Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

My parents have a Model Y being delivered next week. The delivery specialist said it was coming from Texas. Is it possibly one the first Model Y’s manufactured at the new factory? Why else would it be coming from Texas if they can’t even sell cars there?

 

[Unpilot]

I can think of no better way to start my Sunday morning than to sit here and drink my coffee and read these forums.

The depth of information and the quality of the conversations is top-notch.
I thought about calling out some of the folks I think are the best but thought better of that as I am sure I would miss too many.

So here is too you TMC I am happy to be part of you.

 

[ZeApelido]

This is interesting because in this SEC generated graph the period of Nov '18 -> Jan '19 there is a gap in the data (neither price nor FTD shares appear).

I observed the absence of any FTD's of TSLA at the time in the SEC reported data sets (because there didn't seem to be a way to get SEC generated graphs back then). It was so surprising compared to previous years that I wrote some software to scan the histories of all comparable volume stocks (~6000 companies with volume from 10 times less than TSLA up to any larger volume) to see if other actively traded stocks ever had similar long periods of no FTDs. It turned out that no other heavily traded stock ever had even 1/5 as long a period of no FTD reports. I actually wrote to the SEC about it because it seemed like it couldn't be true. They never responded to me. I'm guessing that this auto-generated graph queries the same data set, and when FTDs are (allegedly) zero, there is no entry and therefore also no price, So this creates a gap on the graph.

You can see for yourself that no other symbols have this gap behavior by choosing any (active volume) symbol and there will be no big gaps. e.g.
https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=AAPL has no gap in the Nov '18 -> Jan '19 time frame or any other time frame.

One thing you will see is that large spikes in FTDs are common with many other stocks, not just TSLA. But no others ever have a reporting gap.

So there is still the big question about what happened during November 2018 through January 2019 that magically caused TSLA to have no FTDs at all or, more likely, none were reported even though they existed. Did someone at the NSCC tweak the code that generates the report in order to hide something going on with TSLA and made a mistake that accidentally set it to zero?

edit: fixed messed up link.

More useful investigative work than the entire Numerology thread.

 

[bkp_duke]

....Political thread deleted....

Will probably push anyone that was sitting on the fence for the EV tax credit to take delivery of their Tesla to start scheduling delivery ASAP.

IMO Good for Tesla, not good for everyone else.

 

[Tommy O]

My parents have a Model Y being delivered next week. The delivery specialist said it was coming from Texas. Is it possibly one the first Model Y’s manufactured at the new factory? Why else would it be coming from Texas if they can’t even sell cars there?

One of our model 3s was delivered from Texas a couple years ago. It’s been used as a hub in the past. More recently, our Teslas have been coming from Georgia.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla has years of safe driving history with me; I don't know what more I can do.

It's not you. Tesla just isn't admitting more beta testers at the moment. They are getting all the data they need, and the current bottleneck is compute. They need DOJO, that will allow them to process more data, and only then will they NEED more data. My advice is to just drive safe, and bide your time. It will come.

Cheers!

 

[dww12]

Removed post

GM already stopped making the Bolt to make a few token Hummers. How close is Ford to maxing out the $7500 credit and making excuses for slowing EV production? It’s going to be Tesla supercharger only now.

 

[Knightshade]

GM already stopped making the Bolt to make a few token Hummers. How close is Ford to maxing out the $7500 credit and making excuses for slowing EV production? It’s going to be Tesla supercharger only now.

Given the majority of Mach Es are going to the EU, Ford still has probably at least another year before they need to worry about it

 

[Snerruc]

I drove my June-2020-built Y with FSD, Premium Connectivity and every form of data sharing activated to Minnesota from Arizona two weeks ago. Somehow, after leaving Arizona, my Safety Score jumped to 99 from 98. So for two weeks I put on approximately 1500 miles with a 99 Safety Score, excitedly waiting for my FSD Beta upgrade. Never got it.

Driving across rural southeastern Colorado early one morning, with almost no one on the road, I plugged into the Trinidad, CO, supercharger, and found my score dropped to 98. I'm heavily dinged on "Unsafe Following," which currently stands at 7.3%. Since activating Safety Score I give people soooo much room in front it's laughable, I slow waaay down when people pass and move in front of me it's obnoxious, and, in its own way, I feel more dangerous/risky the way I drive trying to maintain my 98 score. My "Forced Autopilot Disengagements" and "Forward Collision Warnings" are both zero, "Hard Braking" 0.7%, "Aggressive Turning" 0.1%.

