 1 out of 100 people working within a horrible political system.

The key point is that using something as collateral should be treated as realizing at least some of the value.

Although, with Tesla shares, there's something of an irony. Tesla doesn't pay dividends, and Musk said they have no plans to issue dividends, which means that the shares currently have no inherent value.

I will take any you have in that case.

 

[ZachF]

This price action is puzzling as Tesla's future has never ever looked this good.
A backlog of many, many months (with some trims over one year out), price increases, two new factories, increasing battery supply, Semi & Cybertruck prototypes, etc. etc.
Record profits for 2022 are guaranteed. And this during a time when all other car makers are struggling.

In Q2, despite having sales much less than Ford and GM, Tesla showed it's operating efficiency by delivery Operating Income margin of 11% while Ford delivered 0% and GM 8%.

View attachment 744167

In Q3, not only did Tesla again deliver higher OpInc margins 15% (vs 4% and 6% for Ford and GM, respectively), they delivered more OpInc $$ with $2.0B vs Ford's $1.3B and GM $1.6B.

View attachment 744168

In Q4, I expect Tesla's OpInc margin to increase 17% with Operating Income of $2.8B.

The issue Legacy OEMs face, is that they will need to put new capital to work to establish their EV business meaning additional fixed costs while declining ICE sales will but a strain on the cost of production for these ICE vehicles as output declines potentially leading to stranded assets. I see restructuring charges in the future for Legacy auto.

Will be interesting to see what revenue comes in at in Q4. I think my previous estimates of ~$80b for 2022 are going to be low.

Also I suspect Tesla could soon be making more profit than Ford and GM put together.

 

[Unpilot]

Will be interesting to see what revenue comes in at in Q4. I think my previous estimates of ~$80b for 2022 are going to be low.

Also I suspect Tesla could soon be making more profit than Ford and GM put together.

And wall st. is going to be "surprised" and Cramer is going to flip again.

 

[Krugerrand]

 

[The Accountant]

Will be interesting to see what revenue comes in at in Q4. I think my previous estimates of ~$80b for 2022 are going to be low.

Also I suspect Tesla could soon be making more profit than Ford and GM put together.

2022 is still very much a work in progress but I am currently modeling $86.7B in sales on 1.5m deliveries (plus energy and services):

Note: the CEO award is a question mark for 2022. The 160m is the remainder of the current award program; I am not sure if a new program will be approved by the BoD in 2022 bring more expense to next year.

 

[H Mak]

The days are getting very repetitive. Each morning when I see these pre-market plunges, I pull up my spreadsheet to decide where to pull in a few thousand pounds from in order to buy more $TSLA. Then transfer the money to my broker, set up an order limit, and wait for it to trigger. It's such a simple method for getting rich(er), a robot could do it.

Today's target? $920

 

[Artful Dodger]

$946 in premarket. We'll be green by 9:15. You heard it here first!

Missed it by that much....

Question is, how many stop-losses are set at the 'round' numbers. Ah, it's all good. I already know where this is headed in the medium run, and even brighter looking prospects for the long term.

Today is a Christmas gift from short-sighted shortzes.

Cheers!

 

[S3XY]

This price action is puzzling as Tesla's future has never ever looked this good.
A backlog of many, many months (with some trims over one year out), price increases, two new factories, increasing battery supply, Semi & Cybertruck prototypes, etc. etc.
Record profits for 2022 are guaranteed. And this during a time when all other car makers are struggling.

In Q2, despite having sales much less than Ford and GM, Tesla showed it's operating efficiency by delivery Operating Income margin of 11% while Ford delivered 0% and GM 8%.

View attachment 744167

In Q3, not only did Tesla again deliver higher OpInc margins 15% (vs 4% and 6% for Ford and GM, respectively), they delivered more OpInc $$ with $2.0B vs Ford's $1.3B and GM $1.6B.

View attachment 744168

In Q4, I expect Tesla's OpInc margin to increase 17% with Operating Income of $2.8B.

The issue Legacy OEMs face, is that they will need to put new capital to work to establish their EV business meaning additional fixed costs while declining ICE sales will but a strain on the cost of production for these ICE vehicles as output declines potentially leading to stranded assets. I see restructuring charges in the future for Legacy auto.

So buy?

 

[henchman24]

We are going to see if the market really wants Tesla to fill the gap today. A rejection and close above would be a strong bullish signal. If the market needs to fill the gap, well 900 probably comes today with some sort of overshoot either today or later in the future.

 

[NooB_cat]

Please could one of you experienced folk explain to my simple logical brain why is there always an obsession with gap-filling?
It really feels like an OCD thing more than anything!

Seriously, why is it That important to make sure every dollar is covered by a stock at some point during a trading day. Why does it matter if the stock gaps up or down, really?
This has been really bugging me!

Thanks!

 

[ZachF]

Macros are red today too

 

[Nocturnal]

I have to assume this is just a waiting game for the big players. Nibbling and making money while it creeps downward with a hair trigger ready to buy once that game is over. We were at over $1200 not so long ago after all.

 

[S3XY]

And to be fair to any individual Senator, they are 1 out of 100 people working within a horrible political system.

The key point is that using something as collateral should be treated as realizing at least some of the value.

Although, with Tesla shares, there's something of an irony. Tesla doesn't pay dividends, and Musk said they have no plans to issue dividends, which means that the shares currently have no inherent value.

That's a good point. If you're using collateral to take value out of your holdings it should be treated as income. You are no longer just holding it. You are essentially using it as income to live off of. It would still make the tax percentage paid look miniscule but it would at least close that loophole for paying zero taxes.

 

[Artful Dodger]

why is there always an obsession with gap-filling?
It really feels like an OCD T/A thing more than anything!

FTFY

Cheers!

P.S. all you need to know about technical analysis is that shortzes believe in T/A. It's the reason they're constantly tripping over their own feet: myopia.

 

[elasalle]

sold 400 shares from my pigg(CC)y bank ... in for 12 jan 24 1100 leaps

IV around 63%.

 

[Artful Dodger]

That's a good point. If you're using collateral to take value out of your holdings it should be treated as income. You are no longer just holding it. You are essentially using it as income to live off of. It would still make the tax percentage paid look miniscule but it would at least close that loophole for paying zero taxes.

Yeah, that's called a 'bank-account' tax, not income tax. And it won't fly in America.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

sold 400 shares from my pigg(CC)y bank ... in for 12 jan 24 1100 leaps

IV around 63%.

Ah I'm a bit upset with myself, was watching and thought when it was down to 930 that we would see a quick raid into the low 900's and held off. I was looking at Jan 24 1000 LEAPS