Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thesmokingman]

Do the Performance versions have equal tires fore and aft? Our P100D Ludicrous Model X does not, and one thus one cannot use only one jack.
(What I do is lower the raised first corner on a block I’ve specially constructed to fit around my floor jack - more specific discussion does not belong in this thread).

One jack lifting is only for square tire setups. With staggered we're still screwed.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Do the Performance versions have equal tires fore and aft? Our P100D Ludicrous Model X does not, and one thus one cannot use only one jack.
(What I do is lower the raised first corner on a block I’ve specially constructed to fit around my floor jack - more specific discussion does not belong in this thread).

Yes, standard Model 3 is a square set up. It's actually possible to get all 4 tyres off the ground at once using only 2 jacking points on a Model 3.

I suspect it might also be possible on a MS/MX but I haven't tried.

 

[-=buzz=-]

One thing not mentioned yet, is that in the intro video the Berlin car was shown with a front casting.
So either they mixed up the clips, or there are at least some test cars with double castings getting assembled in Germany

 

[Beltsbear]

Meh.

What good does this really do anybody except the owners? It produces NO useful commodities nor services. NOTHING. Like laying a cable across the ocean just so stock trading bots can make money by beating everyone else with information by a fraction of a second or something.

If it allows for grid control and can drop mining, kick in batteries as needed, it can be very useful in Texas. That can make other solar and wind more useful as well. Tesla is in the lead with autobidder, and the megapacks used here should have that capability.

 

[petit_bateau]

Interesting that there's a thickness difference between alternating rows. The thicker ones seem to match the size of the cooling tubes in that other "assembly cutaway" picture. I wonder if the thinner ones are actually cooling tubes or serve some other purpose? Adhesive to physically bond cell strings to each other?

In all of the pictures there is a wavy side-cooling tube between every second row. But in some of the photos - and not in others - there is a wavy separator in the alternate location. I not only wonder what it is (most likely a stiffener of some sort) but also wonder why it is missing in some of the assembly photos and not in others. Were these cut-away units hand-crafted and not necessarily fully production representative ?

Also interesting that they have changed course since Battery Day, going to side cooling not bottom cooling. A nice lack of ego in that decision making.

 

[Electroman]

Well to be fair she isn’t wrong on the Shanghai closure part

Well.. if you take that viewpoint, then she wouldn't be wrong if she had mentioned:
- the pedo tweet
- the 420 tweet
- snubs from Biden administration
- racial discrimination lawsuit that Tesla lost
- yada yada

All of the above are facts and can be woven into any Tesla article, and she wouldn't be wrong. Just contextually irrelevant.

 

[Speedr117]

One thing not mentioned yet, is that in the intro video the Berlin car was shown with a front casting.
So either they mixed up the clips, or there are at least some test cars with double castings getting assembled in Germany

My understanding is, they need the structural pack with 4680s to utilize the front casting. So while they still use 2170s, they need the welded up front.

 

[Accident]

The simulation keeps getting weirder.

These are the current top performing anything in my watchlist

View attachment 791361

I guess the market decided that today is one of those "rotation out of tech day" after the 10YT yield hit a new 3 year high.

Every other sector but tech is green today.

 

[Sofie]

Financials on the 20th should be very good, but basically the same as Q4 2021 only without the one time hitters we had then. EPS & margins will be up but I don't really expect the stock to move much on or after the 20th honestly. My hunch is the PE will simply compress more while TSLA trades mostly flat due to the MM's controlling the pricing. That's my gut feeling.

I don't think the stock will move much until Q3 or Q4 of 2022 when the earnings will simply become too large to ignore anymore. A growth stock like this can only take so much PE compression before something has to give. I just don't think that happens for half a year yet.

Yes. I agree 100% with this. And even then, better to not have hopes up too much. This economy and world, is definitely not as predictable as we think.

 

[Stormy24]

The market is supposed to be forward looking, right? Or did I miss something? Two new factories now open. Cost set to greatly decrease with structural pack, 4680s, manufacturing on 3 continents, less shipping costs, the list goes on and on.

Yeah, that forward thinking justifies a 3% drop in stock price...sure. Oh, and Ford and GM are up today. smh

Dan

Sadly it’s China’s zero covid policy if they don’t change it I can’t see the factory reopening in q2. it’s all looking a bit *sugar*. fud levels will go up and stock will go down. perhaps this will lead to some more good buying prices...

 

[Featsbeyond50]

The market is supposed to be forward looking, right? Or did I miss something? Two new factories now open. Cost set to greatly decrease with structural pack, 4680s, manufacturing on 3 continents, less shipping costs, the list goes on and on.

Yeah, that forward thinking justifies a 3% drop in stock price...sure. Oh, and Ford and GM are up today. smh

Dan

All that is already priced in. To get what is not priced in, we need FSD delivered with visible path to cash, Optimus delivered with visible path to cash, or continued execution leading to earnings that can't be ignored (what Mengy said).

 

[MartinAustin]

Since we had clarification that the single lien is capable of ramping to 500,000 Model Y per year it seems unlikely there will b another Model Y line in Austin. The now unoccupied space will certainly include Cybertruck. Chances are the Semi and Roadster may not be built in that building, but AFAIK there has been no explicit statement about that.

Don't be too worried that there's only one line in this building. They want to produce Cybertruck and other stuff there too. (I think Semi, at least)

Tesla has a total of 3,000 acres. There is nothing stopping them from building one or more identically-sized buildings in that site. I think we should expect that, actually.

