Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

The other advantage is that it is a new trim/model such that people can't try to delay their order to get a GigaTexas built Model Y like so many are talking about. They would have to cancel their order and place a new order for the lower range version.

This could also be why they decided to cancel the RWD Model Y.

Good point. Even though I know the masses aren’t buyers that are so involved with Tesla that they would know or care if they got a Austin Y or Fremont Y, it was still going to be a pain in the butt with some people delaying accepting delivery, which ends up costing Tesla money in logistics.

May be an unpopular opinion here, but I’ve always thought that if someone delays accepting delivery for anything other than provable financial reason or defect in their car, then they should pay essentially a “restocking fee”. It’s kinda gotten out of control.

 

[PeterJA]

Lot of discussion going on in Twitter verse about the new Y EPA model. Given that what we’ve seen produced out of Austin so far isn’t Performance trims, at least over the past 3 weeks or so, I think we all assumed those were LR Y’s. Maybe they aren’t……..could be we’re looking at a structural 4680 LFP battery in those.

All of these assumptions I’ve seen for the amount of 4680 cells made so far point to about 1 million cells being enough for 1,100 Y’s. But those assumptions were based on the Y being P or LR trims. What if by doing SR instead, the 1 million cells supports production of 1800-2000 Y’s? Tesla could ramp production much quicker that way.

I find it quite humorous that many on Twitter seem to think it’s a bad business decision choice. They’re misinformed and do not understand the difference between gross margin and operating margin. Tesla has fixed operating costs at Austin. The quicker they can ramp revenue and thus profits to cover the operating costs the better.

If Tesla can only average say 1,000/week of the LR/P version of the 4860 Austin made Y but can do 1800/week by doing LFP 4680 Y, then even if the gross margin is say 10% less, operating margin would be much much better.

Is there any other evidence that Tesla is putting LFP chemistry in 4680 cans? Last I recall reading in this thread, there was not.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Is there any other evidence that Tesla is putting LFP chemistry in 4680 cans? Last I recall reading in this thread, there was not.

Well…..there’s no evidence that they’re using nickel either. It’s just everyone assumed they would. Back at battery day, Tesla clearly stated that 4680 could be used for both nickel and iron phosphate. As far as I’m aware, Tesla has never confirmed that Austin made Y’s would necessarily be nickel based and thus P/LR trims.

But someone correct me if I’m remembering that incorrectly

 

[2daMoon]

Aren't 4680 LFP only known to be installed in unicorns at this point?

Edit: Nod to @PeterJA

 

[gsmith123]

A 279 mile range Model Y could easily potentially be built with LFP or NCA, so there's not a lot to go on here. But I think we can make a good guess.

Here's an argument for nickel based: they've been busy working on the Kato road pilot facility for 4680s. CT and Semi are going to need 4680 nickel cells, so why would they spend any engineering time at this point working on 4680 LFP? Top priority is get 4680 Nickel ramped up, in production, and validated in the real world (and that's sure taken a while and is taking a lot of work).

Thus, it's most likely Austin is using 4680 Nickel cells.

 

[nativewolf]

Aren't 4680 LFP only known to be installed in unicorns at this point?

Edit: Nod to @PeterJA

Well Unicorns need something to make them wonderful, don't be jelly.

 

[AudubonB]

In return for my not deleting normally-quashed posts about Lidar, here is some weekend humor. From the archives, a snap during a trip to Arizona in winter 2018. Shows priorities?

 

[JRP3]

Just a reminder that NCA needs to be in cylindrical form while LFP does not.

 

[gsmith123]

Is it even possible that the 279 mile AWD Model Y is a 2170 LFP pack from CATL or another supplier?

That's been proposed on Twitter, but I'm not sure they can get than much range. Model 3 LFP gets 272 miles and it's rear wheel drive only, so clearly a larger pack would be needed. Can they fit enough LFP cells in to get 279 miles? Would it still be an overall lighter vehicle than the exist AWD Model Y to get the slightly higher efficiency in the EPA listing?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yep, this is like when the Model 3 was limited because of Panasonic having problems making enough good cells so they introduced the Mid-range Model 3 so that they could keep the factory production rate up; producing as many vehicles as possible with the limited number of cells available. Once enough cells were available they discontinued the Mid-range variant.

