Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[redan]

Interesting Pierre Ferragu tweets. I like where he's heading:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486113844489601035

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486124806378594306

 

[ZeApelido]

Is he just a tease?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486144383846023169

 

[ZachF]

Plaid vs Lucid Air:

 

[Paul_SF]

Plaid vs Lucid Air:

“2022 Lada Air Dream”

 

[OrthoSurg]

There are two ways to read our current macro situation, in my opinion:

1. Status Quo is Not Priced In / Market Holding its Breath for a U-Turn: Essentially, the market has not fully priced in a March rate increase, quantitative tightening beginning as early as June, and 3 rate hikes this year, and is only where it is because investors are holding out hope for a U-turn from the Fed tomorrow, backing off of the March rate increase. If we don't get that (which is extremely unlikely!), we head lower and are in a bear market for the next 3-6 months. This is the view espoused by Kevin Paffrath on Dave Lee's podcast the other day, and why he liquidated his portfolio.
2. Status Quo is Priced In / Market Worried About "Shock and Awe": In this scenario, the market has priced in 3 rate hikes of .25 basis points and quantitative tightening beginning mid-to-later this year, and has dropped to where it has now because of concern with the possibility of an even more hawkish Fed that will give us more and/or bigger rate increases than already anticipated, and possibly quantitative tightening as soon as March. If the Fed stays the course and does not announce a more hawkish roadmap than what we've already been lead to anticipate, we'll get a relief rally as those fears dissipate.

I think we're in scenario two, and have placed my bets accordingly.

A correction of 25% in growth stocks is probably pricing 2 hikes of 0.25? I thought the discount rate made growth stock drop around 8% for every 0.25 increase?

If they announce 3 x 0.5 they will collapse even more. If they announce 3 x 0.25 starting March there will be a slow relief I believe. Now they have to decide to send the stock market into a crash and drop pension funds to fight inflation strongly or accept a higher inflation and maintain the actual correction.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Troy EPS is $2.84 (non gaap)

One thing that Troy has that some other forecasters don't is visibility into DMV data for ASP estimates. Based on that information, he is estimating 29.1% auto margins ex-regulatory credits.

 

[2daMoon]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486106859857596416

Biden to meet with CEOs to discuss Build Back Better agenda

President Biden is set to meet with several corporate executives on Wednesday at the White House to discuss his Build Back Better proposal, a White House official told The Hill on Tuesday.&nbs…

thehill.com

(not trying to make any political stmt)

Aww, they are getting together to listen to the Tesla Earnings Report together.

I hope they all bring their anti-depressants.

 

[RobDickinson]

Aww, they are getting together to listen to the Tesla Earnings Report together.

I hope they all bring their anti-depressants.

Its kinda ironic, at the time Potus is arranging how best to shovel gov money to bail out ford and Gm tesla are going to be releasing killer Q4 numbers.

 

[advocate8]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486106859857596416

Biden to meet with CEOs to discuss Build Back Better agenda

President Biden is set to meet with several corporate executives on Wednesday at the White House to discuss his Build Back Better proposal, a White House official told The Hill on Tuesday.&nbs…

thehill.com

(not trying to make any political stmt)

You really suggesting Biden should invite Elon to a big PR show about a bill Elon very publicly said shouldn’t happen? Nah. Even putting aside the fact Tesla is pretty much the only EV game in town that counts.

 

[Singuy]

Interesting Pierre Ferragu tweets. I like where he's heading:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486113844489601035

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486124806378594306

5Tw of energy by 2030? That's way beyond Tesla's guidance.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

5Tw of energy by 2030? That's way beyond Tesla's guidance.

I think he started with $10T and worked backwards until the numbers worked

 

[Singuy]

I think he started with $10T and worked backwards until the numbers worked

Need to appease the 10x or bust WSB degenerates.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Interesting Pierre Ferragu tweets. I like where he's heading:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486113844489601035

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486124806378594306

I'm not gonna quibble with the top line figure for automotive, tho I think it's a bit high. My problem is with people who base a $10T valuation primarily on making cars.

