Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

I'm pretty sure nobody ever likes Tesla ERs or events. If you are always disappointed then perhaps it's your expectations that need to be adjusted?

 

[henchman24]

You know you guys can sell, right? If you don't like Elon's scattered tone there's always GM, they're right on point with every presentation!

Why would I sell? It was a simple criticism and one that will be shared by the larger market. People get so touchy on anything that Tesla could be doing wrong... but the simple fact of the matter is, Tesla is wrong a lot... even by their own admission. What makes Tesla different is they learn from these mistakes quickly and improve.

 

[canoemore]

no support, none

I dunno. It seems kind of hesitant to blow through 860

 

[ZsoZso]

Look at the bright side: LCID and RIVN are down more than TSLA today

You mean, they did not have a record breaking profit ER ?
Who cares, certainly not WS !

 

[Paul_SF]

It always amazes me how people always forget this market is rigged and they can do whatever they want. And they do.

They make money up or down, it really doesn’t matter to them.

HODL is the only way.

 

[lazybot]

I believe the way Elon handled that question turn some investors bearish. FSD is currently the only execution fails at tesla because unlike any of their other products, we are still stuck at this "dream" phase (kind of like what Elon said, we want to go to the moon but that's just a desire to which is the easy part).

If Elon framed it as "currently our demand for our 3/y products are beyond our expectations, and with the advent of FSD that we feel can drive demand further, we feel the 25k car is not yet necessary. However we do believe in making teslas affordable to all this project will be executed depending on market conditions ". That would have been a better answer.

Right now analysts are discounting high demand for teslas due to a shortage of new cars in general and may not last as supply chain ease.

Elon's unfiltered responses are a big negative in the context of an earnings call where most of the questions tend to be short term oriented. He would do retail investors a big favor by limiting his participation to annual share holder meetings and product unveils/technology demos. Zach would have framed the responses much better which would have limited the FUD

 

[nativewolf]

With Elon's focus on FSD vs $25K EV....this math helps illustrate his thinking....the math above is crazy with a $57K EV or a $25K EV because of FSD....

But that won't be a 57k model y if FSD works. It will be $100k. Do the math of putting that into the market or cashflow from a taxi with not many obstacles to entry. If it were so easy then Uber would at least break even and not have losses of over 50% of revenues. Or come close to break even. But when your revenue is 11 billion and losses are 6+ than.....something is wrong and cars/drivers don't explain it all.

 

[replicant]

The call was a disaster. The tone was all wrong. They should have kept driving the point that while there may be more supply chain challenges, they are confident in their 50% growth target, the two new factories have started production, and earnings will be even higher this year. They should literally have said that at the end of every question instead of sounding negative.

Or they should stick to the truth and tell long-term investors (like most of us here, I hope) what their plans are. I like hearing that they believe FSD matters more than cheap EVs, and that they expect bots to make more profits than EV.s And that they're delaying Semi, Roadster and Cybertruck due to chip shortages so they can produce as many EVs as possible now.

I don't care about a short drop in the stock price. Honesty (even at a cost) is worth far more to long term investors than a fake narrative to please Wall Street (and their mischievous analysts). The rest is noise.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I think Elon should be banned from ER's in future. He doesn't have an appreciation for the nuance in the delivery of the message required for the audience. Zach does. There is too much at stake considering the $1TN valuation and all that...

He needs to be given other platforms where he can do roadmaps etc. The audience at these (Battery, AI, etc. days, or even short 1h presentations) will lap it up and more importantly will understand. And in between doing those he should do what Elon does: create the most amazing products to solve the biggest challenges of the world today.

Just don't talk about that on an ER in a macro-bloodbath period. Or any other period.

Analysts, investment bankers, pensions funds, etc. need data presented without fluff. Elon on the call is/was a disaster. Considering his hatred for short sellers, he really needs to see that his waxing lyrical over futurology ('cause that's what it is to 95% of listeners) feeds the short's narrative and a -8% reaction in TSLA the immediate next day is the result.

And before some of you scream: but HODL, there are a tremendous amount of retail investors that are HODL'ing and doing options for income that are massively affected by this.

Yes, by all means let's change the recipe that got us here! Splendid idea!

 

[betstarship]

Pushing the other automakers didn't work, it's over already. I've concluded legacy/new will not help because their shifting timelines don't add up to a hill of beans. FSD and robotaxi are the trigger that makes a gas car just way too expensive to operate, maintain, or insure. Useless goals "by 2025, 2030" are for the shareholders of legacy only, or for some political or monetary gain.