The other advantage is that it is a new trim/model such that people can't try to delay their order to get a GigaTexas built Model Y like so many are talking about. They would have to cancel their order and place a new order for the lower range version.

This could also be why they decided to cancel the RWD Model Y.

Further thought on, if this is the Austin made Y (which I think is likely, timeline adds up too nicely for it not to be), then this is a brilliant move to counter any Osborne effect from people specifically wanting a Austin made Y.

Even if it is still nickel based 4680, just put fewer cells in the pack with dummies to fill the rest. Higher production rates. It will have plenty of demand but if you want the longest range or performance……well you still gotta order a Fremont made Y. Completely nullifies the Osborne effect of a Austin made Y

 

[gsmith123]

There are suggestions that Tesla should make an extra long range Model Y with 4680s, which seems possible, but I think it's highly unlikely they do that.

They've always been very careful to make sure S and X have the longest ranges. Currently, the longest range X is only 351 miles so there's minimal room for making a longer range Y. Y LR is 330 miles already and performance is 303. They could make a 330-340 mile range Performance but it's extremely unlikely they make a 400+ mile Y.

 

[SOULPEDL]

CyberTruck model has diving controls that fold down completely. A reveal, or common knowledge? I’m all bring on FSD!

 

[Ogre]

Oil producers in the Middle East are worried that high prices will push more people to buy EVs, Iraqi oil minister says

Oil prices are climbing due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has prompted a ban of Russian energy by the US that could lead to higher gas prices.

trib.al

People predicting $200 a barrel of oil should read this once.

A member of cartel which artificially inflates price of oil is worried that high prices will lead to people buying less oil eventually. It’s like an intelligent parasite that realizes if it sucks blood too quickly it will kill the host.

Regardless, he’s mostly wrong.

We are headed down this road. People will continue buying more EVs regardless of whether oil prices drop back down or not. What high oil prices does is give Tesla and other EV makers a bit of breathing room in terms of pricing. Tesla and the existing battery manufacturers will rake it in.

This also gives GM, Ford, and the rest of the industry a little breathing room. As Tesla slurps up massive profits, there is enough of a pricing umbrella these companies can introduce some lower end products and figure this stuff out.

 

[bkp_duke]

Lot of discussion going on in Twitter verse about the new Y EPA model. Given that what we’ve seen produced out of Austin so far isn’t Performance trims, at least over the past 3 weeks or so, I think we all assumed those were LR Y’s. Maybe they aren’t……..could be we’re looking at a structural 4680 LFP battery in those.

All of these assumptions I’ve seen for the amount of 4680 cells made so far point to about 1 million cells being enough for 1,100 Y’s. But those assumptions were based on the Y being P or LR trims. What if by doing SR instead, the 1 million cells supports production of 1800-2000 Y’s? Tesla could ramp production much quicker that way.

I find it quite humorous that many on Twitter seem to think it’s a bad business decision choice. They’re misinformed and do not understand the difference between gross margin and operating margin. Tesla has fixed operating costs at Austin. The quicker they can ramp revenue and thus profits to cover the operating costs the better.

If Tesla can only average say 1,000/week of the LR/P version of the 4860 Austin made Y but can do 1800/week by doing LFP 4680 Y, then even if the gross margin is say 10% less, operating margin would be much much better.

4680 is not getting LFP, per Elon:

Tesla wants to limit battery variety | electrive.com

www.electrive.com

 

[Bet TSLA]

I listened to the first two episodes of the Tesla Motors Club Podcast (TMC Podcast), currently being promoted at the top of every forum page. I can confidently say that it's utterly useless to anybody who follows this thread. The hosts blather on and on about stuff they neither know about nor understand. Even stuff they personally experienced they report incorrectly as often as not. The difference between rumors and truth, stuff they know and stuff they heard, fact and opinion, is mostly alien to them. I don't understand why TMC would bother with such a thing, but I suppose somebody must think it's worth something.

