Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Drezil]

And the actual record of the energiwende factoring in cost (basically highest electricity prices in the world now) and real world co2 reductions (Germany probably will have the highest co2 per KWh of any Western European country) is mixed at best, and currently they are getting destroyed in actual renewable generation growth by China and the USA.

Well.. Energiewende started under Schröder with the SPD & Greens in government. From 1998-2003. In 2004 Merkel came along with neocon (Conservatives of CDU and liberals from FDP) to cancel most of it (i.e. all energy-intensive industry was suddenly exempt the EEG, a fee for subsidizing renewable.. doubling the penalty to the consumer).. the from 2008-2020 we had 3 terms of SPD & CDU under Merkel .. now we have "traffic-light"-government.. SPD + Greens + FDP (the neocons .. yellow)...
The course to get us hooked on russian gas was a present from Schröder when he left office in 2003 and headed onto the board of Gazprom.. and all conservatives just strengthened the dependency on russia further ..
Now the Green Minister of Commerce is building the biggest LNG-Terminal in the baltic to get at least rid of the dependency from russia without sacrificing the CO2-reductions from ending coal.. He only is Minister since November and has to clean up 16 years of neocon-mess....

We were leading in renewables in 2004. Then they sacrificed 70k jobs in solar (and everything migrated to china) in 2006/07.. since 2016 they go heavily after wind as well. 30k jobs gone. Last producer of commercial windmills (for electricity) went bankrupt some weeks ago.
And the "coal-exit" compromise saves the 30k jobs in coal extraction & consumption .. getting subsidized on average by 500k € per worker over the next 10-30 years...

So .. it is a bit more complicated than Energiewende caused the high prices, energy mix is still crap.. it was the explicit policy from conservatives in the last 16 years. Your guess how that came to be .. *cough*lobbying*cough*..

BTW: we still do not have the UNO Anti-Lobbying-Law (only one of 5 countries in the world or so) .. As a politician corruption is only outlawed when you explicitly buy a concrete vote on a concrete law... so go figure

 

[Prunesquallor]

Competition is coming... actually looks pretty good

See Rivian's EV Manufacturing Line in Action

Rivian says that its Normal, Illinois plant is on track to build 25,000 EVs in 2022. Take a look at how they're doing it.

www.batterytechonline.com

Saw my first Rivian in the wild the other day. Had to explain to my passenger what it was.

“What is that?”
”It’s a Rivian. An electric pickup.”
”Who makes it?”
”Rivian”.
”No, I mean which car company?”
“Rivian”.

Much googling followed.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla EPS surprises over the last few quarters. The tendency is to surprise on the upside, but not guaranteed. There's more data, but a few are so large that they mess up the chart. For example:
07/22/2020 544.90%
04/29/2020 663.64%

Data from TSLA: Tesla - Price & EPS Surprise - Zacks.com

here's the raw data... they have had positive surprises 14 of last 20 quarters
Date, EPS beat

04/20/2022	49.77%
01/26/2022	20.38%
10/20/2021	33.81%
07/26/2021	61.11%
04/26/2021	17.72%
01/27/2021	-11.11%
10/21/2020	38.18%
07/22/2020	544.90%
04/29/2020	663.64%
01/29/2020	32.10%
10/23/2019	1340.00%
07/24/2019	-107.41%
04/24/2019	-139.67%
01/30/2019	-7.21%
10/24/2018	627.27%
08/01/2018	-10.07%
05/02/2018	0.59%
02/07/2018	4.70%
11/01/2017	-19.18%
08/02/2017	31.44%

 

[SOULPEDL]

I think earnings under $1.50 will be viewed as “bad” and over $2 will be viewed as “good”.

I think Tesla can beat $2, but there is an appreciable level of financial noise in this quarter.

Q3 and Q4 gonna be lit though.

I thought earnings were always bad, until people figured out what just happened a few days later.

I've been doing a little trading on a small percentage of TSLA holdings. Accepting that some of these shares might not make it to the finish line, the swings are quite wide so hard to miss, so far. I might go for another try sometime today, we'll see.

Tesla's production pause in China was at the start of quarter which means that they've had 2 months to adjust costs, prices, expenses etc. (Much better than if it happened EoQ.) But as was mentioned this week here, the Factory startups may have had a $ impact.

 

[ZachF]

Saw my first Rivian in the wild the other day. Had to explain my to passenger what it was.

“What is that?”
”It’s a Rivian. An electric pickup.”
”Who makes it?”
”Rivian”.
”No, I mean which car company?”
“Rivian”.

Much googling followed.

Saw my first Rivian here in rural NH a few days ago too during a run. Also saw a polestar a couple weeks ago.

 

[transpondster]

"Preproduction" Berlin MY being sold in Norway?

