Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

If I were a conspiracy theorist . . . I would wonder if Big Oil and ICE Auto has orchestrated an attack on the EV market in general . . . masking it with the macro

But then I look at most sectors of the market and it all looks like

I have also noticed that high crude oil prices are often associated with bear raids on the EV sector. Not hard to imagine causality.

 

[ZachF]

Typo - meant EQS!! - The longest range electric cars of 2022
The EQC is an inefficient tank by comparison! The EQS is probably heavy due to 110kWh and luxury stuff + insulation and strength.

The EQS weighs 5,600-6,000 pounds, 1000+ more than comparable Model Ss. It’s a slow fat pig.

It’ll only be worse when it has to compete against structural 4680s…

WLTP numbers thrown out by the German automakers are usually fantasy/comedy tier data.

 

[Knightshade]

Typo - meant EQS!! - The longest range electric cars of 2022
The EQC is an inefficient tank by comparison! The EQS is probably heavy due to 110kWh and luxury stuff + insulation and strength.

Q4 2021 Mercedes sold...443 EQS.

S/X Q4 for Tesla- 11,750.

I realize it only launched in Q4, but might be a bit early to label the EQS "compelling"

Also, its EPA range (on the single motor version which is the highest) is only 350 miles- so significantly less than the 405 on the longest range Model S which is also AWD.

The AWD EQS drops to 340... where as again 405 for the AWD base S, or 396 for Plaid.


See below with both versions of the EQS and both of the S-- the S has much better range across the board, and obviously better performance too.

 

[wtlloyd]

I usually watch Tesla Daily in the evenings, or, if it posts early enough, listen as a podcast on the drive home.
But I missed last nights post until this morning.
If you haven't seen it, you'll feel much, much better when you do

 

[googlepeakoil]

You probably hadn't noticed that specifying better wheels OR white seats brings the delivery forward. (3+Y)

Tesla being cheeky about forcing people to higher margin cars. Bet the white seats cost like $5 more than the black ones, yet they can sell them for $1000 (or is it more now) extra! Same with the bigger wheels - there's an Excel spreadsheet somewhere in Tesla showing they cost like $30 extra!

 

[canoemore]

I usually watch Tesla Daily in the evenings, or, if it posts early enough, listen as a podcast on the drive home.
But I missed last nights post until this morning.
If you haven't seen it, you'll feel much, much better when you do

Loved listening to that this morning. Rob's preternatural patience definitely cracking though, lol.

 

[Phobi]

We're slipstreaming the Nasdaq (which seems to be staying afloat mostly on AAPL's performance today)

Thanks Tim? lol

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Please take the plugging of competitors' cars (Kia, Mercedes) to another thread or, better, no thread at all.

 

[2daMoon]

Please form a line to get your FUD vaccination.

SMR shares post-earnings clips from a plethora of analysts telling the Tesla story and supporting long-term growth.

For those looking for a little pick-me-up this morning, this brings into balance future reality against the short-term market dynamics.

Enjoy!

For those already vaccinated, you may like this booster shot.
Chicken Genius shares his perspective about FSD and future gains.

 

[InDaClub]

New price targets for TSLA.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486799558743150599

 

[Drax7]

Lower stock prices will make it more difficult for emerging EV companies to raise
the capital required to reach scale and positive margins.
That may imply tesla will have less competition.

 

[StealthP3D]

Appreciate your wisdom,
one caveat. The very people who he despises are the ones making all the moolah right now

Yes and no. The market makers and others on Wall Street are constantly skimming profits from the markets and that makes the markets less efficient than they would be in a more ideal world. But we don't have enough visibility to say whether their total profits would be higher or lower without the wrench that Elon threw into their way of doing things on the earnings call. If they had guessed Elon was going to put a damper on things, then, yes, you are correct, they made higher profits.

But my best guess is they were positioning themselves to avoid the likely fallout from record-breaking earnings and Elon's comments threw their game off. That they probably would have made better profits if things had gone more as planned. That's just loose speculation, what is not is that the bulk of profits come from the actual appreciation of shares and I'm confident he was successful in throwing off a lot of naysayers and detractors who had tentatively planned to profit from the expected good results and then dump the shares and crash the price after earnings.

Elon understands how to use chaos and unpredictability to make things go his way in the end. He is the ultimate player of the long game. That's one of things I deeply respect him for. He's not the "flash in the pan" showman that TSLAQ accuses him of being. He leaves that role to people like Trevor Milton. Elon Musk has more substance in his little finger than Mr. Milton has in his entire being.

 

[ggies07]

One of the most commonly pushed reasons why we cannot adopt sustainable energy quickly but must do it over a multi-decadal period is because the job is too big. It would cost too much and we can't afford to do that. So we have to wean ourselves off fossil fuel gradually, very slowly.

umm, no.

https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/files/energy_transition_paper-INET-working-paper.pdf

Here we take a new approach based on probabilistic cost forecasting methods that made reliable predictions when they were empirically tested on more than 50 technologies.

We use these methods to estimate future energy system costs and find that, compared to continuing with a fossil-fuel-based system, a rapid green energy transition will likely result in overall net savings of many trillions of dollars - even without accounting for climate damages or co-benefits of climate policy.

We show that if solar photovoltaics, wind, batteries and hydrogen electrolyzers continue to follow their current exponentially increasing deployment trends for another decade, we achieve a near-net-zero emissions energy system within twenty-five years.

In contrast, a slower transition (which involves deployment growth trends that are lower than current rates) is more expensive and a nuclear driven transition is far more expensive.

 

[larmor]

A compact car must be cheap to produce. If FSD works, you can leave out superfluous retro parts like a steering wheel (For emergency, you can have steering wheel on the monitor). Best part is no part. This doesn’t work if FSD doesn’t work. So, shelving the Tesla Q is bullish?!

I think the comments (and drama) over FSD and lack of production for a super cheap car can be distilled into the fact that a car is underutilized, and sits idle for up to 75% of the time (or more). So when FSD is usable, then the current fleet is really 3x FSD cars.

 

[phantasms]

This is what my sister got me for Christmas. She had asked in November what I wanted and I said a TSLA dip. Her name is Samantha, I'll tell her you all said thank you.

 

[Big Time]

CNBC up next former board member to explain how Tesla is still overvalued

 

[82bert]

Tesla being cheeky about forcing people to higher margin cars. Bet the white seats cost like $5 more than the black ones, yet they can sell them for $1000 (or is it more now) extra! Same with the bigger wheels - there's an Excel spreadsheet somewhere in Tesla showing they cost like $30 extra!

Who are you?! A little bear raid brings out the kooks and FUDsters rapidly.

 

[StealthP3D]

Lower stock prices will make it more difficult for emerging EV companies to raise
the capital required to reach scale and positive margins.
That may imply tesla will have have less competition.

Less competition than zero is still the same zero. Tesla has no real competition worth considering. Their low cost of production proves it. I'm keeping my eyes open and still I'm seeing nothing. You need to look at pricing power to say something is competitive.

When can we stop talking about 'competition'?

 

[juanmedina]

Bought 8 shares and sold one 800/600 jan23 BPS for $100.

 

[neezer]

Comparing to Amazon's EPS recent history ...