Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Not in disagreement about the timeline for FSD.
That's a disappointing miss on your vision of how a Robotaxi vehicle would operate. It will be purpose-built, not just a bunch of model 3's thrown out on the street. They will be designed to be easily cleanable and sanitized, but the image of routine vomiting and pooping in the vehicle - there will be interior cameras, whoever hails the vehicle using the app will be responsible for the riders within. Urban RTs will be kept in a hive building, returning for re-charge and any other necessary duties performed by service staff. There is NO interaction between riders and service employees, there is NO comparison with current rental car practices and what is coming. It's like saying automobiles are no good because you can't fit a saddle to them.
I appreciate your enthusiasm for the Robotaxi model. I share it. But all I can say is go ask an Uber driver about cleaning- that is with someone in the car with the offender. I don't care about liability or responsibility just that it has to be done. Someone pukes in a robotaxi and it is not going to just clean itself. Same when they piss on the seats. Or when they spill the venti vanilla and leave a seat covered in a sticky mess. AND THEY WILL. The vehicle then goes back to some facility to be cleaned. Say it is not cleaned well and the next rider finds his hand stuck on some puke. I'm a believer in the robotaxi model, I think it is a massive need to address global warming. I just don't think Tesla, as it currently exist, has a culture that would deliver an excellent robotaxi experience. I also believe that robotaxis when more than just novelty will create a significant backlash and this will require some...savvy and political nuance and EM has not shown himself too good at that. As each robotaxi replaces several cars it is great for the mission but I think will be a challenge to implement. The average buyer is still a zealot. They BELIEVE. A robotaxi user just wants to go from a to b.

Why am I skeptical? Tesla has not succeeded at everything but especially when they are in a high consumer touch experience. Just look at the Solar Roof and even Solar panel business. Failure after failure and it is a long long string of failure. Tesla's strength has been executing on rapidly manufacturing cars. EM views Teslas greatest differentiator as the ability to manufacture. Robotaxis are a service and Tesla...well Tesla service across all aspects of the organization...sort of sucks. I have a CT reservation despite qualms on Tesla service. I don't have a Tesla Roof because Tesla could not deliver and wasted a lot of time. I am waiting now on alternatives. Likely fixed ground panels and a steel roof.

Robotaxi business is going to be just as new to Tesla as solar roofs and just as prone to failure thus I'm a fan but am not sure if Tesla would be better off creating a standalone entity to actually own that business. Not committed to any POV just that right now it seems high risk based on Tesla working outside wheelhouse.

Take another EM company, the boring company. I don't see cities beating down the doors to get tunnels built ( I too had thought of boring companies after consulting for 1 of the large ones). So solar and boring have not done well. Even in Tesla automotive they did not plan for adequate battery capacity, 4 years ago, for the production they have built and achieved. Why? They have the best team out there for EVs, hands down. They have done a phenomenal job at addressing the EV space. I think that they have finally got a clue regarding FSD but it has taken 4 years of floundering around (and that's fine it just is what it is) but they are several years from a product that would allow a robotaxi. Years. Then throw a culturally different model at the robotaxi space, it is a hospitality type experience. There is nothing whatsoever in the Tesla/Solarcity history book that would give me high confidence that Tesla will address this in a manner that will cause robotaxis to succeed. I just think it is a different experience than manufacturing.
 
My friend does YouTube (YT) videos twice a day for crypto and a few car reviews for his car channel weekly. Just the crypto YT channel revenue is 4 shares of Tesla a day. Add sponsors and it’s mind blowing. You can make huge amount of money on YT. Don’t dismiss it so lightly.

It’s enough for him to get the first Plaid in the Midwest. He can’t wait for the CyberTruck.
My point was not that youtube revenue can’t be high, but that (even just diagonally) reading this thread is a better time investment than watching youtubers. The information density in most youtube videos so so low it keeps surprising me that people actually watch those things.
 
So, how was everyone's weekend?
My point was not that youtube revenue can’t be high, but that (even just diagonally) reading this thread is a better time investment than watching youtubers. The information density in most youtube videos so so low it keeps surprising me that people actually watch those things.
I throw them on in the background while cooking or cleaning. Even if it's not new info it helps me process and think. 100% agree thought that this is the best place to get aggerated information.
 
Even for us bulls, heck, even for uber bulls, this quarter is beyond the bullish bull case.

Haha, not really! What almost EVERYBODY missed (here, and in the larger Tesla community), is that Giga Shanghai opened a 3rd GA line in Q4 2021, which was the 2nd Model Y line inside the Phase 2 expansion.

Gee, GA line count went from 2 to 3 then production went up 50%... hmm, difficult to say... NOT! It was right there in open view in WuWa's videos 18 months ago that the Assembly Hall in Phase 2 was sized for 2 parallel GA lines. It's not hard to understand that Tesla brought the GA lines up 1 at a time so they could start production ASAP. Just follow the clues, it's right all there! :D

Here's the 1st bonus clue going forward: Right now, Tesla has a project building a 4th GA line inside one of the existing buildings. There's no room for another Model Y line, but the Phase 1 Assembly hall was also sized for 2 parallel lines. So... ;)

2nd Bonus: Guess how much production will increase going from 3 GA lines to 4? If you guessed +33% you win a chair (courtesy of Gordo's Horde). 100K/mth, 1.2M/yr run rate starting in April.

