Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[nativewolf]

Tesla pays people to be in their showrooms and talk to people about the cars. While they are not "Sales" people in the sense that they are paid on a commission, I would call them sales people.

Yes, if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck..its a duck.

 

[Big Time]

With a 10:1 split TSLA would need to trade at 260/ share; 20:1 at 130/ share; 50:1 at 52/ share; 100:1 at 26/ share.

Ok, Trying to keep the valuation in mind. In a pure stock supply and demand scenario, if It splits 20:1 and was 60 per share, in my mind that stock hitting $420 seems ENTIRELY plausible and possible.....But that valuation would be astronomical. YES in the long term I do think that Tesla will be the first 5+ Trillion dollar company, but when that will take place I am not sure.

So at a $420 stock price post split if it was 20:1 the valuation would be nearly 10 trillion dollars.... I really don't know how to gauge any of this. If we go 20:1, do you expect the stock price to be sub $100 for years?

 

[15Peter20]

I just typed out these split possibilities per 100 shares. Wondering if you guys could help me determine at what levels that these valuations would become INSANE and where it might begin to surpass Google and Apple?

Thanks ahead of time.
-Big Time

Tesla Split Possibilities



2:1

200 Shares

Split @ $1,200 = $600 Per Share

Rises to $1,200 = $240,000

Rises to $2,000 = $400,000

Rises to $2,500 = $500,000

Rises to $3,000 = $600,000



5:1

500 Shares

Split @ 1,200 = $240 Per Share

Rises to $500 = $250,000

Rises to $700 = $350,000

Rises to $1,000 = $500,000

Rises to $1,200 = $600,000



10:1

1,000 Shares

Split @ 1,200 = $120 Per Share

Rises to $500 = $500,000

Rises to $700 = $700,000

Rises to $1,000 = $1,000,000

Rises to $1,200 = $1,200,000



15:1

1,500 Shares

Split @ 1,200 = $80 Per Share

Rises to $500 = $750,000

Rises to $700 = $1,050,000

Rises to $1,000 = $1,500,000

Rises to $1,200 = $1,800,000



20:1

2,000 Shares

Split @ 1,200 = $60 Per Share

Rises to $500 = $1,000,000

Rises to $700 = $1,400,000

Rises to $1,000 = $2,000,000

Rises to $1,200 = $2,400,000

 

[JimS]

The M3 ramp was terrible,

My comment has nothing to do with your post or the valid points you made. The above phase just triggered a thought that I want to share. My Model 3 had a build date of June 2018, which I believe was right smack dab in the middle of "production hell." It is, by far, the best car I have ever owned. When I took delivery I asked "where are the panel gaps?" (No, I didn't measure, so there may be some but certainly not noticeable.) I could mention here the one complaint I had with the car, but it was so petty that when I mentioned it to a stranger who was asking me about the car he said "so there's nothing wrong with the car." If Elon and the Tesla team can do such an excellent job during production hell, I can't imagine the quality being produced at all three of the newer giga-factories. Just one of many good reasons to HODL!

 

[Big Time]

MODS: Edited for Stupidity: Tesla Split Possibilities
Pre-Split, Per 100 Shares



2:1
200 Shares
Split @ $1,200 = $600 Per Share
Rises to $700 = $140,000
Rises to $800 = $160,000
Rises to $900 = $180,000
Rises to $1000 = $200,000
Rises to $1100 = $220,000
Rises to $1200 = $240,000
Rises to $1300 = $260,000 * Nearing Apples Valuation
Rises to $1400 = $280,000

5:1
500 Shares
Split @ 1,200 = $240 Per Share
Rises to $300 = $150,000
Rises to $400 = $200,000
Rises to $500 = $250,000 * Nearing Apples Valuation
Rises to $600 = $300,000

10:1
1,000 Shares
Split @ 1,200 = $120 Per Share
Rises to $150 = $150,000
Rises to $200 = $200,000
Rises to $250 = $250,000 * Nearing Apples Valuation
Rises to $300 = $300,000

