Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chunky Jr.]

I think it is possible that Cathy Wood can be both:
1) very savvy about Tesla and their business
2) a poor fund manager

these two are not mutually exclusive. I think she got a lot of credit (deservedly so) for 1, but that doesn't translate into being a good fund manager.

 

[Nocturnal]

Watching today (I ran out of dry powder months ago)...

It appears to me that the FUD aimed at Tesla and ARK has kicked up a few notches since the day started.
As we approach maximum FUD, remember the value of your shares in this wonderful Tesla machine...

I feel it too. I had an argument with myself this AM along these lines and had to break down my bull case to feel better. The FUD now is much more subtle. When it was Tesla vs people claiming that Elon steals copper it was easy to laugh at and ignore. Couple that with the macro environment and weak hands are definitely likely to panic.

I will feel immeasurably more secure once these darn factories are open and we see promised products on the market.

 

[canoemore]

bounce bounce bounce at $930

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Generally there is also a springtime dip after the Q4 results, and indeed the factory openings won't produce large numbers until H2 2022.

If people make assumptions off of past TSLA performance, I feel they're going to miss out.

A) The seasonality of Tesla's business isn't happening next year. The demand for Tesla's insures everything will be sold in Q1/Q2
B) Berlin/Austin might have limited impact on Q1, but Shanghai is still expanding and will continue to do so in Q1/Q2
C) Tesla is just as much about earnings story now as it is a growth story. After Q4 earnings, Tesla's Forward P/E will be quite a bit under 100.

 

[wooter]

If people make assumptions off of past TSLA performance, I feel they're going to miss out.

A) The seasonality of Tesla's business isn't happening next year. Demand insures everything will be sold in Q1/Q2
B) Berlin/Austin might have limited impact on Q1, but Shanghai is still expanding and will continue to do so in Q1/Q2
C) Tesla is just as much about earnings story now as it is a growth story. After Q4 earnings, Tesla's Forward P/E will be quite a bit under 100.

Except, $TSLA stock performance has only a vague relation to its delivery numbers. I mean, it's not bad sales numbers or even Elon's selling that is causing this pullback, and Q results almost never cause a rally on the stock.

So best thing to do is to look back and see if there are any other patterns, and in the case of springtime dip it might be an accident, or for real.

I mean, I'm not selling, but the next blowout numbers after Q4 2021 won't really happen before Q3 2022.

But imagine if I was wrong

 

[FS_FRA]

I wonder what Leo Koguan is up to these days...

Tweet @ him - he's quite active and you might be surprised with an answer...

 

[woodisgood]

I wonder what Leo Koguan is up to these days...

He did tweet the other day with his recommendation that Tesla should buy 25% of Starlink and put Starlink antennas in Cybertrucks to make the ultimate adventure/rescue vehicle.

 

[Krugerrand]

I feel it too. I had an argument with myself this AM along these lines and had to break down my bull case to feel better. The FUD now is much more subtle. When it was Tesla vs people claiming that Elon steals copper it was easy to laugh at and ignore. Couple that with the macro environment and weak hands are definitely likely to panic.

I will feel immeasurably more secure once these darn factories are open and we see promised products on the market.

Will you, though? Feel better. Because I don’t think you will. There’s always going to be something else that gets you down until you separate yourself from the influences that see you feeling insecure right now.

I do not care what anyone else says, reports, plops down on social media, does or does not do. For real. I own the car. I’ve studied the man and his companies. I know what that all means. Don’t you? If, yes, then why do you allow all the noise to get you down? That doesn’t make any sense. Don’t you believe in yourself?

I say, bring it. Make it rain. Do your worst liars, cheats, thieves and bandits. Your time is quickly running out and I will dance on your graves.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Looks like market over shot too much to the liking of MM for triple witching for tomorrow. MM's got to work a day early.
If it goes below 900, I'll dip into my pigg(CC)y bank again for shares to leaps.

cheers!!

I use technicals to an extent. In my view, 900 was established as a ceiling one year ago. When the share price burst through that ceiling recently, 900 then became a floor. I'm interested in buying at these levels but if it falls below 900 I'm hands off until I see the share price stabilize or reach price I just can't resist.

