Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thesmokingman]

I think Elon's statement that there will be a 'dedicated Robotaxi that wlll look very different' counts as a big surprise.

Except for those of us that watched "Westworld":

View attachment 791259

2nd surprise? You'll likely have to wait for "Master Plan Pt3". But nobody is expecting 10m units per year of this "Model 1" Robotaxi.

Cheers!

They are not going to look like the WW mover because the WW mover would not be legal because they have no bumpers obviously and they're not designed to protect PEDs in case of collision. I suspect they'd look closer to the Boring Co. mover renders.

 

[2daMoon]

OT

This happens in fifteen minutes...

... and they are GREEN, with expectation of the SP (Spacebound Payload) rising today.

 

[Speedr117]

OT

This happens in fifteen minutes...

... and they are GREEN, with expectation of the SP (Spacebound Payload) rising today.

Thanks for the reminder!!!

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

They are not going to look like the WW mover because the WW mover would not be legal because they have no bumpers obviously and they're not designed to protect PEDs in case of collision. I suspect they'd look closer to the Boring Co. mover renders.

It will be based on cybertruck based on his reference to the futuristic look. Also will be an even easier job for stainless steel, and no painting, durability required for the Robotaxi makes a lot of sense.

 

[UncaNed]

Surprised this has not been posted - Block and Tesla to bitcoin mine with solar farms.

Tesla, Block and Blockstream team up to mine bitcoin off solar power in Texas

Blockstream and Jack Dorsey's Block are breaking ground on a solar- and battery-powered bitcoin mine in Texas using solar and storage technology from Tesla.

www.cnbc.com

Sorry - Misleading title. It is only Block and Blockstream using Tesla technology.

Meh.

What good does this really do anybody except the owners? It produces NO useful commodities nor services. NOTHING. Like laying a cable across the ocean just so stock trading bots can make money by beating everyone else with information by a fraction of a second or something.

 

[Zero CO2]

I can't figure out why, from the perspective of an auto consumer, so many people think the 4680 cells will be all that different from 2170 cells which are proven safe, durable and powerful and fast to charge.. The 2170's are proven to be these things over years and have low risk. Of course, I think the 4680's will prove to be all these things too, but the single biggest advantage of 4680 cells is the lower cost to manufacture. Obviously, there are other benefits but it's not like you will be driving down the road saying "Wow, gee whiz, feel how strong and nice these 4680 cells feel compared to those plebian 2170's."

It certainly wouldn't make me change my car buying schedule if I needed a new car.

yup this only matters to the 50 or so on this TMC thread who talk endlessly about it .. you will take whatever Model Y is available .... hard to imagine your average first time Tesla buyer asking what battery form factor does this model Y have ...

don't get me wrong as described on battery day it will benefits us all as investors ... but from a consumer POV it is almost irrelevant in the short term unless Tesla can lower prices which at the moment does not look likely....

 

[Mengy]

Do we really think that the 20th will be all that great though? I’m usually pretty optimistic and all but out numbers weren’t outstanding to the street and with all the crap going on in the world and the china factory shut down, I’m just not so sure it’ll be anything spectacular.
Of course we all know what Tesla is worth, much much more than this for sure, but with what we’ve been through with our constant share price push down in the last year, I don’t get my hopes up anymore.

Financials on the 20th should be very good, but basically the same as Q4 2021 only without the one time hitters we had then. EPS & margins will be up but I don't really expect the stock to move much on or after the 20th honestly. My hunch is the PE will simply compress more while TSLA trades mostly flat due to the MM's controlling the pricing. That's my gut feeling.

I don't think the stock will move much until Q3 or Q4 of 2022 when the earnings will simply become too large to ignore anymore. A growth stock like this can only take so much PE compression before something has to give. I just don't think that happens for half a year yet.

 

[StealthP3D]

People/institutions taking risk off to see how insane inflation and less free money impacts the economy and markets.

True. But if the market was smarter than it is, if more market participants could see what was actually going on, Tesla's value would firm up through this economic uncertainty, as a safer haven in an environment that could be very unfavorable to businesses without Tesla's advantages.

I really like the concept of needing TSLA in your portfolio to vaccinate it against all the potential diseases of the economy out there. TSLA can get hit by short-term market pessimism, but I think it will fundamentally be a strong performer even in a very weak economic environment relative to other companies, regardless of market sector. That means if the proverbial sugar hits the fan, TSLA will lead the way out of darkness as they continue to report each quarter's results. It's a safe harbor in times of trouble and an outrageous out-performer in times of plenty.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

The market is supposed to be forward looking, right? Or did I miss something? Two new factories now open. Cost set to greatly decrease with structural pack, 4680s, manufacturing on 3 continents, less shipping costs, the list goes on and on.

Yeah, that forward thinking justifies a 3% drop in stock price...sure. Oh, and Ford and GM are up today. smh

Dan

 

[JRP3]

Interesting that there's a thickness difference between alternating rows. The thicker ones seem to match the size of the cooling tubes in that other "assembly cutaway" picture. I wonder if the thinner ones are actually cooling tubes or serve some other purpose? Adhesive to physically bond cell strings to each other?

I imagine it's just an insulated separator. I'm assuming they will still be injecting structural adhesive into the pack.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

The Model 3 is already one of the stiffest cars on the road save for exotic sports cars.