15:1
1,500 Shares
Split @ 1,200 = $80 Per Share
Rises to $100 = $150,000
Rises to $120 = $180,000
Rises to $140 = $210,000
Rises to $160 = $240,000
Rises to $180 = $270,000 * Nearing Apples Valuation
Rises to $200 = $300,000

20:1
2,000 Shares
Split @ 1,200 = $60 Per Share
Rises to $70 = $140,000
Rises to $80 = $160,000
Rises to $90 = $180,000
Rises to $100 = $200,000
Rises to $110 = $220,000
Rises to $120 = $240,000
Rises to $130 = $260,000 * Nearing Apples Valuation
Rises to $140 = $280,000
Rises to $150 = $300,000

 

[UncaNed]

Of course Apple won't trade sideways and Apple has a dividend so this all gets weird and sideways.

Thanks for clearing it all up for us.

/s

 

[Krugerrand]

How long have you been waiting to post that as a response?

 

[Krugerrand]

MODS: Edited for Stupidity: Tesla Split Possibilities
Pre-Split, Per 100 Shares



2:1
200 Shares
Split @ $1,200 = $600 Per Share
Rises to $700 = $140,000
Rises to $800 = $160,000
Rises to $900 = $180,000
Rises to $1000 = $200,000
Rises to $1100 = $220,000
Rises to $1200 = $240,000
Rises to $1300 = $260,000 * Nearing Apples Valuation
Rises to $1400 = $280,000

5:1
500 Shares
Split @ 1,200 = $240 Per Share
Rises to $300 = $150,000
Rises to $400 = $200,000
Rises to $500 = $250,000 * Nearing Apples Valuation
Rises to $600 = $300,000

10:1
1,000 Shares
Split @ 1,200 = $120 Per Share
Rises to $150 = $150,000
Rises to $200 = $200,000
Rises to $250 = $250,000 * Nearing Apples Valuation
Rises to $300 = $300,000

15:1
1,500 Shares
Split @ 1,200 = $80 Per Share
Rises to $100 = $150,000
Rises to $120 = $180,000
Rises to $140 = $210,000
Rises to $160 = $240,000
Rises to $180 = $270,000 * Nearing Apples Valuation
Rises to $200 = $300,000

20:1
2,000 Shares
Split @ 1,200 = $60 Per Share
Rises to $70 = $140,000
Rises to $80 = $160,000
Rises to $90 = $180,000
Rises to $100 = $200,000
Rises to $110 = $220,000
Rises to $120 = $240,000
Rises to $130 = $260,000 * Nearing Apples Valuation
Rises to $140 = $280,000
Rises to $150 = $300,000

I’m going to require you to start with more than 100 shares.

 

[Big Time]

I’m going to require you to start with more than 100 shares.

Just starting with the 2nd order of magnitude, im not elite enough for the next.

 

[Thekiwi]

CNBC is reporting WSJ reporting EM is discussing taking TWTR public after taking it private. This being said to co-investors.

This is how most “take private” transactions work. Private equity takes a company private, slashes costs (Layoffs & curbs frivolous items, slows R&D spending etc), usually sells off some parts, loads up on more debt while removing cash, then floats the company again at a higher value.

 

[Thekiwi]

Thanks for clearing it all up for us.

/s

Don’t forget that Apple has also returned a massive amount of capital to shareholders - last quarter they surpassed the half a trillion dollar mark on their buyback total ($507 Billion). Everything else being equal, Apple market cap would be $507 billion higher today if it hadn’t done a buyback (but the share price would be lower with all those shares bought back still instead being outstanding)

 

[Prunesquallor]

My comment has nothing to do with your post or the valid points you made. The above phase just triggered a thought that I want to share. My Model 3 had a build date of June 2018, which I believe was right smack dab in the middle of "production hell." It is, by far, the best car I have ever owned. When I took delivery I asked "where are the panel gaps?" (No, I didn't measure, so there may be some but certainly not noticeable.) I could mention here the one complaint I had with the car, but it was so petty that when I mentioned it to a stranger who was asking me about the car he said "so there's nothing wrong with the car." If Elon and the Tesla team can do such an excellent job during production hell, I can't imagine the quality being produced at all three of the newer giga-factories. Just one of many good reasons to HODL!

