Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

FYI - Tesla Shanghai suppliers are also shutting down temporarily. Might be some stunted on/off production going into beginning of Q2 In Shanghai.

Tesla, GM supplier Aptiv suspends operations in Shanghai amid city’s anti-Covid efforts

Reports have emerged that auto parts maker Aptiv, which supplies carmakers like Tesla and General Motors’ joint venture in China, has suspended its operations at its Shanghai production facility. The shutdown was reportedly due to issues related to the current outbreak of the Covid-19 virus in...

www.teslarati.com

 

[Krugerrand]

Is it just me or does this seem very low? Tesla has been growing production every quarter since Q2 2020 and I expect the same this quarter. Q1 is typically a slow quarter for car sales but demand seems to be at an all time high so I don't expect the slow Q1 to affect Tesla. I do feel sorry for the big SUV manufacturers, with gas prices where they are I don't expect large ICE SUV sales to be doing well.

A big miss by analysts (no surprise there, they've been missing for 10 years) would be another catalyst for an already hot $TSLA

It’s just you. 83,000 is the magic number.

 

[Prunesquallor]

It’s just you. 83,000 is the magic number.

You may have to update your sandbagging number. It’s starting to resemble the GoJo level of ridiculousness.

 

[Artful Dodger]

When will they give up and finally let us back to the 1200s? Those were much better days. Remember? So long ago it seems !

Q. What is the difference between exuberance and patience?
A. Arthritis.

My sister bought TSLA at $880 in Jan 2021 (dawdled while the price went up from $695). Within a few weeks, the "Q1 slide" began and she wasn't above water again until end of September. She didn't sell at any of the peaks in Nov, Dec, or Jan, so just now back above water. But still her TSLA is out-performing the 10.5% expected long-term return from the S&P 500 (by about +10%). So she mostly plays dead, and lets it ride. She'll retire in a few years, so I expect she'll sell some by 2024ish.

Personally, I'm more interested in the long-term success of the Company (the Mission!) than the share price, but I guess the later comes with the former. Either way, my intial investment horizon was ~10 years and I'll have to reconsider that: I maybe missing out on some big gains in the 2030s (TE, FSD, 'bots-on-Mars). Lots of gains to be had in an abundant, clean-energy future!

Cheers!

P.S. I'll publish a 4th Revised Edition of "Lodger's Ten Rules for Investment Success" in about 3 weeks.

 

[Ogre]

Personally, I'm more interested in the long-term success of the Company (the Mission!) than the share price, but I guess the later comes with the former. Either way, my intial investment horizon was ~10 years and I'll have to reconsider that: I maybe missing out on some big gains in the 2030s (TE, FSD, 'bots-on-Mars). Lots of gains to be had in an abundant, clean-energy future!

If I had to make a choice of either long term success of the company or the share price, I'd pick both every time.

It's Tesla so cheating the normal rules is allowed.

 

[Artful Dodger]

FIRST deliveries of 'Made in Germany' Model Y outside Berlin | (1 hr ago)

By our own @avoigt

Cheers!

 

[Big Time]

Perhaps this was another one of those days where TSLA lags behind a day or two, and will soon correct itself into ATH =D
Im thinking Monday morning ATH? Ill get some snacks and popcorn ready.
Like Frank Costanza once said "YOU WANNA PEICE OF ME?!?!"

-Tenderly
Big Time

 

[Gigapress]

Is it just me or does this [320k Wall St delivery estimate] seem very low? Tesla has been growing production every quarter since Q2 2020 and I expect the same this quarter. Q1 is typically a slow quarter for car sales but demand seems to be at an all time high so I don't expect the slow Q1 to affect Tesla. I do feel sorry for the big SUV manufacturers, with gas prices where they are I don't expect large ICE SUV sales to be doing well.

A big miss by analysts (no surprise there, they've been missing for 10 years) would be another catalyst for an already hot $TSLA

It seems very low to me too.

@StarFoxisDown! had good analysis two weeks ago predicting 335k-345k deliveries.

It will be very embarrassing for Wall Street analysts when the earnings report drops and their ludicrous $11 earnings per share estimates for 2022 are already surpassed in Q1 (on an annualized basis), even with Q1 being the weakest seasonal quarter and no contribution from the new factories yet.

 

[Sofie]

Q. What is the difference between exuberance and patience?
A. Arthritis.

My sister bought TSLA at $880 in Jan 2021 (dawdled while the price went up from $695). Within a few weeks, the "Q1 slide" began and she wasn't above water again until end of September. She didn't sell at any of the peaks in Nov, Dec, or Jan, so just now back above water. But still her TSLA is out-performing the 10.5% expected long-term return from the S&P 500 (by about +10%). So she mostly plays dead, and lets it ride. She'll retire in a few years, so I expect she'll sell some by 2024ish.