A daily driver can actually be too stiff for reasonable comfort and so when Tesla says a structural pack or front and rear castings will make for a stiffer chassis, I interpret that too mean how stiff it is for the weight. Any car can be made as stiff as desired simply by adding more material/weight to the structure. And a structural pack or cast front/rear chassis can be engineered to maintain desired stiffness while reducing weight.

If you are saying your 2018 Model 3 has excessive chassis twist, I really wonder what you are comparing it to and what you expect to gain with more chassis stiffness. If I were to improve the handling of the Model 3, I would not focus on adding stiffness, but removing weight while maintaining existing stiffness.

One thing the existing Model 3 chassis doesn't do is flex/twist. You only have to jack it up on one corner to see that.

 

[insaneoctane]

Sure, many consumers may not care about the underlying battery form in their Tesla, but the highly informed, ie many in this thread, should understand the differences. The 4680s represent everything Tesla could muster in their next gen battery. While cost and scalability were paramount, there are other factors that Tesla must have considered. Lots of talk about "the million mile battery". Do you think that chemistry and capability will come to the 2170 or 18650 first? What about compatibility with Supercharger v4 or v5, do you think 4680s aren't going to be able to handle those future charge rates? I suspect advertising that future compatibility isn't in Tesla's best interest today. 4680 = Structural pack = reduced weight and increased stiffness. So, while the form factor may not matter to everyone, it matters to THIS guy!

 

[insaneoctane]

One thing the existing Model 3 chassis doesn't do is flex/twist. You only have to jack it up on one corner to see that.

Tesla mobile service uses this fact to rotate tires....raising the car at one corner quickly results in both tires on that side of the vehicle lifting off the ground, allowing them to rotate tires with one jack.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1164226461118738432

 

[Discoducky]

The simulation keeps getting weirder.

These are the current top performing anything in my watchlist

 

[SOULPEDL]

Fun thought. Could you imagine how well Robo-FSD would work taking on a more predictable neighborhood? Routes like a Bus, Cruise, or Waymo might be a breeze. In other words, Tesla geofenced FSD version (just made that up) could master a neighborhood (quickly learn any strange road markings or odd intersections), but not memorize. Instead, learn and focus, huge difference.

I'm a bit concerned that Tesla changed it's Human+FSD hybrid approach. Maybe the take rate was just not high enough (at any price, leasing it was reasonable), or maybe too many fender benders (leadtime on repairs growing). Maybe removing the controls completely freaks people out for their own car. I guess the question is, would someone buy one without the wheel or accelerator, maybe just the brake? I think that's a Robotaxy so why own one at all?

I do recall a comment from Elon at an Earnings Call, and Elon was debating even having a steering wheel on the Model Y. We're not hearing that anymore, and instead it's a robotaxy? Or now with the Robotax as well? Maybe the initial Beta testers were all that was needed to prime the data as a head start until they could learn through users even if they didn't purchase FSD. I still need to chew on this... something changed with Robotaxi. Maybe not enough takers out there but I can only guess. Yes, there are plenty with pretty good scores begging for FSD, but compared to the millions of vehicles on the production roadmap, it's not mass adoption in it's current form.

 

[-=buzz=-]

Interesting that there's a thickness difference between alternating rows. The thicker ones seem to match the size of the cooling tubes in that other "assembly cutaway" picture. I wonder if the thinner ones are actually cooling tubes or serve some other purpose? Adhesive to physically bond cell strings to each other?

It should be an insulator, otherwise those two rows would all be connected in parallel, which would create a much lower pack voltage than the target 350-400V..

 

[Spacep0d]

View attachment 791343

LOL I was making Johnny Cab jokes when Elon announced the dedicated Robotaxi!

 

[jbcarioca]

Some of us are probably ignoring several headwinds that make non-cognoscenti think the Tesla future can be questionable, without being FUDsters:
-Ukraine has genuine risk for sudden natural gas supply being cut off in Germany, If that happens Tesla Grùneheide WILL be affected;
-GF Shanghai is subject to several risks from Covid-19 closure to geo-politics;
-new product launches are still uncertain;
-Simultaneous ramps of both new GF's make new severe unprecedented stresses on supply chains, management and new technology ramping;
-continuing chip shortages, with battery shortages while 4680 ramps and new supplier factories ramp;
-raw material price inflation and supply questions.
These six, among others, are all legitimate risks.
The bulls among us, including me say, so what is new? That is life in Tesla-land. Frankly, right now the bears do have some perfectly reasonable questions.
Our questions are mostly related to understanding how to mitigate those risks and watch carefully to observe them being resolved.
I've completely ignored the staffing problems and perennial engineer shortages, as I have FSD and related issues. Those are probably easier to solve for Tesla, not so much for more 'normal' companies.

 

[AudubonB]

Tesla mobile service uses this fact to rotate tires....raising the car at one corner quickly results in both tires on that side of the vehicle lifting off the ground, allowing them to rotate tires with one jack.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1164226461118738432

Do the Performance versions have equal tires fore and aft? Our P100D Ludicrous Model X does not, and one thus one cannot use only one jack.
(What I do is lower the raised first corner on a block I’ve specially constructed to fit around my floor jack - more specific discussion does not belong in this thread).

 

[Etna]

This looks VERY much like a Beeple piece and he said he had art there last night. I want to get that image, print it, frame it, put it above my computer with a sign that says "Never Ever Sell TSLA"

p.s. If anyone can find this image for me I'd appreciate it.

Love that image too and could not find its source either but in the mean time I digitally reconstructed this image from the tweet (contrast/color/sharpness enhance and artistically cloned the missing corner).