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I lost it at this part of the 10-K:

We are highly dependent on the services of Elon Musk, Technoking of Tesla and our Chief Executive Officer.

We are highly dependent on the services of Elon Musk, Technoking of Tesla and our Chief Executive Officer. Although Mr. Musk spends significant time with Tesla and is highly active in our management, he does not devote his full time and attention to Tesla. Mr. Musk also currently serves as Chief Executive Officer and Chief Technical Officer of Space Exploration Technologies Corp., a developer and manufacturer of space launch vehicles, and is involved in other emerging technology ventures.


The title of Technoking makes this risk assessment read like a joke.

The title 'Technoking' is as unofficial as the title 'Chief Executive Officer' (see his interview with WSJ's Joanna Stern)
 
A good implementation of 'steering by wire' is going to need more than just software to get right. Anyone who's been on a driving/racing simulator will know how important the force feedback is in giving you the correct feelings of what the road surface is like, level of grip etc. so the steering wheel needs to be connected to a motor which is controlled by the software but also needs to be powerful and responsive enough to give accurate feeback.
I'm sure it's going to come eventually but I don't see cost savings over a mechanical system being the reason for some time.
 

Tesla Inc said on Monday it received a subpoena from the U.S. securities regulator in November related to the SEC settlement that required top boss Elon Musk's tweets on material information to be vetted.

The disclosure in an annual filing Inline XBRL Viewer with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission comes after Musk triggered a stock sell-off after asking his Twitter followers in November https://bit.ly/3opTftt if he should sell 10% of his stake in the company.
 
I'm fairly certain that the CATL LFP are prismatic/pouch and Elon has said they won't be using 4680 for LFP.
I worded it badly. Two distinct classes of cells:-

  1. LFP of any format is fine (in my opinion). Cheap, high volume.
  2. High-power/nickel cells are better as highly engineered smallish metal cylinders rather than large bags of gas with a lot of energy (pouch).

I don't want to hijack the thread, just wanted to clarify that Tesla have and are making the right engineering decisions for the most critical parts of EVs. This will eventually prove to be another plus for Tesla.
 
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I know we are always disappointed in the growth of Tesla energy, but 30-40% isn't that bad. Maybe we are just spoiled from seeing 80% in Auto for so long. I expect it to increase materially this year either way. I bet it easily breaks 50% YoY into 2022.

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Team MMD wanted to play games today, but the 10 K team is not having it - it seems ;)

BTC above 43 K, seems we are back to Risk-On env. Lot's of money on the side lines ... could cause a FOMO - violent Feb rally anytime.

Hope Macron's "French Fries" :) diplomacy works in Russia/Ukraine .... cheers!!

I for one can't wait to buy at a higher amount than it currently is. :p
 
10-K: "Model Y gross margin has benefitted from shared manufacturing of Model 3 and learnings from the scaling of past products."

My hunch is Tesla is going to leverage their insane 29.3% gross auto margins, the learnings mentioned above, and feature complete FSD to decimate OEMs AND demand for oil. Once FSD is level 4, they could readily drop the cost of a Model Y (without FSD) by 25% and then massively increase the cost of FSD software.

No OEM selling compact SUVs will be competitive if LR AWD Model Y prices drop by 25% ($59k base price -> $44k; or lower if tax credit passes). This will drive massive demand for the Model Y, which Austin, Freemont, Berlin, Shanghai will be able to fill once ramped.

And once all those people who then purchased a Model Y realize how much money they can make by also purchasing FSD and sharing the car with trusted family, friends, or by placing in robotaxi fleet, that will drive margins right back up.

The OEMs will not be able to compete with a $44k Model Y, and this may be Tesla's plan. Go for the jugular, not necessarily to put OEMs out of business, but to make it a no-brainer for people to buy a Tesla, which in turn increases the number of cars capable of being added to the FSD fleet.

However, Tesla could be ruthless and sell Model Y for much less than $44k, say $25k, with the proviso that the owner must agree to release the car into the fleet for some # of hours per week, and agree to allow Tesla to capture the revenue during that time.

Once the new factories are ramped, this could be the card Tesla plays to deal a rapid, fatal blow to ICE vehicles /oil. This will be epic to watch as it plays out.
 
can anyone tell me any reason NOT to be scared after listening to the first 40 min of friday’s all-in pod with guest Ryan Petersen of Flexport
Very disappointed to hear Chamath repeatedly say that Elon Musk has been "selling", for like the last 5-6 episodes. The first time he said it was in the context of a potential market downturn when he said some of the smartest people he knows are selling, including Elon. Of course we all know Elon was only selling to pay taxes so he could buy MORE shares. Elon was not selling Chamath, he was BUYING! Why have Jason, Sacks, and Friedberg not called out Chamath on this error by now ? Surely they all know the facts.
 
I listen to the All-In-Pod every week. Very disappointed to hear Chamath repeatedly say that Elon Musk has been "selling", for like the last 5-6 episodes. The first time he said it was in the context of a potential market downturn when he said some of the smartest people he knows are selling, including Elon. Of course we all know Elon was only selling to pay taxes so he could buy MORE shares. Elon was not selling Chamath, he was BUYING! Why have Jason, Sacks, and Friedberg not called out Chamath on this error by now ? Surely they all know the facts.

I stopped listening to the Pod after that too. The fact that Chamath clearly did not know why Elon was selling (and the fact that he was in fact accumulating $TSLA), added to his persistent "the two smartest guys he knows are selling" - I think the other one he refers to was Satya from MSFT - really made me lose interest in the Pod. That Jason and Sachs who are both friends of Elon didn't call him out just shows that the Pod is at best self-serving to each of the Besties and at worst click-bait.
 
Very disappointed to hear Chamath repeatedly say that Elon Musk has been "selling", for like the last 5-6 episodes. The first time he said it was in the context of a potential market downturn when he said some of the smartest people he knows are selling, including Elon. Of course we all know Elon was only selling to pay taxes so he could buy MORE shares. Elon was not selling Chamath, he was BUYING! Why have Jason, Sacks, and Friedberg not called out Chamath on this error by now ? Surely they all know the facts.
Chamath sold 100%. He's projecting.