Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

We’re getting a nice Christmas sale here guys… TSLA makes a good for those procrastinators!

 

[Artful Dodger]

however, I just became aware of (had my nose rubbed in the information arguing with a short)
there is an additional set of 12 tranches totaling a bit over 101 million shares, 4x the amount, 2018 to 2028

Never take counsel from the shortzes: every single thing they say is motivated by the effort to get you to sell.

Read the 2018 CEO compensation plan. There's a very short, very understandable write-up in every Quarterly 10-Q filing.

Elon can't sell any of his vested shares from the 2018 Plan for 5 years after he acquires them. The 1st batch vested in June 2020. It'll be multiple years, the shortzes don't mention that.

Also, Elon isn't required to exercise these shares until March 2028, and then he only needs to sell to cover the Income Taxes.

Again, please follow @mongo on this topic: you will not find clearer, more concise commentary on the CEO compensation topic.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Putting a fine point on it I know, but I have not seen any comment from EM that he personally has written a check to the fed gov for taxes this year.

That's not how it works: the 2012 CEO comp plan is very specific. Elon is only allowed to sell shares to pay the Income Taxes owing.

Further, Elon's brokerage is required by law to withhold proceeds from those sales and submit the income taxes payable on an accelerated schedule (no waiting until April 30th).

Sen. Warren is just playing to the crowd. Her base loves the lie that Elon pays no income tax. Don't fall for it.

 

[lascavarian]

Elon will literally pay more taxes this year than the entire state of Vermont.

Won’t whatever EM pays for 2021 have to be adjusted by the number of years covered? All the income for EM happened over years. Apples and apples and all.

 

[st_lopes]

Putting a fine point on it I know, but I have not seen any comment from EM that he personally has written a check to the fed gov for taxes this year.

It is obvious that he is preparing to pay but preparing is not paying. EM will be able to say what he is paying when he makes that payment. What is factual is 2020.

EM has been unusually transparent in many things. I expect he will be forthright in this area as well and it will greatly accrue to his benefit in the end.

Having a discussion of taxes is a good discussion. I did research on a very old property to understand the thinking behind its construction. Many many unusual approaches to taxes have been tried over time. Tax discussions will not end any time soon IMO.

All those share sales under his 10b5-1 plan are effectively already remitted to the government. The broker would sell the shares and immediately make payment under Tesla’s payroll remittance accounts. So, yes, he effectively has already cut a cheque.

And to make a finer point, Elon has NO CONTROL over the EXACT timing of sales under the 10b5-1 plan. When he agreed to the plan, full discretion was given to the broker. All Elon agrees to is a window of time (and no you don’t select specific days of a week, you pick a start and end date) and a minimum price (it may be X% below 30 day VWAP for instance). So all numerologists can give it a rest.

 

[mongo]

That's not how it works: the 2012 CEO comp plan is very specific. Elon is only allowed to sell shares to pay the Income Taxes owing.

Further, Elon's brokerage is required by law to withhold proceeds from those sales and submit the income taxes payable on an accelerated schedule (no waiting until April 30th).

Sen. Warren is just playing to the crowd. Her base loves the lie that Elon pays no income tax. Don't fall for it.

I believe you meant the 2018 plan.

 

[The Accountant]

This price action is puzzling as Tesla's future has never ever looked this good.
A backlog of many, many months (with some trims over one year out), price increases, two new factories, increasing battery supply, Semi & Cybertruck prototypes, etc. etc.
Record profits for 2022 are guaranteed. And this during a time when all other car makers are struggling.

In Q2, despite having sales much less than Ford and GM, Tesla showed it's operating efficiency by delivery Operating Income margin of 11% while Ford delivered 0% and GM 8%.

In Q3, not only did Tesla again deliver higher OpInc margins 15% (vs 4% and 6% for Ford and GM, respectively), they delivered more OpInc $$ with $2.0B vs Ford's $1.3B and GM $1.6B.

In Q4, I expect Tesla's OpInc margin to increase 17% with Operating Income of $2.8B.

The issue Legacy OEMs face, is that they will need to put new capital to work to establish their EV business meaning additional fixed costs while declining ICE sales will but a strain on the cost of production for these ICE vehicles as output declines potentially leading to stranded assets. I see restructuring charges in the future for Legacy auto.

 

[lascavarian]

That's not how it works: the 2012 CEO comp plan is very specific. Elon is only allowed to sell shares to pay the Income Taxes owing.

Further, Elon's brokerage is required by law to withhold proceeds from those sales and submit the income taxes payable on an accelerated schedule (no waiting until April 30th).

Sen. Warren is just playing to the crowd. Her base loves the lie that Elon pays no income tax. Don't fall for it.

Good comment. So has the accelerated schedule paid? That would be a helpful fact.

 

[Unpilot]

Man, I sure wish I had some dry powder ...this is a target rich environment!

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[jhm]

"The problem is compounded by a survey by Cox Automotive showing that 69% of those considering an electric vehicle don't even know that GM has an EV offering."
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They do?

 

[dmvevguy]

I've been a buyer these past few weeks. Is anyone concerned with the ramp on Texas GF and Berlin GF? Elon always said getting new factories up and running with ramping process, especially new vehicles (Cybertruck) will always be challenging.

