Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

In the case of your second sentence, however, the full story is somewhat worse than the truth as you write. That is, for some time now automakers - assuredly in cahoots with dealers - have written their auto manuals in such a fashion as to make it seem as though what @Artful Dodger is the truth. In other words, they're dissembling; they're tergiversating. And there is a special place in Hell for those.

I expect it's certainly possible there's SOME legacy car manuals written as you suggest- but that does not appear to be the case here.


Having not had to read a legacy car manual for some years now I was curious how accurate this was, so I checked.

Specifically I looked at the Ioniq electric manual since that was the car mentioned.

The only mention of warranty as relates to maintenance is this:

Improper owner maintenance during the warranty period may affect warranty coverage.

For details, read the separate Service Passport provided with the vehicle. If you're unsure about any service or maintenance procedure, have it done by an authorized HYUNDAI dealer.

So it's only suggesting a dealer if you're unsure how to do it otherwise.



Checking that other document, the service passport, it simply says you must do the scheduled maintenance and stamp the history coupons in the book by someone qualified to do the work OR your dealer and that you must keep records of the work.

The only time it says ANYTHING about requiring a dealer to do work is, specifically, work covered by the warranty. Which AFAIK standard for everyone- Tesla included.



I think there's any number of issues with the legacy/dealer model... but "they force you to pay them for maintenance or they void your warranty" is flat out not one of them- nor would doing so even be legal (in the US anyway- and I'd be surprised if consumer protections aren't as robust in at least the EU and Canada--- dunno about AP region)



Anyway, thinking maybe further posts on this (if any are needed) best fit would here?

Tesla BEV Competition Developments

Sandy looks at the suspension and subframe of the Rivian

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[StealthP3D]

Last night my wife and I are watching NBC and in between the many drug commercials they played a Hyundai Ioniq commercial

Wife: "Looks like its time to sell the Tesla Stock"

Me: [triggered]

Me: "No way! They have to pay for advertising! Tesla doesn't even have to pay for commercials, that's an advantage!"

Wife: "OMG, you're totally brainwashed"

Me: "What? That's a reason Tesla is able to make more money"

Wife: "Yeah right." [mocking me] 'Tesla is gonna be 100% of the market, blah blah"

Me: "Lol I didn't say that. But I think they will be able to maintain their share of the EV market"

Wife: "I've talked to people at work. They say they are going to wait for EVs from the brands they like"

Me: "Some might, but there won't even be that many EVs available from other companies"

Wife: "You sound like nut. I can't believe we have all our money tied up in this stock"

And then...

Wife: "You know, what don't you just go

S
E
C

!"

Tell your wife she should consider herself lucky that TSLA is your mistress. But, if she prefers, you are willing to take a real mistress, a smart one who understands the true value of TSLA.

 

[scubastevo80]

Last night my wife and I are watching NBC and in between the many drug commercials they played a Hyundai Ioniq commercial

Wife: "Looks like its time to sell the Tesla Stock"

Me: [triggered]

Me: "No way! They have to pay for advertising! Tesla doesn't even have to pay for commercials, that's an advantage!"

Wife: "OMG, you're totally brainwashed"

Me: "What? That's a reason Tesla is able to make more money"

Wife: "Yeah right." [mocking me] 'Tesla is gonna be 100% of the market, blah blah"

Me: "Lol I didn't say that. But I think they will be able to maintain their share of the EV market"

Wife: "I've talked to people at work. They say they are going to wait for EVs from the brands they like"

Me: "Some might, but there won't even be that many EVs available from other companies"

Wife: "You sound like nut. I can't believe we have all our money tied up in this stock"

And then...

Wife: "You know, what don't you just go

S
E
C

!"

My wife makes similar comments about my case for TSLA and is quick to point out headlines like "Tesla Killer" or that there's so many electric cars coming. When and in what volume is the key in my opinion.

My father sold his SR+ two months ago for a profit, but then decided they needed another car. He looked at Lexus, then saw gas prices and moved back to electric. His options - Model 3 (reserved before the last price increase but delivery time is May/June), Polestar (fully spec'd out, no FWD or cars without higher end packages available), Hyundai IONIQ (local dealer said he'd get in Q2 2023 if he's lucky), Ford Mach-E (not available for months and dealers want a premium).

If general vehicle demand still exceeds supply due to supply chain issues, then low-margin electric cars will not be legacy auto's focus. The legacy auto industry is not in a great position when competing with Tesla at present due to its slow-moving, cost intensive structure. Those advertisements my wife refers to about "upcoming EVs with great specs" hold about as much weight with me as our 3-ply Ultra-Soft Charmin.

 

[AudubonB]

Are signatures exempt? If not I have been flagrantly in violation with use of the abbreviation VIN.