 

[Paul_SF]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1471546572836122625

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Except, $TSLA stock performance has only a vague relation to its delivery numbers. I mean, it's not bad sales numbers or even Elon's selling that is causing this pullback, and Q results almost never cause a rally on the stock.

So best thing to do is to look back and see if there are any other patterns, and in the case of springtime dip it might be an accident, or for real.

I mean, I'm not selling, but the next blowout numbers after Q4 2021 won't really happen before Q3 2022.

But imagine if I was wrong

When you say "even Elon's selling that is causing this pullback" I then don't know if I should take anything you say seriously This entire sell off is Elon selling induced and how anyone could say otherwise is mindboggling.

But again, your post is looking at the past and fundamentally ignoring the dynamics at play right now.

TSLA stock performance didn't correlate to delivery numbers in the past because the scale wasn't enough to force the issue. Tesla could post great earnings, but the earnings were still too small on scale to make a difference. Tesla didn't even have a P/E in 2020 and the P/E of the stock was in the 1200's earlier this year.

Now though, Tesla's earnings are at a scale where they will force the issue. If you think Tesla's forward P/E will drop to anywhere close to 50 in 2022, then you're going to be amazingly wrong. You should also probably go back through all of Tesla's 2021 earnings and see the correlation of revenue growth to earnings growth and much Tesla increases earnings for every dollar of new revenue.

Even a 20-30k increase in deliveries quarter over quarter does wonders for Tesla's earnings and will continue to drive Tesla's P/E and Forward P/E down rapidly.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

If people make assumptions off of past TSLA performance, I feel they're going to miss out.

A) The seasonality of Tesla's business isn't happening next year. The demand for Tesla's insures everything will be sold in Q1/Q2
B) Berlin/Austin might have limited impact on Q1, but Shanghai is still expanding and will continue to do so in Q1/Q2
C) Tesla is just as much about earnings story now as it is a growth story. After Q4 earnings, Tesla's Forward P/E will be quite a bit under 100.

Well said, but I still think TSLA will be flat to down this spring/summer. I'd like to see another surge before that but I'm starting to think Elon's selling is going to thwart a nice Santa Clause rally and may even put a damper on a bounce from Q4 results.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I wonder what Leo Koguan is up to these days...

Quantum infinity drive engine™, obviously... (hope he didn't buy Options on margin)

Cheers!

 

[wooter]

Oh no. Let the split speculation begin

I thought he was just mocking us. Fairly so.

 

[Radish11]

I’m gonna say 285k Q3 deliveries

 

[Nocturnal]

Will you, though? Feel better. Because I don’t think you will. There’s always going to be something else that gets you down until you separate yourself from the influences that see you feeling insecure right now.

I do not care what anyone else says, reports, plops down on social media, does or does not do. For real. I own the car. I’ve studied the man and his companies. I know what that all means. Don’t you? If, yes, then why do you allow all the noise to get you down? That doesn’t make any sense. Don’t you believe in yourself?

I say, bring it. Make it rain. Do your worst liars, cheats, thieves and bandits. Your time is quickly running out and I will dance on your graves.

We all process information differently, shaded by our personality, life situation, experiences etc. If I never questioned my decisions I'd be doing myself a diservice.

 

[Radish11]

Someone has to explain to me like I am 5 years old how someone selling 2% of all the TSLA shares available in the world can make the stock plunge more than 30% in less than 1 month. Someone has to explain to me like I am 5 to reprogram the markets algorithm to make it more efficient so that if someone sells 10% of his shares if he holds 20% of the company to drop the stock price only of 2%. I have not found an answer to my question on howthingswork.tsla

(I understand there are front runners and other funds selling)

More sellers than buyers means price goes down

 

[Artful Dodger]

Will you, though? Feel better. Because I don’t think you will. There’s always going to be something else that gets you down until you separate yourself from the influences that see you feeling insecure right now.

 

[Paracelsus]

 

[Radish11]

Toyota made an oddly prescient boast, to be 1% of the market.
taken at face value they are predicting their demise

https://twitter.com/x/status/1471081001594109953

Interesting so the 3.5m includes hybrids? Only 1m of that is pure battery electric?