For people who listen to the Tesla Owners Online podcast, it's similar (lack of) quality. If what you want is random chat and blather, you'll like it just fine. Not to say that there aren't occasional bits of information scattered about.

As a data point, I'm a big fan of Rob Maurer.

 

[GrandEnigma]

Welp, this wasn’t my plan for Q2 contributions. Branch fell from neighbors tree during a snow/wind storm. This was after having had my original Y totaled in October. Seems I’ve had better luck just owning TSLA and not a Tesla. Womp.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

FSD as sold today is not a "diluted L5 version" it is explicitly L2, and says so in writing during purchase. Aspirationally the company certainly hopes to and plans to deliver far more- but they don't "owe" you any more per the terms of sale than L2 autosteer on city streets.

The pre 3/19 version was (at least) L4 in writing during purchase (you can debate if it was describing L4 or L5)


So yes- what was promised to 3/19 buyers is significantly greater than post 3/19 buyers for FSD.

But as I said, this only matters if Tesla fails to be able to deliver greater than L2 on current HW (or something reasonable upgradable from current HW like just swapping the driving computer up to HW4 or whatever).

In THAT case the difference will matter as far as who might be owed $ back or some other compensation.

If they succeed at delivering >L2 I expect both sets of buyers will receive the same thing, up to and including L5 if they can achieve it.

So if you are confident they will get to L5 on existing (or reasonable upgrade from current on existing vehicles) HW then trading won't make a difference to you at all.

If you're not, then it might make a difference to you.



Again- the change in wording accomplishes two things:


1) It allows them to recognize all remaining revenue for post 3/19 buyers much sooner (specifically, as soon as they deliver L2 autosteer on city streets- since it's the last specifically promised thing.... they still could NOT recognize 100% of the remaining revenue from pre 3/19 buyers but that's pocket change at this point)

2) It significantly reduces their liability if they decide they're unable to deliver L4 or L5 on current HW.


Folks wanting to argue about how likely #2 is I'd suggest head here- where there's been extensive discussion on that for a long time:

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

Great explanation. Thank you. Learned a little today.

 

[Discoducky]

So, why, do folks think, that all those Model Ys at Giga Texas won't be delivered until April 7th?

Ready, set, go!

(I don't know why)

 

[Ogre]

I listened to the first two episodes of the Tesla Motors Club Podcast (TMC Podcast), currently being promoted at the top of every forum page. I can confidently say that it's utterly useless to anybody who follows this thread. The hosts blather on and on about stuff they neither know about nor understand. Even stuff they personally experienced they report incorrectly as often as not. The difference between rumors and truth, stuff they know and stuff they heard, fact and opinion, is mostly alien to them. I don't understand why TMC would bother with such a thing, but I suppose somebody must think it's worth something.

For people who listen to the Tesla Owners Online podcast, it's similar (lack of) quality. If what you want is random chat and blather, you'll like it just fine. Not to say that there aren't occasional bits of information scattered about.

As a data point, I'm a big fan of Rob Maurer.

Tesla Daily (Rob Maurer) which is quite good for straight news and stock info.
Dave Lee on Investing which is hit or miss. Some truly fantastic stuff mixed with some very blah/ stuff. I keep the skip button handy and have no trouble just skipping whole episodes.
Ride the Lightning is passable. Sometimes the call-in sections are interesting, it’s almost like “Tesla for beginners”, but has some good stuff mixed in.

I’ve tried a few others, but none of them stuck. I will say I do occassionally listen to the Electrek podcast. The daily one which is just a quick rehash of news is ok. The longer one is mostly meh.

 

[Thekiwi]

Is it even possible that the 279 mile AWD Model Y is a 2170 LFP pack from CATL or another supplier?

That's been proposed on Twitter, but I'm not sure they can get than much range. Model 3 LFP gets 272 miles and it's rear wheel drive only, so clearly a larger pack would be needed. Can they fit enough LFP cells in to get 279 miles? Would it still be an overall lighter vehicle than the exist AWD Model Y to get the slightly higher efficiency in the EPA listing?

Tesla has been making the Model SR in China for months already. This US Model Y SR with 278 EPA range compares to the 283 mile WLTP range on the China Model Y SR.