"VIN", however, is an acronym......




yaah, it's an abbreviation as well, but then, most acronyms are.

 

[Nocturnal]

If general vehicle demand still exceeds supply due to supply chain issues, then low-margin electric cars will not be legacy auto's focus. The legacy auto industry is not in a great position when competing with Tesla at present due to its slow-moving, cost intensive structure. Those advertisements my wife refers to about "upcoming EVs with great specs" hold about as much weight with me as our 3-ply Ultra-Soft Charmin.

We are going to see legacy auto back track even on their fairly low production goals because of the battery mineral crunch. Mark my words.

The haters are so funny when they talk about how some EV is "so much better than a Tesla because blah blah". When I ask them if enough will be made to make a difference in Tesla sales they never seem to have an answer. Tesla could have the WORST EVs and they would still dominate the industry because of scale.

 

[ninpb]

Wife: "Looks like its time to sell the Tesla Stock"

Offer to buy her half of the shares as of today's price.

 

[The Accountant]

Thing is, apparantly its extremely difficult to buy and hold even a portion of your stock. One actually bought and hold, and is quite happy right now. The other two decided to exit their positions to secure a measly profit in order to get back in cheaper at a later point, or because they felt the need to buy other stock instead (now deep in the red). While doing so, they kept asking me for advice, which was, and I quote: "DO NOT EXIT COMPLETELY, YOU WILL REGRET IT". So, one of them is still waiting for a good entry point (yes, really), and the other lucked out and actually caught a downswing purchase. No matter how many times I tell him that this doesn't work in the long run, he should just buy and hold part of his investment, he welcomes my wisdom and then does the opposite.

This article by Akre Capital has been posted several times in this thread. I'll post it again for the newcomers and as a refresher for all of us.
This article points out the wisdom about "Time in the Market" as opposed to "Timing the Market"
This is one of my favorite pieces on investing:
The Art of (Not) Selling

The first 2 sentences of the article:
"Of our most costly mistakes over the years, almost all have been sell decisions. The mistake, in virtually every instance, has been selling too soon."

 

[Coolio2000]

Why use YOUR money that could be making way more than 3-5% annually to pay for the house, when you can use the banks money at 3-5%?

I was thinking about doing this as well and paying off my house and all debt. It would allow me to work part time until I decide to retire. The problem is the 10% penalty in my 401k, but would net a huge quality of life benefit. Taxes would be at 50%, and I would have to sell around 15% of my holdings. $2000 a share is my goal.

 

[Ogre]

Wow! If someone has to sell it all just to buy a Taycan, either they are a real newbie here or they were far too conservative and didn't understand Elon Musk and Tesla when it was a no-brainer less than three years ago at $36/share.

For the record, a few days ago I told my brother TSLA was still a no-brainer at $1000.

**ME** Sees references to a particularly silly post which is missing. Checks date. Umm Hmm.

FWIW, I was late to the party and not long ago only owned about a Taycan's worth of Tesla. But would never consider selling shares to buy a car unless it was part of my retirement. Well... or my Cybertruck. In neither case would it be **all**.

 

[Artful Dodger]

OT:

Spoiler: TRANSPORTER-4 Mission in 15 min

Transporter-4 Mission
Scheduled for 4/1/22, 12:15 PM EDT

EDIT:

Spoiler: B1061 sticks the landing

 

[Sancho]

My wife makes similar comments about my case for TSLA and is quick to point out headlines like "Tesla Killer" or that there's so many electric cars coming. When and in what volume is the key in my opinion.

My father sold his SR+ two months ago for a profit, but then decided they needed another car. He looked at Lexus, then saw gas prices and moved back to electric. His options - Model 3 (reserved before the last price increase but delivery time is May/June), Polestar (fully spec'd out, no FWD or cars without higher end packages available), Hyundai IONIQ (local dealer said he'd get in Q2 2023 if he's lucky), Ford Mach-E (not available for months and dealers want a premium).

If general vehicle demand still exceeds supply due to supply chain issues, then low-margin electric cars will not be legacy auto's focus. The legacy auto industry is not in a great position when competing with Tesla at present due to its slow-moving, cost intensive structure. Those advertisements my wife refers to about "upcoming EVs with great specs" hold about as much weight with me as our 3-ply Ultra-Soft I

I wish, for me, it was only my wife sending me FUD articles. Most of my friends also know I own multiple Tesla cars and TSLA stock. Every time Musk tweets something offensive to someone, or a piece of negative press makes the rounds, I get multiple texts and emails, often with no comment other than forwarding the article.

You would think that, after Musk became so rich and successful, they’d change their tune, but I’ve long stopped hoping for that.