It's all about utility now. In manufacturing terms, it's MU or Machine Utilization. I bet it's an indicator hanging on the wall in Elon's office. The factory continues even after the sale of the vehicle - it produces mobility for the next 10-20 yrs. Currently they have a very low MU. It's quite obvious where the mission constraint is, and FSD it the accelerant.

Let's face it, I'm part of the problem putting on a mere 6,000 mi in 1 full year on our Model Y, and that's our main vehicle. I bet we have a few more folks here that fall into this bucket. But I'm also willing to rent them out as part of the solution and make some coin in the process. The puke in the car is par - reminds me why I don't drink, feel sorry for them.

But please, let's not re-hash how you're not renting your vehicle! Plenty of other ways to bring up the MU. Hertz is a good one for example.

Maybe FSD is the best example of how a computer on wheels can operate right now. Though, is the investment in Tesla about inspiring wow moments or transitioning to sustainability? Personally, Track Mode, Sentry Mode, Dog Mode, Bioweapons Defense Mode, 1 Million Mile Battery+, etc. are all great examples of of a computer on wheels.

The rest of the industry could come along for the ride if they build compliance EV's for Tesla's FSD API and supplant safety across the ecosystem for all drivers regardless of the vehicle they're driving. Heck, it's likely even safer driving through tunnels rather than a highway.

I still think Tesla still needs to sell more cars than build FSD, but I get what they're trying to do the more we explore this topic and see that running this in parallel for 2024...kinda has all the pieces coming together if Tesla, being so far ahead from everyone else, starts building compassion for the other automakers/competitors via the user story of safety and sustainability for every adopter of sustainable solutions (and likewise via coopetition ... a Nash-ian concept).

 

[StealthP3D]

Today is proof Elon speaking on the call is always a bad thing.

It's easy to forget that a low valuation is powerful bait for attracting top talent. Even in an era of part shortages, the biggest limiting factor to Tesla's long-term growth is a lack of enough smart, capable people. Telsa's wages are only industry-leading once employee stock options are considered. Smart people get this. A lower share price could easily be the difference between an individual deciding to take the plunge and diving head-first into work at Tesla vs. taking the easy way out and living on the earnings from their last lucrative job or remaining where they are. A low share price makes Tesla a much more attractive place to work. It is also powerful incentive for people already integrated in Tesla to remain.

It's counter-intuitive but a low share price is actually very good for Tesla's long-term trajectory. And this is really an important turning point for the company in terms of transitioning into the next phases of their growth. You can't bring successful new products to market in ever-increasing numbers without an ever-increasing supply of human talent, Tesla's most limiting factor.

 

[nativewolf]

I think Elon should be banned from ER's in future. He doesn't have an appreciation for the nuance in the delivery of the message required for the audience. Zach does. There is too much at stake considering the $1TN valuation and all that...

He needs to be given other platforms where he can do roadmaps etc. The audience at these (Battery, AI, etc. days, or even short 1h presentations) will lap it up and more importantly will understand. And in between doing those he should do what Elon does: create the most amazing products to solve the biggest challenges of the world today.

Just don't talk about that on an ER in a macro-bloodbath period. Or any other period.

Analysts, investment bankers, pensions funds, etc. need data presented without fluff. Elon on the call is/was a disaster. Considering his hatred for short sellers, he really needs to see that his waxing lyrical over futurology ('cause that's what it is to 95% of listeners) feeds the short's narrative and a -8% reaction in TSLA the immediate next day is the result.

And before some of you scream: but HODL, there are a tremendous amount of retail investors that are HODL'ing and doing options for income that are massively affected by this.

Well that means they are speculating. Speculation is speculation and not investing. You can't have cake and eat it too because Covid happens or EM can get on another earnings call and talk about FSD being 18 months away. It's going to take the stock 7 months to recover from this one. If you are invested, no worries no losses, it will recover.

 

[hitchhiker]

With Elon's focus on FSD vs $25K EV....this math helps illustrate his thinking....the math above is crazy with a $57K EV or a $25K EV because of FSD....

I don't think that math has anything to do with it, even though I agree with it.

Elon has made mistakes in the past in pre-announcing vehicles too far ahead of time and naming price points too early in the cycle. With each of those, its hurt the company in the long run. I read this as shifting to a more Apple-like approach to new products: Announce it with a price at a point when you can say "And we start deliveries in 3 weeks!", rather than letting people constantly criticize every inevitable delay and change in market pricing along the way.

He didn't say "we're not making a smaller car". He said "we're not working on a $25k car". And really -- before he ramps up this product that hasn't been revealed, priced or put into production yet, there's three more vehicles already in the pipeline that we're waiting for.

