Made some slight changes to my estimates for this year's valuations using price to sales.
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | annual |
2021 | 180 | 206 | 238 | 305 | 929 |
2022 | 305 | 250 | 375 | 487.5 | 1417.5 |
Q2 I revised back down from 305 to 250 based on China's slower restart.
For Q3 there are estimates that we are at a 1.5 million vehicle runrate so I went with 375k vehicles.
For Q4 I used an estimated growth from Q3 of 30% to come to 487.5k vehicles.
Overall this results in a lower annual production closer to 1.4 million vehicles.
Here are the corresponding production and revenue numbers. I over simplify and use an average revenue per vehicle. I did increase this by $1,000 to $59,000 revenue per vehicle produced. This is to reflect the price increases which will effect revenue per vehicle for the next several quarters
2022 | q1 | q2 | q3 | q4 |
trailing production | 1054 | 1098 | 1235 | 1417.5 |
trailing revenue | 62,190,000 | 64,782,000 | 72,865,000 | 83,632,500 |
And here is share price estimates using corresponding Price to sales ratios:
price/sales | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
10.3 | 620 | 646 | 726 | 833 |
15 | 903 | 940 | 1,058 | 1,214 |
20 | 1,203 | 1,254 | 1,410 | 1,618 |
For the low end we hit just over $617 per share which corresponds to just under a 10.3 price to sales ratio.
Using this backwards looking valuation method I see a reasonable price range for Tesla by year end between $833-$1,618.
I lean toward the optimistic and believe the macro factors that are heavily weighing on the stock will subside as we approach the end of the year.
By year end I believe we will be trading over $500 per share. Post-split of course