Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Well there's the Mid-BB at 10:15 a.m. ET so now its GAME ON!

... and this game is called "How long can a single laughably wrong tweet from China hold this tiger down?"

Cheers!

 

[Nocturnal]

Yes. Every time I'm in North-America I'm in this bizarro land where 'beer' costs $10 a can and you can't have it open in the car or even in a park. Or you can only buy them at designated licensed monopolies (depending on state/province), and not just walk in a supermarket or fuel station shop.

Belgium did make beer sales through unattended vending machines illegal though, so there's that. But I remember you could roll up at night and buy beer at these vending machines without showing ID

Anyway, back to our regular programming of watching the stock ticker (up to 1027 pre-market) and discussing if/when Elon's done selling.

Visit Missouri next time. It's the wild west there. A driver can't drink, but passengers can chug liquor while shooting off fireworks and AR-15s.

On one of my first trips to Europe I "snuck" a bottle of wine onto a train from Spain to France. I was quietly opening it when I remembered that I was in a place with fewer puritans. Guys in the car up from me were very deep into a cooler of beer. lol

 

[Opus BC fan]

It is almost as if, suddenly, there were slightly fewer shares available to buy...

 

[kanweg]

Meanwhile in the Netherlands

Total car sales in December (until 21 December) : 15162

Of which are BEV: 6962 (almost 46%! :-D)

Of which the top ranking BEVs are

model Y: 518

ID4: 508

Niro: 470

EV6: 451

Model 3: 449.


There will be a change of benefit in kind per January, so these numbers are not sustainable. Tesla hasn’t been doing great this year, but December could be noice. BAF.

 

[Artful Dodger]

... this game is called "How long can a single laughably wrong tweet from China hold this tiger down?"

... and the answer is "not too long, apparently".

Cheers!

 

[thesmokingman]

https://twitter.com/DKurac
https://twitter.com/DKurac
This seems wrong to me but might explain the drop in premarket?

Yea, that's terrible advice.

 

[jw934]

Overbuying.

Not overbuying, but instead de-risk from Just-In-Time process that failed in 2020-2021, assuming Farley is speaking not just for Ford, but all industries that uses semiconductors.

Ford CEO Farley said in the interview:
We manage our supply chain just-in-time and when you look at the best in the world, logistic companies for these new electronic components like Cisco and others, they manage their electronic components differently, not just semis, but memory chips, cameras. The way we have to do that we can't run just-in-time; we need to run buffer-stocks, we have to have off-the-shelf engineering backups for semiconductors that are constrainted when we single source. It is just a whole different way of managing your supply chain. Now we are a technology company, we have to learn from them.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Elon’s last form 4 was interesting. Normally he starts with a zero share balance and the option exercise gives him a starting balance of about 2 million shares. It looks like the on the 21st he left a balance of 1154864 shares in the brokerage account and didn’t transfer them to the trust. I’m guessing this has something to do with finishing up the sale.

 

[Tommy O]

Not overbuying, but instead de-risk from Just-In-Time process that failed in 2020-2021, assuming Farley is speaking not just for Ford, but all industries that uses semiconductors.

Hoarding would have been a better word for me to use.

A few months ago we had trouble finding a particular chip that we couldn’t substitute with any alternatives. We asked around and found plenty of supply, but at 20x cost. We kept looking and a week or so later we found what we needed for ~1.5x cost, if I remember correctly.

As far as I can tell, there’s no reason this chip should have been in short supply. Feels like middlemen are hoarding to create artificial scarcity. At some point they’ll have to lower prices and the supply crunch will all be over.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Well there's the Mid-BB at 10:15 a.m. ET so now its GAME ON!

View attachment 747391

... and this game is called "How long can a single laughably wrong tweet from China hold this tiger down?"

Cheers!

I can’t believe that guy actually posted that tweet. It’s virtually impossible for those numbers to be correct. It’s like use some common sense

 

[thesmokingman]

Not overbuying, but instead de-risk from Just-In-Time process that failed in 2020-2021, assuming Farley is speaking not just for Ford, but all industries that uses semiconductors.