(note that I said it was a mistake to pre-announce... but it may not have been at that stage of the company. When you're courting investors, doing the hype-cycle thing helps. But he doesn't need someone else's money any more. No reason to create the negative side of the hype cycle)

 

[Willrtsoon]

Think bigger.

Optimus won't:

1. Shoot other employees in the parking lot (a la recent Fremont murder).
2. Sue, and win HUGE awards, for discrimination lawsuits (while trying to get family members hired at the "oppressive environment" Tesla; can't make this stuff up).
3. Complain about a 24/7 work schedule.
4. Get tired.
5. Take vacations.
6. Require medical insurance.

Optimus moves the needle at Tesla by being a force multiplier, allowing for greater production with less humans, especially the kind of humans that sometimes get hired, but shouldn't have been . . . .

1 more thing. Optimus won’t unionized

 

[ZachF]

Spot on. There was too much "pie in the sky" with minimal substances for those items. That talk is great for Tesla enthusiasts, it's not for TSLA investors unless you can provide something concrete for them to focus on. And let's face it, Elon's timeline projections have a historically poor accuracy rate.

Optimus Subprime - who cares until you can show it working along side a human and doing at least as good a work as them?
FSD - this is getting old. We understand as core enthusiasts, but he needs to keep a lid on this until he's able to show it's 100X or more better than a human.


The fundamentals of the company are SPECTACULAR. THAT should have been the focus of the call. The rest should have been held back till "better cooked".

The no new product product roadmap didn’t help either.

 

[NicoV]

Did people honestly think there would be a positive reaction to products unveiled 3-5 years ago being delayed yet again?

If Tesla had a demand problem they would already have released these products in whatever state they are, and with whatever production mechanisms they could cobble together.
Instead, they have a backlog of about a year for products they can build very profitably, while having the time to tweak the new products and the corresponding production. It’s more money this year (build what you have at very good margins now) and more money next year (build the new products better and cheaper). What‘s not to like?
I’m pretty sure, should the environment change to something that resembles a demand problem, these new products would become suddenly available much sooner.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Based on the stock price activity it is clear to me that the TSLA algo-bots use this thread as their primary feedstock.

One is certainly reflecting the other! Nice thing is......banks don't care about anything but money, and the math is happening as we speak. I think @The Accountant is halfway done with 2022 EPS revisions, banks shouldn't be far behind.

Sold another 100 shares @ $877 and converted to LEAPs/calls/powder:
Jan 2024 $1200c @ $226
Jan 2023 $900c @ $206.50
Mar 2022 $100c @ $43.50

Tried to buy another Jan 2024 $1200c @ $19, but missed it. Will just hold the rest as dry powder for calls if we go lower and to help widen my 2/4 BPS if I need to roll them to 2/11.

Wonderful day, I'll take a $1099 close tomorrow.

 

[ZCStoFly]

Elon forsees the age of automation is coming. Rockets. spaceships, boosters are all operated autonomously. AI will dominate the next generation. Autonomous driving is just a small part of the game, in less than 1 year.

 

[replicant]

And before some of you scream: but HODL, there are a tremendous amount of retail investors that are HODL'ing and doing options for income that are massively affected by this.

Maybe they shouldn't?

Elon has said repeatedly that you should not invest in TSLA is you can't bear volatility. And that the company only needs support from long term investors.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

I am disappointed to hear about the cheaper model. I guess they are very confident about demand for 3 and Y for the short term. I don't think FSD is enough to compensate for the lack of the cheaper model.

Of course, he said no to the 25k model, but Tesla could end up selling a 35k model after lower costs from 4680 etc. I think a cheaper model about 30-35k (current prices) is needed to grow the TAM. People who are going to buy FSD for 12k (or more) are ones who can afford to spend 50-60k on a car. But if sales have to grow way beyond 5M, a cheaper car than the current ones is needed. I think Tesla will eventually solve FSD to the point it is consistent largely and that will help revenues. I am not sold on robotaxis since that requires FSD to be way more refined than a personal use case. Plus there will be regulatory issues. I see many including robotaxis in their valuations but I think it is important to not get carried away. Tesla is yet to solve FSD, let alone robotaxis.

In the new TAAS paradigm/pivot, FSD/robotaxi is the crucial thing.

Cheap cars are nice, but the ~40K M3 is plenty cheap enough. (Subtract 30% if Tesla has their own fleet)

So, a) solving FSD and b) ramping production to 2M, 4M, 8M and beyound is important. Cost saving on a new car is not.

Off course, should Elon, once again, prove over-optimistic, this is a medium risk going forward.
If FSD does not materialize within at most 3 years then not having the 25K car ready at that time risks stopping or reducing the growth.

(CT, Semi and Tesla Energy will provide a lot of growth, but the growth narrative may come under heavy pressure)