Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jbcarioca]

It’s not a “little bit of uncertainty”

It’s if you say something we (the CCP) don’t like we will confiscate your factory and ban you from operation in our country . The probability of this isn’t tiny as it’s happened many times to other companies.

It is not irrelevant to observe that the same risks apply in many countries. The US is one of them, once of only two that tax citizens worldwide no matter where they live or how they earn their living. How many countries have, within living memory, interred all citizens of a given ethnicity. Yes, that is a risk in China too. It is a risk in many countries. The error is in imagining that this applies to only one or two places. Just try renouncing your US citizenship to see what happens. That is why few dare renounce.

As an investor in and business person in roughly sixteen countries in my life, including some dictatorships, I can say I had my livelihood threatened by a losing jurisdiction only once. That one was New York State, which impounded all my accounts when I filed from another state. Lucky for me I eventually recouped the confiscated money.

Whatever you do don't even think about China being riskier than many other places. It is not!

FWIW, I am not anti-US or even anti-New York State, I am a realist. Countries can and do do horrible things. It's not productive to demonize others unless you're un the midst of wanton slaughter. That is an entirely different issue.

There is a reason we ban politics here. Please refrain form doing so.
MODS: you're wise to delete this as soon as the OP has read this one. IT may not change his views but might help change behavior.

 

[Ogre]

…
Even if 4680's taper much later than 2170's, I think you will be disappointed if you think it's going to change much about a trip. I already prefer travelling by Supercharger compared to gasoline and this difference keeps growing every year as new, more convenient Supercharger locations spring up.
…

As with everything regarding batteries, improvement Year over Year is incremental with occasional bigger jumps. For a Model Y owner, the typical Supercharger stop might drop from 15 minutes to 12 minutes. There might be some knock on effects though.

If we do get the 350 kW Superchargers, the newer cars are likely to better leverage the new Superchargers which will drop it down even more.

None of this is game changing. Just pulling over to charge takes about 10 minutes so overall it’s the difference between a 25 minute stop and a 22 minute stop. For a longer stop, it might be the difference between 40 minutes and 50 minutes. It’s nice, but ultimately not changing the game, for a long road trip it might reduce your travel time by 2%.

For the 500 mile Cybertruck where you have a ~180-220 kWh pack this all gets a bit more interesting. Particularly when the competition will be vastly less efficient and likely have a much worse tapering curve.

 

[Ogre]

Had to disagree.

Just drove 1,600 miles lately. I was 'stuck' for 55 minutes at 250kW charger in the middle of the night with no stores / restrooms/ anything. I would have much preferred to be there for half of that instead. This is just a one example.

Frankly, I really want to see various tests for TX 4860 made Tesla.

Seems unlikely it will cut that number in half. It might shave 10 minutes off.

I’d love to see someone get some real numbers on this though. This is one of those conversations I’d love to be wrong on.

 

[EnergyMax]

Last updated: 2 days ago
latest…

• The city recorded almost 25,000 infections on Sunday, the ninth straight day of rising case numbers

Yeah. It's up to 25k cases on Sunday

Shanghai releases thousands of Covid patients, but infections keep rising

The city recorded almost 25,000 infections on Sunday, the ninth straight day of rising case numbers.

www.scmp.com

 

[JimS]

Weekend OT.

Hello @BioSehnsucht - You received compliments from @ Baumisch for your screen name. I looked up the word sehnsucht and Google Translate converts it to "longing" and "nostalgia". What indeed does the word biosehnsucht convey? Is it nostalgia over a cleaner planetary environment of the past or yearning for an ideal environment in the future? Is the term just your own coining or is there a broader movement in Germany / Europe around this?

I did some Googling as well. My guess is “Yearning for the good life.”

Any other guesses before @BioSehnsucht resolves the mystery?

 

[Queeg500]

The best country for a Tesla factory is wherever Tesla decides to build a Tesla factory.
Why speculate and worry about what happens if they choose << insert country to worry about here >> ?
I am willing to believe their decision will be based on important facts that we haven’t even thought about.