 

[ZachF]

Well.. Energiewende started under Schröder with the SPD & Greens in government. From 1998-2003. In 2004 Merkel came along with neocon (Conservatives of CDU and liberals from FDP) to cancel most of it (i.e. all energy-intensive industry was suddenly exempt the EEG, a fee for subsidizing renewable.. doubling the penalty to the consumer).. the from 2008-2020 we had 3 terms of SPD & CDU under Merkel .. now we have "traffic-light"-government.. SPD + Greens + FDP (the neocons .. yellow)...
The course to get us hooked on russian gas was a present from Schröder when he left office in 2003 and headed onto the board of Gazprom.. and all conservatives just strengthened the dependency on russia further ..
Now the Green Minister of Commerce is building the biggest LNG-Terminal in the baltic to get at least rid of the dependency from russia without sacrificing the CO2-reductions from ending coal.. He only is Minister since November and has to clean up 16 years of neocon-mess....

We were leading in renewables in 2004. Then they sacrificed 70k jobs in solar (and everything migrated to china) in 2006/07.. since 2016 they go heavily after wind as well. 30k jobs gone. Last producer of commercial windmills (for electricity) went bankrupt some weeks ago.
And the "coal-exit" compromise saves the 30k jobs in coal extraction & consumption .. getting subsidized on average by 500k € per worker over the next 10-30 years...

So .. it is a bit more complicated than Energiewende caused the high prices, energy mix is still crap.. it was the explicit policy from conservatives in the last 16 years. Your guess how that came to be .. *cough*lobbying*cough*..

BTW: we still do not have the UNO Anti-Lobbying-Law (only one of 5 countries in the world or so) .. As a politician corruption is only outlawed when you explicitly buy a concrete vote on a concrete law... so go figure

Doing some research, German CO2 emissions per KWh are the second highest in Western Europe, only beaten by the Dutch and only slightly better than the USA.

Carbon intensity of electricity generation

Carbon intensity is measured in grams of carbon dioxide-equivalents emitted per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated.

ourworldindata.org

549g China
527g Australia
488g Singapore
461g Japan
442g South Korea
386g Netherlands
379g United States
364g Germany
363g Greece
361g Ireland
341g Italy
268g United Kingdom
240g Denmark
223g Portugal
194g Spain
184g Luxembourg
156g Belgium
153g Finland
149g New Zealand
145g Austria
124g Canada
68g France
59g Switzerland
44g Sweden
29g Iceland
26g Norway

Considering that Germany is now restarting coal plants (/)to replace the lost German gas and the six nuclear plants its shutting down, co2 emissions per KWh will certainly rise to well over 400g per KWh this year and next year (It was 497 in Germany in 2002).

Germany’s recent growth hasn’t been too impressive either, here is solar generation (source BP global energy outlook)… compare Germany to China, the US or even Japan from 2015 to now:

Paying the highest prices in Western Europe with the highest Co2 emissions doesn’t seem like much of a success to me…

 

[insaneoctane]

Some comical FUD...."the Street" headline is: "Elon Musk Launches New Attack Against GM and Joe Biden". After drama build up, the article finally shows the "attack":

https://twitter.com/x/status/1549440612021243906

Then, only in the last paragraph clears up some genuine facts about Barra "leading". Article is by Luc Olinga if interested, not posting the link...

 

[insaneoctane]

Tesla EPS surprises over the last few quarters. The tendency is to surprise on the upside, but not guaranteed. There's more data, but a few are so large that they mess up the chart. For example:
07/22/2020 544.90%
04/29/2020 663.64%

Data from TSLA: Tesla - Price & EPS Surprise - Zacks.com

View attachment 830606

here's the raw data... they have had positive surprises 14 of last 20 quarters
Date, EPS beat

04/20/2022	49.77%
01/26/2022	20.38%
10/20/2021	33.81%
07/26/2021	61.11%
04/26/2021	17.72%
01/27/2021	-11.11%
10/21/2020	38.18%
07/22/2020	544.90%
04/29/2020	663.64%
01/29/2020	32.10%
10/23/2019	1340.00%
07/24/2019	-107.41%
04/24/2019	-139.67%
01/30/2019	-7.21%
10/24/2018	627.27%
08/01/2018	-10.07%
05/02/2018	0.59%
02/07/2018	4.70%
11/01/2017	-19.18%
08/02/2017	31.44%

At least the recent trend is WS is consistently off by only double-digits!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Some comical FUD...."the Street" headline is: "Elon Musk Launches New Attack Against GM and Joe Biden". After drama build up, the article finally shows the "attack":

https://twitter.com/x/status/1549440612021243906

Then, only in the last paragraph clears up some genuine facts about Barra "leading". Article is by Luc Olinga if interested, not posting the link...

Luc "I use Tesla Killer in my headlines whenever i can to generate clicks" Olinga

 

[Drezil]

Paying the highest prices in Western Europe with the highest Co2 emissions doesn’t seem like much of a success to me…

As said. The policy changed after 2004 when we got the neocon/socialcon-government instead of the social-green one preventing further expansion and even rolling back changes in some areas.

in short: 16 years wasted.

 

[SOULPEDL]

View attachment 830613

"Preproduction" Berlin MY being sold in Norway?