This forum is a support group for those of us who are ridiculed by our social circles as Musk Fanboys.

At least we have each other.

 

[LightngMcQueen]

Lots of good news here today, once we got through the initial Apple Fools section.

If anyone didn't see the Raoul Pal interview, Electrified has some good excerpts. Of particular interest was the analysis from Holan, where their model shows TSLA current share value as being over $3000.

Raoul Pal runs RealVision channel, frequently hosting many hedge funds guests.

Here is their production from 2019:

"Tesla: Electric Noise"
" Tesla is more than just an electric car company — it represents our obsession with Silicon Valley and celebrity culture, the promise of green energy and AI, the corrosive impact of social media, and a roaring stock market that could soon come crashing down. Filmed from August 2018 to March 2019 in New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles and other locations."

https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-big-story/videos/tesla-electric-noise

I remember re-watching it several times in 2019 to try to see what it is that I am missing ... I mean I had my share of small disappointments with both my 'made in tent' M3 and multi year performance shares (TSLA, Solar City) but what Real Vision was portraying was literally an order of magnitude off.

Watching it over and over I've realized that while TSLA risk is real, WS significantly overprices this risk and I've doubled down on my TSLA investment. This clearly was a disastrous choice, which significantly affected my life ... for example right now instead of putting billable hours I waste my Friday morning as non-billable time on the Internet forums

Anyway - Raul Paul is now praising Tesla? ... it maybe Bearish signal

 

[Phobi]

Anybody else get this?

Today, Transport Canada advised me of a recall on my 2018 Model 3, a seat belt warning. Uh-oh.

But read on:

"Tesla remedied the noncompliance with a free over-the-air (“OTA”) software update that corrects the software error."

So basically, Transport Canada is warning me - via Tesla - about a problem my manufacturer has already fixed.

Will the benefits never cease!

View attachment 788754

Yup, got that email this morning as well

As far as referring others to TSLA, I’ve tried my best to just funnel news and stats on adoption rates to soften the mindset of others. In the end though as the saying goes with Elon: “Making soldiers, not sheep” unless they are willing to put in the time to research and buy into the sweet, sweet kool aid we’re drinking…there is a good chance they’ll end up stressing out and selling early.

Btw: one more @1069.69 for good measure

Name of the game is conviction. HODL.

 

[Knightshade]

I was thinking about doing this as well and paying off my house and all debt. It would allow me to work part time until I decide to retire. The problem is the 10% penalty in my 401k, but would net a huge quality of life benefit. Taxes would be at 50%, and I would have to sell around 15% of my holdings. $2000 a share is my goal.

I'm just pointing out you can, relatively easily, get a 25-50% annual return on that money, versus paying off the mortgage which only gets you the equivalent of a 3-5% return (no longer paying the interest on the mortgage). Doubly the case if you'd be paying a 10% penalty to avoid a 5% mortgage.

Which, especially compounded, could probably let you work 0 time a lot sooner.

But if you want to know more I'd suggest you head over to the "other" thread.


(disclaimer- might not be the case if it's in a 401k, but then I haven't seen a 401k that lets you hold shares of individual stock either so your 2k/share comment in context of a 401k is a bit confusing-- if you mean IRA then what I said still holds)

 

[LightngMcQueen]

People confuse volatility with risk (a confusion that modern financial management / advice is based on, so its not hard to see why) and see huge volatility in TSLA share price.

Volatility is the Risk - if you use any form of leverage: margin, options.

Don't ask me how I know.

Edit:
Volatility is also Risk if your time horizon does not approach infinity.
For example TSLA in college fund of High Schooler might not be a good choice, while TSLA in college fund of pre-schooler is a better choice.

 

[ZeApelido]

Adam Jonas out with a new note:

 

[Nocturnal]

Adam Jonas out with a new note:

I'm expecting a PT increase from him soon. He has been pumping out these very bullish notes as of late.

 

[Mengy]

I'm expecting a PT increase from him soon. He has been pumping out these very bullish notes as of late.

I feel like Adam sees the writing on the wall and has accepted it. Namely that Tesla is much, much more than just a car company.

 

[Zero CO2]

First, it's not an acronym but an abbreviation - I'd not have said that but you're questioning me. Second, it is a matter of pride that this thread encompasses a very large number of non-Americans and non-native English speakers, and common courtesy should prevail. Third, it's a rule of this thread.

"VIN", however, is an acronym......




yaah, it's an abbreviation as well, but then, most acronyms are.

now i need to keep this going " initialism" since we are now nitpicking

 

[H Mak]

I feel like Adam sees the writing on the wall and has accepted it. Namely that Tesla is much, much more than just a car company.

About time. I suppose we should be thankful he's no longer asking for satellite dishes to be mounted on the top of cars