 

[snellenr]

How many countries have, within living memory, interred all citizens of a given ethnicity.

Can't think of any off hand that interned all citizens of a given ethnicity, although both Canada and the United States (unforgivably) interned citizens of Japanese descent who lived within a certain distance of their respective Pacific coasts. Notably, Hawaiian citizens of Japanese descent were not interned...

 

[jerry33]

800 mile days are already here, and my car has the old 18650s. 800 miles is only 13 hours of travel in a long range, and this is not hard travel. I’m in my 80s, and it’s not particularly tiring.

Exactly. Done it many times.

 

[StealthP3D]

Had to disagree.

Just drove 1,600 miles lately. I was 'stuck' for 55 minutes at 250kW charger in the middle of the night with no stores / restrooms/ anything. I would have much preferred to be there for half of that instead. This is just a one example.

Frankly, I really want to see various tests for TX 4860 made Tesla.

Trip planning errors will not be solved by 4680 cells. I've spent that long charging once and it was because I was headed into an area of rural Montana for two days with no Superchargers so I charged to over 90%. The more the network is built out, the less it will be necessary to charge in the slow part of the charge curve.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

800 mile days are already here, and my car has the old 18650s. 800 miles is only 13 hours of travel in a long range, and this is not hard travel. I’m in my 80s, and it’s not particularly tiring.

I have made the drive from Seattle to the SF Bay Area multiple times in a single day. That's just over 860 miles one way. Most of it was on the boring straight I-5 on Autopilot so I just sat there and watched the scenery going by. 2018 LR AWD 3 here, not even going out of my way to purposely try and choose the 250 kW Superchargers on the route. In fact my routing was based on which SC stops had In-N-Out Burgers next to them.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Can you recommend a convenient pee-bottle so I can take advantage of this faster Supercharging on trips?

Lol, if you google your exact question above, the 3rd search result is "Fremont opens new 250 KW Supercharger". Seems to be an issue...

But here you go anyway, since you asked:

Portable Urinal Bottle for Men and Elderly 1000ml Urine Jar Spill ... www.amazon.ca › Portable-Urinal-Bottle-Elderly-Plastic​

Only $32 CAD, but Yelp reviews are mixed due to risk of spills...

Cheers!

 

[ZeApelido]

V11 coming soon?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1513283265318191106

 

[Ogre]

I have made the drive from Seattle to the SF Bay Area multiple times in a single day. That's just over 860 miles one way. Most of it was on the boring straight I-5 on Autopilot so I just sat there and watched the scenery going by. 2018 LR AWD 3 here, not even going out of my way to purposely try and choose the 250 kW Superchargers on the route. In fact my routing was based on which SC stops had In-N-Out Burgers next to them.

If you stop at the ones with In-And-Out Burgers you are certainly not going to be worried about how long your car takes to charge. In fact they are so damned busy and slow you may end up with idle fees.

PS: If you drive from Seattle to the Bay Area multiple times in a single day… you must really be moving really fast.

 

[JustSaying]

Lol, if you google your exact question above, the 3rd search result is "Fremont opens new 250 KW Supercharger". Seems to be an issue...

But here you go anyway, since you asked:

Portable Urinal Bottle for Men and Elderly 1000ml Urine Jar Spill ... www.amazon.ca › Portable-Urinal-Bottle-Elderly-Plastic​

Only $32 CAD, but Yelp reviews are mixed due to risk of spills...

View attachment 792207

Cheers!

Careful using that one, very prone to "spillage" I used it while in traction for 5 months(short story, car crash ,broken femur).

 

[heltok]

Regarding China, Russia, Tesla etc. I used to be a very strong believer in free market capitalism and globalization. I believe prosperity is reached by allowing people to trade freely and let the most efficient producer produce. Better for USA to grow corn, ship it to Japan where the corn magically is converted to Toyotas if that’s the cheapest way for USA to make cars etc. But as I have grown older I start to see cracks in this thesis and this war again highlights those cracks.

