Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

So the first Austin MY deliveries went to employees. And you can't order one on the Tesla site. The obvious conclusion is that 4680 still has a ways to go before it is ramped enough to allow orders.

I think that after all the employees who want one get their cars, they still won't be making enough 4680's to allow ordering. Tesla will just start selling these limited MY 4680 cars from inventory. They will go fast, so get those bots ready to snag one.

Safety related to cooling seems to be the last concern with the 4680. Elon likely wants several million miles on these before the wider public has access.

 

[thx1139]

I'd agree except for the fact the pink wrapped dual motor Model Y on the factory floor stated it was a "Model Y Standard" in the UI inside the car, and it appeared to have a top range of about 270 miles or so. So some new version of the MY does appear to exist, at a minimum in prototype form.

My hunch is this new MY Standard will be the initial 4680 car, sold as a new version so it can easily be differentiated from the Fremont MY LR and MY P.

I only suspect they havent made an announcement yet

I thought they'd already published stats that showed autopilot being safer than humans a while back. I don't think they've reached the 10x safer metric that Musk has long said would be the tipping point (when no one would be able to deny that its safer, so therefore it will get wide public approval and regulatory approval), but I think they've already shown at least 2x safer.

Autopilot not FSDBeta

 

[Todd Burch]

The press wasn’t allowed inside, I believe.

Plus, the press doesn't really understand...um...anything...about manufacturing.

 

[bkp_duke]

Tesla just showed the world the most advanced factory on the planet, with incredible vertical integration. Materials in, cars out. Meanwhile other car companies are buying motors and batteries from third party suppliers (not to mention software) and building them at 1/3 the rate of Tesla. The profit margins will be class leading by a huge margin. I honestly can't believe we aren't 10% green in pre-market. But then again, I have made $Millions with my TSLA investments because I saw and understood the obvious long, long, long before everyone else on Wall Street.

It's all about the macro (again) today.

 

[thx1139]

Since we had clarification that the single lien is capable of ramping to 500,000 Model Y per year it seems unlikely there will b another Model Y line in Austin. The now unoccupied space will certainly include Cybertruck. Chances are the Semi and Roadster may not be built in that building, but AFAIK there has been no explicit statement about that.

Where did we get that clarification? Last night? Is that what Elon meant? I thought Shanghai had multiple Model Y lines and isnt at 500K per year on Model Y yet. Of course not 4680 Model Ys.

 

[StealthP3D]

So the first Austin MY deliveries went to employees. And you can't order one on the Tesla site. The obvious conclusion is that 4680 still has a ways to go before it is ramped enough to allow orders.

I think that after all the employees who want one get their cars, they still won't be making enough 4680's to allow ordering. Tesla will just start selling these limited MY 4680 cars from inventory. They will go fast, so get those bots ready to snag one.

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I can't figure out why, from the perspective of an auto consumer, so many people think the 4680 cells will be all that different from 2170 cells which are proven safe, durable and powerful and fast to charge.. The 2170's are proven to be these things over years and have low risk. Of course, I think the 4680's will prove to be all these things too, but the single biggest advantage of 4680 cells is the lower cost to manufacture. Obviously, there are other benefits but it's not like you will be driving down the road saying "Wow, gee whiz, feel how strong and nice these 4680 cells feel compared to those plebian 2170's."

It certainly wouldn't make me change my car buying schedule if I needed a new car.

 

[elasalle]

Max Pain 1060 for the manip today.

Added a few 4/15 1100 Calls for Monday pop

 

[AKAlex]

I can't figure out why, from the perspective of an auto ,consumer, so many people think the 4680 cells will be all that different from 2170 cells which are proven safe, durable and powerful and fast to charge.. The 2170's are proven to be these things over years and have low risk. Of course, I think the 4680's will prove to be all these things too, but the single biggest advantage of 4680 cells is the lower cost to manufacture. Obviously, there are other benefits but it's not like you will be driving down the road saying "Wow, gee whiz, feel how strong and nice these 4680 cells feel compared to those plebian 2170's."

It certainly wouldn't make me change my car buying schedule if I needed a new car.

I'm curious about how the structural pack & front/rear castings will affect body stiffness. I can tell the body in my 2018 Model 3 twists when I go over uneven ground. Musk alluded to improved crash performance, I assume this is due to a stiffer frame.

 

[StealthP3D]

They look the same to me. They are likely coated with an electrical insulator, so not bare metal.

That could be. But the video depicts a wavy separator between every row of cells while the still image depicts nothing between alternating rows:

 

[JRP3]

Tesla Borg cube confirmed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1512209364526026763

 

[BornToFly]

It's all about the macro (again) today.

My point exactly. We are down 2X macro today because most people don't understand what was just shown to them last night. If they did understand, they would be selling everything else and scoping up TSLA with both hands.

 

[phantasms]

Tesla Borg cube confirmed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1512209364526026763

This looks VERY much like a Beeple piece and he said he had art there last night. I want to get that image, print it, frame it, put it above my computer with a sign that says "Never Ever Sell TSLA"

p.s. If anyone can find this image for me I'd appreciate it.

 

[FreqFlyer]

I'm curious about how the structural pack & front/rear castings will affect body stiffness. I can tell the body in my 2018 Model 3 twists when I go over uneven ground. Musk alluded to improved crash performance, I assume this is due to a stiffer frame.

As a car guy I want to know that too. Will have to wait till the car mags get an Austin made Y to see if there are handling differences.

 

[jbcarioca]

Where did we get that clarification? Last night? Is that what Elon meant? I thought Shanghai had multiple Model Y lines and isnt at 500K per year on Model Y yet. Of course not 4680 Model Ys.

I thought Elon said that the combination of front and rear castings with structural pack allowed faster and higher cavity lines, so that single line could ramp to 500,000. To be positive I'd need to listen again or find the subject in a transcript.

 

[FastCompany]

My point exactly. We are down 2X macro today because most people don't understand what was just shown to them last night. If they did understand, they would be selling everything else and scoping up TSLA with both hands.

"In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine."

"In the short run, the market is a milking machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine."

 

[AudubonB]

I was quite disappointed in the politicians’ No-Show last night.

I’d so been looking forward to deleting gigabytes of your posts…..

 

[JRP3]

But the video depicts a wavy separator between every row of cells while the still image depicts nothing between alternating rows

Good catch, I assume they just left it out of the cutaway mockup.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Macros aside, did we really believe $TSLA was going to be green today

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Yep. We'll likely see another MY line being built in Austin very shortly for the revised 4680 MYP and LR (Future Production area???), once up and running Freemont shuts down for re-tooling, and after that production kicks into overdrive!

Surely the next model 3 line would be the 4680 plaid performance cabriolet ? Therein lies the true advantage of the structural pack. I WANT one.

 

[jbcarioca]

I was quite disappointed in the politicians’ No-Show last night.

I’d so been looking forward to deleting gigabytes of your posts…..

I concur. I was anticipating very rigorous self-deletion to discipline my inclinations, but instead am forced to unbridled enthusiasm.
Once again my curmudgeonly inclinations have been foiled!!