chronopublish
2008 Roadster #VP27
Hey now, some of us have much worse ratios than that.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Right now it feels like when you get to the last level of a video game and you have to fight all the bosses from the previous levels again, but at the same time. We've got Russia invading Ukraine, Elon feuding with the SEC, rising interest rates, product delays. All we need is a trio of burning cars and a China stock market crash and it's complete.
One last and final request from a moderator. If you feel a need to say "(is it allowed to mention this here? Mods: feel free to move to the other thread) you already know the answer, and should have posted it in the other thread yourself. Why would I do your work for you? I have better things to do.
And having said that, apparently it is a scam site and we really frown on disinformation here. I deleted the original.
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
There have been valuation arguments on TSLA since day 1, but today is VERY different. Now that profits are pouring in and can be fairly easily projected based on scaling rather than some new product yet to be delivered, we can apply a proper PE ratio.
TSLA had a PE before 4Q earnings, but it was based off 3 quarters of minimal earnings. 8 weeks from now we'll have a half year of legit earnings with which to measure the value of this company.
We've crossed over to massive profits far earlier than expected and it's not being taken into account. If Tesla executes the next 3 quarters in similar fashion to 2021, and the share price stays here, the actual TSLA PE ratio 8 months from now will be ~53.
You can't have a wildly profitable company that's universally agreed to be the forefront of future technological advancement in trandsport and energy AND growing at 80-90% annually AND have a PE of 53. That's like AAPL being worth nothing as the iPhone5 was being released.
So today is very different. We've only had like 20 market days with this kind of info and logic available.
Limiting Factor also made some interesting comments after posting the video, you can see them in the video comments section, or in my post here:-
Investor Engineering Discussions
Center screen is setup to articulate, seems to only be missing the motors.
teslamotorsclub.com
In summary, i think he will have material for a few more videos
No sane person has ever suggested this is likely to be a commercial reality at any specific time. When I posted it originally it was as an example of some potential disruptions at future times. The point, the only point is that unexpected disruptions can and do happen. Somehow someone has imagined thst this might be as likely as, say, solid state or sodium-ion battery cells, both of which are probable quite soon.Thanks for the link. I think it's important for Tesla investors to understand that this fusion accomplishment (by JET, not ITER) is not "huge news" that affects Tesla (or most anyone) for the foreseeable future.
According to the linked article, the Joint European Torus produced an average 11 MW of fusion energy for 5 seconds, after the machine was upgraded (using "4,000 tonnes of metal") to increase "plasma heating capacity from 24 MW to nearly 40 MW." The article doesn't mention how much energy input was required to get the 11 MW output, but it was certainly more than the output, or else the headline would have been net energy production.
Bob would know, since he formerly worked with one of the private fusion companies:
LPPFusion: Zero Emissions, Zero Nuclear Waste | Decentralized Fusion Energy
LPP Fusion is developing a new energy source, modeled on fusion energy that powers our Sun. The energy produced will be environmentally safe for all life on our planet.lppfusion.com
With all of those "market adjustments" that dealers have been tacking on, Ford's distribution costs are much more than $3,000 to $4,000...
I really shook the couches today. Added 50 shares, closed a few September $1800+ covered calls that I wrote back in October and sold the last of my QQQ and SPY put hedges. I sure hope we find a bottom soon.
It could be 60% down or more too. 80% down isn't remotely unheard of for a high beta growth tech issue.
If you're bored, research how many times Apple had a draw down of 60-80% during it's history. Go ahead, I'm not going anywhere.
3 times. Now let’s see if TSLA can beat AAPL or AMZN on those numbers.
« The Risks Of Long-Term Winners
However, the ride for these stocks has seldom been smooth. For example, Apple has lost over 70% of its value three times during the stock’s history. Amazon, another strong performer has fallen by 90% on occasion. This means that substantial peak-to-trough drawdowns are not always a sign of a broken long-term investment thesis. »
Even Multi-Bagger Stocks Arenât Immune To Major Drawdowns, Research Shows
Most investors aspire to hold those stocks that deliver exceptional returns over time. However, even those stocks can have nail biting drawdowns along the way.
www.forbes.com
Yeah but all those companies were losing massive amount of money during the fall. Apple almost went bankrupt after getting rid of Jobs, and Amazon was a capex intensive scrappy nobody during the .com burst and had negative EPS during the financial crisis. Show me a company that's making tens of billions of net income/year with upward guide that has fallen 90%.3 times. Now let’s see if TSLA can beat AAPL often AMZN on those numbers.
« The Risks Of Long-Term Winners
However, the ride for these stocks has seldom been smooth. For example, Apple has lost over 70% of its value three times during the stock’s history. Amazon, another strong performer has fallen by 90% on occasion. This means that substantial peak-to-trough drawdowns are not always a sign of a broken long-term investment thesis. »
Even Multi-Bagger Stocks Arenât Immune To Major Drawdowns, Research Shows
Most investors aspire to hold those stocks that deliver exceptional returns over time. However, even those stocks can have nail biting drawdowns along the way.
It's fine, Ford "is seeking to close that gap by attracting new talent with those skills." /s
How does that fix anything? Hire people to distribute cars more efficiently? So lawyers then?
Yeah, so annoying to see this narrative posted even here. Amazon had a 90% drawdown during a massive tech route (dot.com bubble) where they were posting huge losses. Hell Amazon wasn't even posting 1 billion in revenue per quarter yet. They were a small company.
The largest loss Apple has suffered in the Iphone era has been 50%. And even then, Apple was just ramping the Iphone (impact of Iphone was essentially masked for a couple years until Iphone scale grew large enough). Microsoft went through the same thing with Azure/Office and Windows where it took time for Azure/Office revenue scale to outsize Windows. So effectively you saw Microsoft's "growth" hidden for many years.
Neither of those dynamics are at play here with TSLA. Tesla will post at least 15 billion in earnings this year. And Tesla's growth won't be masked by any legacy part of the company.
The whole market is sliding though, this downtrend isn't just a TSLA thing. And when the whole market rebounds, and it will like it always does, so will TSLA.
I don't know why people crap on this car - Its a great example of low end & new Market disruption - I think its great and Tesla should have a model in this category in China as well (eventually, once they have excess capacity)
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I’m still all in and will remain that way.
My bonus wil be coming in a week or so. Regardless of whether TSLA is above or below its current level at that time, it will all be going into TSLA. Wall St is a shartshow right now. No idea when it turns. Not able to time nonsense. What I do know, is that the story at Tesla is as strong as ever. I know where the stock is headed longer term.
My bonus wil be coming in a week or so. Regardless of whether TSLA is above or below its current level at that time, it will all be going into TSLA. Wall St is a shartshow right now. No idea when it turns. Not able to time nonsense. What I do know, is that the story at Tesla is as strong as ever. I know where the stock is headed longer term.
If this had been the Model 2, how would you feel as an investor? It looks so aerodynamic /s.
And the fact that GM is close to owning this product... actually I was hoping to hear a bit more background on this such as revenue or margins.
Sorry you took it as crapping on GM, I don't feel so great about them lately.
Not 90% bad, but In 2009, Apple lost 61% of its value from peak to trough, a couple of years AFTER the iPhone had launched and it was already earning ~$10 billion in profit and still in its early but proven stages of growing like crazy.
anthonyj
Stonks
Getting close to a bottom for sure
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