Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Spotted a whale... some volume too

(Edit; And capped again. It keeps trying anyway to break that 1,100. Also, where is everyone?)

 

[ThisStockGood]

Spotted a whale... some volume too

(Edit; And capped again. It keeps trying anyway to break that 1,100. Also, where is everyone?)

I'm here. Just working on gifs. Gotta be prepared for breaking 1,200.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Hey guess what?? We're at 1100! Shocking!

 

[betstarship]

I'm here. Just working on gifs. Gotta be prepared for breaking 1,200.

/me starts refreshing repeatedly

 

[Artful Dodger]

Super low volume, macro down day....still can't get a respectable MMD going. Shameful.

Meh. Looked like a pretty decent MMD to me:

Spotted a whale... some volume too

(Edit; And capped again. It keeps trying anyway to break that 1,100.)

Likely $1,100 Strike Call holders pushing the SP up so they can execute their Options in the money. If contracts sold to close, MMs reflexively sell shares. Hence the "lawn-dart" effect we see frequently in the charts (a.k.a. spike).

Cheers!

 

[SOULPEDL]

You'd think 1,200 is right around the corner. Extra FOMO before P&D results this weekend?
Honestly, this is where HODLing gets hard. As we head back to 1,200, my learning brain wants me wants to sell this time.
(Then there's Bob.)

 

[Drumheller]

While unlikely due to logistics, it would be amusing if Tesla released Q1 production and delivery numbers pre-market tomorrow.

 

[Big Time]

Not sure if I missed it but I have not seen or heard anything about Elons "end of quarter delivery rush" email yet. So perhaps they in that comfy zone.

 

[woodisgood]

Hard to see Q1 P/D being a big stock mover unless deliveries are under 310 or over 330k.

 

[viridi]

What a surprise, TSLA stuck around $1,100.

Volume is so light that the spoofers are having no trouble capping TSLA (very small sell orders that are being put in and pulled are working). Would be great to get some volume to steamroll them.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Hard to see Q1 P/D being a big stock mover unless deliveries are under 310 or over 330k.

Yeah, I don't really see it doing much. A surprise to the upside would have to be massive for Wall Street to move at all. Perhaps a relief rally kind of thing if the number isn't below expectations, confirming EPS will be pretty nuts for 1Q.

Earnings are going to be the big slap in the face IMO.....but I'm almost never right about these events and SP movement. Regardless, I subscribe to the @StarFoxisDown! theory of PE compression being way ahead of itself for a company with this much growth. That means we're not allowed to tread water 600-1200 anymore, the actual historical PE would be absolutely absurd in a matter of months.

So it's a waiting game. TSLA doesn't move smoothly and rationally. The next move will be violent and take us to the 1200-2000 range because Wall Street can't have a 90% growth company with a PE of 60. That move could happen any time between this afternoon and Halloween. I guess you could argue that it's already happening as we're up 43% in a little over two weeks. We shall see!

 

[SOULPEDL]

While unlikely due to logistics, it would be amusing if Tesla released Q1 production and delivery numbers pre-market tomorrow.

My hunch (wish anyway) is that Tesla wants to snag the shorts, but not cause too much stock shift that their talented employees retire early - a double edged sword. So what about a large positive spike in price (the shorty flush), followed by some settling so they don't give the employees enough time to quit before another "The stock is too high" tweet.

So what's that news to trigger the short squeeze? Does it happen on earnings day given all the high end Tesla pics I'm seeing here (margin story)? Perhaps FSD is about to be unleashed somewhere in the world. No matter, this is the best movie ever, and it feels like the climax is soon.

From the Street (locally):
Seems the stories that support Tesla and expose GM and others are growing. (Pretty hard to hide Tesla for what it is.)

Here's one from a friend, wife is at Corporate Ford. He thinks Ford's new strategy is just to sell fewer vehicles at higher prices. This from a Ford family still waiting for their Mach-e. So even they're seeing some rips in the fabric.