When will TX officially open up and start production? When will Berlin open up?

I'm freeing up other cash in case we have a lot more dips...I was hoping 1000 would be a new floor, so this is a great post Black Friday/early Xmas gift to us longs!

 

[redan]

For what it's worth, TSLA price target upgrade by Daiwa Capital Markets. From $860 to $1050:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1470717706513305600

 

[ZachF]

Won’t whatever EM pays for 2021 have to be adjusted by the number of years covered? All the income for EM happened over years. Apples and apples and all.

~90% of the capital gains he’s paying taxes on occurred in the last 2 years.

It was only two years ago remember we celebrated TSLA passing $420, now that share would be five shares worth almost $1k each.

 

[UncaNed]

I am sincerely hoping that Ms Warren's misrepresentation of Elon's tax status was enough motivation for Elon to forgo the selling of any more shares.........and simply gift the remaining 31% of his shares he intended to sell to his Texas Institute of Technology & Science project. The outcome of such a move would be 4D chess.......................he would call much negative attention to those public office holders who misrepresented his tax status, he would gift shares that could increase in value over time instead of money which would lose money over time as compared to the holding of TSLA shares, and he would be the Big Short on Wall Street - by shorting Wall Street about 31% of the shares they expected, which would put Hedge Funds & MM's in a panic as they would be forced to quickly cover the positions they took to drive TSLA down to today's close. And the ultimate irony would be that Ms Warren, Mr Sanders, and Robert Reich would have to watch TSLA share price - and Elon's net worth - squeeze even higher as a result of their attacks on him, all while he created a path for an entirely new education curriculum that would chart a new path for lowering student debt faster and further than Ms Warren, Mr Sanders, and Robert Reich ever managed to do despite that goal being one of their favorite battle cries

I agree, I want to be able to contribute too, which is why I SO wish Elon would create the Texas Institute of Technology & Science project!! How can we convince him to make it so?

 

[ZachF]

I've been a buyer these past few weeks. Is anyone concerned with the ramp on Texas GF and Berlin GF? Elon always said getting new factories up and running with ramping process, especially new vehicles (Cybertruck) will always be challenging.

When will TX officially open up and start production? When will Berlin open up?

I'm freeing up other cash in case we have a lot more dips...I was hoping 1000 would be a new floor, so this is a great post Black Friday/early Xmas gift to us longs!

Other than the ever-present German bureaucratic sclerosis, not really. They both seem like they are in the beginning of the process.

 

[winfield100]

Elon can do whatever he wants with currently ownered share; however, shares from the 2018 CEO Performance Award must be held for 5 years post exercise (other than sales to cover taxes due to exercise).

@mongo
so Elon should go from (reading SEC form numbers) roughly 172 million shares to roughly 270+ million shares,
(less tax sales)(and pay $billions in taxes), ending up with a higher% of company ?
(what will the tax nick be on $100 billion from 101 million shares acquired,
(will they be california or texas tax rates?)
(the numbers get rougher & vaguer at that altitude)

there really is a financial tsunami approaching it seems, what an exhilarating time to be alive

 

[Favguy]

That's not how it works: the 2012 CEO comp plan is very specific. Elon is only allowed to sell shares to pay the Income Taxes owing.

Further, Elon's brokerage is required by law to withhold proceeds from those sales and submit the income taxes payable on an accelerated schedule (no waiting until April 30th).

Sen. Warren is just playing to the crowd. Her base loves the lie that Elon pays no income tax. Don't fall for it.

Although from the UK, I'm relatively politically aligned with progressive Democrats. Warren certainly isn't playing to me! It's sad to see her, Bernie and others I respect being so wrong on this issue

 

[lascavarian]

The broker would sell the shares and immediately make payment under Tesla’s payroll remittance accounts. So, yes, he effectively has already cut a cheque.

Great info. So the seller would know immediately how much tax was paid on their payroll statement or something like that. It is helpful to know it is immediate and not weekly or monthly.

 

[winfield100]

Never take counsel from the shortzes: every single thing they say is motivated by the effort to get you to sell.

Read the 2018 CEO compensation plan. There's a very short, very understandable write-up in every Quarterly 10-Q filing.

Elon can't sell any of his vested shares from the 2018 Plan for 5 years after he acquires them. The 1st batch vested in June 2020. It'll be multiple years, the shortzes don't mention that.

Also, Elon isn't required to exercise these shares until March 2028, and then he only needs to sell to cover the Income Taxes.

Again, please follow @mongo on this topic: you will not find clearer, more concise commentary on the CEO compensation topic.

Cheers!

@Artful Dodger @mongo
thank you both, i, though ancient, am but a beginner and this is a lot of fun.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Sen. Warren is just playing to the crowd. Her base loves the lie that Elon pays no income tax. Don't fall for it.

Warren's tweet stated that the tax code is rigged to benefit the ultra-wealthy. Do you disagree?

Relative to his wealth accumulation, Elon's paid maybe 1-3% in federal taxes. Obviously a wealth tax on unrealized gains is moronic, but certainly something needs to be done.