 

[MP3Mike]

Also interesting that they have changed course since Battery Day,

I don't think so. They never said what type of cooling they were going to use.

In all of the pictures there is a wavy side-cooling tube between every second row. But in some of the photos - and not in others - there is a wavy separator in the alternate location. I not only wonder what it is (most likely a stiffener of some sort) but also wonder why it is missing in some of the assembly photos and not in others. Were these cut-away units hand-crafted and not necessarily fully production representative ?

It is probably just an insulator sheet. Obviously the cut-away was hand-crafted, as it had all the parts suspended by wires in various stages of assembly.

 

[JoRoMo]

…

Also interesting that they have changed course since Battery Day, going to side cooling not bottom cooling. A nice lack of ego in that decision making.

Wasn’t bottom cooling something Munro assumed would be likely after Battery Day, rather than Tesla explicitly stating it at the event?

Edit: Slow typing on phone, MP3Mike already answered…

 

[StealthP3D]

Yes. I agree 100% with this. And even then, better to not have hopes up too much. This economy and world, is definitely not as predictable as we think.

I've made a lot of money over decades by assuming the economy and the world are very predictable, as long as you don't worry about the inevitable short-term fluctuations. Wall Street tries to get investors to think otherwise so they can skim money from as many people as possible.

The earth turns around, which means the sun rises, people go to work, eat meals, make babies, chose entertainment, solve clothing, solve transportation, solve housing, borrow money, try to improve their living situation, striving for a better tomorrow. This just keeps happening, there are wars, pandemics, scandals and economic disruptions, but the wheels of the economy just keep churning along as people solve life's needs and wants.

Some businesses grow over time, others stagnate, shrink or become disrupted. Things are VERY predictable and that creates profits for those who realize just how predictable these things are.

 

[Mengy]

I've made a lot of money over decades by assuming the economy and the world are very predictable, as long as you don't worry about the inevitable short-term fluctuations. Wall Street tries to get investors to think otherwise so they can skim money from as many people as possible.

The earth turns around, which means the sun rises, people go to work, eat meals, make babies, chose entertainment, solve clothing, solve transportation, solve housing, borrow money, try to improve their living situation, striving for a better tomorrow. This just keeps happening, there are wars, pandemics, scandals and economic disruptions, but the wheels of the economy just keep churning along as people solve life's needs and wants.

Some businesses grow over time, others stagnate, shrink or become disrupted. Things are VERY predictable and that creates profits for those who realize just how predictable these things are.

Exactly. When in doubt, zoom out, and the overall long term picture becomes surprisingly clear.

 

[Sofie]

I've made a lot of money over decades by assuming the economy and the world are very predictable, as long as you don't worry about the inevitable short-term fluctuations. Wall Street tries to get investors to think otherwise so they can skim money from as many people as possible.

The earth turns around, which means the sun rises, people go to work, eat meals, make babies, chose entertainment, solve clothing, solve transportation, solve housing, borrow money, try to improve their living situation, striving for a better tomorrow. This just keeps happening, there are wars, pandemics, scandals and economic disruptions, but the wheels of the economy just keep churning along as people solve life's needs and wants.

Some businesses grow over time, others stagnate, shrink or become disrupted. Things are VERY predictable and that creates profits for those who realize just how predictable these things are.

Yes but there are also pandemics, world hunger, wars and uprisings, government shutdowns and food/equipment shortages that happen when we least expect.
All I’m saying is, that although this fall/winter looks brighter from our view here in spring, it may not be. Who knows what may happen between now and then. Hence all of our agreement in HODL as always the best strategy for investing.

 

[Usain]

All that is already priced in. To get what is not priced in, we need FSD delivered with visible path to cash, Optimus delivered with visible path to cash, or continued execution leading to earnings that can't be ignored (what Mengy said).

I don't think energy is priced in. Analysts generally don't account for Tesla energy in their spreadsheets.

But the growth of Tesla energy is a slam dunk. Unlike FSD and Optimus, it doesn't require any technology breakthrough whatsoever. It only requires Tesla to acquire as many LFP batteries as possible.

 

[-=buzz=-]

My understanding is, they need the structural pack with 4680s to utilize the front casting. So while they still use 2170s, they need the welded up front.

There's no direct reason for the front-casting to require a structural pack. If the casting has the same dimensions and attachement points as the previous subassembly, it's a 'simple' swap.
And I would strongly expect so, as they would otherwise have to create unique stamping parts or brackets, or use extensive amounts of shims to match up with the common parts. Then there are new weld schemes for the robots to program, different wire/line lengths, new plastic molds, etc. All of which runs counter to the intended economy of scale.
The other argument is exhibit A: rear casting.
But if that's the case, only Tesla knows...

 

[wipster]

Yes but there are also pandemics, world hunger, wars and uprisings, government shutdowns and food/equipment shortages that happen when we least expect.
All I’m saying is, that although this fall/winter looks brighter from our view here in spring, it may not be. Who knows what may happen between now and then. Hence all of our agreement in HODL as always the best strategy for investing.

It's similar to Elon's statement about prototypes being easier than production... planning is easier than execution.

That's one of the things I love about Tesla is the flexibility they've shown in adapting to the actual situation rather than throwing their hands up in the air. Recent case in point is the chip shortage. Rather than quit making cars like GM and Ford, they found available chips and rewrote the software to use them. Brilliant.