My M3 has the same build date. It also has been superb.

 

[ZachF]

They will never give up.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1521575733646270465

Must be harder to find lawyers in Germany that accept payment in rubles these days.

 

[JustMe]

Don’t forget that Apple has also returned a massive amount of capital to shareholders - last quarter they surpassed the half a trillion dollar mark on their buyback total ($507 Billion). Everything else being equal, Apple market cap would be $507 billion higher today if it hadn’t done a buyback (but the share price would be lower with all those shares bought back still instead being outstanding)

Half a trillion here, half a trillion there… pretty soon you’re talking real money!

 

[Ogre]

This is how most “take private” transactions work. Private equity takes a company private, slashes costs (Layoffs & curbs frivolous items, slows R&D spending etc), usually sells off some parts, loads up on more debt while removing cash, then floats the company again at a higher value.

It's just like flipping a house but on a bigger scale. Buy a distressed property. Fix the foundation, clean out of bunch of trash, install a replace a few windows, new paint, maybe new roof, then back on the market.

Only instead of tossing out some old trash you have to fire a couple hundred employees.

But Musk is trying to do more than just shave costs, trying to change out the whole revenue stream.

 

[MC3OZ]

I found it interesting that the Shanghai expansion will make Model 3 and Model Y.

I now have a hunch Model 3 may only be made in Fremont and Shanghai for the foreseeable future, and may not have front and rear castings for some time.
Model 3 might continue to use 2170 and LFP pack for sometime.,

Hence, 4680 cell production and Gigacastings will be used for Model Y, Cybertruck and some other (new) models.

If will be very interesting to see what model Berlin builds next after Model Y. If could still be Model 3, but rather than engineering a new version of Model 3, they might choose to design a new compact model.

 

[Cosmacelf]

This is how most “take private” transactions work. Private equity takes a company private, slashes costs (Layoffs & curbs frivolous items, slows R&D spending etc), usually sells off some parts, loads up on more debt while removing cash, then floats the company again at a higher value.

Exactly. Twitter will be private for 2 to 4 years and then either get sold to some other large company (maybe Google by then), or do an IPO.

 

[insaneoctane]

Next time someone asks what PE compression is, show them this TSLA visual aid…

 

[Ogre]

I found it interesting that the Shanghai expansion will make Model 3 and Model Y.

I now have a hunch Model 3 may only be made in Fremont and Shanghai for the foreseeable future, and may not have front and rear castings for some time.
Model 3 might continue to use 2170 and LFP pack for sometime.,

Hence, 4680 cell production and Gigacastings will be used for Model Y, Cybertruck and some other (new) models.

If will be very interesting to see what model Berlin builds next after Model Y. If could still be Model 3, but rather than engineering a new version of Model 3, they might choose to design a new compact model.

I would find it odd for Tesla to build a new assembly line for the Model 3/ Y and not use Gigacastings.

 

[JustSaying]

My comment has nothing to do with your post or the valid points you made. The above phase just triggered a thought that I want to share. My Model 3 had a build date of June 2018, which I believe was right smack dab in the middle of "production hell." It is, by far, the best car I have ever owned. When I took delivery I asked "where are the panel gaps?" (No, I didn't measure, so there may be some but certainly not noticeable.) I could mention here the one complaint I had with the car, but it was so petty that when I mentioned it to a stranger who was asking me about the car he said "so there's nothing wrong with the car." If Elon and the Tesla team can do such an excellent job during production hell, I can't imagine the quality being produced at all three of the newer giga-factories. Just one of many good reasons to HODL!

Our old 2018 Model 3 Vin number 99XX to my eye was near perfect , we sold it at 50K miles. Maintenance cost $1k for a set of tires.