Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Featsbeyond50]

Don't worry about this selloff guys, it's okay. I'm selling an investment house and will soon have lots of cash to put into TSLA so everything is fine.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

@StarFoxisDown!
Pretty sure it's by the end of the year, not at the end of the year.

Yes, the wording is technically "by end of the year" but doesn't change my point that the margin loan won't be taken until the buyout goes through oversight

 

[Singuy]

That's like a 3% shift from the recent high of ~0.158 to 0.153.
Over the last 180 days:
4% down from high to low
1% down from average to low
US Dollar (USD) to Chinese Yuan (CNY) exchange rate history

Yuan to Euro is 8% to 4% though which is more impactful for Tesla China.

It's the velocity of the shift which mostly happened in the last 2 weeks. And also it can still drop more.
Tho the headwind on financials is not a huge deal, but just like the treasure bonds, these kind of movements will do a lot to spook the market.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'm calling $969 for today's close.

 

[Accident]

Some good news. First ship in Q2 from Shanghai scheduled to dock in Europe on 05/31

https://twitter.com/x/status/1518875455549550592

 

[2daMoon]

They (shorties/MMs, etc.) are just mad that Twitter might not be their favorite platform to bash Tesla any more.

As usual, all they do is hurt the unwary (paper handed retail investors) and make buying opportunities for HODLers.

Buckle up, the next rebound could be a doozie.

 

[generalenthu]

Elon should tweet that he is not selling TSLA stock to finance the Twitter purchase. Or would that be a violation of SEC ruling?

He can't do that until he "secures funding" by way of a PE partner for the remaining equity commitment. (17 Billion)

Until then it's like the of Damocles. I give good odds (75%+) for finding a large partner for all of the remainder, but there's this issue of eventual liquidity / re IPO and market is going to be skeptical.

 

[Tim S]

Have converted 400 shares to Leaps and Calls today, so far. Something about being greedy while others are fearful...

Edit: 500

Edit: For those curious, I bought a mix of Jan '24 $1200, Jan '24 $1000, Jan '23 $1000 and Jul '22 $1000. The Julys are a gamble, but I am confident the rest will be well in the money by expiration.

One more Edit: This is in a Roth IRA so there are no tax consequences. This strategy would not work as well in a taxable account.

 

[JRP3]

Some perspective

 

[Discoducky]

RIVN and LCID are both down 7% today and F is also down ~3% and they started production of the Lightning today.

GM has earnings today and F tomorrow.

Spoiler: GM earnings might/won't be good

GM reports today and it looks like it might be good, but just because Tesla had good earnings (and yes, the eye roll emoji means sarcasm as Tesla is growing like gangbusters, GM is languishing, shrinking and drowning.

General Motors EPS - Earnings per Share 2010-2021 | GM)



The similarly titled Baron's article is apparently written without sarcasm though...



GM Earnings Might Be Good. Just Look at What Tesla Pulled Off.



"Analysts are looking for General Motors (ticker: GM) to earn $1.68 a share from $37.4 billion in sales. Operating profit is expected to be about $3.4 billion. In last year’s first quarter, GM reported EPS of $2.25 from $32.5 billion in sales. Operating profit came in at about $3.3 billion."



More complete view of expectations: General Motors Company (GM) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Finance

 

[ZachF]

Some perspective

View attachment 797691

Lol

Both Ford and Amazon are going to have to take multi billion dollar charges for Rivian stock in both Q1 and Q2…

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Lol

Both Ford and Amazon are going to have to take multi billion dollar charges for Rivian stock in both Q1 and Q2…

Yeah I fail to see the perspective here

Rivian, Lucid, Nio all lose money, have no P/E multiple at all

GM/F are going to be posting losses and have operating margins that are a fraction of Tesla's 19.2 % operating margin.

And yet, TSLA down more than all of them after having it's P/E compressed from 1200 16 months ago to 122 today.

 

[hobbes]

High profile Indonesian visitors at Austin:

Several officials were part of the delegation. These included Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, Indonesian Ambassador to the United States Rosan Roeslani, and Anindya Bakrie, the general chair of the Advisory Council of Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

In a post on Instagram, Bakrie noted that the goal of the meeting was to persuade Tesla to explore the idea of cooperating with Indonesia for its battery supply chain. “Our goal is to convince Tesla to explore cooperation with Indonesia regarding the supply and processing of Nickel as a raw material for making Battery Cells based on good and sustainable ESG (Environment, Social and Governance),” Bakrie wrote.

Tesla’s Elon Musk meets with delegation from Indonesia at Giga Texas to discuss potential nickel deal

Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently accommodated a delegation from Indonesia in Gigafactory Texas. Images and insights from the meeting were shared by some of the Indonesian officials following their conversation with Musk. The group reportedly discussed a number of topics, among them being...

www.teslarati.com

 

[Phrugal Phan]

Just put in for a $35k transfer in my 457 retirement account to the brokerage window. It won't show up until tomorrow (probably after lunch). Hopefully this drop in TSLA will hold until then for me to get in (or maybe I can get lucky and it will drop more?).

Just remembered last time I transferred in money it got held up and forced to wait until 3/14. I got it at $768 that day - better to be lucky than good.

 

[Drumheller]

Does it only take 1 share sold past the 10% threshold to trigger the uptick rule?

 

[Cherry Wine]

Btw the number TSLA would need to go down on that margin loan is about 400-450/share.

The number of 500/share I’ve seen floated around is using incorrect numbers/math

It just seems like really bad planning to leverage an asset that one then proceeds to tank through large volume selling in order to raise additional capital. Like, that can't be the plan right?

And yes, I am a little grumpy that I sold my protective 4/29 $900 puts at $5.23 a pop earlier today.

 

[Drumheller]

And 10% passed

 

[strago13]

Where is the floor going to be? Uptick rule triggered.

Strap in, this could get ugly.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It just seems like really bad planning to leverage an asset that one then proceeds to tank through large volume selling in order to raise additional capital. Like, that can't be the plan right?

And yes, I am a little grumpy that I sold my protective 4/29 $900 puts at $5.23 a pop earlier today.

Except that thing that is not being talked about is that Elon has multiple options to pay the margin loan through taking equity loans against SpaceX and guess what other company......yup.....Twitter.

The moment the Twitter buyout goes official, Elon can take a equity loan against it. He could easily take an equity loans against his Twitter shares and his SpaceX shares (especially at it's new valuation) and cover the margin loan. There's zero change of him getting margin called. There's zero risk to Elon for anything here.

This is just purely fear mongering.

The fact that this margin loan is purely an up front financing mechanism and people don't get that is amazing to me.

 

[Cherry Wine]

The volatility in TSLA over the past 6 months has just been amazing to watch. (To be fair, the entire market has been crazily volatile.)