Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MXWing]

I think we're getting close to being able to retire the acronym FAANG. I expect Amazon's to continue to disappoint for a while as well.

Anyone want to come up with a new acronym for Microsoft, Apple, Google, and Tesla?

GTAM

10^100 Total Addressable Market

 

[Tyler34]

MAGNT (pronounced magnet)
n for nvidia

 

[Paul_SF]

Well I wonder where all this money that is exiting the market will go? Bonds? /s

 

[Big Time]

Well I wonder where all this money that is exiting the market will go? Bonds? /s

ETSY

 

[oldTAVguy]

Well I wonder where all this money that is exiting the market will go? Bonds? /s

The wealth in terms of dollars is just evaporating. There is not much actual shifting of money. Wealth in terms of shares stays the same.

 

[kabin]

Well I wonder where all this money that is exiting the market will go? Bonds? /s

For the last month or so it's been moving to financials, energy, healthcare, dividend stocks, and cash.

 

[mongo]

TOGA
Tesla, micrOsoft, Google, Apple.

When their stocks are climbing, it's a TOGA party

Sounds like Tesla...
Take Off or Go Around
Takeoff/go-around switch - Wikipedia

 

[SmokyPeat]

I like TANG for: Tesla, Apple, Nvidia, Google. Nothing wrong with Microsoft, just not a stock that I've purchased.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nice! I forgot TSLA and Facebook messanger stocks are tied at the hip. What a joke. Totally zucked

Meta-unstable compound:

FB

Meta Platforms Inc.

252.27

-66.73

(-20.92%)

 

[OrthoSurg]

Meta-unstable compound:

FB

Meta Platforms Inc.

252.27

-66.73

(-20.92%)

There is this Boglehead investor Strong man personal finance on YT making videos to ridiculise MeetKevin since he sold off all his portfolio and bought QQQ puts couple days ago. His theory is that TSLA will collapse -50% if Tesla ever miss Wallstreet expectations on a ER. Seeing FB -20% because they have -5% compared to wallstreet EPS estimate, I am starting to pray Tesla never misses a wallstreet estimate, ever.

 

[Artful Dodger]

There is this Boglehead investor Strong man personal finance on YT making videos to ridiculise MeetKevin since he sold off all his portfolio and bought QQQ puts couple days ago. His theory is that TSLA will collapse -50% if Tesla ever miss Wallstreet expectations on a ER. Seeing FB -20% because they have -5% compared to wallstreet EPS estimate, I am starting to pray Tesla never misses a wallstreet estimate, ever.

Haha, pretty sure TSLA has collapsed 50% after Earnings beats in each of the past 5 Q4 reports. Some here have now set their sights on Q+1.

Meh. Personally, I'm more interested in the Q+23 Earnings letter (Oct 2027)...

Cheers!

 

[generalenthu]

I think we're getting close to being able to retire the acronym FAANG. I expect Amazon's to continue to disappoint for a while as well.

Anyone want to come up with a new acronym for Microsoft, Apple, Google, and Tesla?

How about MATA? Too close to Meta? I'll see myself out.

 

[Discoducky]

Ford, it seems, is also spinning some yarn with the whole 'electrified', at least the Mach e sales didn't drop m/m

Dec 2359
Jan 2370

Ford boasts over 167 percent growth in EV sales, announces Wal-Mart's 1,100 E-Transit order

Ford released its January 2022 Sales Release, boasting some impressive figures in terms of electric vehicle sales. Ford states that its sales were up 167.2 percent in January compared to the same month in 2021. The growth is outpacing the industry average by almost four times, Ford said in its...

www.teslarati.com

 

[Surfer of Life]

There's a reason Tesla management has a dim view of VTG. It's because Tesla management uses first-principles thinking like a guided laser to arrive at the truth of things better than most people can in their wildest dreams. Tesla's success is a direct result of thinking about thousands of things correctly and avoiding the temptation to use fuzzy thinking to arrive at non-optimal solutions

Sure, VTG might seem like a great thing to one with less ability to fully parse the necessary considerations, but that doesn't mean that person is thinking more clearly than Tesla management or that they have more information at their disposal than Tesla management or that Tesla management has a conflict of interest that leads to a non-optimal position. In a nutshell, here's why widespread VTG does not make sense:

An EV's battery must be sized taking all relevant considerations into account. Too big and the owner is wasting money on seldom used capacity while packing around excessive weight that reduces the efficiency of the vehicle and wears the tires unnecessarily quickly.

There are two primary use cases for VTG; (1) Emergency energy storage of each EV to draw upon in the event of power failure and (2) The collective storage of all EV's in a region to buffer grid demand and reduce the need for peaker plants. The least desirable place to put batteries for emergencies is in a vehicle that has an indeterminate location. If the EV's battery is sized properly for daily needs then by the time you get home and find your power is out, there is precious little storage available to use as backup power, especially if you don't want to disable the remaining functionality of your car during a power outage of indeterminate length that prevents you from re-charging it. For the reasons already given, it would be silly to oversize the vehicle battery to achieve a certain kWh buffer of capacity that you normally wouldn't have purchased, just for emergency needs. That money should be put into batteries purchased for that purpose that don't have to be lugged around everywhere you go and that are always available for use when the need arises.