I don't know if Tesla geo-locks FSD Beta or what, but something is amiss, at least with my car or account. I've bought two brand new Teslas, both with FSD, so have spent $16k in the last 3 years on FSD alone. I've never been in an accident of any kind, not even a minor one. Tesla has years of safe driving history with me; I don't know what more I can do.

I dropped out of the FSD program because of this issue and being dinged because I have to park within 12inches of the rear wall of my garage.

 

[mltv]

I drove my June-2020-built Y with FSD, Premium Connectivity and every form of data sharing activated to Minnesota from Arizona two weeks ago. Somehow, after leaving Arizona, my Safety Score jumped to 99 from 98. So for two weeks I put on approximately 1500 miles with a 99 Safety Score, excitedly waiting for my FSD Beta upgrade. Never got it.

Driving across rural southeastern Colorado early one morning, with almost no one on the road, I plugged into the Trinidad, CO, supercharger, and found my score dropped to 98. I'm heavily dinged on "Unsafe Following," which currently stands at 7.3%. Since activating Safety Score I give people soooo much room in front it's laughable, I slow waaay down when people pass and move in front of me it's obnoxious, and, in its own way, I feel more dangerous/risky the way I drive trying to maintain my 98 score. My "Forced Autopilot Disengagements" and "Forward Collision Warnings" are both zero, "Hard Braking" 0.7%, "Aggressive Turning" 0.1%.

I don't know if Tesla geo-locks FSD Beta or what, but something is amiss, at least with my car or account. I've bought two brand new Teslas, both with FSD, so have spent $16k in the last 3 years on FSD alone. I've never been in an accident of any kind, not even a minor one. Tesla has years of safe driving history with me; I don't know what more I can do.

When I was farming Safety Score, I come to a conclusion that any car change to my lane causes a unsafe following. Giving people so much room is a given, and I had to have my finger on the autopilot tigger. Anticipate and activate autopilot when I feel a car is about to move to my lane. I was pretty frustrated those 4 weeks.

 

[JRP3]

Is there any advantage at all to burning rubber?

Drifting is fun.

 

[Fred42]

Family photo! Another Q4 contribution. Picked up the MY last month and replaced my M3 w the red one yesterday. The MY still feels more substantial and special compared to the M3. Just feels so much more solid. It’ll be at another level with front and rear castings in Austin. The SC was extremely busy with numerous deliveries scheduled. Saw number of Plaids on the lot too. Looking good for blowout Q4. TSLA is executing well. This SP sale is an absolute Xmas giveaway. I am thinking I should pick up more chairs before Elon is done selling. Will use the omicron fears/macro changes to my advantage next week. Pfizer ceo apparently reported that it’ll be an endemic by end of next year.

Plaids are still available for walk-in purchase in the NE, as someone reported a few days ago.

Your pic illustrates the higher seat height and greater room of the Y vs. the 3. I wish the NYPD had ordered 250 Y's instead of 3's, as I suspect they would be happier with them. A Fremont PD complaint about their S was that it was difficult to get in and out. Positive NYPD experience might lead to lots of orders for PD use.

 

[Nolimits]

Plaids are still available for walk-in purchase in the NE, as someone reported a few days ago.

Your pic illustrates the higher seat height and greater room of the Y vs. the 3. I wish the NYPD had ordered 250 Y's instead of 3's, as I suspect they would be happier with them. A Fremont PD complaint about their S was that it was difficult to get in and out. Positive NYPD experience might lead to lots of orders for PD use.

Agreed! The Y is much better to live with. Let alone with all the police equipment. I also thought that Tesla should really make a deal w the police departments to install superchargers /destination chargers at each precinct. That will make the transition much easier. I’ve thinking the same for my hospital since our doctors lots are filled w them now.

 

[winfield100]

This is interesting because in this SEC generated graph the period of Nov '18 -> Jan '19 there is a gap in the data (neither price nor FTD shares appear).

I observed the absence of any FTD's of TSLA at the time in the SEC reported data sets (because there didn't seem to be a way to get SEC generated graphs back then). It was so surprising compared to previous years that I wrote some software to scan the histories of all comparable volume stocks (~6000 companies with volume from 10 times less than TSLA up to any larger volume) to see if other actively traded stocks ever had similar long periods of no FTDs. It turned out that no other heavily traded stock ever had even 1/5 as long a period of no FTD reports. I actually wrote to the SEC about it because it seemed like it couldn't be true. They never responded to me. I'm guessing that this auto-generated graph queries the same data set, and when FTDs are (allegedly) zero, there is no entry and therefore also no price, So this creates a gap on the graph.