Meanwhile, I called Allstate for my chipped Model Y glass (Az ). He repeatedly said "Tesla's a prick" and gave me a number to call 3rd party. (We get along great, he's just being straight with me with some sideways anger). Then he tells me he's retiring this summer to do some RV travelling. So I conclude he likely doesn't care what happens to the insurance industry. Just wait until he sees gas prices to fill an RV! I wish him all the best, he's actually getting out in time I think.

 

[Ogre]

So what's that news to trigger the short squeeze? Does it happen on earnings day given all the high end Tesla pics I'm seeing here (margin story)? Perhaps FSD is about to be unleashed somewhere in the world. No matter, this is the best movie ever, and it feels like the climax is soon.

Cybertruck production starting in July!

That'll fix em shorts.


There may be a little wish fulfillment involved in this post. Just a tad.

 

[Berles]

Also doing my part to help those Q1 numbers. Picked up this past weekend after holding my reservation for nearly 2 years! LR with FSD.

My SO has a first run 2020 Model Y and while I still love that car, the build quality on my 2022 is superb. Definitely feels more solid and premium.

 

[Gigapress]

$100 billion 2023 net income is now what my model is projecting. WTF. Please help me if I've lost my mind.

I'll put out a detailed post soon, but here's the overview:

Auto
I derived the following numbers by looking at:

• Expected product mix
• Current Tesla.com prices
• Estimates of take rate for FSD and paint/wheels/interior/tow hitch extras
• Price increase trends
• COGS trends and expected savings minus increased material costs and inflation
• Manufacturing volume trends and upcoming factory capacity

Avg Price	$ 72k
Avg COGS	$ 35k
Avg Gross Profit per Vehicle	$ 37k
Gross Margin	51%
Deliveries	3.6 M
Total Gross Profit	$ 133B

Energy
This is necessarily more uncertain than auto because we have less information to go off of, but the Lathrop Megapack facility will be online and hopefully at scale by 2023.

Storage Deployment (GWh)	40
Gross Profit ($$ billions per GWh)	$0.12
Energy Profit ($$ billions)	$5

Whole Business

Gross Profit	$ 138B
Operating Expenses	$ 12B
Net Income before income tax	$ 126B
After 21% tax	$ 100B
Earnings per share	$ 88

Sensitivity analysis shows by far the most important uncertainty is for delivery volume and FSD take rate. Both of these have wide possible ranges and both majorly impact profits.

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. I AM NOT A PROFESSIONAL.

 

[adiggs]

The reality is that someone needs to go park in that less desirable lot today. If you can't afford a new Tesla, keep driving your old car, whatever it is, for a few more years. In the meantime, Tesla will use that extra revenue to scale up production at top speed. When Tesla scale production fast enough both wait times and prices will come down. It's just a matter of time.

Just an observation about Tesla scaling production fast enough - that has really been the dominant issue for Tesla for 10 years of being production constrained. The degree of constraint has varied but Tesla hasn't yet been in a situation where they didn't sell every car they make, fast.

My wife and I were at service / delivery center here in Portland and got to talking Tesla with (I think) the manager of the location. I learned that Tesla is no longer restocking showrooms with cars as people on really long delivery times (such as that manager and the Model X he awaits ) were making the rather obvious point that why should people waiting 6+ months for cars have to wait even longer while Tesla makes cars to sell more cars.

Good point .


A dynamic that was really obvious in the early Model S days was that building 1 Model S did not have the net effect of satisfying 1 unit of demand. Instead that 1 Model S would show up in a neighborhood, neighbors would come have a look see; maybe get a test drive from the owner. And soon after there would be 3 or 5 Model S's in the neighborhood. The more cars that were sold, the even more demand that appeared.

I think we're seeing that dynamic at work right now, as more Model Y/3s that get sold, the more that people get exposed and the more demand there is to buy.

