Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GOVA]

Illustrative poll by Dave:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1519681834732380160

At time of posting, 46.8% of voters (and 56.9% of those who didn't click "View Results) think Elon has been selling shares this week. I think if today comes and goes without a Form 4, that will eliminate a large source of uncertainty.

A poll to explain reality. Okay.

We all appreciate Dave's contributions but lately it strikes me as quantity over quality. Just check his video stats over time.

 

[ZachF]

Man, whatever you are on, stop. You are clearly losing your marbles. Looks like you are ready to join "@"Cliffsky whenever he's gone.
The tragic thing is he quit because of BTC. LOL.

It could be worse, there’s always the undisputed champion of poor timing…(Neroden)

 

[mrmage]

How many shares did you pick up? Any one here buy today? Pretty quiet.

Bought a BCS at Sept 2023 1000/1500 @ SP 845, but that's just testing the waters.

If Elon is selling, I think we'll be back to mid 700s (if not 600s). If that happens, I'll start converting stocks to long term spreads and LEAPs.

 

[Knightshade]

Hmmm.....let's see here. I have been in TSLA since 2012. Every year we have 4 to 5 dips like this

Just for context- last 5 days drop as of this post is 17.64% (and that includes Fri/Mon with little movement, so we may end the week better or worse than that by 4pm tomorrow of course)

There's only been 7 drops this size in a single week (Mon open to Fri close) or larger since IPO. 4 of those were 2011-2013 so not especially relevant to todays company.

The largest was the week of initial covid lockdown in early 2020 of course which is again kind of understandable.

The other two were week of 8-17-2018 (the drop after the private/420 post) and week of 7-7-2017 (delivery miss at very beginning of Model 3 sales)
(both just a bit over 18% drop)

(credit to Yoona in the 'other' thread for having provided a nice chart of all this a day or two ago)


So if you leave off the ~10 years ago drops we haven't had 4-5 dips like this total let alone annually.

And of the 3 similar or larger post 2013 drops, they've all had fairly clear reasons for happening.



I'm not suggesting the sky is falling- I'm certainly not selling or anything- but this is not a "happens multiple times every year" sized drop, and doesn't even have something like a massive worldwide lockdown or a delivery miss to blame for it.

 

[betstarship]

It's time like these I'm happy I sold a little at ~$1200 and dumped them into dividend mutual funds, financially retired based on passive income, and just can ride out Tesla to wherever this ride goes with what's left between non-IRA and IRA.

 

[Hock1]

A poll to explain reality. Okay.

We all appreciate Dave's contributions but lately it strikes me as quantity over quality. Just check his video stats over time.

I will be surprised if Elon DOESN"T walk away from the deal. The misrepresentations, revealed in recent TWTR earnings, are significant enough to justify NOT paying the break-up fee of $1B. I would get into more elaborations on other reasons he will walk, but they would begin to cross the political line.

 

[PeterJA]

Yes but Elon will be running for office so there is that...

In two years, Elon will be the leader of a Starship program that will drop every jaw on Earth. His other companies will be digging tunnels around the world, giving quadriplegics their arms and legs back, giving elders hope of robot helpers, giving children hope of a livable climate, and maybe giving everyone a "town square" they can trust.

The legions of shorters, FUDsters, liars and dirty-tricksters have not stopped him yet. In two years, their noise will be overpowered by the sheer magnitude of the man's achievements.

 

[EVDRVN]

Converting a a few more Prius-driving sandal lovers in San Francisco (if they convert, it'll be to scooters) isn't going to move the needle on fossil fuel consumption.

That's a very dated stereotype. FYI there are more Teslas sold in SF and the bay area than any place in the country and the Prius was one of the all time highest conversion cars to Tesla. Don't kid yourself on who has the disposable income to spend now it may not be who you expect.

 

[Drumheller]

I will be surprised if Elon DOESN"T walk away from the deal. The misrepresentations, revealed in recent TWTR earnings, are significant enough to justify NOT paying the break-up fee of $1B. I would get into more elaborations on other reasons he will walk, but they would begin to cross the political line.

If he does walk, Elon has already partially achieved his goal. The reactions from the media, the govt, and many user accounts show how corrupt the media is.

 

[UncaNed]

How many shares did you pick up? Any one here buy today? Pretty quiet.

10 at $857. No more dry powder.

 

[betstarship]

I have controversial proof...that I can make a chart on Google Trends.

 

[Krugerrand]

You have NO idea how many people I know or do not know.

I am a long term investor and I've seen this movie many times .... I lost over 1 million the other day in value .... I'm not being dramatic by stating that shareholders have a right to question the leadership of a company.

Grow up

Get a sense of humor and quit taking yourself so seriously. But sure, let’s be real, shall we? Name this ‘a lot of long term shareholders’ with total shares held and for time held. I will accept an Excel spreadsheet, a graph, or even a pizza pie illustration. Otherwise, yes you’re being dramatic and doing a real good job of feeding your senseless emotional rollercoaster.

