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betstarship
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I feel so much better about humanity after watching that all-in interview.
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I'm not saying that Apple's P/E ratio was logical or fair. It wasn't. Especially 2008-2011. There was clear disconnect between 2009 and 2011 with the stock. Also, coincidentally that was the 2008 financial crisis. The worst crisis since the great depression.You are glossing over the fact that Apple’s PE ratio in 2010/2011 was already pricing it like it was either never going to grow, or that it was going to go out of business. It doubled its net income between 2011 & 2015, yet its PE ratio continually touched 10x - it was an insane disconnect from reality.
Apples annual net income increased from $14 Billion in 2010 to $102 Billion today, an annual decade long CAGR of almost 20%. Yet it didn’t trade over a PE ratio of 20x consistently until 2020.
Your own chart shows that the market rebounded while the Fed's continued to reduce their balance sheet. In fact the market was already back up to it's high's before the Fed's even reached the end of their reduction of their balance sheet.
Also, no the market can't just determine that Tesla's P/E will go from 30 to 15 in a vaccum.........if Tesla's continues posting 50% revenue growth/80-100% earnings growth. I think people way overgeneralize in that if the markets down this much or is in a bear market, no stock can have a high P/E ratio. But that's simply not true, as I pointed out in the post about Apple, they had years of flat earnings growth and a few negative earnings growth. Their lowest P/E ratio years corresponded to the years of flat earnings or declining earnings.
Nvidia's P/E during the 2010's was around 15-20 in it's lowest P/E ratio years of the 2010's. Wanna guess Nvidia's earnings for those years? Flat......In fact flat earnings year after year after year. So the low P/E was in direct relation to that. Once their earnings started to show growth again, their P/E jumped back up into the 30's, then the 40's, then the 50's. So there's direct relation to the P/E given to a company and it's actual earnings growth, Irregardless of whether the market is in a bear market or not
You are cherry picking data there and ignoring multiple consecutive high growth years ($37 Billion in 2013 to $53 Billion in 2015 for instance) where the PE ratio was still dropping to 10x or less. That is the irrational reality that can happen for even high growth stocks like Tesla.I'm not saying that Apple's P/E ratio was logical or fair. It wasn't. Especially 2008-2011. There was clear disconnect between 2009 and 2011 with the stock. Also, coincidentally that was the 2008 financial crisis. The worst crisis since the great depression.
But what I'm saying is after that, Apple growth did slow tremendously when it came to net income. I mean you're talking 41 billion in 2012 and just 57 billion 8 years later. That's why it's P/E was so low in the years following the financial crisis - 2012-2019.
OK , I'm out. See you suckers later. ELON, uh Bitcoin, Twitter. Too much. Taking my earnings and buying a Mach-E. And an e-Hummer to tow it with.It moved sideways with lots of drama for most of 2017-2019, then it just shot upward one day, and continued on to more than 10x.
That same spring being pulled down then is being pulled down now.
I guess we’ll know a spike is imminent when someone here pulls a Neroden.
Yeah. Dont think he’s moving to Austin soon.He sold all his baller homes for his own reasons though. Spealking of mansions, Franz just bought a huuuge one.
Only 86 Y/day current run rate in Berlin so far, according to teslamag‘s own sources (I think they’re reliable). More details in the article (use google translate)
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IIRC there was a lot of FUD about Apple during this period .. in fact from the release of the iphone... the FUD was extreme ... and it worked IMOYou are glossing over the fact that Apple’s PE ratio in 2010/2011 was already pricing it like it was either never going to grow, or that it was going to go out of business. It doubled its net income between 2011 & 2015, yet its PE ratio continually touched 10x - it was an insane disconnect from reality.
Apples annual net income increased from $14 Billion in 2010 to $102 Billion today, an annual decade long CAGR of almost 20%. Yet it didn’t trade over a PE ratio of 20x consistently until 2020.
At least TSLA , even at its current price level, is currently priced for a large amount of earnings growth, albeit much less growth than we here expect.
To be fair to him, most people expect public filings to be honest and accurate to the best of the company's ability and knowledge. Elon was expecting this. But now he's finding out otherwise, and even more to the point, he's finding it hard to get real answers when he asks. He really is starting to sound skeptical the deal will be done, even when asked point blank is the deal on or no, he dithered and refused to answer concretely. I hope and pray he walks away, for the good of Tesla investors and his other companies investors and also humanity. He's too important to be wasted on >80% bots on a social media platform when we are busy warming the Earth beyond our ability to inhabit it.Wish he had done his homework before jumping in.
Man after that All-In interview, the probability of Elon buying Twitter went down the drain (unless he is picking it up $4.20). And I see Twitter stock dropping double digit percentages tomorrow with class action lawsuits coming. I am not sure if investors or Twitter will sue Elon or not but the most influential person on Earth just said Twitter has at least 20% bots but could be 50 or 80%? This alone just tanked twitter's ad revenue to a whole lot of nothing.To be fair to him, most people expect public filings to be honest and accurate to the best of the company's ability and knowledge. Elon was expecting this. But now he's finding out otherwise, and even more to the point, he's finding it hard to get real answers when he asks. He really is starting to sound skeptical the deal will be done, even when asked point blank is the deal on or no, he dithered and refused to answer concretely. I hope and pray he walks away, for the good of Tesla investors and his other companies investors and also humanity. He's too important to be wasted on >80% bots on a social media platform when we are busy warming the Earth beyond our ability to inhabit it.
We need some solid good news to restore confidence
Sadly I don't think we are going to get it until Q3. The market is trending down right now, and Q2 for Tesla is going to be an outlier due to the Shanghai lockdown.
I don't think he'll ever buy back his shares. He has enough as it is and if he hypothetically gets out of twitter, he'll just hold the billions he has as cash for something else.
Well I would settle for Elon giving up on Twitter and buying back his shares.
No I'm not really ignoring anything. I mean we're both cherry picking data to some degree haha.You are cherry picking data there and ignoring multiple consecutive high growth years ($37 Billion in 2013 to $53 Billion in 2015 for instance) where the PE ratio was still dropping to 10x or less. That is the irrational reality that can happen for even high growth stocks like Tesla.
casual observers lacking context on historical earnings are the same with every company, not just tesla.
I can look at those decade of Apple earnings and tell you the underlying reasons (new country rollouts, product release date movements between financial years, missed but corrected product trends, geographic market irregularity caused by form factors, the US dollar strength/weakness impact on earnings, the change in taxations policy in 2019, the product mix shifting from hardware to services and impact on margins etc) - but for 99% of investors seeing those figures they would have no idea and just look at that trend in a simplistic manner.
Well, the same thing can happen with Tesla, an uninformed investor 6 months from now will see slowdown in sequential growth pop up on the historical chart this quarter and not know that GigaShanghai was severely impacted by covid lockdowns, Berlin & Austin were only just starting their product ramps etc. They will also not know how large the impact of the CEO stock compensation was in previous periods, or how strong the underlying unit growth and margins were for the last several years by just looking at net income levels and not understanding operating leverage.
To be fair to him, most people expect public filings to be honest and accurate to the best of the company's ability and knowledge. Elon was expecting this. But now he's finding out otherwise, and even more to the point, he's finding it hard to get real answers when he asks.
We thank you for your service.OK , I'm out. See you suckers later. ELON, uh Bitcoin, Twitter. Too much. Taking my earnings and buying a Mach-E. And an e-Hummer to tow it with.
/s