Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AndrewZ]

For some perspective on the competition in robotics, Boston Dynamics was posting videos of Spot using autonomous vision-based 2D->3D scene building and navigation back in 2018

It's not too uncommon to see these wandering around in my line of work, I've seen a few on industrial sites where they're used to perform inspections and such in hazardous environments

 

[nativewolf]

As long as it can reliably pull weeds in my yard and watch over package thieves I don't care.

Why would t they just steal the robot?

 

[bkp_duke]

I so hate linking to this site, but this is BIG new on the Tesla Energy side of things:

Tesla launches new virtual power plant that pays Powerwall owners to help end brownouts

Tesla launches a new virtual power plant with PG&E in California that pays Powerwalls owners to help stabilize the electric grid.

electrek.co

 

[Discoducky]

For some perspective on the competition in robotics, Boston Dynamics was posting videos of Spot using autonomous vision-based 2D->3D scene building and navigation back in 2018

It's not too uncommon to see these wandering around in my line of work, I've seen a few on industrial sites where they're used to perform inspections and such in hazardous environments

I respect what they've accomplished, however it all deterministic code, no AI. All programming is static as opposed to learning.

Their hardware seems impressive, however appears to be more simple mechanical prototypes rather than complex multi articulated joints and a purely functional design to complete basic tasks.

I expect Elon is targeting much more complex tasks which requires AI and several material, battery and architecture challenges that BD hasn't demonstrated.

 

[StealthP3D]

One aspect of TMC that does annoy me a bit is that there's a philosophy here that when you're making investments, you have to have a multi-year horizon and be ok with losing money. Which is true.......as an investor. The dynamic for employees who count on RSU's as big part of their current income, to make big purchases, or for their retirement is completely different. Employees don't have the luxury as investors because most of the time, the investor's money is money that has already been made and it there to gain in value. A investor has time on their side, an employee doesn't have that same luxury.

I disagree with that. A dollar is a dollar no matter where it comes from. For a working person, it all comes down to whether you spend less than you make. We lived like poor college students even after we had made our first million (other than owning the very modest, small, older house we lived in). Crates for furniture, a used motorcycle and used car rather than new, value village clothes, no TV, etc. My work was seasonal but I was always willing to take on physical work, particularly if it paid me to provide the benefits of a gym membership. We bought tools, not toys. Our mountain bikes did not cost thousands of dollars. We figured out ways to have healthy diet without spending a lot of money. Life was an adventure, even if we were kept busy doing productive things.

It seems young people these days think they need all the trappings of wealth before they have made any. Consumerism, "nice" things, and debt are the enemy of investing and building wealth. Younger employees have lots of time on their side if they are willing to use it by refusing to buy stuff and stop trying to keep up with the rich kids.

 

[Matias]

I so hate linking to this site, but this is BIG new on the Tesla Energy side of things:

Tesla launches new virtual power plant that pays Powerwall owners to help end brownouts

Tesla launches a new virtual power plant with PG&E in California that pays Powerwalls owners to help stabilize the electric grid.

electrek.co

"$2 for every additional kWh your Powerwall delivers during an event."

Wow. That is a lot.

 

[Discoducky]

I so hate linking to this site, but this is BIG new on the Tesla Energy side of things:

Tesla launches new virtual power plant that pays Powerwall owners to help end brownouts

Tesla launches a new virtual power plant with PG&E in California that pays Powerwalls owners to help stabilize the electric grid.

electrek.co

Wow! I want my $2!

"Through the Emergency Load Reduction Program (ELRP) pilot, you will receive $2 for every additional kWh your Powerwall delivers during an event."

Edit: Ninja'd by @Matias

 

[bkp_duke]

"$2 for every additional kWh your Powerwall delivers during an event."

Wow. That is a lot.

Yeah, I'll discharge all my PWs anytime they want for that rate.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I don’t agree completely with this (as someone who had both stock options and RSUs). These days salaries are competitive in the marketplace, and RSUs are more like bonuses (unlike in the old days when one went to work for a startup with starting salaries way below the market rates). You don’t lose money with RSUs as they are given to you (as opposed to stock options with strike price). As with bonuses, one should not count on it if one is prudent with one’s financial!