Personally, I'm more interested in the long-term success of the Company (the Mission!) than the share price, but I guess the later comes with the former. Either way, my intial investment horizon was ~10 years and I'll have to reconsider that: I maybe missing out on some big gains in the 2030s (TE, FSD, 'bots-on-Mars). Lots of gains to be had in an abundant, clean-energy future!

Cheers!

P.S. I'll publish a 4th Revised Edition of "Lodger's Ten Rules for Investment Success" in about 3 weeks.

Yeah yeah yeah I know I know I know lol. Always buying never selling…I don’t even think I know how to sell stock I’ve never done it before hahaha!!!

 

[geometro]

FYI - Tesla Shanghai suppliers are also shutting down temporarily. Might be some stunted on/off production going into beginning of Q2 In Shanghai.

Tesla, GM supplier Aptiv suspends operations in Shanghai amid city’s anti-Covid efforts

Reports have emerged that auto parts maker Aptiv, which supplies carmakers like Tesla and General Motors’ joint venture in China, has suspended its operations at its Shanghai production facility. The shutdown was reportedly due to issues related to the current outbreak of the Covid-19 virus in...

www.teslarati.com

Good timing for them to open additional factories!

 

[Krugerrand]

You may have to update your sandbagging number. It’s starting to resemble the GoJo level of ridiculousness.

Okay. 283,000. Spread the word.

 

[Nocturnal]

The IDRA 9000 ton gigapress (for Cybertruck) will be on display this summer at the IDRA open house

So that means Tesla won't get it until however long it takes them to take it apart, ship it, and reassemble it?

Late Q1 2023 for the CT it is then.

 

[ggies07]

New interview with JB. Man, there's no other company besides Tesla I want to invest heavily in than Redwood Materials. They are a couple. Yin and Yang. Circle of Life.

 

[StealthP3D]

What's so important about protecting $1100.00 on a Tuesday?

Oh, because you know how those TSLA bulls are, give us an inch and we'll turn it into a mile. They must start early and often by tamping it down whenever possible. When that is no longer working then, and only then, will they buy a bunch, kicking off another free-for-all. But then they have a bunch of real shares to sell at a profit and feed the next downdraft. It's like free money because they are running the markets. The markets are transparent to them. It's like taking candy from a kid.

Market Makers have a license to trade and make money. That's why regular folks should buy and hold. Non market makers with enough cash (hundreds of millions or more) can play some of the same games with two distinct disadvantages:
1) They are not market makers and thus have fewer tools with which to manipulate the market. The markets are as transparent as can be to market makers and only to market makers.
2) The SEC only works for market makers, not billionaire freestylers (they will prosecute folks that get too big while protecting and enabling the market maker shenanigans).

I'm not saying small players can't make big money trading stocks, I'm saying this explains why the success rate of that is so low. It's like trying to swim upstream. You need to always be on the lookout for the next back-eddy and sprint like hell everywhere else. Not really worth it. Market makers make money consistently and regularly - it's what the rules are set up to allow them to do. They are the ultimate traders and it goes far beyond taking a small slice of every trade. Don't try to compete with that in the short term!

 

[JRP3]

By our own @avoigt

Alex is Lars?

 

[Dutchie]

My dad came to visit us from the Netherlands two weeks ago. Since he has been here TSLA went up more than 42%. Asked him to stay a little longer..

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Market makers make money consistently and regularly - it's what the rules are set up to allow them to do. They are the ultimate traders and it goes far beyond taking a small slice of every trade. Don't try to compete with that in the short term!

It's also why Ken Griffin owns the Cubs and soon Chelsea, can afford to divorce a bunch of wives, donate tens of millions to right-wing super PACs and still sit on about $22B.

These clowns literally own the market and are essentially unregulated.

 

[Artful Dodger]

FIRST deliveries of 'Made in Germany' Model Y outside Berlin | (1 hr ago)

By our own @avoigt

Cheers!

Pardon, the above video is not from @avoigt its BestInTESLA by Lars Strandridder.

Apologies for any confusion.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

So that means Tesla won't get it until however long it takes them to take it apart, ship it, and reassemble it?

Late Q1 2023 for the CT it is then.

No, the demo is for the newer 9,000 ton gigapress. Tesla (via Elon's statement) will use an 8,000 ton gigapress for Cybertruck.

The 9KT g-press could be for a 1-piece complete casting for 'Model 2' in Shanghai in 2023, or it could be for Tesla Semi (less likely I think).

Least likely IMO is 9KT for a customer other than Tesla.

Cherubs!

 

[S3XY]

The heads up was much appreciated. Still, I’m pretty sure you could have explained the previous with pictures. I suggest pizza pictures. That worked real well when TSLA split and in understanding why Tesla wouldn’t be worth more after it.

So imagine a slice of pizza that you have to give back in three years. No, that won't help.