Ford CEO Farley said in the interview:
We manage our supply chain just-in-time and when you look at the best in the world, logistic companies for these new electronic components like Cisco and others, they manage their electronic components differently, not just semis, but memory chips, cameras. The way we have to do that we can't run just-in-time; we need to run buffer-stocks, we have to have off-the-shelf engineering backups for semiconductors that are constrainted when we single source. It is just a whole different way of managing your supply chain. Now we are a technology company, we have to learn from them.

Global Foundries... he lost me at GF. They are way way behind. It's the albatross that AMD could not get rid of.

 

[Dig deeper]

Hoarding would have been a better word for me to use.

A few months ago we had trouble finding a particular chip that we couldn’t substitute with any alternatives. We asked around and found plenty of supply, but at 20x cost. We kept looking and a week or so later we found what we needed for ~1.5x cost, if I remember correctly.

As far as I can tell, there’s no reason this chip should have been in short supply. Feels like middlemen are hoarding to create artificial scarcity. At some point they’ll have to lower prices and the supply crunch will all be over.

These are exactly the dynamics that Cathie Wood alluded to during her "in the know" podcast a couple months back. Double or triple ordering to front run prices by companies, at the same time consumers pulling forward a lot of demand for goods when services became unavailable due to distancing measures.

 

[mongo]

Elon’s last form 4 was interesting. Normally he starts with a zero share balance and the option exercise gives him a starting balance of about 2 million shares. It looks like the on the 21st he left a balance of 1154864 shares in the brokerage account and didn’t transfer them to the trust. I’m guessing this has something to do with finishing up the sale.

Likely just not transfered to the trust yet. Same thing occured in November, see the 11/16 F4 SEC FORM 4
Running total at the bottom of recent Form 4 confirms 1,554,176 vested options left.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I can’t believe that guy actually posted that tweet. It’s virtually impossible for those numbers to be correct. It’s like use some common sense

Well, ol' Wall St. has figured out the con now: 50-day Moving Avg unlocked!

Cheers!

 

[Krugerrand]

These are exactly the dynamics that Cathie Wood alluded to during her "in the know" podcast a couple months back. Double or triple ordering to front run prices by companies, at the same time consumers pulling forward a lot of demand for goods when services became unavailable due to distancing measures.

It’s just toilet paper hoarding. This is what people do when they’re scared. Companies are just a group of people.

 

[Dig deeper]

It’s just toilet paper hoarding. This is what people do when they’re scared. Companies are just a group of people.

I was literally going to channel my inner @Krugerrand and say it just like that

I think we would both agree that they (bean counting, unimaginative empty suits) are much more sophisticated than a random group of ppl. As such there is no way they have this blow up in their face with a deflationary spiral. /S

 

[jbcarioca]

GM actually has a good idea, no notion if they can actually deliver. Still, this approach is very logical.

GM to provide EV components across industries

Use cases for GM's EV component sets span from the Chevrolet Performance and Aftermarket division to GM Powered Solutions and even airport tractor equipment.

www.autonews.com

If this succeeds it will help transform supply chains to become multi-industry. In some ways that has happened for decades.
I'm rather puzzled: GM actually having a good idea!

 

[Nocturnal]

GM actually has a good idea, no notion if they can actually deliver. Still, this approach is very logical.

GM to provide EV components across industries

Use cases for GM's EV component sets span from the Chevrolet Performance and Aftermarket division to GM Powered Solutions and even airport tractor equipment.

www.autonews.com

If this succeeds it will help transform supply chains to become multi-industry. In some ways that has happened for decades.
I'm rather puzzled: GM actually having a good idea!

On the other hand, it also tells us that they will have extra parts laying around that they don't need for cars. Like Ford selling EV motors.

 

[JRP3]

Fire at Exon refinery, we can't get off fossil fuels fast enough
Several people injured after fire at Exxon oil refinery in Texas

 

[MABMAB]

Would the mods please banish (aka flush) the Musk share sales discussions to the NUMBerology thread?