Collector cars... finally something to distinguish them!

With all Tesla's looking the same, what's going to be the collectors? Orange Glass Roof on the older 3s? Chucks original FSD tester car?
Then there's the others like the Mach-e. So maybe that one's a new collector next to a fully restored '67 Mustang - in Jay Leno's Garage. (So we can all talk about it later on.)

 

[WADan]

Tesla Model Y dominated the used car market in June

Used Tesla Model Y vehicles dominated the used car market in June despite increased prices, according to a study.

www.teslarati.com

No need for further proof that demand is way high!

 

[jim0266]

Saw my first Rivian here in rural NH a few days ago too during a run. Also saw a polestar a couple weeks ago.

I participated in an EV show a few months back. A Rivian was parked next to my Model 3. The Rivian generated a lot of traffic and interest at the show. Parked on my other side was Model 3 SN 1701 (Starship Enterprise!), which was apparently purchased by General Motors Design Center in Warren, Michigan.

 

[JustMe]

Imagine the earnings report if Tesla sold Bitcoin off before the drop, avoiding or lessening a $450M impairment

It may be unlikely but it sure would be nifty and I imagine tomorrow would be off the charts.

There’s usually a surprise of some kind in the ER. This is the one I’m rooting for.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

We need to be up 10% AH today just to make up for what we should have been up so far this week. Well played shorts..., well played.

Yup……

I sure hope everyone is ready for an extremely annoying day tomorrow if Tesla beats on earnings. 10% up in the morning, likely ending the day up a meager 1-2%. Macros are primed for a down day tomorrow.

Fun fact….let’s say Tesla naturally does GAAP EPS of $2 and then recognized FSD deferred revenue to add another 500 million to take it to $2.5 GAAP. It’s would take TSLA’s TTM PE down to around 73. Amazon’s current TTM PE is 57.

Now let’s compare Amazon’s growth over the next year to Tesla’s……….

 

[tivoboy]

Doing some research, German CO2 emissions per KWh are the second highest in Western Europe, only beaten by the Dutch and only slightly better than the USA.

Carbon intensity of electricity generation

Carbon intensity is measured in grams of carbon dioxide-equivalents emitted per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated.

ourworldindata.org

549g China
527g Australia
488g Singapore
461g Japan
442g South Korea
386g Netherlands
379g United States
364g Germany
363g Greece
361g Ireland
341g Italy
268g United Kingdom
240g Denmark
223g Portugal
194g Spain
184g Luxembourg
156g Belgium
153g Finland
149g New Zealand
145g Austria
124g Canada
68g France
59g Switzerland
44g Sweden
29g Iceland
26g Norway

Considering that Germany is now restarting coal plants (/)to replace the lost German gas and the six nuclear plants its shutting down, co2 emissions per KWh will certainly rise to well over 400g per KWh this year and next year (It was 497 in Germany in 2002).

Germany’s recent growth hasn’t been too impressive either, here is solar generation (source BP global energy outlook)… compare Germany to China, the US or even Japan from 2015 to now:

View attachment 830616

Paying the highest prices in Western Europe with the highest Co2 emissions doesn’t seem like much of a success to me…

Interesting why India wouldn’t be included in your charts, being clearly the largest largest contributor?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Paying the highest prices in Western Europe with the highest Co2 emissions doesn’t seem like much of a success to me…

Well they already had the highest prices and co2 prior to the transition. You're also discounting the return they get for that high cost.

As mentioned up thread, industrial energy buyers are expempt from transition related costs. They just pay wholesale.l, which is now miniscule compared to pre-transition. This kept domestic I dustry humming and jobs flowing all the way through the Great Recession. Unemployment never crossed 4%.

And then there's the tiny bit about Germany's transition single-handedly scaling the global markets for wind and solar. Yes, anyone could have done the same thing......they didn't. I give a lot of respect to a nation who took on the ENTIRE COST of scaling these markets themselves, and took wind and solar costs down 90% quite rapidly.

These impacts are subtle, but world changing. There'd be zero wind or solar in Texas right now without Germany's transition. We would've likely had to wait til China made a move in 2005 if Germany hadn't moved in 1998.

You see numbers on a spreadsheet, I see a world with scaled renewables that was by no means a foregone conclusion back when the Germans crafted the Energiewende.

 

[dm28997]

If BTC rises to $100000 how will that effect earnings

 

[MadScientist23]

Imagine the earnings report if Tesla sold Bitcoin off before the drop, avoiding or lessening a $450M impairment

It may be unlikely but it sure would be nifty and I imagine tomorrow would be off the charts.

There’s usually a surprise of some kind in the ER. This is the one I’m rooting for.

You know this is really a short term outlook on things. I don't want them to have done that. Honestly I don't see BTC going any lower and will likely rise at a higher Beta than the main macro market. This being the case you solidify the losses by the stop loss selling, as opposed to eating a little bit on the books (purely a paperwork exercise), and hold for higher prices for sale in the future. I know Elon has longer scale thinking and I hope he's using that in this case.