The production constraint is real, but it isn't new. It IS more dramatic and obvious right now than I recall anytime other than the early years, but its always been there. The MBA schools are going to have a new case study, though what students will do with the incremental study about a manufacturing company in constant production constraint for a decade is beyond me. I know of no other manufacturing company that has experienced this problem (and it is a [first world] problem). Buyers on a schedule can't buy a new Tesla - they aren't available, and then they do come available it can be sudden.

Our chiropractor has been in the queue for a Model X for 6+ months and 2 updates back was told it'd be another 6 months. Then they got a call a few weeks back and their car was ready for delivery. Almost no warning on a 6ish month wait. They were able to handle that no problem - plenty of buyers couldn't take on that initial wait, nor could they react to a sudden "get your financing in order - we're ready to deliver now".

 

[WADan]

Just an observation about Tesla scaling production fast enough - that has really been the dominant issue for Tesla for 10 years of being production constrained. The degree of constraint has varied but Tesla hasn't yet been in a situation where they didn't sell every car they make, fast.

My wife and I were at service / delivery center here in Portland and got to talking Tesla with (I think) the manager of the location. I learned that Tesla is no longer restocking showrooms with cars as people on really long delivery times (such as that manager and the Model X he awaits ) were making the rather obvious point that why should people waiting 6+ months for cars have to wait even longer while Tesla makes cars to sell more cars.

Good point .


A dynamic that was really obvious in the early Model S days was that building 1 Model S did not have the net effect of satisfying 1 unit of demand. Instead that 1 Model S would show up in a neighborhood, neighbors would come have a look see; maybe get a test drive from the owner. And soon after there would be 3 or 5 Model S's in the neighborhood. The more cars that were sold, the even more demand that appeared.

I think we're seeing that dynamic at work right now, as more Model Y/3s that get sold, the more that people get exposed and the more demand there is to buy.

The production constraint is real, but it isn't new. It IS more dramatic and obvious right now than I recall anytime other than the early years, but its always been there. The MBA schools are going to have a new case study, though what students will do with the incremental study about a manufacturing company in constant production constraint for a decade is beyond me. I know of no other manufacturing company that has experienced this problem (and it is a [first world] problem). Buyers on a schedule can't buy a new Tesla - they aren't available, and then they do come available it can be sudden.

Our chiropractor has been in the queue for a Model X for 6+ months and 2 updates back was told it'd be another 6 months. Then they got a call a few weeks back and their car was ready for delivery. Almost no warning on a 6ish month wait. They were able to handle that no problem - plenty of buyers couldn't take on that initial wait, nor could they react to a sudden "get your financing in order - we're ready to deliver now".

My neighbor picked up his X plaid yesterday too. Originally he didn’t think he was getting it until September timeframe, maybe they prioritize the plaid version.

 

[Gigapress]

The MBA schools are going to have a new case study, though what students will do with the incremental study about a manufacturing company in constant production constraint for a decade is beyond me. I know of no other manufacturing company that has experienced this problem (and it is a [first world] problem).

Ford Model T, circa 1910-1920.

 

[woodisgood]

My neighbor picked up his X plaid yesterday too. Originally he didn’t think he was getting it until September timeframe, maybe they prioritize the plaid version.

I drive by a local delivery center daily and always glance at the vehicles queued up in the delivery appointment parking spots. Seemed like a fair number of Xs in those spots the last few weeks…even 50% some days. Anecdotal, but possibly relevant.

 

[Knightshade]

$100 billion 2023 net income is now what my model is projecting. WTF. Please help me if I've lost my mind.

[TD]Gross Margin[/TD]
[TD]51%[/TD]

[TD]Deliveries[/TD]
[TD]3.6 M[/TD]

Auto gross margin was 30.6% in Q4 (up from 30.5% in Q3)-- how are you getting to 51% gross margin next year?

Also, deliveries are projected to be 1.6-1.8 million this year... how are you getting to 3.6 million next year?