Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

At what price point of the SP recovery will the care bears disappear

 

[Big Time]

ok. so + 3% so far.... But im more of a...... +33% guy?

 

[Jack6591]

Snapped a pic this morning in Temecula California…

 

[Artful Dodger]

Full technical breakdown confirmed. lol

T/A ain't that hard.

Quick shoutout to @ZachF for calling $700s when this avalanche started. It seemed unimaginable at the time.

Hedgies ALWAYS hunt the stops on the big, round numbers. With the MA(200) so close to $800 at the Opening today, it was OBVIOUS that would be their next move when they reached their 1st tgt just 9 minutes into the main session:

And then we hit today's Intraday low just 9 minutes later at 09:48 (chart already posted, upthread) $792

Let me share a little aphorism I heard from a U.S. Marines Lance Corporal during Operation Desert Storm:

"Fear chumps you up."​

I got more if you liked that one.

Cheers!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Sold my 2x 1/28 $890c I bought at $4.20 & $2.85 for $1.80 each.
Sold my only earnings report YOLO 1x 1/28 $920c bought in my HSA for $36 for.........$.55

WINNING!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

ok. so + 3% so far.... But im more of a...... +33% guy?

2 weeks maybe.....2 months definitely.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Thank you for that! The table @Chunky Jr. posted cannot be interpreted very meaningfully without those juicy little bits of info!

Which makes me wonder who created the table and what their motivation was. Because, while that table looks bullish at first glance, it's not nearly as bullish as when you consider these two bits of info. This is going to drive selection of higher trim levels and margins right when that could be most useful (as Tesla is ramping two new Gigafactories).

I created the table to provide the info so others don't have to look it up themselves. I didn't think to look at every possible trim/option combination other than the high level LR vs Performance type differentiations. Maybe I'll do that, but that seems like a lot of work. If enough people here find value in it, then I'll do it.

 

[Big Time]

Nasdaq heading for +2%?
Seems like potentially good macro news.
But ya the closes have been brutal.
If we retest and go lower than the first big dip around the start of the week....Then spooky, for now seems ok

 

[canoemore]

This feels like another yank-the-football kind of day.

 

[StealthP3D]

The fact Kia ENiro came out in the UK at £33k makes me think they can deliver a cheaper EV in the future. And the ENiro is a great EV. The Youtubers here all loved it. UK EVMAN considered it strongly - but didn't bite because of the Supercharger network. That the other youtuber MrEV bought one. They're real - and I trust them to deliver. AC and heated seats - so wasn't some crappy interior either. Also 7 year "everything" warranty.

Ummm, no. You cannot judge the cost to produce based upon the MSRP. That's not how the auto business works.

In a nutshell, you set MSRP depending upon how much value the car offers consumers. Most EV's from other manufacturers are hovering near break-even now and they need a certain volume of sales to make them viable. If they estimate wrong, they can lose a lot of money.

Never conflate MSRP with cost to produce.

 

[Artful Dodger]

maybe we should consider getting rid of the useless uptick rule too

again, not too hopeful on that front

We did (or at least the SEC got rid of the uptick rule). That one worked good from 1932 until 1998 when it was replaced by the Alternate Uptick Rule, which specifically grants an exemption to Options Market Makers from the SEC prohibition against selling below the National Best Price.

The 'justification' was to provide liquidity in the Options market, when Contract order flow exceeds the ability of the Market Maker to borrow shares before selling them (duh, yeah, it's called naked short selling or as I prefer, THEFT).

So when shortzes can't short when the -10% curcuit breaker is in effect, they just buy short puts and their Options Market Maker reflexively sells 100 shares per contract. Buy big buckets of contracts, and they sell butt loads of shares, burning through the Order book and dropping the SP.

Easy-peasy, lemon-squeezee.

/s

 

[Cherry Wine]

Nasdaq heading for +2%?
Seems like potentially good macro news.
But ya the closes have been brutal.
If we retest and go lower than the first big dip around the start of the week....Then spooky, for now seems ok

Yep, too early to know if this will be another (and probably last) sell the rip before official bear market or the start of a more sustained rally and continued bull market.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Domo arigato, Mr. Roboto- I needed this little bounce badly.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Google is showing an updated P/E of 172.72, while Yahoo (and Apple Stocks app) still show the old value of 275.50

 

[Paul_SF]

Google is showing an updated P/E of 172.72, while Yahoo (and Apple Stocks app) still show the old value of 275.50

I don’t think it matters. Who’s using them to look up the share prices probably have no idea about PE ratios and stuff. Who knows how to calculate those are not looking at the share prices on Google/Yahoo anyway, no?

 

[CorneliusXX]

Thought id share this, got this from a bloomberg reporter:
View attachment 761338
View attachment 761339
She checks out...what do yall think?

99% chance your words are twisted

 

[StealthP3D]

50% growth with just Fremont and Shanghai? That is kinda drastic vs everyone’s 22 predictions. I think 1,8-2 M is on order. New factories will mind blow

It's certainly possible, but let's not set the bar too high. It really depends upon the chip supply and even management doesn't know how that will actually play out.

 

[dww12]

Will NN solve the bipedal balance problem that Boston Dynamics can not? I buy that job specific Optimus task training would be somewhat trivial compared to FSD, but is balance as trivial and if so what has stopped BD (the dancing robots is a “best of” and not 100% repeatable)?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

99% chance your words are twisted

Id give this a >0% chance

 

[canoemore]

Will NN solve the bipedal balance problem that Boston Dynamics can not? I buy that job specific Optimus task training would be somewhat trivial compared to FSD, but is balance as trivial and if so what has stopped BD (the dancing robots is a “best of” and not 100% repeatable)?

Probably the same way a toddler learns. Fall over a lot until it gets it.

Training gets a lot easier when the failure condition doesn't involve 2-ton hunk of metal smashing into something fragile at 60mph.

Biologically-inspired side note: Engineering some analogue of pain could come in handy for training. "If you do something that hurts, don't do it that way again."

I suppose making them feel pain would open an ethical can of worms. And doom us to an inevitable robot revolution. Might want to cogitate a bit more on this one.