Energy revenue will be far beyond automotive by 2030.

 

[SN_8]

Here's to the crazy ones. The misfits. The 36 people already waiting for the conference call to start 20 hours early.

 

[Beltsbear]

“2022 Lada Air Dream”

Of all the brands to put in there. I mean the think looks like a Buick, so that would have been more appropriate.
That was an embarrassing loss for Lucid, considering they advertise more horsepower. Basically the Tesla won every time. One loss due to launch mode not being on.

 

[JustMe]

JPOW could crush us all tmrw, we will see. Im gonna wear my lucky socks

Thanks, bro.

I’m going to stay away from people who aren’t superstitious. They’re bad luck.

Guide like the wind Zach!

 

[mongo]

5Tw of energy by 2030? That's way beyond Tesla's guidance.

If energy is as large as automotive and automotive is 20MM * 40k ASP (lump FSD) = $800B , Megapack is $1MM for 3MWh in single units today, call it $0.5MM for 3MWh in 2030 at volume.
800B/0.5MM*3MWh=4.8TWh (yeah 1.6 million units)
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2020 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer


Yes. I can't emphasize. I think long term, Tesla Energy will be roughly the same size as Tesla Automotive. So I mean, the energy business collectively is bigger than the automotive business.

So you feel like how big is the energy sector? Bigger than automotive. And in order to achieve a sustainable energy future, we have to have sustainable energy generation, which I think is going to be primarily solar and followed by wind, and those are intermittent. So you need to have a lot of batteries to store the solar energy because the wind doesn't always blow, and the sun doesn't always shine. So there's like three elements of the sustainable energy future: wind and solar sustainable energy generation; battery storage; and electric transport, those three things.

And the mission of Tesla is to accelerate sustainable energy, so I can't emphasize enough. Yes, the battery and solar will both be enormous, and they kind of have to be in order to -- for us to have a sustainable future. And we've got a great product road map on that front as well. So we're going to ship in the Megapack.

 

[MC3OZ]

5Tw of energy by 2030? That's way beyond Tesla's guidance.

I wonder what the specific guidance for energy is?

Tesla aims to produce 3 TWh of cells in house by 2030. I estimate at least 1 TWh is for energy storage.

Tesla is already using CATL LFP for energy storage, and that likely gives them as easy path to use CATL Sodium cells.

I think Battery Day estimated the global demand for energy storage at 10 TWh per year, but gave no indication Tesla intended to provide half of it.

50% of annual global demand seems to high to me, there is a lot of competition in the energy storage space.

So I agree 5 TWh is too high, I would guess 1-2 TWh, does anyone have a better guess?

Edit: I see Mongo's calculation above, IMO there will be no problem in sourcing 5 TWh of cells by 2030-2035 if the demand is there.

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla is already using CATL LFP for energy storage

Are they? Where are you getting that information? I thought they were still all 2170 based, mainly from LG/Samsung.

 

[MC3OZ]

Are they? Where are you getting that information? I thought they were still all 2170 based, mainly from LG/Samsung.

Tesla set to introduce larger Megapacks this quarter, targeting to grow Megapack production to nearly 50GWh by 2023

Tesla broke ground last year on a new Megafactory in Lathrop, California. As the name implies the facility will produce Megapacks, Tesla’s utility-scale energy storage system. With the help of the Lathrop Megafactory, Tesla is […]

driveteslacanada.ca

I should have said "planning to use" rather than "using", but plans are well advanced.

Even though MP2-XL will have a much larger footprint and offer more storage, our source says it will actually be cheaper to produce than the current MP1 system thanks to the use of CATL Prismatic LFP cells.

I'm also assuming this unofficial source is legit. It makes perfect sense to me, if Tesla are doing this, it is a logical and excellent idea.