You can see for yourself that no other symbols have this gap behavior by choosing any (active volume) symbol and there will be no big gaps. e.g.
https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=AAPL has no gap in the Nov '18 -> Jan '19 time frame or any other time frame.

One thing you will see is that large spikes in FTDs are common with many other stocks, not just TSLA. But no others ever have a reporting gap.

So there is still the big question about what happened during November 2018 through January 2019 that magically caused TSLA to have no FTDs at all or, more likely, none were reported even though they existed. Did someone at the NSCC tweak the code that generates the report in order to hide something going on with TSLA and made a mistake that accidentally set it to zero?

edit: fixed messed up link.

@hacer @Artful Dodger
here are the compressed, zipped text files of last 1/2 Oct 2018. November 2018, December 2018 and January 2019
note TSLA in Oct and last 1/2 of Jan
TMC chokes on big files so i had to send individuals
naming convention year month a first half, b 2nd half

 

[advocate8]

An EV credit may pass in a different bill as GM has plenty of clout with big donors and I suspect they can get to Manchin.
However you are correct in that right now anyone sitting on the fence due to the credit will go for a delivery.

Part of the equation has to be that West Virginia has a Toyota ICE engine and transmission plant. It is hard to imagine this being good for Tesla in any way. Tesla and GM are the only EV makers cut out of the current $7,500 tax credit. So other than GM Tesla’s competition... well, it isn’t quite competition yet, but it will be one day a couple years from now, is all getting the credit and will continue to until each hits the production cap.
So we taxpayers are propping Hyundai and VW and Porsche and Audi and Jaguar rather than innovative, made-in-American Tesla.

 

[Skryll]

When I was farming Safety Score, I come to a conclusion that any car change to my lane causes a unsafe following. Giving people so much room is a given, and I had to have my finger on the autopilot tigger. Anticipate and activate autopilot when I feel a car is about to move to my lane. I was pretty frustrated those 4 weeks.

This is more of a controlling a complex and somewhat unpredictable system exercise than a safe driving exercise.

What helped me was when teslajoy pointed out that she did not get any unsafe following if she made sure to enter navigate on autopilot on the ramp before hitting 50mph. I was able to keep a perfect 100 score all the way to the autocross event

 

[SN_8]

I dropped out of the FSD program because of this issue and being dinged because I have to park within 12inches of the rear wall of my garage.

Mea culpa for this ot post, but need to correct this. (Insert xkcd about 'someone being wrong on the internet' here).

Safety scores are not impacted by the low speed obstacle warnings that you get when parking. I park within 12 inches of my wall, hear those warning dings every time when parking without exception, and still ended up with a 99.

It might have been something other than this impacting your score.

 

[ABC2D]

Madoff actually got away with it, from what i read he was the sacrificial lamb for the family

I'm not sure about all of their family getting away with it - couple of months ago Peter applied for an entry sales position in one of Tesla locations, got rejected, obviously.
Interesting to see someone applying for an entry sales position while listing "Vice Chairman of National Association of Security Dealers Board of Governors", Nasdaq, Nasdaq Europe, Security Industry and financial market association, national stock exchange, NYSE broker dealer in their accomplishments and work history

 

[Ohmster]

Should have named her Tess. Worth a nudge in SP.

Baby driver: Philadelphia woman gives birth in front seat of Tesla on autopilot — Guardian US

Yiran Sherry’s waters broke while the family was stuck in traffic, leading to what is believed to be the world’s first ‘Tesla baby’

apple.news

 

[VValleyEV]

When I was farming Safety Score, I come to a conclusion that any car change to my lane causes a unsafe following. Giving people so much room is a given, and I had to have my finger on the autopilot tigger. Anticipate and activate autopilot when I feel a car is about to move to my lane. I was pretty frustrated those 4 weeks.

Technique that worked well for me: drive on cruise control but not AP. You still get credit for the drive, but if someone changes into your lane it is the cruise control that brakes to move back, and you don’t get dinged. Trick is to keep from hitting the brake yourself, instead trusting the cruise to do the job.

First car to cut in into my lane so close and at such a lower speed that I hit the brake manually without trusting the cruise, earning me either a excessive braking or close following, or both, I forget, was … a Tesla Model Y.