China has a plan to become dominant in the world and they are executing it. They want to dominate some specific industries, medical equipment, military, electric vehicle, AI etc. And when the pandemic happened, then suddenly USA realizes that outsourcing all medical equipment production maybe wasn’t that great. And when Russia invades Ukraine, Germany realizes that outsourcing all energy generation to Russia wasn’t that great.

So then one needs to do some thinking and figure out where exactly capitalism is failing the west and if there is an argument for limiting free trade, for government subsidizing specific industries etc. And then one find oneself back to tribalism, deciding which group are your friends and which your enemies and how much you trust them. Deciding how much money you are willing to lose by supporting your friends and not supporting your enemies, deciding how self sufficient you want to be, how much you can delegate to your friends and how much to your enemies.

And this needs to be done, because if we don’t then other tribes who do will win. Imo these books should be read by everyone:

Amazon.com

www.amazon.com

Amazon.com

www.amazon.com

Amazon.com

www.amazon.com

 

[FireMedic]

The best country for a Tesla factory is wherever Tesla decides to build a Tesla factory.
Why speculate and worry about what happens if they choose << insert country to worry about here >> ?
I am willing to believe their decision will be based on important facts that we haven’t even thought about.

It’s my guess that we’re not talking about which “country for the next factory”, but rather, the countries for the next factories.

Elon has been talking a lot lately about growing to extreme scale. They have the ‘Machine the builds the machine that builds the machine’ pretty much ironed out at this point.

We first saw one factory being built, then we saw two simultaneous factories being built, my guess is we will now see four simultaneous factories being built.

 

[new_sneakers]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1513283265318191106

This is a good sign!

A pre-requisite to this should be a further reduction of phantom braking on highways, which is arguably a bigger deal for driver comfort than the higher speed limit.

They are already on this path: On the FSD Beta 10.11 release notes they explicitly called out fewer false positive detections of vulnerable road users:

“Improved the precision of VRU detections by 44.9%, dramatically reducing spurious false positive pedestrians and bicycles (especially around tar seams, skid marks, and rain drops). This was accomplished by increasing the data size of the next-gen autolabeler, training network parameters that were previously frozen, and modifying the network loss functions. We find that this decreases the incidence of VRU-related false slowdowns.”

 

[EVDRVN]

As with everything regarding batteries, improvement Year over Year is incremental with occasional bigger jumps. For a Model Y owner, the typical Supercharger stop might drop from 15 minutes to 12 minutes. There might be some knock on effects though.

If we do get the 350 kW Superchargers, the newer cars are likely to better leverage the new Superchargers which will drop it down even more.

None of this is game changing. Just pulling over to charge takes about 10 minutes so overall it’s the difference between a 25 minute stop and a 22 minute stop. For a longer stop, it might be the difference between 40 minutes and 50 minutes. It’s nice, but ultimately not changing the game, for a long road trip it might reduce your travel time by 2%.

For the 500 mile Cybertruck where you have a ~180-220 kWh pack this all gets a bit more interesting. Particularly when the competition will be vastly less efficient and likely have a much worse tapering curve.

My Experience on the faster SCs is significant if you know how to play the SOC/ pack temp game. I expect the 4680 to be much faster even on the existing network. Heat is what slows all the packs now and that is supposed to be significantly changed on 4680 in two ways. I think it may be more of a benefit than people think particularly on road trips with higher temps. The difference can be dramatic holding high rates for even short periods before taper. Even the present packs taper fast or wont start fast without specific conditions.

 

[AudubonB]

Dependence for what? All our crap? I think a lot of GenX folks my age have had about enough hyper consumption for one lifetime.

I mean.....how many sex dolls do you need? I would argue one is more than enough for anyone. And that's not even with sharing.

Yes, I'm aware of medical device manufacture and every other thing that's super important. We're globalized and decentralizing at the same time. The latter dramatically dampens the negative impacts of the former.

There's no reversing this, and there's really no need to.

You should put your money where your....

...aah, on second thought, let's not go there.

 

[Big Time]

Any1 have a source for current weekly output out of Berlin and Austin?