Cheers! #PREDICT
 
It's a lot more engineering work than you may think to switch battery cell chemistry from NMC to LFP. The heating profile and ion conductivity are vastly different between the two cathode chemistries. It will not be as simple as just making a cell with the same electrode layer thickness as existing cells. Much thermal modeling and testing wiould be required, and then you have to ask yourself "what are the potential gains?" vs just building more of the exisitng prismatic cells.

There's nothing magical about the 4680 cell format: it's an engineering compromise that was chosen specifically for Tesla's nickel chemistry cells. I don't expect any movement before 4680 production is fully ramped with the existing design. After that, why not another clean sheet of paper? Reinvent the wheel only when the wheel costs too much, is too hard to build, or is in some other way unfit for purpose.

Cheers!
Perhaps I was overly precise linking to 4680 - The main point was, given LFP's importance to Tesla, it would appear out of place if they didn't build any of their own LFP cells to have the practical embedded knowledge of how these cells are manufactured as it leaves the door open to commercial/political shenanigans. Would it be easier to adapt the highly automated 4680 line to LFP vs create a highly automated prismatic line....That's far above my paygrade.
 
Could somebody kindly post Max-Pain and a screenshot of the "Open Interest" chart from this link? (out now at 7 am ET).


Paging @SOULPEDL or anybody who reads this first. TIA.

Cheers!
Check out Max Pain! Holy... 3 JPM's this AM and I'm agnostic.
Some stranger I donated to in CR last week pointed at the sky then at me, 3 times, really hard. I think he meant it. Coincidence? Yup!
 
An offshoot of the "it can't be done" crowd is the "if Tesla can do it, others can do it just as well" crowd. These people don't think Tesla has anything special, they are rooting for someone, anyone other than Tesla, to succeed. And I get that - it would be nice if all automakers could flip a switch and churn out EV's in large enough numbers to meet all the demand right now. But, these people should be careful for what they wish for. Because at the point there are enough EV's to satisfy demand, the emperor will not be able to hide behind low volumes while using ICE sales to cover up the problem. The problem is the cost to produce. It is impossible to offer good value when your company is inefficient at manufacturing.

Legacy auto could claim to be efficient at manufacturing ICE cars because there was no one to show them what was possible. There was no Tesla of the ICE world to illuminate just how archaic and inefficient automaking had become. It's easy to look good when you are surrounded by a field of equally incompetent manufacturers bringing poor value to consumers worldwide. Huge barriers to entry protected their incompetence.

The transition to EV provided the private investment capital for a new company to enter the race. Tesla knew they had to try harder and offer more to scale the barriers erected by the status quo and that caused them to reimagine what an auto could be and how it could be made at lower cost. Most of us here have profited handsomely by realizing that Tesla does have something special. And as time goes on, the difference between Tesla and the rest becomes more and more apparent, not less. Remember when people said the others will catch up to Tesla? Those people don't understand, it's not just about making a car with certain specs, it's about offering real value. They don't understand that not all manufacturers are equal.

The impressive P&D numbers released yesterday are not the really important thing, at least not directly. The reason the P&D numbers are important is what they reveal about Tesla. This is the best demonstration yet of Tesla's ability to make more with less and that is what drives down the cost for consumers. In four weeks, that will show up as enviable margins in the release of the 2021 financials. Those industry leading margins, even before Tesla has reached volumes measured in millions per year, are just the tip of the iceberg that has big, bloated legacy auto running scared. If Tesla can increase production and reduce cost per car that easily now, how can they compete on price when Tesla has economies of scale of millions of units per year and the EV market starts to become saturated? Because Tesla's cost to produce advantage will continue to increase with the application of new production technologies and increasing production volumes will multiply those effects. Legacy auto debt will grow as they struggle to modernize and keep up and huge debt works against the goal of low cost to produce. Anyone who thinks others will be able to keep up on that most important metric, cost to produce, must be smoking crack.
So let me give you the ant take on this...
Mixing animal story morals
What is good for the goose is good for the gander, but Elon is forcing the ICE manufacturers to kill their geese that are laying golden eggs?
 
1155 seems to be the new 300.

It keeps getting pushed down whenever it crosses.
It feels more like it's consolidating around this price point, which Idk, I kinda like. At least in terms of there being much more room to run in the near term. Could be wrong and it starts pulling back more but feels like another step up is coming in the later trading hours today.

The Call Walls at 1150 and 1200 are pretty small so I don't see a big incentive for MM's to try and step in front of volume.

The biggie to me this week is do we get that Austin official production start announcement this week. That could lead to ATH by Friday IF it happens.
 
We got some liftoff......

Somebody big moved in near the end of the pre-Market: :D

TSLA.2022-01-03.09-30.png


Volume was huge: ~2.2M shares trade in the pre-Market. :eek:

Cheers!
 
"Meh" is right! Car enthusiast routinely put a $22K "crate" motor into their ICE car after the original wears out. This pack was worn out from use; it was not damaged, it was end-of-life, and the new Owner knew that when he bought it. Little publicity stunt, little value, little something else too... :p

Cheers!
Do you know what the distance driven on the pack was? Mr Google is not helping me with that one detail. Cheers.