I would say this response is exactly what I'm talking about. That's great about your situation.

That's not the case for many others. Even those that work in tech. Quite a few employees rely on their RSU's as income just as much as their salary. And no, your signing bonus RSU allotment is not just a "bonus". It's a significant amount of your total compensation spread out over 4 years.

Anywyays, I'm just mentioning what I'm hearing from Tesla employees themselves (granted it's mainly from one team that is a pretty small part of Tesla). You can choose to ignore it if you want. But it's never a great thing to have your employees annoyed and some quite pissed off that their CEO continually keeps putting pressure on the stock.

 

[betstarship]

Sure, check the other threads and this YouTube video has some solid data after 1 year of production

I so hate linking to this site, but this is BIG new on the Tesla Energy side of things:

Tesla launches new virtual power plant that pays Powerwall owners to help end brownouts

Tesla launches a new virtual power plant with PG&E in California that pays Powerwalls owners to help stabilize the electric grid.

electrek.co

Thanks, all very informative and helpful!

 

[AndrewZ]

I respect what they've accomplished, however it all deterministic code, no AI. All programming is static as opposed to learning.

Their hardware seems impressive, however appears to be more simple mechanical prototypes rather than complex multi articulated joints and a purely functional design to complete basic tasks.

I expect Elon is targeting much more complex tasks which requires AI and several material, battery and architecture challenges that BD hasn't demonstrated.

Good on Elon for looking to push it forward

I've been watching FSD Beta very closely from the start and can't help but think about how much more complicated it will be to build a robot and machine learning AI that can function in a 3D space.

Think we all know how challenging it has been to refine Autosteer on City Streets, and that mostly involves travelling across a 2D plane with forward/back and left/right in a road environment structured with signage and hard rules. Imagine the challenges in trying to do that same thing with a robot that moves in 3D space and getting the motors and actuators to do what you want them to do.

 

[Ogre]

Good on Elon for looking to push it forward

I've been watching FSD Beta very closely from the start and can't help but think about how much more complicated it will be to build a robot and machine learning AI that can function in a 3D space.

Think we all know how challenging it has been to refine Autosteer on City Streets, and that mostly involves travelling across a 2D plane with forward/back and left/right in a road environment structured with signage and hard rules. Imagine the challenges in trying to do that same thing with a robot that moves in 3D space and getting the motors and actuators to do what you want them to do.

Keep in mind, FSD is tough because the consequences are huge and the speeds are high.

If Optimus mis-folds laundry, nobody dies. If it drops your Amazon package, it's not a big deal. I suspect a big part of why Optimus is being designed to be a fairly weak robot is so mistakes are low-risk. If they were making a fast/ heavy lifting robot they would have a different approach.

 

[jerry33]

Good on Elon for looking to push it forward

I've been watching FSD Beta very closely from the start and can't help but think about how much more complicated it will be to build a robot and machine learning AI that can function in a 3D space.

Think we all know how challenging it has been to refine Autosteer on City Streets, and that mostly involves travelling across a 2D plane with forward/back and left/right in a road environment structured with signage and hard rules. Imagine the challenges in trying to do that same thing with a robot that moves in 3D space and getting the motors and actuators to do what you want them to do.

The difference is the time factor. A robot might move at 3 or 4 mph, not 30-90 mph.

 

[MartinAustin]

For all the "fretters" that Elon's comments about losing billions at the factories are tanking TSLA... giving the FUDsters the perfect ammo they need, etc. - consider this: any lackadaisical investor who reacts to headlines and hit-pieces by selling their TSLA or staying on the sidelines on the day they had been planning to buy... are going to get a big surprise around July 20th when Tesla reports an ENORMOUS Q2 $PROFIT. Don't forget all the price hikes from last year are really starting to kick in. (Sure... Shanghai shutdown is a negative)

Meanwhile, everyone who has been buying through all this will reap the rewards.

The media will act just as surprised as they always do and NEVER use language like "Tesla continues its unassailable conquest of the car world, disrupting multiple energy & manufacturing industries, delivering their 11th straight profitable quarter and the 7th time they broke their own record in a row"

Only people who get unreasonably hurt by Elon's brutal honesty are folks who were planning on selling some stock for some good reason.