VTG for buffering grid demand. This use case is no more compelling to the individual car buyer than the scenario for emergency storage because the primary benefit to the car owner is simply a small arbitrage on the price electricity. Any energy used for grid storage is not available for range. Therefore, the battery must be sized larger than optimal for transportation alone. If the arbitrage profit makes it worthwhile to pay for more batteries than you need for transport alone, then it makes sense to buy those batteries, using a loan if necessary, and mount them in a stationary location, not lug them around with you wherever you go.

In both of these use cases the common principle is that the car battery should be sized for transportation, not stationary storage. If either of these use cases appear to make sense, they should also make sense with stand-alone storage batteries. You are paying for that capacity in both dollars and weight when it's installed in the car. It's fuzzy incorrect thinking to say, "Yes, but I already have the battery, I might as well make it do double duty." That's because there is not a good correlation between when you have a power outage and when you have lower transportation needs. Nor is there a good correlation, for most people, between when the grid needs storage capacity and when you have reduced transport needs.

In short, don't drive around with your unneeded battery capacity. It wastes tire life, reduces handling, increases the cost of the car and reduces driving efficiency. It also puts a more expensive battery at risk in the event of an accident and doesn't ensure the extra capacity is available when it's needed.

Batteries are of great benefit to any grid system, but they should be sized for the use case, located where needed and reliably available.

Tesla is smarter than me, yes.

But I have no intention of buying a higher KWH Tesla car for grid storage. I usually arrive home with 2-3 Powerwall’s worth of unused KWH, so no problem there. And I’ve only got a 75 KWH battery. When I see a predicted weather event coming a few days ahead, I could gradually ramp my nightly charge limit as that approaches so there’s extra for the grid or emergency use. (I actually do that in case I need to use my little inverter to run a light, cell charger, electric blankets etc.) And my battery’s almost always between 20% - 80% charge.

Hence the disagree.

I realize my current, 4 year old battery chemistry is probably not right for V2G, but I’m assuming, of course, that my next Tesla will have a more appropriate chemistry for a little V2G, and there’s times when enough plugged in cars could really take the edge off the power supply in certain trouble areas or in extreme weather events.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Ford, it seems, is also spinning some yarn with the whole 'electrified', at least the Mach e sales didn't drop m/m

Dec 2359
Jan 2370

Ford boasts over 167 percent growth in EV sales, announces Wal-Mart's 1,100 E-Transit order

Ford released its January 2022 Sales Release, boasting some impressive figures in terms of electric vehicle sales. Ford states that its sales were up 167.2 percent in January compared to the same month in 2021. The growth is outpacing the industry average by almost four times, Ford said in its...

www.teslarati.com

Yeah I noticed that as well. The only reason Ford can tout that growth percentage? Jan 2021 sales for the Mach-E were practically non existent. Unless they're able to get Mach E sales for February back up to near 4,000, they'll actually post a YoY decline..........doesn't look so rosy now does it Ford?

 

[EVMeister]

Great billboard near Times Square!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1488986089259864066

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla is smarter than me, yes.

But I have no intention of buying a higher KWH Tesla car for grid storage. I usually arrive home with 2-3 Powerwall’s worth of unused KWH, so no problem there. And I’ve only got a 75 KWH battery. When I see a predicted weather event coming a few days ahead, I could gradually ramp my nightly charge limit as that approaches so there’s extra for the grid or emergency use. I’m almost always between 20% - 80% charge.

Hence the disagree.

And if you understand li-ion battery lifespan, that's another strike against VTG right there. It encourages owners to charge to higher voltages, so they have more energy stored. There is more than meets the eye involved here. If Tesla changes their stance on VTG in the future, it will be because the underlying technology and thus the economics of VTG has advanced, not because they finally "get it".

But this conversation has gone far beyond what is appropriate on an investors thread. From an investment standpoint, suffice to say that Tesla has the best EV economics of any EV manufacturer out there without VTG and adopting VTG isn't going to change that for the better.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Yeah I noticed that as well. The only reason Ford can tout that growth percentage? Jan 2021 sales for the Mach-E were practically non existent. Unless they're able to get Mach E sales for February back up to near 4,000, they'll actually post a YoY decline..........doesn't look so rosy now does it Ford?

Here in BC EV’s are in super short supply and the name of the game is “waiting list”. Except Mach E’s. Lots of Ford lots with lots of Mach E’s. Walk in and drive out with a brand new Mach E. No waiting. And lots of advertising. Interesting.

 

[Thekiwi]

Tesla is smarter than me, yes.

But I have no intention of buying a higher KWH Tesla car for grid storage. I usually arrive home with 2-3 Powerwall’s worth of unused KWH, so no problem there. And I’ve only got a 75 KWH battery. When I see a predicted weather event coming a few days ahead, I could gradually ramp my nightly charge limit as that approaches so there’s extra for the grid or emergency use. I’m almost always between 20% - 80% charge.

Hence the disagree.

This may sound bonkers, but is there a simple system available that can operate as a very inefficient power sharer from an EV (in an emergency) that involves raising the car off the ground and generating power from running the wheels across rollers etc that then generate electricity that can be fed into the house?

Obviously a lot of energy would be lost in the process, but something is better than nothing in some emergency situations I expect, and this would require no modification of an EV to achieve.

 

[Singuy]

If people are wondering how FB's earnings is affecting what is being priced into the entire market, this line from the earnings report may have such impact as people digest what is said.

"Second, we will lap a period of strong demand in the prior year and we're hearing from advertisers that macroeconomic challenges like cost inflation and supply chain disruptions are impacting advertiser budgets"