Facts or you’re talking out your nose.

Pfft! You haven’t lost a penny unless you sold. Which I feel I should advise you to do since it’s clear you’re not made for TSLA volatility. Your portfolio total may have fluctuated by a million. So, what? So has that of others. And honestly I scoff at your million and raise you many multiples of that including a significant line of credit held against shares that’s cutting it close at this SP. I think I’ll go hit Elon up for some money. Some people seem to think his bank is full.

Feel free to take your own growing up advice and reel in the fear. Or better idea, gather your a lot of long term investor friends and class action lawsuit Elon.

 

[MadScientist23]

A poll to explain reality. Okay.

We all appreciate Dave's contributions but lately it strikes me as quantity over quality. Just check his video stats over time.

I've been noticing that too, lots of (multiple times a day) clips of like 5-6 minutes and not much substance behind them. I've actually stopped watching his channel because of this.

 

[WarpedOne]

This smells to me like some big whale is not happy with losing tweeter and is firing guns it can... massive naked shorting to try delete elons financial power.

Simplest explanation is the correct one.

Or am I to believe big shareholders aren't happy with company performance and are jumping ship en masse? Sure...

 

[SOULPEDL]

Last year, someone here explained how we'll know a recession was coming in advance. My memory might be off, but they said it would occur about 2-3 months after the market and headlines got honest... I'm assuming about EVs and Tesla reality. A headline like how F is loosing money now vs how they're promising 2 million static jolts (I mean Lightnings) sometime in the near future. So I take it we're not at that point yet, or did I misunderstand the formula to predict a recession?

 

[thx1139]

Your comments are full of emotional hurt and flight-or-fight response. Good. That's what the shorts are trying to achieve, and you've been played perfectly. That's why hedge funds exist, because they can make a quick buck.

In the long term however, you speak to demand. Yet you ignore that 60% of middle/red 'Murica was nearly violently opposed to EVs just a year ago. But now, by purchasing Twitter and making it a free-speech issue, Elon has romanced that half of the country, and become the Fox News/Business poster boy for rallying their cause. Which Elon is slowing twisting to become EV/renewables.

Converting a a few more Prius-driving sandal lovers in San Francisco (if they convert, it'll be to scooters) isn't going to move the needle on fossil fuel consumption. Its the F-150 4x4 powerstroke diesel heads that need a cognitive reset.

Just wait for the Cybertruck. It'll be here just in time.

Havent listened to any shorts at all. I am basing my thought on why I invested in Tesla in the 1st place. I did it for the mission. Why my kids invest in Tesla, why they wanted to purchase Tesla's themselves. I have avoided talking to them this week about Tesla. I have convinced other family members to invest in Tesla as well because of the mission. I invested because I 100% climate change is real and Elon seemed so sincere in his belief that climate change is real.

I dont believe at all that because Elon will allow people say whatever *sugar* they want on Twitter will make these people all of a sudden believe climate change is real. Remember they want to be able to say anti-science *sugar* that puts people in danger. You think they will make an exception for climate change. I dont think so. I honestly dont think people that got chuckles out of coal roller videos now what a Tesla.

We all have collectively hated when short sellers and anti-ev people could post all sorts of FUD about Tesla and EV's. Now Elon is backing that sort of *sugar* and some are celebrating.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I love both these guys' channels (Aging Wheels and Technology Connections), they did a fun video where they road trip an Hyundai Ioniq 5 and find that doing so was completely uneventful and boring, as road trips should be. Even remarking that every charging stop, the car would be done charging before one of them was done goofing off during the stop. At the end of the video they detail how much they "spent" on charging, but also disclose that Hyundai has a 2-year free* charging agreement with Electrify America, so they didn't pay anything at those EA stations (* free up to 30 minutes per DCFC session, which of course was plenty). Goes to show that (most) consumers really have no reason not to go fully electric as long as they buy reasonably designed vehicles, and any companies not embracing the future are going to be having a tough time as regular consumers catch on to this new reality.

 

[Ogre]

Musk isn’t your bitch. Nobody here has any business complaining about what Musk does or doesn’t unless it directly affects Tesla. Not “Tesla’s share price”. I know people think otherwise, but it’s not his job to manage the share price, it’s his job to manage the company.

On that front, Tesla is in better shape than it’s ever been. Tesla will be just fine with Musk running Twitter too. Musk hires competent managers and they know how to do the things they do without him holding their hand on a daily basis.

Remember Tesla? The business which sells EVs, solar and power storage solutions?

That’s what I care about. Can we please stick with that?

 

[GrandEnigma]

So, does Max Pain and Mr. Market save us this week? If not, there are a decent number of puts at 900 and 950 for this week.

 

[pitabun]

So do we find out if Elon sold post Twitter purchase today?