 

[damonbrodie]

I don’t agree completely with this (as someone who had both stock options and RSUs). These days salaries are competitive in the marketplace, and RSUs are more like bonuses (unlike in the old days when one went to work for a startup with starting salaries way below the market rates). You don’t lose money with RSUs as they are given to you (as opposed to stock options with strike price). As with bonuses, one should not count on it if one is prudent with one’s financial!

RSUs aren't the only way employees get stock. There are also SPP (stock purchase plans) where often the employer will pay for a percentage of the amount purchased. For example my employer kicks in 15% (as well as the income tax that would have been incurred from this benefit).

 

[ammulder]

Are they open to feedback? I've also worked with UI / UX development for years and the last major update at the end of 2021 was a head scratcher for me. I view it as a step backwards, making it harder to do things and hiding useful information. I question whether the team is testing in a vehicle while driving. I'd very much like the opportunity to choose older versions of the UI. And I still wonder why car "vision" display needs to take up 30% of my display when I'm driving my vehicle. A larger map would be much more useful. I can give more feedback if it is welcomed.

Wow, would be golden if they were open to feedback. How about: "Make larger fonts available for time, temp, etc. -- not everybody has young eyes any more," and "Move the main controls icon away from the far lower-left on the Model X Refresh, since the yoke blocks the view of that part of the screen".

 

[GOVA]

Why would t they just steal the robot?

because it'd puncture their balls or brains.

Can't wait for AI/robots competitions v3. Instead of RF 'robots' controlled by humans, AI woluld comptete in a robot body.

 

[AndrewZ]

The difference is the time factor. A robot might move at 3 or 4 mph, not 30-90 mph.

Keep in mind, FSD is tough because the consequences are huge and the speeds are high.

If Optimus mis-folds laundry, nobody dies. If it drops your Amazon package, it's not a big deal. I suspect a big part of why Optimus is being designed to be a fairly weak robot is so mistakes are low-risk. If they were making a fast/ heavy lifting robot they would have a different approach.

To be fair, most Autosteer on City Streets driving is happening at lower speeds and especially the more complicated challenging maneuvers. Autopilot and highway speeds are a different story, but that's generally travelling in a straight line or gentle curves with lane changes and not crazy stuff like pulling off unprotected left turns through traffic flow.

The lack of public safety implications should really allow some big latitude though in the development

 

[Discoducky]

Quick data point.

I'm currently at Tesla Bellevue waiting on a tire fix.

This place is buzzing and folks are hustling.

End of quarter push.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I used smart as an antonym of stupid, which was the word used in the original post. Many people do think Toyota leadership is stupid, and I’m one of them. Either that or they’re shortsighted, greedy and unethical to the point that they are willing to effectively commit mass murder which is undoubtedly the net statistical result of unnecessarily perpetuating ICEV sales, especially considering their current position as the largest carmaker in the world.

Pushing for hydrogen fuel cells is also stupid. Last I checked, Toyota are the only ones still seriously pursuing this technology with plans to invest trillions of Yen into developing it. Engineering and management resources always have an opportunity cost. Toyota could have used those resources for BEV development instead of dividing their budget and attention.

Maybe Toyota weren’t ignoring EVs, but if they were spreading misinformation about EVs, running misleading ads about “self-charging” EVs (hybrids), and actively fighting legislation supporting EVs then arguably that’s worse than just ignoring.

Having top secret developmental prototypes for years and not mass producing them is worthless. Rivian did that too and look how that’s working out for them. Rivian at least is 100% in on EVs and only is doing two models; Toyota is taking this ill-advised strategy to the extreme with 30 models and four powertrain architectures while still planning to have the majority of their car sales include combustion engines in 2030.

It’s too late for Toyota and they are screwed. Some other legacy OEMs still have a chance at transitioning, but Toyota is done.

I think Toyoda loves the respect, even adoration he gets from suppliers, Japanese government & in general. Moving to EVs is an earthquake to suppliers & he'll lose what he enjoys most. I suspect he surrounds himself with Yes-Men and he's had too much power for too long.

It will be a rude awakening for Toyoda, Toyota, suppliers, Japanese Government & people.